PLoS currents最新文献

{"title":"First Wave of the 2016-17 Cholera Outbreak in Hodeidah City, Yemen - ACF Experience and Lessons Learned.","authors":"Mathias Altmann, Miguel Suarez-Bustamante, Celine Soulier, Celine Lesavre, Caroline Antoine","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.5c338264469fa046ef013e48a71fb1c5","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.5c338264469fa046ef013e48a71fb1c5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Although cases were reported only in 2010 and 2011, cholera is probably endemic in Yemen. In the context of a civil war, a cholera outbreak was declared in different parts of the country October 6th, 2016. This paper describes the ACF outbreak response in Hodeidah city from October 28th, 2016 to February 28th, 2017 in order to add knowledge to this large outbreak.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The ACF outbreak response in Hodeidah city included a case management component and prevention measures in the community. In partnership with the Ministry of Public Health and Population of Yemen (MoPHP), the case management component included a Cholera Treatment Center (CTC) implemented in the Al Thoraw hospital, 11 Oral Rehydration Therapy Corners (ORTCs) and an active case finding system. In partnership with other stakeholders, prevention measures in the community, including access to safe water and hygiene promotion, were implemented in the most affected communities of the city.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From October 28th, 2016 until February 28th, 2017, ACF provided care to 8,270 Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) cases, of which 5,210 (63%) were suspected cholera cases, in the CTC and the 11 ORTCs implemented in Hodeidah city. The attack rate was higher among people living in Al Hali district, with a peak in November 2016. At the CTC, 8% of children under 5 years-old also presented with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). The Case-Fatality Rate (CFR) was low (0.07%) but 15% of admitted cases defaulted for cultural and security reasons. Environmental management lacked the information to appropriately target affected areas. Financial resources did not allow complete coverage of the city.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Response to the first wave of a large cholera outbreak in Hodeidah city was successful in maintaining a CFR <1% in the CTC. However, considering the actual context of Yemen and its water infrastructure, much more efforts are needed to control the current outbreak resurgence.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693343/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discussion Informed by Recurrent Lessons from a Systematic Review on Targeting Practices in Urban Humanitarian Crises.","authors":"Ronak Patel,&nbsp;Jami King,&nbsp;Laura Phelps,&nbsp;David Sanderson","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.0d0be4b294b40f5e51ee7b58d9687ea0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.0d0be4b294b40f5e51ee7b58d9687ea0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Urbanization has challenged many humanitarian practices given the complexity of cities. Urban humanitarian crises have similarly made identifying vulnerable populations difficult. As humanitarians respond to cities with chronic deficiencies in basic needs stressed by a crisis, identifying and prioritizing the most in need populations with finite resources is critical.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The full systematic review applied standard systematic review methodology that was described in detail, peer-reviewed, and published before the research was conducted.Results: While the science of humanitarian practice is still developing, a systematic review of targeting vulnerable populations in urban humanitarian crises shed some light on the evidence base to guide policy and practice. This systematic review, referenced and available online, led to further findings that did not meet the pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria for evidence set out in the full review but that the authors, in their expert opinion, believe provide valuable insight nonetheless given their recurrence.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>These additional findings that did not meet criteria for evidence and formal inclusion in the full manuscript, but deemed valuable by the subject expert authors, are discussed in this commentary.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693362/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Prevalence of Risk Factors for Neglected Tropical Diseases in Brazos County, Texas.","authors":"Jennifer Horney, Daniel Goldberg, Tracy Hammond, Kahler Stone, Seth Smitherman","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.93540c6c8c7831670591b0264479269c","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.93540c6c8c7831670591b0264479269c","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Although more than one billion people live at risk of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in areas of Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the degree to which they burden countries like the U.S. is unclear. Even though many NTDs such as dengue, leishmaniasis, and Chagas disease are typically not endemic to the U.S., the possibility of their emergence is noteworthy, especially in states like Texas with high levels of poverty, large immigrant populations, geographic proximity to endemic areas, and a climate amenable to the vectors for these diseases. Despite the health threat that emerging NTDs may pose, little is known about the prevalence of risk factors for NTDs in the U.S.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We tested the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) method to assess the prevalence of risk factors for NTDs in Brazos County, Texas.Results: We found relatively low prevalence of risk factors related to travel (5.2% of respondents visited an endemic area in the previous 3 months); however, few respondents reported adherence to mosquito prevention, such as wearing long sleeves and long pants (14.1%, 95% CI: 13.9,14.4) and repellant containing DEET (13.5%, 95% CI: 13.2,13.7). Between 5.4% and 35.8% of respondents had a visible container (e.g., pet water dishes, flower pots, bird baths) that could support mosquito breeding.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>CASPER findings present public health authorities with potential avenues for implementing health education and other interventions aimed at reducing exposure to risk factors for NTDs among Texas residents.