Emiliano Sordi, Prisco Piscitelli, Carla Albanese, Anna Melcarne, Anna Tardio, Fabrizio Quarta, Enrico Greco, Alessandro Miani, Andrea Falco, Elisabetta De Matteis, Maurizio Congedo, Adele Civino
{"title":"Incidence of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancers in Salento (Southern Italy): A 15-Year Retrospective Analysis from the Cancer Registry of Lecce.","authors":"Emiliano Sordi, Prisco Piscitelli, Carla Albanese, Anna Melcarne, Anna Tardio, Fabrizio Quarta, Enrico Greco, Alessandro Miani, Andrea Falco, Elisabetta De Matteis, Maurizio Congedo, Adele Civino","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia5010001","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia5010001","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background and objectives: </strong>Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) include basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC), as well as a wide range of rare skin tumors. NMSCs is the most frequently diagnosed type of tumor among Caucasians. We aimed at estimating the incidence and mortality of NMSCs in the Salento area (Lecce province, Southern Italy), whose population is assumed to experience heavy and frequent sun exposure due to climatic/environmental factors, both for working and leisure activities.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>We computed the incidence of NMSCs in the Province of Lecce by examining the comprehensive real-world data collected by the local cancer registry, which covers all the 830,000 inhabitants, over a period of fifteen years (from 2003 to 2017), with a focus on the latest 5 years (2013-2017) for the analysis of the different histologic morphologies of these tumors. The incidence of NMSCs has been described in terms of absolute frequencies, crude rates and age-adjusted direct standardized rates (DSR). Joinpoint analysis was used to examine temporal trends in the incidence of NMSCs and estimate annual percent changes (APCs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During the period of 2003-2017, the incidence of NMSCs reached a direct standardized rate (DSR) of 162.62 per 100,000 in men (mortality 1.57 per 100,000) and 89.36 per 100,000 in women (mortality 0.52 per 100,000), respectively. The incidence significantly increased among both men and women across the entire period. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC), with its different morphologies, represented about 67.6% of the NMSCs in men (<i>n</i> = 2139 out of a total of 3161 tumors observed between 2013 and 2017) and about 75.8% of the NMSCs in women (<i>n</i> = 1718 out of a total of 2264 tumors from 2013 to 2017), thus accounting for the vast majority of NMSCs. The results are consistent with the literature data carried out both at national and international level.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Proper monitoring of this phenomenon through timely reporting and recording of all new NMSC cases is necessary to develop new preventive strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"5 1","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10968721/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140295480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tuberculosis and Risk of Emphysema among US Adults in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study Cohort, 1971-1992.","authors":"Anita Joshi, L Joseph Su, Mohammed S Orloff","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040044","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040044","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>(1) Background: History of TB is a known risk factor for long-term respiratory impairment affecting lung functions in both restrictive and obstructive lung disease. (2) Methods: We analyzed data from the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (NHEFS), a longitudinal study conducted on a noninstitutionalized adult US population aged 25-74 years. Approximately 93 percent of the original NHANES I cohort was successfully traced by the end of the survey period and was available for analysis. The final adjusted model included age groups, gender, family income, lifetime smoking, body mass index (BMI), and frequency of alcohol consumption as potential confounders. (3) Results: The estimated hazards ratio of developing emphysema during follow-up for individuals with a past diagnosis of TB was 54% lower (95% CI = 0.35, 0.61) that that in individuals with no past TB, after controlling for potential confounders and using proportional hazards regression appropriate to the complex sample design. The association, however, was not statistically significant (HR = 0.86, <i>p</i>-value = 0.38) when only a self-reported history of TB was considered as the exposure in an unadjusted model. (4) Conclusions: Tuberculosis (self-reported or LTBI) was strongly (but inversely) associated with emphysema incidence. The association was not statistically significant with only a self-reported history of TB as exposure.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"525-537"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10871094/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138833345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rajat Das Gupta, Hanna A Frank, Maxwell Akonde, Ananna Mazumder, Nazeeba Siddika, Ehsanul Hoque Apu, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty
