Agricultural Systems最新文献

{"title":"The environmental trade-off of fertiliser, residue and catch crop management in Danish cropping systems","authors":"Meshach Ojo Aderele ,&nbsp;Edwin Haas ,&nbsp;Andrew Smerald ,&nbsp;Gitte Blicher-Mathiesen ,&nbsp;Klaus Butterbach-Bahl ,&nbsp;Jaber Rahimi","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104433","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104433","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Nitrogen is an essential macronutrient in agriculture, affecting both crop yields and soil health. In Denmark, one of the most densely farmed regions in the world, excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) compounds are lost to the environment along gaseous and hydrological pathways in forms such as nitrate, ammonia, nitrogen oxides and dinitrogen.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Here, we aim to assess the effect of different field management practices (fertilisation, crop residue management or cultivation of catch crops) on environmental Nr losses and the field scale soil net GHG balance (i.e., sum of soil C stock changes and direct and indirect N₂O emissions).</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>For this purpose, highly detailed data from the Danish Agricultural Watershed Monitoring Program (LOOP-program; 2013–2019) were used in combination with the process-based model LandscapeDNDC.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>The results indicate that a mixture of organic and synthetic fertilisers turns soils to a stronger net sink of GHGs (∼70 – ∼514 kgCO₂₋eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) compared to exclusive use of only one type of fertiliser. In addition, incorporating crop residue and cultivation of catch crops increases the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) by 3–11 % on average and decreases environmental Nr losses.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>These findings emphasize the potential of targeted fertiliser, residue and catch crop management to increase the sustainability of crop production systems in Denmark.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104433"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does scale matter? How local sourcing affects land use for circular food systems in the Netherlands","authors":"Durk W. Tamsma ,&nbsp;Antonius G.T. Schut ,&nbsp;Martin K. van Ittersum ,&nbsp;Benjamin van Selm ,&nbsp;Corina E. van Middelaar ,&nbsp;Imke J.M. de Boer","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Understanding the potential and impacts of closing resource loops on different spatial scales requires a food systems approach with local context of the biophysical production environment and food demand.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>We investigated how local sourcing of food affects land use and land use patterns in a circular food system in the Netherlands.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We used the food systems optimization model FOODSOM, along with site specific crop yields for a range of food and feed crops, and compared scenarios with varying levels of food self-sufficiency of Dutch provinces.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Without restrictions on local sourcing, the Dutch population could be fed a healthy diet using 54 % of current agricultural land, increasing by ∼50.000 ha to 57 % when sourcing 90 % of consumed food locally within each province. Increasing provincial (local) sourcing shifted land use in the Netherlands from high yielding clay and sandy soils in provinces with low population density, to less suitable peat and wet soils in provinces with a high population density. The total land requirement for the Netherlands remained stable up to 50 % of local sourcing, as this could be achieved for all provinces while avoiding lower yielding soils.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>We show that there is sufficient land to meet food requirements of a healthy diet in the Netherlands. Circularity at the provincial scale requires the use of less suitable land, but only slightly increases total land use area, owing to the high fertility and relatively small yield differences across the country. In countries with larger yield differences between soils, local sourcing would increase land use more drastically. The targeted degree of local sourcing may also depend on how the additional land use affects net greenhouse gas and nutrient emissions and biodiversity when compared to more transport and production elsewhere.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104436"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing extensive pasture-based beef production in South Africa under future climate change conditions","authors":"Christopher Magona ,&nbsp;Abubeker Hassen ,&nbsp;Eyob Tesfamariam ,&nbsp;Michael Mengistu ,&nbsp;Carina Visser ,&nbsp;Simon Oosting ,&nbsp;Aart van der Linden","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104431","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;CONTEXT&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Assessing the impact of climate change on extensive pasture-based beef production across varied agro-ecological regions is crucial for designing customized adaptation measures.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;OBJECTIVE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study assesses the effects of climate change on extensive pasture-based beef production systems in three South African agro-ecological regions (Bloemfontein, Phalaborwa and Buffalo Berlin) under two climate change scenarios, namely the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;METHODS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The LiGAPS-Beef model, previously calibrated for the region, was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on beef cattle production under pasture-based extensive systems. Four breed types, namely &lt;em&gt;Bos taurus&lt;/em&gt;, Composite, &lt;em&gt;Zebu indicine&lt;/em&gt; and Sanga cattle were included in this study. Genetic parameters for each breed were obtained from SA Stud Book, Livestock Registering Federation (LRF) and literature. Measured historical weather data was obtained from the South African Weather Service for the three agro-ecological regions. An ensemble of eight regional climate model (RCA4) simulations from the CORDEX Africa initiative was used to generate future climate change projection data for the period 2036–2065 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future nutritional composition data for forage was collected from studies that simulated and predicted future forage quality under climate change conditions.