{"title":"Evaluating housing quality policies in the United States: logistical and conceptual barriers. Schwartz and Chu respond to \"The importance and challenges of using natural experiments to evaluate the health effects of housing policy\".","authors":"Gabriel L Schwartz, Lela Chu","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf155","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Audrey Renson, Lina Montoya, Dana E Goin, Iván Díaz, Rachael K Ross
{"title":"Pulling back the curtain: the road from statistical estimand to machine-learning based estimator for epidemiologists (no wizard required).","authors":"Audrey Renson, Lina Montoya, Dana E Goin, Iván Díaz, Rachael K Ross","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf169","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Epidemiologists increasingly use causal inference methods that rely on machine learning, as these approaches can relax unnecessary model specification assumptions. While deriving and studying asymptotic properties of such estimators is a task usually associated with statisticians, it is useful for epidemiologists to understand the steps involved, as epidemiologists are often at the forefront of defining important new research questions and translating them into new parameters to be estimated. In this paper, our goal was to provide a relatively accessible guide through the process of (i) deriving an estimator based on the so-called efficient influence function (which we define and explain), and (ii) showing such an estimator's ability to validly incorporate machine learning, by demonstrating the so-called rate double robustness property. The derivations in this paper rely mainly on algebra and some foundational results from statistical inference, which are explained.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cyrill Friedauer, Katarina L Matthes, Phung Lang, Kaspar Staub
{"title":"Reconstructing the spread of measles in the 20th century: An epidemiological analysis of the period prior to the introduction of vaccination in Switzerland.","authors":"Cyrill Friedauer, Katarina L Matthes, Phung Lang, Kaspar Staub","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf167","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In the early 20th century, measles posed a much greater threat to children than it is today in the present age of effective vaccination. The aim of this study is to quantify historical measles-related mortality, morbidity, and case-fatality-rate in Switzerland to better understand the dynamics of the spread prior to the introduction of vaccination.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Historical measles case and death records were transcribed and digitized for the first time, drawing on official federal periodicals. The data were visualised, followed by time series and wavelet analyses.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 1876 and 2022, a total of 19,226 measles deaths were recorded in Switzerland. Children under five had the highest mortality rates. The five-year average mortality rate peaked at 20.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants at the beginning of the 20th century, subsequently falling to 0.7 by the 1940s. After the introduction of vaccination in the 1970s, mortality rates remained steadily below 0.01. A notable decrease in measles incidence was not observed until the 1960s. Time series analysis revealed annual cycles indicating seasonality, which were embedded in longer cycles, extending from 1.5 to 5 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These findings provide insight into the pre-vaccine era and highlight the importance of high immunisation and vaccination rates.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Julie R Langås, Anne Eskild, Solveig Hofvind, Elisabeth K Bjelland
{"title":"The association of adolescent to midlife weight change with age at natural menopause: a population study of 263 586 women in Norway.","authors":"Julie R Langås, Anne Eskild, Solveig Hofvind, Elisabeth K Bjelland","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae426","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae426","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Age at menopause varies considerably among women and is linked to health after menopause. Body mass index is associated with age at natural menopause, but the influence of weight change remains unclear. Thus, we studied associations of adolescent to midlife weight change with age at natural menopause. We performed a retrospective, population-based, cohort study of 263 586 women aged 50-69 years attending BreastScreen Norway (2006-2015). The associations were estimated as hazard ratios (HRs) for having reached menopause, using Cox proportional hazard models. We included 9 categories of weight change based on recalls of adolescent weight compared with peers and quartiles of midlife weight in kilograms. We adjusted for year and country of birth, education, number of childbirths, height, smoking, and exercise. Women with the largest estimated weight loss had the highest hazard of reaching menopause (adjusted HR = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.17) compared with women with estimated stable average weight. Conversely, women with the largest estimated weight gain had a lower hazard of reaching menopause (adjusted HR = 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99). Women with estimated stable high weight had the lowest hazard of reaching menopause (adjusted HR = 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95). Our findings suggest changes in body weight across the life course may influence the timing of menopause.