{"title":"Rural-Urban Differences in Prevalence and Associated Factors of Underweight and Overweight/Obesity among Bangladeshi Adults: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018.","authors":"Rajat Das Gupta, Hanna A Frank, Maxwell Akonde, Ananna Mazumder, Nazeeba Siddika, Ehsanul Hoque Apu, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040042","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040042","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aim of this study was to identify the differences in prevalence and associated factors of underweight and overweight/obesity among Bangladeshi adults (≥18 years) by analyzing the cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018 data. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression was applied to identify the factors associated with underweight and overweight/obesity in urban and rural areas. The prevalence of underweight was 12.24% and 19.34% in urban and rural areas, respectively. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was 50.23% and 35.96%, respectively, in urban and rural areas. In the final multivariable analysis in both urban and rural areas, 30-49 years of age, female sex, being educated up to college or higher level, living in the wealthiest household, and being currently married or being separated/divorced/widowed had higher odds of being overweight/obese compared to other categories. Residence in the Mymensingh and Sylhet region was associated with decreased odds of overweight/obesity in urban and rural areas. On the other hand, being educated up to college or higher level, living in the wealthiest household, and being married were associated with reduced odds of being underweight in both areas. These high-risk groups should be brought under targeted health promotion programs to curb malnutrition.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"505-520"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10742748/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138833344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Prisco Piscitelli, Stela Karaj, Alessandro Miani, Tassos C Kyriakides, Enrico Greco, Elena Colicino, Antonio Bray, Fernando Simón, Vasilis Vasiliou, Andrea A Baccarelli
{"title":"How Healthcare Systems Negatively Impact Environmental Health? The Need for Institutional Commitment to Reduce the Ecological Footprint of Medical Services.","authors":"Prisco Piscitelli, Stela Karaj, Alessandro Miani, Tassos C Kyriakides, Enrico Greco, Elena Colicino, Antonio Bray, Fernando Simón, Vasilis Vasiliou, Andrea A Baccarelli","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040043","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040043","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The global healthcare industry plays a crucial role in preserving human health and well-being [...].</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"521-524"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10871105/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138833343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comprehensive Knowledge about HIV/AIDS among Women of Reproductive Age in India.","authors":"Aritro Bhattacharyya, Ritankar Chakraborty, Tapasya Raj, Bijaya Kumar Padhi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Prakasini Satapathy, Sarvesh Rustagi, Vijay Kumar Chattu","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040041","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040041","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>HIV/AIDS has been a major threat to global public health, with India ranking third when it comes to the global burden of people living with HIV, especially women. It is imperative to assess the level of knowledge women have about transmission and prevention of this infection. This study sought to delineate the determinants of the comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS among women in the reproductive age groups in India. Data from the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey conducted in India were analyzed. The sample included 95,541 women aged 15-49 years. Multilevel logistic regression was fitted with individual characteristics, household characteristics, and community characteristics to identify determinants of comprehensive knowledge on HIV/AIDS. Nearly a fourth (24.8%) of the women aged 15-49 in India who had ever heard of HIV had comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Multilevel logistic regression showed that the likelihood of comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS was higher among women aged 40-44 (AOR = 1.57) and 30-34 (AOR = 1.56). The likelihood of having comprehensive knowledge increased with the increase in the level of education. Women with secondary and higher levels of education were 1.9 times and 3.38 times more likely to have comprehensive knowledge, respectively, than those with no education. Household wealth, access to mass media, and having ever tested for HIV were also significant determinants of comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS among women. The odds of having comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS were higher for women with higher community wealth (AOR = 1.31), higher community education (AOR = 1.09), and higher community employment (AOR = 1.12). Factors at both the individual and community levels were shown to be indicators of comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Policymakers and public health practitioners in India should come up with plans to close the information gaps about HIV/AIDS that exist among women and their demographic subgroups.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"492-504"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10660847/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138178100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Halli Heimbuch, Yeong Rhee, Marty Douglas, Kirsten Juhl, Kelly Knoll, Sherri Stastny, Ryan McGrath
