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Optimal Lending Contracts with Retrospective and Prospective Bias 具有回顾性和前瞻性偏差的最优贷款合同
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231115
J. Bohren, Daniel N. Hauser
{"title":"Optimal Lending Contracts with Retrospective and Prospective Bias","authors":"J. Bohren, Daniel N. Hauser","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231115","url":null,"abstract":"Model misspecification is a common approach to model belief formation distortions. Misspecified models can be decomposed into two classes of distortions: prospective and retrospective biases (Bohren and Hauser 2023). Prospective biases correspond to distortions in forecasting future beliefs, while retrospective biases correspond to distortions in interpreting information ex post. We disentangle the impact of these two distortions on optimal lending contracts in the context of an entrepreneur who borrows to invest in a project. The entrepreneur learns about project quality from a signal, which she interprets with a misspecified model. A lender leverages each form of bias in distinct ways.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"201 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72416703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robot Hubs: The Skewed Distribution of Robots in US Manufacturing 机器人中心:美国制造业中机器人的倾斜分布
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231038
E. Brynjolfsson, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. F. Li, Javier Miranda, Robert C. Seamans
{"title":"Robot Hubs: The Skewed Distribution of Robots in US Manufacturing","authors":"E. Brynjolfsson, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. F. Li, Javier Miranda, Robert C. Seamans","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231038","url":null,"abstract":"We use establishment-level data from the US Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geographic locations of investments in robots. We find that the distribution of robots is highly skewed across locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presences of robot integrators, which specialize in helping manufacturers install robots, and of higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74760662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Report of the Editor, American Economic Review 《美国经济评论》编辑报告
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.113.707
{"title":"Report of the Editor, American Economic Review","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.707","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"2010 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86298715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Selection Bias in Voluntary Random Testing: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study 自愿随机检测中的选择偏倚:来自COVID-19抗体研究的证据
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231091
D. Dutz, M. Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago E. Lacouture, M. Mogstad, Danae Roumis, A. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie van Dijk
{"title":"Selection Bias in Voluntary Random Testing: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study","authors":"D. Dutz, M. Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago E. Lacouture, M. Mogstad, Danae Roumis, A. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie van Dijk","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231091","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from a serological study that experimentally varied financial incentives for participation to detect and characterize selection bias. Participants are from neighborhoods with substantially lower COVID-19 risks. Existing methods to account for the resulting selection bias produce wide bounds or estimates that are inconsistent with the population. One explanation for these inconsistent estimates is that the underlying methods presume a single dimension of unobserved heterogeneity. The data suggest that there are two types of nonparticipants with opposing selection patterns. Allowing for these different types may lead to better accounting for selection bias.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80636515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
M&A and Innovation: A New Classification of Patents 并购与创新:一种新的专利分类
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231100
Zhao-Hong Cheng, G. Jin, Mario Leccese, Dokyun Lee, Liad Wagman
{"title":"M&A and Innovation: A New Classification of Patents","authors":"Zhao-Hong Cheng, G. Jin, Mario Leccese, Dokyun Lee, Liad Wagman","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231100","url":null,"abstract":"Policymakers are increasingly concerned that incumbent acquisitions of small or young firms may slow down rather than speed up innovation, but it is difficult to identify which firms are related in the fast-changing space of technological innovation. This paper proposes a new, data-driven method to classify patent data into tech-business zones on a probabilistic basis, using patent assignee information. After combining mergers and acquisitions data from S&P Global Market Intelligence with PatentsView data from the US Patent and Trademark Office, we discuss how the zone classification can aid merger reviews and other lines of research.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87988793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Distributional Impacts of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement 加美自由贸易协定对分配的影响
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231078
B. Kovak, Peter M. Morrow
{"title":"Distributional Impacts of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement","authors":"B. Kovak, Peter M. Morrow","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231078","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effects of the 1988 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on employment and earnings inequality among low-, medium-, and high-income Canadian workers initially employed in manufacturing. Although the FTA tariff cuts drove large changes in trade flows, we find generally small effects on employment and cumulative earnings during 1989-2004. Workers faced negative effects of import competition and positive effects of access to the US export market, but these effects were largely offset by transitions into other industries and sectors. The effect on earnings inequality was small, with point estimates implying a slight reduction in earnings inequality.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91110873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Report of the Editor, American Economic Review: Insights 《美国经济评论:洞察》编辑报告
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.113.721
{"title":"Report of the Editor, American Economic Review: Insights","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.721","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88642046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Refugee Entrepreneurship: The Case of Venezuelans in Colombia 难民创业:委内瑞拉人在哥伦比亚的案例
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231020
Dany Bahar, Bo Cowgill, Jorge Guzman
{"title":"Refugee Entrepreneurship: The Case of Venezuelans in Colombia","authors":"Dany Bahar, Bo Cowgill, Jorge Guzman","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231020","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the entire business registry of Colombia during 2015-2022, a period when Colombia received two million Venezuelan immigrants and refugees. We present two main findings. First, firms owned by foreigners, most of them Venezuelans, tend to be 10 to 20 percent more capitalized when founded as compared to firms owned by locals within the same industry, geographic location, and year of registration. Second, while more intensive in capital, these firms owned by foreigners are just as likely to survive the first two and three years as firms owned by locals are. We discuss the implications for these findings.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New Measurement of Export Participation in US Manufacturing 美国制造业出口参与的新测量方法
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231076
Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
{"title":"New Measurement of Export Participation in US Manufacturing","authors":"Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231076","url":null,"abstract":"We measure export participation rates in the US manufacturing sector using a new administrative dataset and compare them to participation rates constructed from the commonly used census of manufacturers (CM). At both the establishment and firm levels, export participation rates are near 40 percent in the administrative data, almost twice as high as in the CM. The discrepancy appears to result predominantly from undercounting of small exporters in the CM. Our findings call for reconsidering the conventional wisdom that around 20 percent of manufacturing firms export.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distorted Innovation: Does the Market Get the Direction of Technology Right? 扭曲的创新:市场能正确把握技术方向吗?
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231000
Daron Acemoglu
{"title":"Distorted Innovation: Does the Market Get the Direction of Technology Right?","authors":"Daron Acemoglu","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231000","url":null,"abstract":"In the presence of markup differences, externalities, and other social effects, the direction of innovation can be systematically distorted. I build a simple model of endogenous technology to study distortions in the direction of innovation. Empirical findings across a number of different areas are consistent with this framework's predictions. I use data from several studies to estimate the framework's key parameters and combine them with rough estimates of differential externalities and markups to provide suggestive evidence that innovation distortions can be substantial in the context of industrial automation, health care, and energy, and that correcting them could have sizable welfare benefits.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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