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2111-2218"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12342913/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142567004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sexual harassment, sexual violence, and mental health outcomes: causal inference with ambiguous exposures.","authors":"Fred Johansson, Kristoffer Magnusson","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae390","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae390","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Social exposures and their impact on mental health have proven hard to capture, partly owing to the complex and multifaceted nature of social reality. Sexual harassment and sexual violence (SHV) are no exceptions. Sexual harassment and sexual violence can be conceptualized as a continuum of negative sexual experiences whose severity vary depending on multiple determinants. Furthermore, SHV can be conceptualized as either discrete events or as a generally hostile sexual environment represented by latent variables. With any of these conceptualizations, SHV constitutes a broad construct containing many kinds of negative experiences. This ambiguity poses challenges for determining mental health consequences, because different forms of SHV may vary in terms of their mental health impact. We discuss different conceptualizations of SHV relative to mental health outcomes through the lens of the potential outcomes framework, with a focus on the consistency condition. The multiple versions of treatment theory is presented to show how to provide formal interpretations of causal estimates under ambiguous exposures. Last, we provide suggestions on how the increase the clarity and interpretability of the effects of SHV on mental health by increasing the precision of the causal questions and the use of more specific definitions of SHV. This article is part of a Special Collection on Methods in Social Epidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2336-2341"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142374977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L Hannah Gould, Rebecca Fee, John White, Noah Webb, Maureen Carlyle, Laura Dick, Ye Tan, Valery Walker, Frederick J Angulo, Jennifer C Moïsi, James H Stark, Sarah Pugh
{"title":"Risk factors for Lyme disease among residents of rural, suburban, and urban areas in the United States: a case-control study.","authors":"L Hannah Gould, Rebecca Fee, John White, Noah Webb, Maureen Carlyle, Laura Dick, Ye Tan, Valery Walker, Frederick J Angulo, Jennifer C Moïsi, James H Stark, Sarah Pugh","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae368","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae368","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, with 476 000 cases estimated each year. It is unclear how LD risk factors vary by residential setting. We conducted a case-control study on LD risk according to rural, urban, and suburban residential settings. Individuals from 15 high-incidence states and the District of Columbia in the Optum Research Database were identified as cases (LD medical claim) or controls (no LD medical claim, matched by county of residence and census block group population density). Participants were surveyed about LD history, outdoor activities, and residential characteristics. The final analytic data set had 750 LD cases and 965 controls. Residence in a rural setting had increased LD risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.16-1.72). In multivariable analyses, activities associated with LD were hiking/walking/running or having an occupation in forests, wooded areas, or areas of tall grass (all respondents), and spending time in a yard (rural and urban residents only). Public health interventions can help prevent LD in high-incidence jurisdictions by reinforcing the near-universal LD risk for rural residents and highlighting activities that lead to increased LD risk for those in areas with less ubiquitous tick exposure like in urban and suburban settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2287-2294"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12342856/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142278949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel Nigusse Tollosa, Kazem Zendehdel, Paolo Boffetta, Eero Pukkala, Mikael Rostila
{"title":"Disparities in overall and site-specific cancer mortality among immigrant generations in Sweden: a nationwide follow-up study over 3 decades.","authors":"Daniel Nigusse Tollosa, Kazem Zendehdel, Paolo Boffetta, Eero Pukkala, Mikael Rostila","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae388","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae388","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We examined the overall and site-specific cancer mortality disparities among first-generation-separately in adults (G1) and children (G1.5) at immigration-and second-generation (G2) immigrants and their countries of origin, using population-based registries in Sweden, encompassing more than 8.5 million individuals aged 20 years or older residing in Sweden since 1990, with follow-up until December 31, 2023. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted, stratified by sex, to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs compared with native Swedes. Mortality rates for most cancers transitioned from lower in G1 toward the rate of natives in G2. However, elevated mortality rates were sustained across generations for liver cancer in men and stomach cancer in women. Among G2, mortality rates associated with lymphohematopoietic cancers in men and lung and cervix uteri cancers in women were elevated y 10%, 9%, and 17%, respectively, compared to native Swedes. Country of origin analyses revealed substantial disparities. For instance, G2 women with Nordic parental origin had a 13% higher risk of death from lung cancer, whereas those with non-Western parental origin had a 54% lower risk, as compared to native Swedes. These findings suggest generational and arrival-age dynamics of cancer mortality and highlight target groups for cancer prevention and control among immigrants.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2325-2335"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12342873/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142374974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anne Gaml-Sørensen, Nis Brix, Andreas Ernst, Lea Lykke Harrits Lunddorf, Onyebuchi A Arah, Katrine Strandberg-Larsen, Cecilia Høst Ramlau-Hansen
{"title":"Pubertal timing and tempo and body mass index trajectories: investigating the confounding role of childhood body mass index.","authors":"Anne Gaml-Sørensen, Nis Brix, Andreas Ernst, Lea Lykke Harrits Lunddorf, Onyebuchi A Arah, Katrine Strandberg-Larsen, Cecilia Høst Ramlau-Hansen","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf063","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf063","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Earlier pubertal timing and faster pubertal tempo (pace of progression through puberty) might be associated with increased body mass index (BMI) later in life. In a follow-up study of 13 219 boys and girls from the Danish National Birth Cohort, we investigated the association between pubertal timing and tempo and BMI trajectories from puberty to adulthood and explored the potential confounding role of childhood BMI. Based on half-yearly information on self-reported current Tanner stages, pubertal timing and tempo were estimated using nonlinear mixed-effect growth models. In total, 136 457 height and weight measurements from 7 to 18 years were included. BMI trajectories from 11 to 18 years were fitted according to pubertal timing and tempo while adjusting for potential confounders, including childhood BMI at age 7 years. Children with earlier pubertal timing had higher and children with later pubertal timing had lower BMI trajectories from 11 to 18 years than children with average pubertal timing. After adjustment for childhood BMI, the difference disappeared in boys but persisted in girls, suggesting that earlier pubertal timing may be independently associated with later BMI in girls only. Faster pubertal tempo was associated with slightly higher BMI in young women only.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2270-2280"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12342948/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143676805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Enrique F Schisterman, Catherine Lesko, Lorraine T Dean, John Jackson
{"title":"Rethinking manuscript categories to reflect the future of Epidemiology.","authors":"Enrique F Schisterman, Catherine Lesko, Lorraine T Dean, John Jackson","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf099","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf099","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2128-2130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143965230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oludamilola Akinmolayemi, Yifei Sun, Robyn L McClelland, Michael P Bancks, Wendy S Post, Moyses Szklo, Wenshan Qu, Susan R Heckbert, Steven Shea
{"title":"Racial disparities in incident and recurrent cardiovascular events: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.","authors":"Oludamilola Akinmolayemi, Yifei Sun, Robyn L McClelland, Michael P Bancks, Wendy S Post, Moyses Szklo, Wenshan Qu, Susan R Heckbert, Steven Shea","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae399","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae399","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Most prior studies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events have focused on incident events. Here, differences were analyzed by race/ethnicity in incident and recurrent CVD events in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis from baseline in 2000-2002 through 2019 using joint and multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards modeling. Among 6814 men and women aged 45-85 years without known CVD at enrollment, during median follow-up of 17.7 years, 1206 incident and 695 recurrent CVD events occurred; 891 individuals with a nonfatal incident event were at risk for recurrent events. Rates of combined incident and recurrent CVD events among Black, White, Chinese, and Hispanic participants were 16.8, 18.6, 13.3, and 19.3 per 1000 person-years, respectively. First recurrent CVD event rates in Black, White, Chinese, and Hispanic participants were 87.7, 68.7, 78.1, and 80.7 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Revascularization rates were lower in Black compared with White participants (3.8 vs 6.4 per 1000 person-years; P < .0001). The adjusted hazard for CVD death was higher for Black than White participants (hazard ratio = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.03-3.29). In this multiethnic cohort, Black participants had a lower or similar rate of incident and recurrent CVD events, lower rate of revascularization, and higher rate of fatal CVD than did White participants.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2144-2149"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12342922/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142492834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}