{"title":"Prevalence and Trends of Basic Activities of Daily Living Limitations in Middle-Aged and Older Adults in the United States","authors":"Halli Heimbuch, Yeong Rhee, Marty Douglas, Kirsten Juhl, Kelly Knoll, Sherri Stastny, Ryan McGrath","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4040040","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Population-level surveillance of the prevalence and trends of basic self-care limitations will help to identify the magnitude of physical disablement in the rapidly growing older American demographic. We sought to evaluate the prevalence and trends of activities of daily living (ADL) limitations in the United States. Methods: The analytic sample included 30,418 Americans aged ≥50 years from the 2006–2018 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. ADLs were self-reported. Weighted prevalence estimates were presented, and trends analyses were performed. Results: Although overall ADL disability prevalence was 16.5% (95% confidence interval: 15.8–17.2) in 2018, there were no changes in limitations during the study period (p = 0.52). Older adults had a greater ADL disability prevalence than middle-aged adults (p < 0.001). While older persons experienced a declining trend of ADL limitations (p < 0.001), middle-aged persons had an increasing trend (p < 0.001). Males had a lower ADL limitation prevalence than females (p < 0.001). Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black had a higher ADL disability prevalence than non-Hispanic White (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This investigation revealed that while the estimated prevalence of ADL limitations in the United States was substantial, changes in such limitations were not observed. Our findings can help guide ADL screening, target sub-populations with an elevated ADL limitation prevalence, and inform interventions.","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":" 22","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135241773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fanny Buckinx, Stéphane Adam, Mylène Aubertin-Leheudre, Marie De Saint Hubert, Alexandre Mouton, Florence Potier, Jean-Yves Reginster, Olivier Bruyere
{"title":"Quality of Life and Health Determinants of Informal Caregivers Aged 65 Years and Over","authors":"Fanny Buckinx, Stéphane Adam, Mylène Aubertin-Leheudre, Marie De Saint Hubert, Alexandre Mouton, Florence Potier, Jean-Yves Reginster, Olivier Bruyere","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4040039","url":null,"abstract":"Informal caregivers’ own quality of life, health status, and determinants are poorly understood despite their concern for the health of the individuals they assist. To compare the quality of life and the health determinants of older informal caregivers with those of older adults without caregiving responsibilities. An online survey was designed to investigate the quality of life and the health determinants of people aged 65 years and over, with a focus on informal caregivers. In addition to socio-demographic data, the number of informal caregivers was ascertained and the Zarit scale of caregiver burden was applied. Quality of life (SF-12) and health determinants (access to technology and level of physical activity (IPAQ)) were assessed and compared between informal caregivers and non-caregivers. A total of 111 participants were included in the study (70 ± 3.83 years, 71.2% women). The majority of respondents (91.8%) were Belgian. One-third of the respondents identified themselves as informal caregivers and declared themselves as having a severe burden (61.9 ± 15.2/88). Socio-demographic characteristics and access to technology were similar between informal caregivers and non-caregivers (p > 0.05). However, informal caregivers had a lower SF-12 score in the mental score domain (44.3 ± 10.2 vs. 50.7 ± 7.0; p = 0.004) and a lower level of physical activity (434 ± 312 METS/min/week vs. 1126 ± 815 METS/min/week; p = 0.01) than their peers. Informal caregivers reported a lower quality of life and a lower level of physical activity than their peers. Given the recognized importance of physical activity for overall health, this survey highlights the need to promote physical activity among older informal caregivers.","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135635712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriele d’Ettorre, Stela Karaj, Prisco Piscitelli, Osvaldo Maiorano, Carmen Attanasi, Roberta Tornese, Eugenia Carluccio, Paolo Giannuzzi, Enrico Greco, Giancarlo Ceccarelli, Gabriella d’Ettorre, Giambattista Lobreglio, Pierpaolo Congedo, Francesco Broccolo, Alessandro Miani
{"title":"Right to Occupational Safety: Prevalence of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Healthcare Workers. A 1-Year Retrospective Survey Carried out at Hospital of Lecce (Italy)","authors":"Gabriele d’Ettorre, Stela Karaj, Prisco Piscitelli, Osvaldo Maiorano, Carmen Attanasi, Roberta Tornese, Eugenia Carluccio, Paolo Giannuzzi, Enrico Greco, Giancarlo Ceccarelli, Gabriella d’Ettorre, Giambattista Lobreglio, Pierpaolo Congedo, Francesco Broccolo, Alessandro Miani","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4040038","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Prevention of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in healthcare workers (HCWs) to ensure the “Right to Occupational Safety” is a special challenge globally, as HCWs have a higher risk of acquiring the infection in hospital settings because of frequent close exposure to patients suffering from tuberculosis (TB). Methods: Aretrospective study was performed with the aim of assessing the prevalence of LTBI related to demographical and occupational risk factors among HCWs employed in a large hospital in Italy. The study involved 1461 HCWs screened for LTBI by Mantoux tuberculin skin test (TST) and then confirmed with Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) test in case of positivity. Immunosuppressed and BGC-vaccinated workers were tested directly