Agricultural Systems最新文献

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Characterization of greenhouse gas emissions and water requirement of farmland in China's main grain-producing areas under future climate scenarios
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104293
Yuxin Yang , Yihe Tang , Shikun Sun , Zemin Yang , Siya Wang , Peng Zhang , Yubao Wang
{"title":"Characterization of greenhouse gas emissions and water requirement of farmland in China's main grain-producing areas under future climate scenarios","authors":"Yuxin Yang ,&nbsp;Yihe Tang ,&nbsp;Shikun Sun ,&nbsp;Zemin Yang ,&nbsp;Siya Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Zhang ,&nbsp;Yubao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Addressing the key challenges that climate change posed by agricultural sustainability requires special attention to greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural water use. Differences among crops and regions significantly affect the water‑carbon characteristics of grain production to climate change. However, the mechanisms underlying this impact and its assessment at high resolution over long timescales remain insufficiently understood.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVES</h3><div>This study aims to estimate the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (cGHG) and water requirement of maize, rice, and wheat under different climate scenarios in China's major grain-producing areas from 2021 to 2100, and to quantify their temporal and spatial variation characteristics.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Based on the future climate data of six global climate models (GCMs) under the CMIP6, this study used the calibrated the Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) model and the improved Penman-Monteith formula to quantify the GHG emission and water requirements during the growth period of maize, rice, and wheat under three societal development scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 from 2021 to 2100.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The result showed that the parameterized DNDC model performed well in the study area, with a yeild R<sup>2</sup> of 0.98 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 247.25 kg/ha. Under multiple emission scenarios, the cGHG of maize and wheat showed a significant downward trend over time, while the cGHG of rice increased. The emission hotspots were mainly concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The water requirement (ET<sub>c</sub>) of the three crops increased significantly with time and showed a reverse pattern with the spatial distribution of cGHG. The high ET<sub>c</sub> values areas were concentrated in the central part of the study area and the western part of Inner Mongolia, and the water deficit was also the most serious.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study clarifies long-term trends and spatial variations in water‑carbon fluxes, providing essential data to inform climate adaptation strategies in agriculture, water conservation efforts, and emissions reduction initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104293"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143518932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combining system thinking and scenario building to visualize strategic futures for agricultural systems: The case of La Araucanía, Chile
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104290
Jaime Sanhueza-Aros , Fernando Peña-Cortés , Amor Ariza-Álvarez , Julio A. Soria-Lara
{"title":"Combining system thinking and scenario building to visualize strategic futures for agricultural systems: The case of La Araucanía, Chile","authors":"Jaime Sanhueza-Aros ,&nbsp;Fernando Peña-Cortés ,&nbsp;Amor Ariza-Álvarez ,&nbsp;Julio A. Soria-Lara","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Conventional planning approaches at the regional scale are often based on forecasts or citizen consultations that assume the extrapolation of variables or trends, which is insufficient in complex and highly uncertain environments. However, integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight can be particularly useful for understanding, imagining, and planning complex territorial systems.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This article develops a strategic scenario around the current and future dynamics of the agricultural system of La Araucanía, Chile.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The method was implemented in two stages: (1) analysis of system dynamics and selection of drivers of change, and (2) elaboration of the strategic scenario involving 14 experts.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The main results show how to integrate drivers of change and feedback and balance loops into the scenario narrative, which significantly improves the effectiveness of the visioning phase by combining systemic thinking techniques. In addition, three relevant methodological issues are identified for further discussion: (1) integration of system thinking and strategic foresight, (2) expert involvement, and (3) future planning of productive systems.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study underscores the importance of integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight as a relevant option to support the transition towards sustainable productive systems. Integration allows the reorientation of strategies based on data and causal loop analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104290"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The subsidy-mosaic for agricultural weather insurance in Germany
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104289
Jonas Schmitt , Frank Offermann , Robert Finger
{"title":"The subsidy-mosaic for agricultural weather insurance in Germany","authors":"Jonas Schmitt ,&nbsp;Frank Offermann ,&nbsp;Robert Finger","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104289","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104289","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The subsidisation of agricultural weather insurance is gaining momentum in European agriculture, with the aim of increasing farmers' self-responsibility and eliminating the need for ad hoc disaster payments. The implementation and design of agricultural weather insurance subsidies vary considerably from country to country. We show here that in Germany there are even fundamental differences within the country due to the different weather insurance subsidy schemes of the federal states. For example, some federal states do not subsidise weather insurance, and other federal states that do subsidise weather insurance, differ in which crops or perils are supported. This insurance subsidy mosaic increases inequality across farms and is likely to increase the cost of insurance. In addition, small federal-state-specific insurance markets are less attractive to insurance companies, which has a negative impact on competition among insurance companies and innovation in insurance products. We conclude that harmonised approaches to insurance support that incentivise on-farm risk management and adaptation to climate change are needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104289"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can trees and their associated organisms still benefit arable crops in the presence of pesticide use?
