Accident; analysis and prevention最新文献

{"title":"Evaluating e-bike safety at unsignalized roundabouts using a Bayesian mixed logit model","authors":"Dexue Kong ,&nbsp;Cunbao Zhang ,&nbsp;Feng Chen ,&nbsp;Chun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Roundabouts are a unique intersection design for calming traffic and improving vehicle safety without traffic signal control. While a few past studies have examined the impact of the roundabout on bicyclist and pedestrian injury crashes, little is known about its effect on the safety of electric bike (e-bike) riders. This study uses a Bayesian mixed logit model to quantify the impact of roundabout geometry, traffic flow and conflict characteristics on the severity of e-bike-vehicle conflicts. Surrogate safety indicators were used to measure the severity of conflicts. Statistical results show that the main safety issue at unsignalized roundabouts is conflicts between entering e-bike riders and vehicles, with a high propensity for serious conflicts, followed by exiting conflict. Marginal effects of the combined best-fit model showed that the probability of slight and no conflicts increased as the diameter of the roundabout increased, while an increase in the number of lanes could lead to a higher probability of serious conflicts. Whether e-bikes or vehicles, an increase in speed increases the probability of serious and slight conflicts, while high traffic volumes show the opposite effect. In addition, conflict severity reduced with additional factors of conflict characteristics compared to no conflict. The combined best fit model performs well in the validation dataset with a prediction accuracy of 67.1 % and better performance for the exiting conflict and entering conflict models. These findings can be used to assess e-bike safety at unsignalized roundabouts without dedicated e-bike facilities and to enhance safety through targeted measures such as driver and e-bike rider education, the implementation of dedicated or shared lanes, and speed limits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 108004"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of scenario cases for autonomous transportation system: Insights from CAV safety testing and scenario generation","authors":"Yuhan Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Shi ,&nbsp;Yichang Shao ,&nbsp;Nirajan Shiwakoti ,&nbsp;Jian Zhang ,&nbsp;Ziyuan Pu ,&nbsp;Zhirui Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring the reliability and trustworthiness of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies is crucial before their widespread implementation. Instead of focusing solely on the automation levels of individual vehicles, it is essential to consider the autonomous operations of the entire autonomous transportation system (ATS) to achieve automated traffic. However, designing and generating scenarios that unify the diverse properties of CAV testing and establish mutual trust among stakeholders pose significant challenges. Previous studies have predominantly focused on the automation levels of CAVs when characterizing scenarios, neglecting the autonomous level of the entire scenario from an ATS perspective. Moreover, there remains research potential in evaluating whether the testing scenario libraries can be effectively integrated into the CAV testing process. In this paper, we propose a grading framework for traffic scenarios based on autonomous levels in the ATS. We also classify and summarize the traffic scenarios used in CAV safety testing. Through a comprehensive literature review, we identify prevailing issues and patterns in scenario design and provide insights and directions for future research in this field.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107994"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic crossing decisions in vehicle interactions at uncontrolled intersections: A networked driving simulator study","authors":"Miaomiao Yang,&nbsp;Qiong Bao,&nbsp;Yongjun Shen,&nbsp;Qikai Qu,&nbsp;Rui Zhang,&nbsp;Tianyuan Han,&nbsp;Huansong Zhang,&nbsp;Minghao Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At uncontrolled intersections, without traffic signals or explicit right-of-way guidance, drivers interacting from different directions depend on their perception and real-time judgment to make strategic decisions about when and how to cross or yield. This uncertainty in decision-making, if misjudged, may result in vehicle collisions. In this study, we developed a networked two-vehicle driving simulator platform, conducted experiments to simulate the interaction between straight-going (SG) and left-turn (LT) vehicles at uncontrolled intersections, and focused on exploring the contributing factors that may influence drivers’ crossing decisions. By analyzing the varying sequences of vehicle acceleration with changes in distance to conflict (DTC), we first identified the critical transition state which marks the shift from stable to dynamic decision-making, helping determine the moment that drivers make crossing or yielding decisions. Then, by examining vehicle operational indicators at the critical transition state and incorporating human factors, a correlated random parameter random regret minimization binary logit model was developed