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693448/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of Armed Conflict on the Utilization of Maternal Health Services in Uganda: A Population-based Study.","authors":"Amrita Namasivayam,&nbsp;Pedro Arcos González,&nbsp;Rafael Castro Delgado,&nbsp;Primus Che Chi","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.557b987d6519d8c7c96f2006ed3c271a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.557b987d6519d8c7c96f2006ed3c271a","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Maternal mortality rates can be adversely affected by armed conflict, implying a greater level of vulnerability among women, and is often linked to the lack of or limited access to maternal healthcare during conflict. Previous research in Uganda has shown that armed conflict negatively impacts women's utilization of maternal healthcare services for a multitude of reasons at the individual, health-system and political levels.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study compared aggregated Demographic and Health Surveys data from 13 districts in Northern Uganda, a conflict-affected region, with data from the rest of the country, for the use of maternal healthcare services for the years 1988, 1995, 2000, 2006 and 2011, using statistical analyses and logistic regression. Specific indicators for maternal healthcare utilization included contraceptive use, antenatal care, skilled assistance at birth and institutional delivery.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Use of contraception and institutional deliveries among women in Northern Uganda was significantly lower compared to the rest of the country. However, skilled assistance at birth among women in Northern Uganda was significantly higher.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The findings in this study show that armed conflict can have a negative impact on aspects of maternal healthcare such as contraceptive use and institutional deliveries; however, other indicators such as skilled assistance at birth were seen to be better among conflict-affected populations. This reiterates the complex nature of armed conflict and the interplay of different factors such as conflict intensity, existing health systems and services, and humanitarian interventions that could influence maternal healthcare utilization.</p><p><strong>Key words: </strong>Armed conflict, maternal health utilization, Northern Uganda, contraception, skilled assistance at birth, antenatal care, institutional delivery.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693797/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35296231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Benefits of Prenatal Taurine Supplementation in Preventing the Onset of Acute Damage in the Mdx Mouse.","authors":"Robert G Barker, Deanna Horvath, Chris van der Poel, Robyn M Murphy","doi":"10.1371/currents.md.9a3e357a0154d01050b591601cbd4fdb","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.md.9a3e357a0154d01050b591601cbd4fdb","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is a debilitating muscle wasting disorder with no cure. Safer supplements and therapies are needed to improve the severity of symptoms, as severe side effects are associated with the only effective treatment, corticosteroids. The amino acid taurine has shown promise in ameliorating dystrophic symptoms in mdx mice, an animal model of DMD, however little work is in 21-28 (d)ay animals, the period of natural peak damage.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study compares the effect of prenatal taurine supplementation on tibialis anterior (TA) in situ contractile function, histopathological characteristics and the abundance of Ca²⁺-handling as well as pathologically relevant proteins in non-exercised mdx mice at 28 and 70 d.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Supplementation elevated TA taurine content by 25% (p<0.05), ameliorated in situ specific force by 60% (p<0.05) and improved histological characteristics in 28 d mdx mice; however no benefit was seen in 70 d mice, where background pathology was initially stable. Age specific effects in SERCA1, calsequestrin 1 (CSQ1), CSQ2, utrophin and myogenin protein abundances were seen between both 28 and 70 d mdx and mdx taurine-supplemented mice.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Considering these findings and that taurine is a relatively cost effective, readily accessible and side effect free dietary supplement, we propose further investigation into taurine supplementation during pregnancy in a protective capacity, reminiscent of folate in the prevention of spinal bifida.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693597/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Rights-based Approach to Information in Humanitarian Assistance.","authors":"Daniel P Scarnecchia,&nbsp;Nathaniel A Raymond,&nbsp;Faine Greenwood,&nbsp;Caitlin Howarth,&nbsp;Danielle N Poole","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.dd709e442c659e97e2583e0a9986b668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.dd709e442c659e97e2583e0a9986b668","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Crisis-affected populations and humanitarian aid providers are both becoming increasingly reliant on information and communications technology (ICTs) for finding and provisioning aid. This is exposing critical, unaddressed gaps in the legal and ethical frameworks that traditionally defined and governed the professional conduct of humanitarian action. The most acute of these gaps is a lack of clarity about what human rights people have regarding information in disaster, and the corresponding obligations incumbent upon governments and aid providers.  This need is lent urgency by emerging evidence demonstrating that the use of these technologies in crisis response may be, in some cases, causing harm to the very populations they intend to serve.  Preventing and mitigating these harms, while also working to responsibly ensure access to the benefits of information during crises, requires a rights-based framework to guide humanitarian operations. In this brief report, we provide a commentary that accompanies our report, the Signal Code: A Human Rights Approach to Information During Crisis, where we have identified five rights pertaining to the use of information and data during crisis which are grounded in current international human rights and customary law. It is our belief that the continued relevance of the humanitarian project, as it grows increasingly dependent on the use of data and ICTs, urgently requires a discussion of these rights and corresponding obligations.