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;RESULTS AND CONCLUSION&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The study found that the baseline average daily gain (ADG) was significantly higher (0.40 kg/head/day) than the simulated RCP 4.5 (0.21 kg/head/day, −48 %) and RCP 8.5 (0.20 kg/head/day, −51 %) ADGs regardless of breed type when both feed quality and feed quantity limited growth. Although the effect of the climate change scenarios on beef production was agro-ecological region dependent, the performance of &lt;em&gt;Bos taurus&lt;/em&gt; declined more than other breeds under future climate scenarios while the Sanga and the Composite types were the most resilient, especially in hot climate areas. Model simulations predict that future climate change will have a greater negative impact on cattle in Buffalo Berlin and Phalaborwa, while those in Bloemfontein will be least affected. The study also highlights that under future climate change scenarios, pasture quality will be the key factor influencing cattle growth in Bloemfontein and Buffalo Berlin, while pasture quantity will be the dominant factor in Phalaborwa if stocking rates remain unchanged. The study highlights the need for nutritional and pasture management interventions for pasture-based extensive system (e.g., feed supplementation, adjusting the stocking rate to match pasture availability, identifying and integrating drought and/or heat tolerant ecotypes, fodder trees that provide shade for the animals) to mitigate the expected decline in beef cattle performance in South Afri","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104431"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic estimates of drought-induced yield loss in the Southeastern United States","authors":"C. Prakash Khedun ,&nbsp;Clement D.D. Sohoulande","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Drought is an insidious climate hazard. It has devastating impacts on rainfed agriculture: loss in yield threatens food security, affects farmers, and have serious socio-economic ramifications. Their multifaceted impacts on agriculture, crop yield, food production, and the economy are often irreversible. The frequency and severity of drought events are increasing as the climate changes. Therefore, a better understanding of their effects is needed to mitigate their impacts on water and food security.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>Here, a probabilistic approach is employed to assess the potential threat that drought poses to four major cash crops in the Southeastern United States: corn, cotton, peanuts, and soybeans.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Copula is used to model the dependence, at the county level, between the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and crop yield. Drought-induced yield loss, for each county, is quantified and the joint probability as well as the conditional probability of yield loss given an impending drought is calculated to identify counties that are most vulnerable.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>Drought characteristics significantly affect yield: corn was the most vulnerable, whereas the loss incurred by the other crops were less severe. Further, counties in South Georgia suffered relatively lower losses, which may be attributed to the adoption of irrigation practices following the 2005/06 drought.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>This study demonstrates the detrimental effect of drought on rainfed agriculture, underscoring the need for comprehensive drought management strategies. The methodology employed in this study can be incorporated into a dashboard or decision support system that farmers, planners, and economists can use to make informed decisions based on the potential risks that drought poses to their counties and state, and thus develop adequate mitigation plans, including the estimation of insurance and compensation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104418"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Selection of slaughterhouse to deliver fattened pigs depending on growth curves","authors":"Yun Bao ,&nbsp;Pol Llagostera ,&nbsp;Daniel Babot ,&nbsp;Lluís M. Plà-Aragonès","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104406","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context:</h3><div>Modern fattening farms require effective interdisciplinary decision-making tools to ensure profitability.</div></div><div><h3>Objective:</h3><div>This paper introduces a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) - based decision tool, to optimize the transportation strategy selecting the most profitable slaughterhouse and exploring the impact of key factors such as pig prices, feed costs, and mortality rates.</div></div><div><h3>Methods:</h3><div>The proposed tool is based on a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, the pig growth modeling by Gompertz model and the payment grid of different slaughterhouses.</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions:</h3><div>Our findings confirm the selection of the most suitable slaughterhouse significantly enhances the economic outcome, and that the current increment in slaughter weight to about 120 kg leads to a larger fattening period. Piglet mortality did not affect the optimal delivery plan but: for every 1% increase in mortality rate, there was a loss of 0.9 ct €/kg. In addition, four growth curves fit from experimental data are used to compare their optimal marketing strategies. The base case scenario outperformed the official profits reported to the sector by 12.49 ct €/kg liveweight. Pigs with low growth generated losses of -0.42 ct €/kg while medium growth pigs with 4.24 ct €/kg outperformed higher growth pigs (1.29 ct €/kg). The feeding cost advantage makes medium-growth pigs more profitable. The optimal fattening period was 22 weeks except for medium growth pigs (which was from 20 to 21 weeks).