to investigate the contributing factors influencing crossing decisions made by SG and LT drivers. The results indicate that individual speed and DTC have no significant impact on the crossing decisions of either SG or LT drivers, but variables such as speed difference and DTC difference between the two vehicles do, which highlights the importance of conducting two-vehicle simulation in capturing interaction variables. Furthermore, in terms of human factors, penalty records are found to significantly affect the crossing decisions of both SG and LT drivers. Income level has significant influence on SG crossing decisions, while gender is a significant factor influencing LT crossing decisions. Additionally, this study also reveals that for SG vehicles, the trade-off value between the speed difference and the DTC difference is mostly concentrated between 5 and 6, meaning that each 1 m/s speed difference corresponds to an impact of 5 to 6 m of DTC difference on crossing decisions. For LT vehicles, the trade-off values were primarily between 3 and 5. These findings would be valuable for developing connected vehicle information systems and for supporting policy-making efforts to reduce crash risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107990"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vehicle trajectory fractal theory for macro-level highway crash rate analysis","authors":"Yuhan Nie ,&nbsp;Min Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo Wang ,&nbsp;Chi Zhang ,&nbsp;Yijing Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107989","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107989","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vehicle trajectory data can reveal actual driving behavior patterns reflected by different road geometric designs, providing important insights for road safety analysis and improvements. This study aims to is to explore the correlation between vehicle trajectory fractal dimension (FD) and highway crash rate (CR) using large-scale telematics trajectory data. Specifically, we propose three methods to measure the FD of vehicle trajectories, and developed fractal parameter estimation technology. The results show that FD differences between road segments have a statistically significant effect on CR. A comparison of FD with five common surrogates in identifying high-risk crash sections reveals that FD reduces the false alarm rate from 52% to 94% (other surrogates) to 46%, with a recall rate of 95%. The fractal method enhances the dimensionality of trajectory feature analysis, refining the granularity of road safety analysis. It fully considers the interaction between road geometry design and driving behavior, revealing the complex dynamic movement of vehicles within the road system. This study provides methodological support for improving road geometry design and enhancing road safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107989"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on the probability of ship collisions with hydraulic hubs due to main engine failure","authors":"Chaofeng Wang ,&nbsp;Mingjun Liu ,&nbsp;Desheng Cao ,&nbsp;Yuantan Lin ,&nbsp;Xingya Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing importance of hydraulic hubs has grown in parallel with the rapid expansion of the global economy. However, the intensified utilization of hub waters has also elevated the associated risks. In particular, the loss of control of a vessel within these waters can pose significant threats to both infrastructure and the operational stability of hydraulic hubs. Preventing collisions between ships and hydraulic hubs has therefore become a critical issue for safeguarding navigational facilities in such environments. This study develops a probabilistic model to calculate the collision probability of vessels within hydraulic hubs, using the Monte Carlo algorithm and the MMG (Mathematical Modeling Group) method. By simulating the motion trajectories of ships following main engine failure across various operational scenarios, the model incorporates the unique characteristics of hydraulic hubs. A case study of the Poyang Lake Hydraulic Hub is conducted to validate the performance of the proposed algorithm. The results indicate that strategically deploying anti-collision facilities at the mooring piers of the hydraulic hub can significantly reduce the likelihood of ship collisions with navigational infrastructure in the event of main engine failure. These findings provide valuable insights into the optimal design, placement, and integration of anti-collision measures, navigational aids, safety signage, and related facilities within hydraulic hubs. The implementation of these recommendations has the potential to substantially enhance the safety and operational efficiency of ships navigating Hydraulic hub waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107987"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driving risks assessment and in-vehicle warning design for improving work zone safety","authors":"Junyu Hang ,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Li ,&nbsp;Xuedong Yan ,&nbsp;Ke Duan ,&nbsp;Qingchun Wang ,&nbsp;Qingwan Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Work zones present unique risks to both workers and road users due to its complex and dynamic nature. This study developed a two-stage in-vehicle warning system aimed at refining driver behavior when approaching work zones and mitigating lane-changing risks. To accurately capture the thorough behavioral processes of drivers near work zones, a driving simulation experiment was conducted involving 38 participants of diverse genders and occupations. Different warning modes (baseline vs. two-stage warning), speed limits (60 km/h vs. 80 km/h), and visibility conditions (clear vs. fog) were incorporated into the experimental design. The entire behavioral performance was segmented into approaching and lane-changing processes. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) models were employed to analyze behavioral changes during the approaching process under different conditions, and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm was utilized for risk assessments. Influencing analysis was then applied to examine the relationship between behavioral changes during the approaching process and lane-changing risk levels. The findings reveal that, compared to the baseline group, the two-stage warning effectively reduced the average approaching speed by 2.25 %, increased the headway distance by 19.02 %, and advanced the starting point of lane-changing maneuvers by approximately 42.8 m on average, all of which contributed to a decrease in overall lane-changing risks. Under high speed limits, despite all drivers adhering to the speed limit, the phenomenon of relatively higher deceleration still persists, leading to unsafe and uncomfortable conditions.<!--> <!-->Additionally, the risk faced by drivers is significantly heightened when traveling at higher speeds in dense fog, further corroborating the necessity of the two-stage warning. The findings provide a theoretical foundation for the development of in-vehicle warning systems for work zone areas, offering practical implications for safe and efficient operations within work zones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107991"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143592033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influences of weather on pedestrian safety perception at mid-block crossing: A CAVE-based study","authors":"Manman Zhu ,&nbsp;Daniel J. Graham ,&nbsp;Nan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zijin Wang ,&nbsp;N.N. Sze","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reckless crossing behaviour is one of the major contributing factors to pedestrian crashes and injuries. The relationship between perceived risk and actual behaviour of pedestrians was examined. However, influences of weather conditions, which is a significant crash contributory factor, on the pedestrian safety perception are less studied. In this study, pedestrian safety perception in adverse weather and low visibility conditions like rain and fog is examined using immersive Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE) experiment. For instance, the 3D virtual reality model of a mid-block crossing in Hong Kong is developed. Factors including pedestrian socio-demographics, vehicle speed, gap size and weather condition are considered in the experiments. The propensity score method is adopted to estimate the causal inferences of weather conditions on pedestrian safety perception. Moreover, effects of multilevel data for multiple treatments are accounted using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results indicate that perceived risk of pedestrians are higher in rainy and foggy conditions. Also, adverse impact of rainy condition is more significant in the dusk time, compared to daytime. Findings should shed light on effective remedial measures like traffic management and control, and street lighting that can mitigate the risk of pedestrian crash at the mid-block crossing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 107988"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling crash avoidance behaviors in vehicle-pedestrian near-miss scenarios: Curvilinear time-to-collision and Mamba-driven deep reinforcement learning","authors":"Qingwen Pu ,&nbsp;Kun Xie ,&nbsp;Hongyu Guo ,&nbsp;Yuan Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Interactions between vehicle–pedestrian at intersections often lead to safety–critical situations. This study aims to model the crash avoidance behaviors of vehicles during interactions with pedestrians in near-miss scenarios, contributing to the development of collision avoidance systems and safety-aware traffic simulations. Unmanned aerial vehicles were leveraged to collect high-resolution trajectory data of vehicle–pedestrian at urban intersections. A new surrogate safety measure, curvilinear time-to-collision (CurvTTC), was employed to identify vehicle–pedestrian near-miss scenarios. CurvTTC takes into account the curved trajectories of road users instead of assuming straight-line future trajectories, making it particularly suitable for safety analysis at intersections, where turning vehicles usually follow curved paths. An effective algorithm considering predicted trajectories and collision types was designed to compute CurvTTC. When CurvTTC was applied to capture vehicle–pedestrian