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693342/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Listening to the Voices of the People: Community's Assessment of Disaster Responder Agency Performance During Disaster Situations in Rural Northern Ghana.","authors":"Stephen Apanga,&nbsp;Gregory Titi Addebah,&nbsp;Dennis Chirawurah","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.4226abe816b2746df13d16ea307b5846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.4226abe816b2746df13d16ea307b5846","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>In Northern Ghana, a combination of torrential rains coupled with the spilling of the Bagre dam in neighboring Burkina Faso in the past few years has resulted in perennial flooding of communities. This has often led to the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMAO) the main disaster responder agency in Ghana, being called upon to act. However affected communities have never had the opportunity to evaluate the activities of the agency. The aim of this study is therefore to assess the performance of the main responder agency by affected community members to improve on future disaster management.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A mixed qualitative design employing a modified form of the community score card methodology and focus group discussions was conducted in the 4 most affected communities during the last floods of 2012 in the Kasena-Nankana West district of the Upper East Region of Northern Ghana. Community members comprising of chiefs, elders, assembly members, women groups, physically challenged persons, farmers, traders and youth groups formed a group in each of the four communities. Generation and scoring of evaluative indicators was subsequently performed by each group through the facilitation of trained research assistants. Four Focus group discussions (FGDs) were also conducted with the group members in each community to get an in-depth understanding of how the responder agency performed in handling disasters.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of four community score cards and four focus group discussions were conducted involving 48 community representatives. All four communities identified NADMO as the main responder agency during the last disaster. Indicators such as education/awareness, selection process of beneficiaries, networking/collaboration, timing, quantity of relief items, appropriateness, mode of distribution of relief items, investigation and overall performance of NADMO were generated and scored. The timing of response, quantity and appropriateness of relief items were evaluated as being poor whereas the overall performance of the responder agency was above average.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>NADMO was identified as the main responder agency during the last disasters with community members identifying education/awareness, selection process of beneficiaries, networking/collaboration, timing of response, quantity of relief items, appropriateness of relief items, mode of distribution of relief items, investigation and overall performance as the main evaluative indicators. The overall performance of NADMO was rated to be satisfactory.</p><p><strong>Key words: </strong>Kasena-Nankana West district, NADMO, community score card, Rural Northern Ghana.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693796/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35601178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Theory of Planned Behavior and Disaster Preparedness.","authors":"Mehdi Najafi,&nbsp;Ali Ardalan,&nbsp;Ali Akbarisari,&nbsp;Ahmad Ali Noorbala,&nbsp;Helen Elmi","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.4da18e0f1479bf6c0a94b29e0dbf4a72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.4da18e0f1479bf6c0a94b29e0dbf4a72","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Disaster preparedness is defined as actions that ensure resources necessary to carry out an effective response are available before a disaster. Disaster preparedness requires a thorough understanding of the factors that influence performance or nonperformance of disaster preparedness behaviors (DPB). The major aim of this research was to further our understanding of DPB based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB).</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This was a cross-sectional study of factors determining of DPB in a representative sample of 1233 Tehran inhabitants. Measures derived from the TPB were obtained in the unprepared and prepared people.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Consistent with the theory, intentions to do DPB could the person predicted from attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control with respect to DPB; and actually doing DPB was strongly related to intentions and perceptions of control assessed in the prepared people. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>An effective intervention will not only have to encourage people of the desirability of DPB, but also to provide them with the skills and means to do it. The more strongly they can be made to feel that they have control over DPB, the more likely they are to carry out their intentions. That is, heightened perceived control tends to strengthen people's motivation to do DPB.</p><p><strong>Key words: </strong>theory of planned behavior; disaster;  preparedness.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35516417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fetal Zika Virus Infection in Vietnam.","authors":"Phan Trong Lan,&nbsp;Luong Chan Quang,&nbsp;Vu Thi Que Huong,&nbsp;Nguyen Vu Thuong,&nbsp;Phan Cong Hung,&nbsp;Tran Thi Luu Nguyen Huong,&nbsp;Huynh Phuong Thao,&nbsp;Nguyen Thi Thanh Thao,&nbsp;Anthony W Mounts,&nbsp;Leisha D Nolen","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.1c8f631e0ef8cd7777d639eba48647fa","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.1c8f631e0ef8cd7777d639eba48647fa","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As of 13 July 2016, 13 countries have reported fetal Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. Here we report a case of fetal ZIKV infection that resulted from an infection originating in Vietnam.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5693598/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35296230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda.","authors":"Luke Nyakarahuka, Samuel Ayebare, Gladys Mosomtai, Clovice Kankya, Julius Lutwama, Frank Norbert Mwiine, Eystein Skjerve","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.07992a87522e1f229c7cb023270a2af1","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.07992a87522e1f229c7cb023270a2af1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5614672/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35516419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}