{"title":"Unveiling immunity gaps and determining a suitable age for a third dose of the measles-containing vaccine: a strategic approach to accelerating measles elimination","authors":"Somya Mehra , Sajikapon Kludkleeb , Chutikarn Chaimayo , Pornsawan Leaungwutiwong , Saranath Lawpoolsri , Wirichada Pan-ngum , Kulkanya Chokephaibulkit , Thundon Ngamprasertchai","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In highly measles immunized countries, immunity gaps in adolescents and young adults are a key issue posing an obstacle to measles elimination. This study aims to identify the gaps by estimating the age-stratified probability of seropositivity, and to ascertain a suitable age for the administration of a third dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV3) to effectively fill these gaps.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We retrospectively obtained measles serological results from hospital setting among among individuals aged 13–39 years and developed a serocatalytic dynamic probability model, stratifying seropositivity due to vaccination or natural infection. We calibrated the model to age-stratified seropositivity data within a Bayesian setting using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. A scenario analysis to determine a suitable age for MCV3 administration was also performed.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The overall prevalence of measles seropositivity was 65.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.5–69.6). Posterior predictive curves for the age-stratified seroprevalence exhibited a decreasing trend from ages 13–20 years but an upward trend from 26 to 30 years. The age at which a given individual’s serostatus reached a 50% probability of seronegativity was found to be approximately 18–20 years depending on the annual measles force of infection.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Our findings highlight a significant measles immunity gap in young adults aged 20–26 years, posing an increased risk of transmission. A MCV3 at the age of 18–20 years potentially closes the gap and aids measles elimination programmes.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>This work was supported by <span>Faculty of Tropical Medicine</span> (MCTM, ICTM grant), <span>Mahidol University</span> (to T.N.) and APC fee was supported by <span>Mahidol University</span> (to T.N.). S.M. and W.P. were funded in whole, or in part, by the <span>Wellcome Trust</span> [Grant number <span><span>220211</span></span>]. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100523"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11732191/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142985528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why the STD/MSM labelling of mpox could backfire and set back global containment efforts?","authors":"Thekkumkara Surendran Anish , Anaswara Naveen , Reghukumar Aravind","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100517","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100517","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100517"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11665374/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rohini Dutta , Priyansh Nathani , Priti Patil , Rakhi Ghoshal , Shagun Tuli , Juul M. Bakker , Alex J. van Duinen , Nobhojit Roy , Adeline A. Boatin , Anita Gadgil
{"title":"State-wise variation and inequalities in caesarean delivery rates in India: analysis of the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–2021) data","authors":"Rohini Dutta , Priyansh Nathani , Priti Patil , Rakhi Ghoshal , Shagun Tuli , Juul M. Bakker , Alex J. van Duinen , Nobhojit Roy , Adeline A. Boatin , Anita Gadgil","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>India’s caesarean delivery (CD) rate of 21.5% suggests adequate national access to CD but may mask significant disparities. We examined variation in CD rates across states (geography), wealth, and health care sector (public versus private). We also aimed to determine relative inequality in CD rates across wealth quintiles.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The current study was a cross-sectional analysis of CD rates from the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–2021) disaggregated by asset-based household wealth quintiles for each state and by healthcare sector (public versus private). Data from 724,115 women aged 15–49 years across 28 states and eight union territories were analysed. Women who reported their most recent live birth within the past five years were included. Relative inequality was measured by comparing CD rates in the richest versus the poorest quintiles.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Disaggregating the national CD rate of 21.5% showed substantial variation in CD rate across states, ranging from 5.2% in Nagaland to 60.7% in Telangana and across wealth quintiles, ranging from 0% to 76.7% (Assam). CD facility rates were higher in private than public facilities across all wealth quintiles. Over two-thirds of states (69%) had at least twice the CD rate in the richest wealth quintile versus the poorest quintile. Relative inequality in CD rates between the richest and poorest was 5.3 nationally and was higher in public (4.0) versus private (1.4) facilities.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>The national CD rate in India masks complex geographical, wealth, and sector-related inequalities in CD utilisation. Accounting for these variations is imperative when interpreting national-level rates to better assess the equity in the distribution of CD services.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100512"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11665369/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rajiv Chowdhury , Aliya Naheed , Md Mostafa Monower , Sara Shahzad , Rubhana Raqib , Ishrat Tasmin , Sarah Spackman , Stephen Kaptoge , Lisa Pennells , Adam S. Butterworth , John Danesh , Emanuele Di Angelantonio
