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Discussion of Breiman's "Two Cultures": From Two Cultures to One 论布莱曼的“两种文化”：从两种文化到一种文化
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0004
Anna Neufeld, D. Witten
{"title":"Discussion of Breiman's \"Two Cultures\": From Two Cultures to One","authors":"Anna Neufeld, D. Witten","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2021.0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:We argue that algorithmic models, though powerful and appropriate in some circumstances, rely on just as many tenuous assumptions as parametric probabilistic models; these assumptions, their violations, and the ethical consequences of these violations are simply obscured within a black box. We advocate for a future in which statisticians play a central role in bridging the gap between Breiman's two cultures.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43750897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Melting Pot 熔炉
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0012
R. Tibshirani, T. Hastie
{"title":"A Melting Pot","authors":"R. Tibshirani, T. Hastie","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2021.0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Leo Breiman's article \"Statistical Modeling: The two cultures\" was timely and provocative. He advocated for Statisticians to learn about and appreciate a different \"culture\": an algorithmic approach, as distinct from the familiar, stochastic, data modeling approach to Statistics. While we have appreciated and contributed to the algorithmic approach, we have always had a foot in both camps. Here we advocate for a \"melting pot\", arguing that both approaches have their virtues, sometimes on the same problem.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/obs.2021.0012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44567597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
One Modern Culture of Statistics: Comments on Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures (Breiman, 2001b) 一种现代统计学文化：对统计建模的评论：两种文化（Breiman，2001b）
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0020
P. Bühlmann
{"title":"One Modern Culture of Statistics: Comments on Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures (Breiman, 2001b)","authors":"P. Bühlmann","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2021.0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:We comment on Leo Breiman's \"Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures\" paper. We provide some thoughts on prediction from a broader perspective and argue that \"aiming for one modern culture\" is a highly embracing attempt for addressing key problems in data and information sciences.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48758134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal Modelling: The Two Cultures 因果模型：两种文化
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0006
Elizabeth L. Ogburn, I. Shpitser
{"title":"Causal Modelling: The Two Cultures","authors":"Elizabeth L. Ogburn, I. Shpitser","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2021.0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:We offer descriptive and normative standards for the principled pursuit of causal inference. These standards address critiques of both the algorithmic and the data modeling cultures identified in (Breiman, 2001), and provide a fruitful synthesis of both cultures. We contrast the resulting \"cautious causal inference\" with overly optimistic methods inspired by algorithmic data analysis methods prevalent in machine learning, as well as older approaches to causal modeling that employ overly restrictive parametric models.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/obs.2021.0006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43520306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Statistical Modeling: Returning to its Roots 统计建模：回归本源
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0014
Qingyuan Zhao
{"title":"Statistical Modeling: Returning to its Roots","authors":"Qingyuan Zhao","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2021.0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Leo Breiman's \"Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures\" is a treasure for any statistician who engages with real world problem. I argue that there is a more fundamental dichotomy between the principles of statistical modeling and the techniques for statistical modeling. Focusing entirely on the techniques in statistical education and research can be dangerous. I join Breiman's call for statistics to return to its roots.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/obs.2021.0014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42393513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Beyond Two Cultures: Cultural Infrastructure for Data-driven Decision Support. 超越两种文化:数据驱动决策支持的文化基础设施。
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0024
Nikki L B Freeman, John Sperger, Helal El-Zaatari, Anna R Kahkoska, Minxin Lu, Michael Valancius, Arti V Virkud, Tarek M Zikry, Michael R Kosorok
{"title":"Beyond Two Cultures: Cultural Infrastructure for Data-driven Decision Support.","authors":"Nikki L B Freeman, John Sperger, Helal El-Zaatari, Anna R Kahkoska, Minxin Lu, Michael Valancius, Arti V Virkud, Tarek M Zikry, Michael R Kosorok","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0024","DOIUrl":"10.1353/obs.2021.0024","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the twenty years since Dr. Leo Breiman's incendiary paper <i>Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures</i> was first published, algorithmic modeling techniques have gone from controversial to commonplace in the statistical community. While the widespread adoption of these methods as part of the contemporary statistician's toolkit is a testament to Dr. Breiman's vision, the number of high-profile failures of algorithmic models suggests that Dr. Breiman's final remark that \"the emphasis needs to be on the problem and the data\" has been less widely heeded. In the spirit of Dr. Breiman, we detail an emerging research community in statistics - data-driven decision support. We assert that to realize the full potential of decision support, broadly and in the context of precision health, will require a culture of social awareness and accountability, in addition to ongoing attention towards complex technical challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8802367/pdf/nihms-1773096.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39741992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Considerations Across Three Cultures: Parametric Regressions, Interpretable Algorithms, and Complex Algorithms. 跨越三种文化的考量：参数回归、可解释算法和复杂算法。
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2021.0009
Ani Eloyan, Sherri Rose
{"title":"Considerations Across Three Cultures: Parametric Regressions, Interpretable Algorithms, and Complex Algorithms.","authors":"Ani Eloyan, Sherri Rose","doi":"10.1353/obs.2021.0009","DOIUrl":"10.1353/obs.2021.0009","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We consider an extension of Leo Breiman's thesis from \"Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures\" to include a bifurcation of algorithmic modeling, focusing on parametric regressions, interpretable algorithms, and complex (possibly explainable) algorithms.</p>","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8415757/pdf/nihms-1732979.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39387492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causation in Action: Some Remarks Attendant to Re-reading Hill (1965) 作用中的因果关系:重读希尔(1965)的一些评论
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-06-04 DOI: 10.1353/OBS.2020.0007
Herbert L. Smith
{"title":"Causation in Action: Some Remarks Attendant to Re-reading Hill (1965)","authors":"Herbert L. Smith","doi":"10.1353/OBS.2020.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/OBS.2020.0007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/OBS.2020.0007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45137848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous Subgroup Identification with Observational Data: A Case Study Based on the National Study of Learning Mindsets 基于观察数据的异质亚群识别:基于国家学习心态研究的个案研究
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-06-04 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2019.0010
Bryan Keller, Jianshen Chen, Tianyang Zhang
{"title":"Heterogeneous Subgroup Identification with Observational Data: A Case Study Based on the National Study of Learning Mindsets","authors":"Bryan Keller, Jianshen Chen, Tianyang Zhang","doi":"10.1353/obs.2019.0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2019.0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In this paper, we use a two-step approach for heterogeneous subgroup identification with a synthetic data set motivated by the National Study of Learning Mindsets. In the first step, optimal full propensity score matching is used to estimate stratum-specific treatment effects. In the second step, regression trees identify key subgroups based on covariates for which the treatment effect varies. In working with regression trees, we emphasize the role of the cost-complexity tuning parameter, selected through permutation-based Type I error rate studies, in justifying inferential decision-making, which we contrast with graphical and quantitative exploration for future study. Results indicate that the mindset intervention was effective, overall, in improving student achievement. While our exploratory analyses identified XC, C1, and X1 as potential effect modifiers worthy of further study, we find no statistically significant evidence of effect heterogeneity with the exception of urbanicity category XC = 3, but the finding is not robust to propensity score estimation method.","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/obs.2019.0010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41420738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Comment on Cochran’s “Observational Studies” 评科克伦的“观察性研究”
Observational studies Pub Date : 2021-06-04 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2015.0017
B. Hansen, Adam C. Sales
{"title":"Comment on Cochran’s “Observational Studies”","authors":"B. Hansen, Adam C. Sales","doi":"10.1353/obs.2015.0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/obs.2015.0017","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74335,"journal":{"name":"Observational studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1353/obs.2015.0017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48808444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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