PLoS currents最新文献

{"title":"Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017.","authors":"Maimuna S Majumder,&nbsp;Emily L Cohn,&nbsp;Mauricio Santillana,&nbsp;John S Brownstein","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.1d0c9c5c01de69dfbfff4316d772954f","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.1d0c9c5c01de69dfbfff4316d772954f","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Between August and November 2017, Madagascar reported nearly 2500 cases of plague; the vast majority of these cases were pneumonic, resulting in early exponential growth due to person-to-person transmission. Though plague is endemic in Madagascar, cases are usually bubonic and thus result in considerably smaller annual caseloads than those observed from August-November 2017.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this study, we consider the transmission dynamics of pneumonic plague in Madagascar during this time period, as well as the role of control strategies that were deployed to curb the outbreak and their effectiveness.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>When using data from the beginning of the outbreak through late November 2017, our estimates for the basic reproduction number range from 1.6 to 3.6, with a mean of 2.4. We also find two distinctive periods of \"control\", which coincide with critical on-the-ground interventions, including contact tracing and delivery of antibiotics, among others.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Given these results, we conclude that existing interventions remain effective against plague in Madagascar, despite the atypical size and spread of this particular outbreak.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6224036/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36693612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does the Humanitarian Sector Use Evidence-informed Standards? A Review of the 2011 Sphere Indicators for Wash, Food Security and Nutrition, and Health Action.","authors":"Severine Frison, James Smith, Karl Blanchet","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.40805a591152be1c1431b5dab43e516d","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.dis.40805a591152be1c1431b5dab43e516d","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In 1997, the pursuit of greater accountability and effectiveness in humanitarian response prompted a multi-stakeholder collaboration to develop a set of indicators and standards to guide humanitarian practitioners, published later in the form of the Sphere Handbook. Twenty years after the first edition of the Handbook was developed, and in order to guide the 2018 revision, an assessment of the evidence base for current Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), Food Security and Nutrition, and Health Action indicators, as compared to evidence collated by the 2015 LSHTM Humanitarian Health Evidence Review (HHER), was conducted.</p><p><strong>Methodology: </strong>In order to assess the utility of the Sphere indicators as a tool with which to monitor and evaluate humanitarian activities, indicators from the WASH, Food Security and Nutrition, and Health Action chapters of the Sphere Handbook were analysed and classified according to the SMART criteria. Each indicator was then assessed based on existing evidence related to the effectiveness of humanitarian health interventions as compiled in the HHER.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 159 Sphere indicators intended to guide humanitarian response, only 2 met all of the SMART criteria. The remaining 157 did not provide any time indication for the measurement of the indicator. Furthermore, only 11 standards (23%) and 14 indicators (8%) are supported in part by 33 studies identified in the HHER. Less than one third of studies captured by HHER that explore interventions related to WASH, nutrition, or health could be linked to existing Sphere indicators.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>It is not possible to adequately link the 2011 Sphere indicators and standards to their sources in their current constitution, and they are not sufficiently evidence-informed. In the absence of clear measurement definitions, they do not provide necessarily detailed guidance. While recognising that a number of indicators have emerged as a combination of empirical evidence, expert experience, and \"common sense\", a focus on fewer indicators, each better defined, is likely to enhance the practical application of the Sphere Handbook in humanitarian settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6218202/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uganda at Glance of 5.7 Magnitude Earthquake: Lessons for Earthquake Risk Reduction.","authors":"Joseph Kimuli Balikuddembe,&nbsp;Paul Sinclair","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.646967e849bc40bfb5d9cd54b66a2eee","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.646967e849bc40bfb5d9cd54b66a2eee","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Uganda remains seismically vulnerable to earthquakes, which constitute one of the most deadly naturally triggered disasters in the world. This is not surprising given the country's location in the East African Rift Valley System.