with IGRA. Results: LTBI was diagnosed in 4.1% of the HCWs and the prevalence resulted lower than other studies conducted in low TB incidence countries. The variables significantly linked with higher frequency of the infection were: age ≥40 years (OR = 3.14; 95% CI: 1.13–8.74; p < 0.05), length of service ≥15 years (OR = 4.11; 95% CI: 1.48–11.43; p < 0.05) and not being trained on TB prevention (OR = 3.46; 95% CI: 1.85–6.46; p < 0.05). Not trained HCWs presented a higher risk of LTBI also after adjustment for age and length of service, compared to trained HCWs. Conclusions: screening of HCWs for LTBI should be always considered in routinely occupational surveillance in order to early diagnose the infection and prevent its progression. Safety policies in hospital settings centered on workers’ training on TB prevention is crucial to minimize LTBI occurrence in HCWs.","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"135 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135870677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Data-Driven Deep Learning Neural Networks for Predicting the Number of Individuals Infected by COVID-19 Omicron Variant.","authors":"Ebenezer O Oluwasakin, Abdul Q M Khaliq","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040037","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040037","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Infectious disease epidemics are challenging for medical and public health practitioners. They require prompt treatment, but it is challenging to recognize and define epidemics in real time. Knowing the prediction of an infectious disease epidemic can evaluate and prevent the disease's impact. Mathematical models of epidemics that work in real time are important tools for preventing disease, and data-driven deep learning enables practical algorithms for identifying parameters in mathematical models. In this paper, the SIR model was reduced to a logistic differential equation involving a constant parameter and a time-dependent function. The time-dependent function leads to constant, rational, and birational models. These models use several constant parameters from the available data to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant. Two out of these three models, rational and birational, provide accurate predictions for countries that practice strict mitigation measures, but fail to provide accurate predictions for countries that practice partial mitigation measures. Therefore, we introduce a time-series model based on neural networks to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in a given country that practices both partial and strict mitigation measures. A logistics-informed neural network algorithm was also introduced. This algorithm takes as input the daily and cumulative number of people who are reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the given country. The algorithm helps determine the analytical solution involving several constant parameters for each model from the available data. The accuracy of these models is demonstrated using error metrics on Omicron variant data for Portugal, Italy, and China. Our findings demonstrate that the constant model could not accurately predict the daily or cumulative infections of the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the observed country because of the long series of existing data of the epidemics. However, the rational and birational models accurately predicted cumulative infections in countries adopting strict mitigation measures, but they fell short in predicting the daily infections. Furthermore, both models performed poorly in countries with partial mitigation measures. Notably, the time-series model stood out for its versatility, effectively predicting both daily and cumulative infections in countries irrespective of the stringency of their mitigation measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"420-453"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594457/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49694739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simeon Adeyemo, Adekunle Sangotola, Olga Korosteleva
{"title":"Modeling Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis-HIV Co-Infection in South Africa.","authors":"Simeon Adeyemo, Adekunle Sangotola, Olga Korosteleva","doi":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040036","DOIUrl":"10.3390/epidemiologia4040036","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>South Africa has the highest number of people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the world, accounting for nearly one in five people living with HIV globally. As of 2021, 8 million people in South Africa were infected with HIV, which is 13% of the country's total population. Approximately 450,000 people in the country develop tuberculosis (TB) disease every year, and 270,000 of those are HIV positive. This suggests that being HIV positive significantly increases one's susceptibility to TB, accelerating the spread of the epidemic. To better understand the disease burden at the population level, a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) TB-HIV co-infection epidemic model is presented. Parameter values are estimated using the method of moments. The disease-free equilibrium and basic reproduction number of the model are also obtained. Finally, numeric simulations are carried out for a 30-year period to give insights into the transmission dynamics of the co-infection.</p>","PeriodicalId":72944,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiolgia (Basel, Switzerland)","volume":"4 4","pages":"408-419"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10594517/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49694740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}