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104292
Colin R. Tosh , Jo Smith
{"title":"Can trees and their associated organisms still benefit arable crops in the presence of pesticide use?","authors":"Colin R. Tosh ,&nbsp;Jo Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Trees growing in and around the field (agroforestry) attract a range of organisms and empirical studies indicate that these are overall beneficial to the arable crop. A recently modelling study of English organic silvoarable using a new approach based on Boolean regulatory network modelling supported this conclusion.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Here we develop this model further to consider the impact of pesticide use on the benefits trees can bring to crops through living interactions.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Pests in the model agroecosystem are selectively and non-selectively removed from the agroecosystem under a range of intervention thresholds to simulate pesticide use, and the benefits of trees quantified and compared to benefits accrued under a baseline treatment of no pesticide use.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Selective interventions for crop disease and crop insects (pests and non-target natural enemies) dramatically reduce the benefits of trees, even at relatively high intervention thresholds. Intervention for crop weeds increases the benefits of trees, as weeds are often considered a burden associated with tree understories. Less selective, double interventions (weed-disease, weed-pest-natural enemy, disease-pest-natural enemy) all reduce the benefits of trees, but the weed-pest-natural enemy intervention least so. Unsurprisingly, removing all living associates of trees renders trees of no benefit to crop yield through biotic mechanisms but, more surprisingly, this conclusion applies when intervention thresholds are high and delayed to late in the growing season.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Caution is urged in the interpretation of model findings but this study provides a first guide to how pesticide use in agroforestry systems modulates the benefits of trees. These findings may be particularly useful to growers in the increasingly popular area of regenerative agriculture which permits restrained and selective use of pesticides.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104292"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multivariate analysis of economic performance and environmental impacts of multispecies pastured livestock farms using direct marketing
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104276
Pascal Genest-Richard , Caroline Halde , Isabelle Breune , Patrick Mundler , Nicolas Devillers
{"title":"Multivariate analysis of economic performance and environmental impacts of multispecies pastured livestock farms using direct marketing","authors":"Pascal Genest-Richard ,&nbsp;Caroline Halde ,&nbsp;Isabelle Breune ,&nbsp;Patrick Mundler ,&nbsp;Nicolas Devillers","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Worldwide, the livestock sector was found to be an important contributor to climate change, resource use, health, and pollution issues. In the Global North, the growing interest in alternative food networks and short supply chains has reached the livestock sector, within which we find an increasing number of farms raising multi-species herds on pasture and marketing their products directly to the end consumer.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The objective of this study was to assess the economic performance and environmental impacts of multispecies pastured livestock farms using direct marketing, a farm model that can be considered novel and alternative when compared to large-scale specialized livestock operations.</div></div><div><h3>METHOD</h3><div>From a sample of 15 multispecies pastured livestock farms using direct marketing in Québec, we conducted a principal component analysis according to farm structure, economic and environmental indicators. We subsequently divided the farms in three groups using hierarchical clustering and compared them through an analysis of variance.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Farms grouped in the Intensive cluster had a high animal load and high proportion of monogastric animals to which they fed purchased grain feed. This reliance on imported feed had negative economic and environmental impacts. Farms in the Extensive cluster supplemented a traditional cow-calf farming model with purchased weaners for seasonal finishing, thus presenting low animal densities and low environmental impacts. Other animal species were added to the herd to serve their direct-marketing clients, making for overall strong economic performances. Some farms in the Thrifty cluster produced crops, which helped lower their environmental impacts through manure cycling and economically diversify their activities. These farms had better resource optimization strategies and added value to their products though some level of processing on the farm.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>While all farms dedicated a certain amount of land to pasture or forage production, multispecies pastured livestock systems using direct marketing in Québec are not fully integrated crop-livestock systems. Farms with crop production activities, even when unrelated to their livestock operation, appeared to benefit from some level of integration between their crop and livestock productions in the form of a reduction of their environmental impacts through nutrient cycling by manure disposal on pasture. Farms with a higher animal density and higher proportion of monogastric animals fed purchased grain feed ran the risk of both causing negative environmental impacts and reducing their economic performances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104276"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring intentions to convert into organic farming in small-scale agriculture: Social embeddedness in extended theory of planned behaviour framework
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104294
Bazyli Czyżewski, Agnieszka Poczta-Wajda, Anna Matuszczak, Katarzyna Smędzik-Ambroży, Marta Guth