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This paper draws mainly on the authors' live event experience and some media reports to narratively outline the nature of a sizable earthquake, which measured a magnitude of 5.7 on the Richter scale that struck Uganda and other countries within the Lake Victoria Basin region on 10th September 2016 in the afternoon.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Rakai - a district in central region was the worst affected in Uganda. It witnessed the death of four people; 20 people were admitted to the hospital with injuries; a total of 590 people were affected; and serious structural damages mainly in buildings were reported, leaving many either razed to the ground or left with cracks.</p><p><strong>Discussions: </strong>Although this earthquake was less devastating in terms of injuries and fatalities compared to two previous earthquakes in Uganda, based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale it was still considered to be severe. Therefore, this paper identified some proactive lessons as far as earthquake risk reduction in Uganda is concerned, which among others include: encouraging earthquake-resistant buildings; the safety of essential infrastructure; earthquake early warning systems supported by free global technologies; and the safety of rescue workers along with prioritizing the psychosocial needs of rescue teams. With all this in mind, the September 2016 earthquake should serve as a timely reminder that there is a real need for the proactive ex-ante earthquake preparedness rather than risking an expensive post-ante approach to responding to any future devastating earthquakes in Uganda.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6209497/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought in the Semiarid Region of Brazil: Exposure, Vulnerabilities and Health Impacts from the Perspectives of Local Actors.","authors":"Aderita Sena, Carlos Freitas, Patrícia Feitosa Souza, Fernando Carneiro, Tais Alpino, Marcel Pedroso, Carlos Corvalan, Christovam Barcellos","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.c226851ebd64290e619a4d1ed79c8639","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.dis.c226851ebd64290e619a4d1ed79c8639","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>The objective of this study was to understand and assess the perception of communities, organized civil society, health professionals, and decision-makers of several governmental institutions, regarding vulnerabilities and health impacts in drought prone municipalities of Brazil.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study was carried out through a qualitative investigation in eight municipalities in the Brazilian Semiarid region. Data collection was done through semi-structure and structure interviews, and discussion with local actors, which included communities groups, health professionals, governmental managers and organized civil society.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results point to the local actors' concerns and to the fragility of the health sector in the planning of integrated actions directed towards risks and impacts associated with drought conditions on human health.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>The lack of a specific knowledge contributes to making invisible the process that determines the impacts of drought on health, leading to an acceptance of drought in those municipalities, reducing the capacity of the health system to respond to droughts.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>drought, vulnerability, risks, health, perception, Brazilian Semiarid, resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6279460/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36830704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neurodevelopmental Needs in Young Boys with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD): Observations from the Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group (CINRG) DMD Natural History Study (DNHS).","authors":"Mathula Thangarajh,&nbsp;Christopher F Spurney,&nbsp;Heather Gordish-Dressman,&nbsp;Paula R Clemens,&nbsp;Eric P Hoffman,&nbsp;Craig M McDonald,&nbsp;Erik K Henricson","doi":"10.1371/currents.md.4cdeb6970e54034db2bc3dfa54b4d987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.md.4cdeb6970e54034db2bc3dfa54b4d987","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is the most common X-linked neuromuscular condition manifested by progressive skeletal muscle weakness, cardiopulmonary involvement and cognitive deficits. Neurodevelopmental symptoms and signs are under-appreciated in this population despite the recognition that cognition has a major impact on quality-of-life. We describe the neurodevelopmental needs in a large cohort of young boys with DMD from the DMD Natural History Study (DNHS). We explore the association between neurodevelopmental needs and DMD mutation location, and with glucocorticoid use.   Methods: We prospectively evaluated 204 participants between ages 4 to less than 9 years of age with DMD as part of a large, longitudinal, international DNHS. We obtained parent- or primary care-giver report of neurodevelopmental needs as part of their study visit. We assessed the relationship between parent/care-giver neurodevelopmental needs and DMD mutation location, and glucocorticoid use.