</div></div><div><h3>Significance:</h3><div>With the rise of digital farms and precision livestock farming, Decision Support Systems (DSS) based on accurate growth curves plays a key role in slaughterhouse selection and developing effective marketing strategy, outperforming industry averages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104406"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lessons learned from a detailed exploration of APEX as a tool to represent corn residue management and cover crops","authors":"Carlos Alberto Arnillas,&nbsp;Lamees Shah,&nbsp;George Arhonditsis","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>Agricultural management practices to improve the regulation of water, sediments, or nutrients, make farming decisions and operations more complex. This extra complexity often stems from the use of multiple species and farm heterogeneity so that species can complement each other, and different fields (and the space between fields) can provide alternative benefits, like biomass or nutrient regulation. Mechanistic crop and farm models provide tools to explore the effect of these practices.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>The study goal was to assess the capability of a mechanistic crop model (the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender Model, APEX) to represent the impacts of cover crops and corn residue on plant growth, water, erosion, and nutrient flow.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using Southern Ontario conditions, a simplistic corn–cover crop rotation strategy was implemented using APEX and hundreds of variables dynamically updated by the model were analyzed. The model's documentation and source code were analyzed to understand the connections among the variables.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The model reproduced corn and cover crop growth patterns observed in Southern Ontario and the positive effects of cover crops and residue on water, sediments, and nutrient control. The model suggested that these practices generate important differences in nutrient dynamics and patterns of vertical accumulation of soil nutrients. Issues with the model are reported and ways to avoid them discussed. There were inconsistencies and unrealistic responses in the outputs when simulating two crops growing together or multiple fields, including small mass balance discrepancies, which —in complex numerical models like APEX— can generate hard-to-track differences and may be amplified when multiple fields are simulated over several years. Users should be aware of these limitations when assessing the role of diversified farming practices.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>The results highlight the importance of carefully reviewing the internal consistency of mechanistic models beyond validating a few key outputs, especially when the intended use of a model is to extrapolate the impacts to novel conditions or to infer processes not directly validated. These findings could open the conversation for more robust modelling and validating approaches when using crop models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104423"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel approach to accelerate ideotyping using model-aided envirotyping","authors":"Brian Collins ,&nbsp;Najeeb Ullah ,&nbsp;Youhong Song ,&nbsp;Keith G. Pembleton","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104430","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;CONTEXT&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Climate change threatens wheat production by intensifying drought, heat stress, and yield instability. Selecting optimal cultivars is crucial for mitigating climate change impacts. Crop model-assisted ideotyping, i.e., designing and/or selecting for traits that maximise yield or quality under defined conditions, requires exploring a large number of genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions but is computationally demanding. This is where envirotyping, i.e., categorising environments into a few environment types (ETs), emerges as a promising solution. Integrating envirotyping with ideotyping enhances breeding efficiency and enables targeted trait optimisation. This scalable, data-driven approach supports the development of climate-resilient wheat cultivars suited to diverse and changing environments.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;OBJECTIVE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Show how an innovative approach leveraging envirotyping can significantly cut down the computational demands of ideotyping, while still maintaining yield improvements. This approach offers a scalable framework for developing resilient crop cultivars tailored to diverse and changing environments.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;METHODS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Using the next generation of Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM Next Generation), wheat growth and development was simulated across diverse Australian environments. Four commercial cultivars were simulated under multiple sowing dates to determine optimal sowing windows and highest-yielding cultivars for each location. Cluster analysis of water supply/demand ratios identified six ETs with distinct seasonal drought patterns. A genetic algorithm was used to optimise 14 key cultivar parameters influencing phenology, morphology, resource use, and yield components. Three ideotyping strategies—global, targeted at high-stress ETs, and location-specific—were assessed for their impact on average yield and yield stability.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The ideotyping strategies effectively reduced the occurrence frequency of late-season water stress. The identified ideotypes significantly improved average yield (∼18 %) and yield stability (up to 16 % reduction in coefficient of variation). Global and targeted ideotyping strategies outperformed location-specific approaches in enhancing broad adaptability. In these strategies, key traits influencing yield gains included low minimum leaf number, high grain potential size, high radiation use efficiency, low potential root water uptake rate, high stay-green, and high number of grains per gram of stem and spike biomass. Phenological traits and trait interactions were more influential in the location-specific strategy.