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Mental Models and Transfer Learning 心理模型和迁移学习
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231114
Ignacio Esponda, E. Vespa, S. Yuksel
{"title":"Mental Models and Transfer Learning","authors":"Ignacio Esponda, E. Vespa, S. Yuksel","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231114","url":null,"abstract":"Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate the extent to which learning is transferred between related problems in the context of an updating task. The updating principle we study requires updating positively after a positive signal and negatively after a negative signal. In the first environment, most subjects initially fail to satisfy the principle but eventually adjust after feedback. The environment they face subsequently presents the same challenges but with different parameter values. We find weak evidence for transfer learning: only half of the subjects who learn to be consistent with the principle remain so when the parameter values are changed.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"110 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79325869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms 美国企业的感知和预期通货膨胀率
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231034
Bernardo Candia, Michael Weber, Y. Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion
{"title":"Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms","authors":"Bernardo Candia, Michael Weber, Y. Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231034","url":null,"abstract":"The seminal work of Jonung (1981) showed that households' perceptions of inflation are the strongest predictor of households' inflation expectations. This fact has been a key ingredient for testing and developing theoretical models of how economic agents form expectations (e.g., the famous Lucas (1972) island model). However, little is known about whether perceptions play a similar role for firms. Using a new survey of American CEOs, we document that inflation perceptions shape the inflation expectations of firms just as Jonung (1981) found for households. These results suggest that information rigidities apply not only for households but also for CEOs.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79342305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Model of Demand for Health and Caregiving Incorporating Marriage Markets 结合婚姻市场的健康和护理需求模型
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231106
S. Grossbard, Lorena Hakak
{"title":"A Model of Demand for Health and Caregiving Incorporating Marriage Markets","authors":"S. Grossbard, Lorena Hakak","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231106","url":null,"abstract":"According to the Grossman model, the demand for health-related goods or services varies with the costs of their substitutes produced in the household. This paper contributes to the literature on the demand for health-related products and home care by also considering substitution between goods produced at home by oneself and those produced by one's spouse or partner. It is argued that marriage market variation such as variation in individual traits of partners/spouses or in sex ratios and changes in laws about marriage or divorce may affect demand for health-related goods and home care by relatives.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"110 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79458388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 《美国经济杂志:宏观经济学》编辑报告
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.113.757
{"title":"Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.757","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82835840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions 国际金融制裁的宏观经济后果
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231042
Javier Bianchi, César Sosa‐Padilla
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions","authors":"Javier Bianchi, César Sosa‐Padilla","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231042","url":null,"abstract":"Financial sanctions have emerged as powerful weapons in the current geopolitical landscape. In this paper, we use a graphical framework to trace their macroeconomic implications, highlighting lessons for the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency, sovereign debt crises, and the fragmentation of capital flows.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83259722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool 美联储主席演讲作为货币政策工具的重要性
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231073
Eric T. Swanson
{"title":"The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool","authors":"Eric T. Swanson","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231073","url":null,"abstract":"I estimate the effects of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988 to 2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature's focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in US monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79494968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
How Should Sanctions Account for Bystander Countries? 制裁应如何考虑旁观者国家?
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231044
J. Sturm
{"title":"How Should Sanctions Account for Bystander Countries?","authors":"J. Sturm","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231044","url":null,"abstract":"Neutral “bystander countries” have profoundly shaped the impact of trade sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. How should sanctions account for the presence of such bystanders? I study this question in a simple trade model where a sanctioning country places tariffs on imports from a sanctioned country in the presence of a neutral third country. Optimal tariffs-as-sanctions are lower on goods that the sanctioner can import from bystanders. On goods that the sanctionee can export to bystanders, tariffs-as-sanctions are higher given an elasticity of (excess) supply to the sanctioner but lower given a total elasticity of supply.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77582813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hormone Therapy, Suicidal Risk, and Transgender Youth in the United States 激素治疗、自杀风险和美国跨性别青年
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231057
Travis Campbell, Samuel Mann, D. Nguyen, Yana Rodgers
{"title":"Hormone Therapy, Suicidal Risk, and Transgender Youth in the United States","authors":"Travis Campbell, Samuel Mann, D. Nguyen, Yana Rodgers","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231057","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses the 2015 US Transgender Survey to test how initiation of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) affects the risk of attempting suicide among transgender individuals. We constructed a retrospective panel and employed a stacked event study design to demonstrate that HRT is associated with a substantially lower risk of suicide attempt. The average treatment effect on the treated is a decrease of 5.7 percentage points in the risk of ever attempting suicide if HRT is started between the ages of 14 and 17, which amounts to a 14.4 percent reduction in the risk of attempting suicide relative to the pretreatment mean.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"12 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72485595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Using Grouped Data to Estimate Revenue Heterogeneity in Online Advertising Auctions 利用分组数据估计在线广告拍卖收入异质性
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231095
Nils A. Breitmar, M. Harding, Carlos Lamarche
{"title":"Using Grouped Data to Estimate Revenue Heterogeneity in Online Advertising Auctions","authors":"Nils A. Breitmar, M. Harding, Carlos Lamarche","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231095","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the heterogeneous impact of advertising networks from the perspective of a publisher who has access to limited information provided by the advertising platform in the form of grouped data over different auctions and users. The models account for the high-dimensional nature of the data and allow for time-varying interactive effects. We estimate models for different countries, and the measured heterogeneity may reflect factors such as local competition or cost effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"235 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74278483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
American Economic Association 2022–2023 Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics 美国经济学会2022-2023年通用学术问卷汇总统计
AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/pandp.113.688
{"title":"American Economic Association 2022–2023 Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.688","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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