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The neurodevelopmental needs that were most commonly reported included speech delay (33%), mild developmental delay (24%), significant behavioral problems (16.5%), language impairment (14.5%), learning disability (14.5%), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (5%) and autism spectrum disorder (3%). Neurodevelopmental needs were more commonly reported by care-givers in those with DMD mutations downstream of exon 51. There was no relationship between care-giver reported neurodevelopmental needs and glucocorticoid use.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Neurodevelopmental needs are highly prevalent in young boys with DMD. Care-givers report higher neurodevelopmental needs when subjects have DMD mutations downstream of exon 51. Early interventions aimed at cognitive health are critical to improve the quality-of-life of individuals with DMD.</p><p><strong>Trial registration: </strong>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00468832.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6209412/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real Time Forecasting of Measles Using Generation-dependent Mathematical Model in Japan, 2018.","authors":"Andrei R Akhmetzhanov,&nbsp;Hyojung Lee,&nbsp;Sung-Mok Jung,&nbsp;Ryo Kinoshita,&nbsp;Kazuki Shimizu,&nbsp;Keita Yoshii,&nbsp;Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3cc277d133e2d6078912800748dbb492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3cc277d133e2d6078912800748dbb492","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Japan experienced a multi-generation outbreak of measles from March to May, 2018. The present study aimed to capture the transmission dynamics of measles by employing a simple mathematical model, and also forecast the future incidence of cases.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Epidemiological data that consist of the date of illness onset and the date of laboratory confirmation were analysed. A functional model that captures the generation-dependent growth patterns of cases was employed, while accounting for the time delay from illness onset to diagnosis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>As long as the number of generations is correctly captured, the model yielded a valid forecast of measles cases, explicitly addressing the reporting delay. Except for the first generation, the effective reproduction number was estimated by generation, assisting evaluation of public health control programs.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The variance of the generation time is relatively limited compared with the mean for measles, and thus, the proposed model was able to identify the generation-dependent dynamics accurately during the early phase of the epidemic. Model comparison indicated the most likely number of generations, allowing us to assess how effective public health interventions would successfully prevent the secondary transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6198657/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36694221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction: Measuring Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability in Myanmar and Implications for Local Zika Virus Transmission.","authors":"Plos Currents","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9934c8779f27f8fa6e4d59d3197dff85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9934c8779f27f8fa6e4d59d3197dff85","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6179578/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36593662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of the 2013 Floods on the Incidence of Malaria in Almanagil Locality, Gezira State, Sudan.","authors":"Yasir Elfatih Abdelrahim Elsanousi,&nbsp;Abbas Suleiman Elmahi,&nbsp;Irene Pereira,&nbsp;Michel Debacker","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.8267b8917b47bc12ff3a712fe4589fe1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.8267b8917b47bc12ff3a712fe4589fe1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Heavy rain hit Sudan in August 2013 with subsequent flash floods in different parts of the country. This study investigated the impact of the flooding on incidence of malaria in Almanagil Locality in central Sudan.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This observational retrospective study compared malaria data sets during rainfall seasons in the Almanagil Locality in the year of flooding (2013) with those of corresponding rainfall seasons of previous two non-flood years (2011 and 2012).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A marked increase of new malaria cases and incidence rate was observed in the 13 sentinel malaria notification sites in the locality  (IR increased from 6.09 per 100,000 person-days in 2011 [95 % CI: 5.93-6.26] and 6.48 in 2012 [95 % CI: 6.31-6.65] to 8.24 in 2013 [95 % CI: 8.05-8.43] ; P< 0.0001), with a peaking of the incidence rate in the under-5-years age group (IR for this age group jumped from 9.80 per 100,000 person-days in 2011 [95 % CI: 9.29-10.32] and 10.00 in 2012 [95 % CI: 9.52-10.49] to 15.02 in 2013 [95 % CI: 14.41-15.64]). A noticeable increase in the slide positivity rate (P< 0.0001) was observed in the 12-week period of 2013 (SPR = 20.86% [95 % CI: 20.40 -21.32%]) compared with the same periods in 2011 (SPR = 8.72% [95 % CI: 8.36 -9.08%]) and 2012 (SPR = 12.62% [95 % CI: 12.24 -13.01%]), with a more marked rise of the SPR in the under-5-year age group. Hospital data showed increase in both the inpatient and outpatient incidence proportions in the study period of 2013 compared to those of the years 2011 and 2012. Hospital OPD incidence proportion in 2013 was 19.7% (95% CI: 19.24-20.18%) compared to 12.85% (95% CI: 12.48-13.23%) in 2011, and 12.16% (95% CI: 11.82-12.51%) in 2012. The < 5 year old groups were responsible for the overall rise in the proportion of malaria cases in 2013 , particularly the < 1 year old group which more than doubled in the 2013 period compared to both 2011 and 2012 periods (Age-specific proportion of the outpatient malaria cases of the < 1 year old group in 2013 was19.5% [95% CI: 18.5-20.6%]  compared to 7.7% [95% CI: 6.9-8.6%] in 2011 and 8.1% [95% CI: 7.3-8.9%] in 2012. Incidence proportion of severe malaria cases (inpatients) increased to 22.5 % (95 % CI: 21.5 to 23.6 %) in the study period of 2013 compared to 19.8 % (95 % CI: 18.6 to 21.0 %) in 2011 and 18.4 % (95 % CI: 17.4 to 19.5) in 2012. The increase in the proportion of severe malaria cases was mainly due to a higher proportion of children < 5 years of age and especially to a higher proportion of children < 1 year of age.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study revealed a significant increase in the incidence rate of malaria in Almanagil Locality following the flash flood of August 2013. The flooding had the highest impact on the malaria incidence of the under-5-years age group, and particularly of the under-1-year age group.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6209411/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36674825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Process of Development of a County-wide Crisis Care Plan - Riverside County, California, 2016-7.","authors":"Cameron Kaiser, Ramon Leon, Karen Craven","doi":"10.1371/currents.dis.f272fef04c7222a546e03450221a69d1","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.dis.f272fef04c7222a546e03450221a69d1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Disasters with substantial impacts to the health care and public health systems can have multiple reverberating effects, including the need to alter the medical standard of care as well as centrally control scarce medical resources. A current crisis care plan can help to establish an ethical and operational framework for stakeholders before such a disaster takes place. However, there are few examples of such a plan that cover large areas and health jurisdictions. This article describes the process of developing such a \"Crisis Care Plan.\"</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Plan developers from the Riverside County Department of Public Health and Riverside County Emergency Management Department first developed an ethical framework for decision making, followed by the development of a full operational crisis care plan with conditions for activation, life cycle and deactivation. The plan was then reviewed by major county stakeholders, including local emergency medical services, the county medical association and the hospital association, and additional comments incorporated. Before the final plan is implemented it will be submitted for public review and provider training materials will be developed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The development of a prerequisite ethical framework helped to reduce the risk that the operational plan would cause or exacerbate care disparities by informing a blinded, objective process for evaluating resource requests centrally prior to distribution. The ethical framework served to establish the grounding principle of all lives having an equal claim on value. Stakeholders recognized the need for such a Crisis Care Plan and agreed with the underlying ethical principles. Stakeholders also contributed useful recommendations to enable the plan to operate in as successful a manner as possible under the difficult conditions within which it would exist.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>The development of a clear ethical framework and the early identification and involvement of stakeholders can enable even very large health jurisdictions to construct crisis care plans that enable the best care under difficult circumstances, while protecting individual rights and incorporating the concerns of the public and the health care community.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6177335/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36593661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability in Myanmar and Implications for Local Zika Virus Transmission.","authors":"Pablo Noel Perez-Guzman, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara, Uri Obolski, Maricelia M de Lima, Elizabeth A Ashley, Frank Smithuis, Peter Horby, Richard J Maude, Zaw Lin, Aye Mon Mon Kyaw, José Lourenço","doi":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6","DOIUrl":"10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7a6c64436a3085ebba37e5329ba169e6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.</p>","PeriodicalId":74464,"journal":{"name":"PLoS currents","volume":"10 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6472868/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37369117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}