conflicts at intersections, it demonstrated superior performance in identifying risks more accurately compared to other surrogate safety measures, emphasizing the importance of considering the curved trajectories of road users. Further, a novel deep deterministic policy gradient based on the Mamba network (Mamba-DDPG) approach was used to model vehicles’ crash avoidance behaviors during the vehicle–pedestrian conflicts captured. Results revealed that the Mamba-DDPG approach effectively learned the vehicle behaviors sequentially in both lateral and longitudinal dimensions during near-miss scenarios with pedestrians. The Mamba-DDPG approach achieved superior predictive accuracy by utilizing Mamba’s dynamic data reweighting, which prioritizes critical states. This resulted in better performance compared to both the standard DDPG and the Transformer-enhanced DDPG (Transformer-DDPG) methods. The Mamba-DDPG approach was employed to reconstruct evasive trajectories of vehicles when approaching pedestrians and its effectiveness in capturing the underlying policy of crash avoidance behaviors was validated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 107984"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of a novel hybrid multigroup statistical approach to investigate the factors affecting crash severity","authors":"Mahsa Jafari,&nbsp;Bhagwant Persaud","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying the complex relationships contributing to crash severity is vital for effective road safety strategies but can be challenging. This study explores a hybrid Structural Equation Modeling/Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (SEM-FsQCA) technique to analyze these relationships, including moderation effects. By integrating SEM and FsQCA to offer a more comprehensive analysis, it overcomes a key challenge of traditional methods—the inability to simultaneously address complex causal relationships and interaction effects. Also investigated was the potential of the Synthesizing Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for addressing the inherently imbalanced nature of the crash severity and other data used for the analysis. Utilizing a database of Ohio collector roads as a case study, a multigroup analysis was also implemented to analyze factors in lower and higher-income neighbourhoods, which were characterized by imbalanced samples, and assess how combinations of road and environmental variables affect crash severity on roads adjacent to these two neighbourhoods. The SEM results indicated that, regardless of the neighbourhood income level, age, percentage of grade, the proportion of the population having a diploma or higher, horizontal curve, and speed limit all significantly affect crash severity. Those results did indicate that the effects of independent and moderating variables are significantly different for the two neighbourhoods. Using FsQCA, the causal configurations leading to higher crash severity were explored for the two neighbourhood categories. The results of the case study revealed that crash prevention measures could be more effectively developed for crashes based on the income level of neighbourhoods adjacent to the collector roads investigated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 107985"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensation seeking and crashes among young cyclists","authors":"Sergio A. Useche ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Mora ,&nbsp;Francisco Alonso ,&nbsp;Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While young cyclists remain overrepresented in cycling crash figures, effective actions to mitigate their risks remain understudied and underapplied, especially in regions with low cycling tradition and weak or fragmented governance, as is the case in most Hispanic countries. One key emerging issue is the potential influence of personality traits such as sensation seeking (SS) on young cyclists’ behavior and safety outcomes. This study aimed to assess the relationships among SS, cycling behavior, and safety-related outcomes among a sample of young cyclists. Data were collected from 945 cyclists aged 18–25 from five Hispanic countries, who responded to an electronic survey on personality traits and cycling-related topics. Significant associations were found between sensation seeking and risk-related cycling behaviors, as well as gender differences in SS, risky cycling behavior, and self-reported cycling crash rates, with males exhibiting higher values in all categories. Path analyses suggest that SS predicts self-reported crashes through the full mediation of both deliberate (traffic violations) and unintentional (errors) risky road behaviors, with the former having a greater explanatory effect on young cyclists’ self-reported crash figures. The findings of this study highlight the need to address under-researched issues such as sensation seeking (SS) and risk-taking behavior through evidence-based interventions aimed at improving the safety of young cyclists. This is particularly relevant in countries with similar demographic characteristics and further nascent cycling cultures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 107970"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}