{"title":"Exploring intentions to convert into organic farming in small-scale agriculture: Social embeddedness in extended theory of planned behaviour framework","authors":"Bazyli Czyżewski,&nbsp;Agnieszka Poczta-Wajda,&nbsp;Anna Matuszczak,&nbsp;Katarzyna Smędzik-Ambroży,&nbsp;Marta Guth","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The European Union actively supports and promotes the development of more sustainable and resilient farming systems and contributes to the significant expansion of organic farming. Despite the considerable growth of the organic agricultural sector, this process faces several structural challenges, especially in countries with fragmented agriculture, such as Romania, where small-scale farming dominates. Small-scale farmers are quite reluctant to transition to organic farming even despite financial incentives.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to understand small-scale farmers' reluctance to adopt organic farming by combining embeddedness theory, which links economic activities to social structures, with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>A survey of 150 small-scale farms in Romania's Centru region was conducted in 2023 using semi-structured face-to-face questionnaires. The research framework combines embeddedness theory and the extended TPB using structural equation modelling and simultaneous confirmatory factor analysis.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>It was demonstrated that network embeddedness exerts the most significant influence on pro-environmental behavioural intentions when considered in the context of other TPB constructs. However, this positive impact is partially offset by the negative impact of embeddedness at the farm level. Our research results suggest that changing the approach of small-scale farmers to organic farming requires strengthening network embeddedness through workshops, training sessions, rallies, and meetings that would highlight the benefits of organic farming.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>We shed more light on the behavioural drivers of adopting organic practices in small-scale framing and argue that the relational embeddedness construct represents a significant extension of the TPB framework for agri-environmental studies. Hence, our study highlights the necessity of relational and behavioural insights in understanding and transforming agricultural systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104294"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying water use in New Zealand's dairy food system: A baseline for future sustainability
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104272
Nicole A. Cameron, Rebecca A.M. Peer
{"title":"Quantifying water use in New Zealand's dairy food system: A baseline for future sustainability","authors":"Nicole A. Cameron,&nbsp;Rebecca A.M. Peer","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>In New Zealand, the dairy sector is a critical food system, contributing substantially to the nation's economy and supplying about 3 % of the world's dairy products. Despite this, a detailed assessment of water use across the sector has yet to be completed.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study addresses this gap by systematically quantifying blue (consumptive) and green (effective rainfall) water use in New Zealand's dairy sector up to primary processing.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using a regionally-specific approach, publicly available data were collected to calculate consented and actual water use for irrigation on dairy farms, and processing facilities nationwide. On-farm water use for stock drinking and milking sheds was calculated using region-specific values for irrigated and non-irrigated farms combined with the latest stock numbers. High-resolution climate data and land use data were combined to calculate green water use.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>In total, the dairy sector is responsible for approximately 20 % (2.46 billion m<sup>3</sup> per year) of total consumptive (blue) water use in the country, over 90 % of which is driven by irrigation, and 80 % is sourced from surface water. Effective rainfall represents almost 80 % of total water use in the system (9.63 billion m<sup>3</sup>). Water use varies substantially across core dairy regions with consumptive water intensities ranging from 7.5 L/ha of dairy land in Canterbury to 0.15 L/ha in Waikato, despite both regions contributing majorly to the dairy sector.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Understanding current water consumption and anticipating climate-induced changes are crucial for addressing the water supply-demand imbalance in New Zealand's dairy industry and ensuring the continued resilience of the food system. This work provides the most recent detailed estimate of the water quantity account, providing a platform for further analysis of the water dependence for the primary sector, comparison with other dairy-intensive countries, and more precise estimates for global studies on the water use of food systems and trade.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104272"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143436798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing farmers' agency is a more effective extension paradigm: The case of soil health management in Africa
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104267
Chima Rickards , Paswel Marenya , Mazvita Chiduwa , Anton Eitzinger , Monica Fisher , Sieglinde Snapp
{"title":"Enhancing farmers' agency is a more effective extension paradigm: The case of soil health management in Africa","authors":"Chima Rickards ,&nbsp;Paswel Marenya ,&nbsp;Mazvita Chiduwa ,&nbsp;Anton Eitzinger ,&nbsp;Monica Fisher ,&nbsp;Sieglinde Snapp","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Climate change, volatile markets, and local resource variability pose significant challenges to sustainable agricultural development, particularly in soil health management. Despite extensive scientific research, the adoption of soil health solutions (SHS) among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low, highlighting a gap between research and practical implementation.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>To explore the role of farmer agency in enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural extension models, with a focus on soil health management. The paper aims to demonstrate how empowering farmers to innovate and adapt both local and scientific knowledge can lead to more efficient and sustainable agricultural systems.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>This paper presents a review and perspective on the importance of farmer agency in sustainable soil management and agriculture extension more generally. It examines current limitations in research and extension systems, discusses the need for hyper-localisation of soil health practices, and proposes solutions for integrating farmer agency into agricultural development programmes.