{"title":"Conventional and regionally distinctive risk factors for first-onset myocardial infarction: the Bangladesh Risk of Acute Vascular Events (BRAVE) case–control study","authors":"Rajiv Chowdhury , Aliya Naheed , Md Mostafa Monower , Sara Shahzad , Rubhana Raqib , Ishrat Tasmin , Sarah Spackman , Stephen Kaptoge , Lisa Pennells , Adam S. Butterworth , John Danesh , Emanuele Di Angelantonio","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>South Asians may be particularly susceptible to premature myocardial infarction (MI) owing both to conventional cardiovascular risk factors and practices distinctive to South Asia. Identifying modifiable risk factors for MI in these populations could inform prevention strategies. We have, therefore, studied conventional risk factors and other characteristics in relation to occurrence of first MI in Bangladesh.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In a case–control study involving 8133 first-onset MI cases and 8124 controls recruited in Bangladesh, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) for MI adjusted, for age, sex, smoking status, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, family history of MI, and LDL-cholesterol. We assessed the potential public health impact of risk factor modification using population attributable fractions (PAFs).</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The median (IQR) age of first MI was 53 (45–60) years. Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were 2.80 (2.57–3.05) for cigarette smoking, 2.17 (1.94–2.43) for family history of MI, 2.27 (2.07–2.48) for history of hypertension, 1.91 (1.72–2.13) for history of diabetes, and 1.53 (1.47–1.58) per 1-SD higher LDL-cholesterol. The highest PAFs (95% CIs) were with current cigarette smoking (49% [46%–52%]), higher LDL-cholesterol (31% [29%–33%]) and history of hypertension (15% [13%–16%]). As for regionally distinctive practices, ORs were 4.02 (3.13–5.17) with <em>biri/hukkah</em> smoking, 2.09 (1.52–2.87) with chewing tobacco, and 1.26 (1.05–1.51) with parental history of first-cousin marriage.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Our results confirm the relevance of several conventional risk factors to risk of first MI in Bangladesh, and identify associations with MI of practices distinctive to South Asia, including indigenous modes of tobacco consumption and parental first-cousin marriage. These findings suggest opportunities for cardiovascular disease prevention in Bangladesh that embrace both conventional and regionally distinctive risk factors.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>The BRAVE Study Coordinating Centre is underpinned by grants from the <span>British Heart Foundation</span>, <span>UK Medical Research Council and National Institute</span> for <span>Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre</span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100519"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11730263/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142985490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Déjà vu all over again? More of the same will not achieve the End TB 2030 targets on time","authors":"Swarup Sarkar , Reuben Granich","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100416","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article 100416"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141033364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The potential impact on tuberculosis of interventions to reduce undernutrition in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling analysis","authors":"Sandip Mandal , Vineet Bhatia , Anurag Bhargava , Suman Rijal , Nimalan Arinaminpathy","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Undernutrition is a major risk factor for TB incidence in the WHO South-East (SE) Asia Region. We examined the potential impact of addressing undernutrition as a preventive measure, for reducing TB burden in region.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We developed a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model, capturing undernutrition and its associated excess risk of TB, amongst countries in the Region. We simulated two types of interventions: (i) nutritional rehabilitation amongst all close contacts of TB patients, and (ii) an illustrative, population-wide scenario where 30% of people with undernutrition would be nutritionally rehabilitated each year. We also simulated this impact with additional measures to improve the TB care cascade.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The impact of nutritional interventions varies by country. For example, in India nutritional rehabilitation of 30% of undernourished population each year would avert 15.9% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 11.8–21.3) of cumulative incidence between 2023 and 2030, contrasting with 4.8% (95% UI 2.9–9.5) for Bhutan, which has only 10.9% prevalence of undernutrition. Reductions in cumulative mortality range from 11.6% (95% UI 8.2–17.1) for Bhutan, to 26.0% (95% UI 22.4–30.8) for India. Comparable incremental reductions in TB burden arise when combined with measures to improve the TB care cascade. Overall, nutritional interventions in the general population would increase incidence reductions by 2–3 fold, and mortality reductions by 5–6 fold, relative to targeting only contacts.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Nutritional interventions could cause substantial reductions in TB burden in the Region. Their health benefits extend well beyond TB, underlining their importance for public health.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article 100423"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141033749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Addressing the root causes: leveraging nutrition to accelerate the end of TB","authors":"Mohammed A. Yassin , Arvind Betigeri","doi":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100456","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lansea.2024.100456","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":75136,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article 100456"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143177289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}