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;SIGNIFICANCE&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study demonstrates the potential of model-assisted envirotyping to improve wheat breeding efficiency by reducing computational demands while maximising average yield and yield stability. Incorporating envirotyping into breeding wo","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104430"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato","authors":"Julius Juma Okello ,&nbsp;David R. Just ,&nbsp;Arjan Verschoor ,&nbsp;Chalmers Mulwa ,&nbsp;Mingcong Xie ,&nbsp;Sylvester Ojwang ,&nbsp;Sam Namanda ,&nbsp;Benard Yada ,&nbsp;Reuben Ssali ,&nbsp;Moses Bunsen Okim ,&nbsp;Janet Mwende Mutiso ,&nbsp;Srinivasulu Rajendran ,&nbsp;Hugo Campos","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104421"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unlocking the potential of foxtail millet: Spatial strategy and multiple benefits of expanding cultivation on marginal lands in China","authors":"Lingcen Liu,&nbsp;Junyi Zhang,&nbsp;Zhongxiao Sun,&nbsp;Qian Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>In the context of Healthy China strategy, nutritious coarse grains are gaining more and more recognition. However, the current production of foxtail millet is insufficient and lack of spatial planning to meet the consumption demands outlined in the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>This study aims to optimize foxtail millet cultivation by expanding production on marginal lands, ensuring staple food security while addressing agricultural transformation and improving public health in China.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>We analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in foxtail millet production in China from 2000 to 2020, using the GAEZ model to estimate its production potential. The model result was filtered using multivariate data to identify suitable regions for foxtail millet cultivation.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>The analysis revealed that foxtail millet cultivation is spatially concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, eastern Inner Mongolia, and the northeastern provinces. The potential planting area for foxtail millet is 2.38 million hectares, capable of producing 9.92 million tons in the study area, which can meet dietary consumption needs according to Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents. Utilizing marginal lands for foxtail millet cultivation could save 50 % of water and more than 60 % of fertilizer compared to maize, while generating approximately ¥29 billion in revenue for farmers.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>This study highlights the multiple benefits of foxtail millet in reducing land and water resources burden, promoting health, and increasing farmers' income. The findings provide spatially explicit solutions for optimizing coarse grain production and reasonable utilizing marginal land resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 104420"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting the performance of alternative sheep production systems grazing perennial pastures","authors":"Christine E. Storer ,&nbsp;Sosheel S. Godfrey ,&nbsp;Susan M. Robertson ,&nbsp;Michael A. Friend ,&nbsp;Karl Behrendt","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><div>Grazing enterprises employ a range of management strategies in rain-fed Australian sheep production systems, which alters both production potential and profitability. This research used a stochastic whole-farm simulation modelling methodology to assess the impact of six different management regimes on the long-term profitability of a model farm simulated from August 1971 to July 2018.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>We aimed to 1) compare the whole farm productivity and economics of the different sheep production systems, 2) identify the factors that were driving the differences between systems, and 3) determine if the profitability and ranking of systems changed in response to different market and environmental conditions.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>Stochastic simulation whole-farm modelling, combined AusFarm® biophysical simulation data, with forecasted @Risk modelling price time series data. The economic and financial performance of different sheep management systems were assessed using gross margins, cash flows, net present values (NPV), coefficient of variation (CoV) and cash flow modified internal rates of return (MIRR).</div></div><div><h3>Results and conclusions</h3><div>Decisions on the management of sheep system mating times, breed of ram, type of pasture grazed and retention of ewe lambs affected supplementary feeding costs as well as production of wool and meat. Production differences along with variation in prices received explained why the six sheep systems had significantly different economic gross margins and NPVs. The systems also had different risks in achieving economic returns. Higher economic returns were associated with higher risks of variable returns and lower returns with lower risk of variation. The earlier mated (February) and terminal systems did not perform economically as well as the later mated (April) systems, but were more reliable with lower risk. The winter lambing Merino system had the lowest gross margins and NPV, but also the lowest risk CoV and MIRR. Investment in additional lucerne pasture for early summer feed paid off with greater gross margins and NPV, but with highest risk CoV and MIRR that these economic returns may vary.</div></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><div>Modelling incorporating historical long-term price and production risk clarified the complex effects of sheep system management decisions on production and economic returns. The more basic gross margin analysis gave the same ranking of the different sheep production systems as the more complex NPV and MIRR. Potential economic effects and risks of variable returns can be understood by examining past variability in production and prices received (revenues) on gross margins then assessing expected risk of future variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"229 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}