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The review identifies several factors that enhance farmer agency, including education, economic opportunities, social networks, and supportive policies. It concludes that fostering farmer agency is crucial for improving soil health outcomes and driving sustainable agricultural transformation. The paper proposes guiding principles for policies and programmes aimed at elevating farmer decision-making power, including farmer-centred learning platforms, digital tools, and initiatives that strengthen social capital within farming communities.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This perspective highlights the critical role of farmer agency in bridging the gap between scientific research and practical implementation of sustainable soil management practices. By emphasising the importance of empowering farmers as autonomous decision-makers, the paper provides a framework for more effective agricultural extension and development programming. This approach has the potential to significantly improve the adoption and adaptation of SHS, leading to more sustainable and resilient agricultural systems in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104267"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143436799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Which types of quantitative foresight scenarios to frame the future of food systems? A review
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104270
Anton Riera, Océane Duluins, Clémentine Antier, Philippe V. Baret
{"title":"Which types of quantitative foresight scenarios to frame the future of food systems? A review","authors":"Anton Riera,&nbsp;Océane Duluins,&nbsp;Clémentine Antier,&nbsp;Philippe V. Baret","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Quantitative scenarios have become common tools to explore the evolution of agricultural and food systems and their necessary transition towards greater sustainability. Yet, despite the diversity in methods and questions explored, a notable gap remains in methodically categorizing such scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVES</h3><div>Through reviewing a broad range of studies, this paper aims to address this gap. It pursues two main objectives: (1) proposing a comprehensive typology classification of distinctive scenario types; (2) delving into the practical implications that diverse scenario designs bring to the forefront.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Based on a snowball sampling method, 36 quantitative food system scenario studies were included in the sample and reviewed. A coding process allowed to characterize each scenario based on a set of variables focused on the scenarios' design process (e.g. purpose of the scenarios, number of scenarios tested, scale of analysis, consideration of production systems, sectors of interest, considered sustainability dimensions, etc.). Typology identification involved two iterative rounds of discussion among the authors, based on variables deemed pivotal for distinguishing scenario types.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The paper proposes four scenario types of quantitative food system scenarios, centered on the scenarios' purpose and design process. Scenario types A and B are more normative as they seek to demonstrate the feasibility of a specific scenario or frame the conditions for its feasibility, differing in the number of scenarios tested (respectively one and many). Scenario types C and D are more exploratory as they aim to assess the consequences of different scenarios, differing in the number of scenario variables being explored (respectively one and many). Besides the proposed classification, the paper discusses important methodological considerations related to scenario design (e.g. the consideration of multiple sustainability dimensions, the adoption of participatory approaches, etc.).</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This paper contributes to enhancing coherence across food system foresight studies and helps to ensure that quantitative scenarios are utilized effectively for their intended purposes, such as assessing the feasibility of achieving a goal or evaluating different options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104270"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A mass balance model to predict the fate of copper and zinc in pig farming systems to reduce environmental impacts: Application to French context
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学
Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104274
Emma Gourlez , Christine Baratte , Francine de Quelen , Jean-Yves Dourmad , Alessandra Rigo Monteiro , Florence Garcia-Launay , Ludovic Brossard , Fabrice Beline
{"title":"A mass balance model to predict the fate of copper and zinc in pig farming systems to reduce environmental impacts: Application to French context","authors":"Emma Gourlez ,&nbsp;Christine Baratte ,&nbsp;Francine de Quelen ,&nbsp;Jean-Yves Dourmad ,&nbsp;Alessandra Rigo Monteiro ,&nbsp;Florence Garcia-Launay ,&nbsp;Ludovic Brossard ,&nbsp;Fabrice Beline","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Although copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) are essential for pig health, they also represent an environmental risk. A better understanding of the influence of feeding and manure management practices on Cu and Zn flows is required to optimise the whole pig farming system.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>For this purpose, a model was built to predict Cu and Zn flows from the feed to the spread products to be able to account for the influence of swine production and manure management.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>The parameters used to model Cu and Zn flows during the treatments were mainly obtained from the literature and, when not available, based on expert knowledge. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical parameters and to select sets of parameters to quantify uncertainty of the results.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION</h3><div>The use of feed containing only 15 and 80 mg/kg feed of Cu and Zn, respectively, would allow to reduce Cu and Zn contents in stored raw manure of 41 and 36 %, respectively, compared to the use of feed with current EU regulations. However, concentrations of Cu and Zn relative to DM in effluents increase with the application of effluent treatments. Feed is therefore the most effective lever for reducing Cu and Zn concentrations in organic fertilisers from swine systems, and will directly influence manure concentrations before and after treatments.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This work will allow to better understand and control the flows and concentrations of Cu and Zn in organic fertilisers and to develop strategies that improve manure management and use of pig manure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 104274"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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