Accident; analysis and prevention最新文献

{"title":"Interchange configurations safety comparison tool","authors":"Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Scott Himes","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Interstate System is a fully access controlled surface transportation network connecting diverse geographical areas for the movement of people and goods. It is of national interest to preserve and enhance this system. Service interchanges are critical facilities linking State and Local roads to the Interstate System. When the need arises to insert a new interchange or modify an existing interchange, the request is presented in the Interchange Justification Report (IJR). Although many IJRs are submitted annually, the types of interchanges proposed are limited. Improvements in traffic operation due to proposed interchanges are usually well-described based on traffic analysis results. However, the safety performance of proposed interchanges is often not well substantiated due to a lack of safety modeling tools. Historic data indicates that high-traffic facilities like interchanges exhibit stable traffic crash patterns over time, meaning they should be predictable. Although many factors are known to induce traffic crashes, the safety community hasn’t fully grasped how to properly quantify those factors. Decomposing an interchange into simple components and adding up the components’ annual crash predictions generally doesn’t yield results that match field data. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) developed the Interchange Safety Analysis Tool (ISAT) and supported the development of its enhanced version, ISATe. Both of these tools decompose interchanges into simple components for analysis. The FHWA recently completed a study treating the service interchange as a whole and using input data typically available in the planning phase to predict the safety performance of planned service interchanges. It includes the safety predictions of eight interchange configurations representing 78 percent of all interchanges considered in IJRs reviewed by FHWA. This paper presents the functionalities of this tool and explains how the tool may be used. This tool gives the IJR reviewers a consistent methodology for assessing the safety performance of proposed service interchange projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 108074"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143900379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do freeway tunnel portal locations and the corresponding horizontal alignment affect traffic safety? Insights from driving simulation experiment and reliability analysis","authors":"Yonghong Yang ,&nbsp;Yixi Hu ,&nbsp;Chuangbo Xu ,&nbsp;Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Tao Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous research has indicated that freeway tunnel portals are prone to traffic accidents, with alignment at tunnel portal being a significant factor influencing crash occurrence. However, how to ensure safe design of freeway tunnel portal alignment remains unclear. This study developed a freeway model with five tunnels, whose portals are located at different positions along a tangent-curve section, to comprehensively investigate the impact of portal locations on driving behavior and traffic safety. Microscopic driving parameters were obtained through experiments and further analyzed using reliability analysis. Based on real-world crash data, two failure modes were considered: insufficient stopping sight distance and excessive lane departure. The probability of failure (PoF) was calculated using the Monte-Carlo sampling algorithm as an effective indicator of driving risk. To further explore various features affect tunnel portal traffic safety, sensitivity analysis was conducted on four key indicators, include curve radius, spiral length, pavement friction coefficient, and driving speed. The results show that the design locations of the tunnel portal significantly affect drivers’ speed and lane departure behavior. When the portal is located on a tangent section, the distribution of driver speed and lane departure behavior are the most concentrated. In contrast, when the portal is situated on a circular curve or spiral section, the distribution becomes more dispersed. The failure modes and PoF are related to the portal location. Besides, the PoF based on insufficient stopping sight distance increases continuously with the curvature at the portal, while the PoF based on excessive lane departure increases with the deviation of curvature. The synthetic PoF indicates that when the portal is located 3/4 of the spiral section, the PoF is the highest, reaching up to 35.66% at the entrance and 25.31% at the exit. The curve radius, spiral length, pavement friction coefficient, and driving speed all influence the PoF at the tunnel portal. Among these factors, increasing the curve radius and ensuring a sufficient pavement friction coefficient have the most significant impact on reducing the PoF. This study proposes recommendations for the alignment design of freeway tunnel portals and traffic safety management, providing valuable references for road designers and freeway administrators to enhance the traffic safety of freeway tunnels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 108082"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143900196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the trust and behavior of experienced advanced driver assistance system drivers: An on-road study","authors":"Ruifo Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhengyu Tan ,&nbsp;Zemin Lin ,&nbsp;Ruiying Zhang ,&nbsp;Chenhui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trust in automation is crucial for the optimal utilization of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). While previous studies have examined trust in automated driving (TiAD) and its impact on behavior, there remains a need to explore how experienced drivers interact with partially automated systems in real-world contexts. This study investigates the trust and behavior of 34 experienced ADAS drivers, divided into trustful and distrustful groups, during on-road driving encompassing six typical scenarios. This study evaluates the initial and final TiAD, situational trust across six driving scenarios; and behaviors, including hands-off the steering wheel, engagement in non-driving-related activities (NDRAs), and visual behavior. Results reveal no significant change in TiAD between pre- and post-driving evaluations, but there are significant differences in TiAD and situational trust across six scenarios between the trustful and distrustful groups. Regarding behavior, trustful drivers exhibit more hands-off events and delay responses to warnings. Both groups engage in risky NDRAs with different patterns, while trustful drivers showing a higher tendency for high-risk NDRAs. Visual behavior analysis shows that trustful drivers spend less time monitoring the driving environment, particularly in complex scenarios such as lane addition/reduction, but more time focusing on the human–machine interface (HMI) overall compared to distrustful drivers. The study also explores the impact of ADAS type and mileage, showing that drivers with advanced functionality exhibit higher trust and reduced monitoring, while mileage influence trust with a turning point at around 3,000 km. With these findings, this study highlights safety risks and proposes strategies to address them. This study is expected to provide insights into trust research and ADAS optimization, enhancing driving safety and user experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108071"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic short-term crash risk prediction from traffic conflicts at signalized intersections with emerging mixed traffic flow: A novel conflict indicator","authors":"Chuanyun Fu ,&nbsp;Zhaoyou Lu ,&nbsp;Huahua Liu ,&nbsp;Ayinigeer Wumaierjiang","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dynamic short-term crash risk prediction derived from traffic conflicts can provide significant support for proactive safety management at signalized intersections. Especially after the formation of emerging mixed traffic flow, an accurate prediction of future crash risk can help conceive proactive crash prevention measures. However, the precision of crash risk estimation at signalized intersections with emerging mixed traffic flow is still subject to doubt, largely attributable to the lack of an exclusive conflict indicator. This situation presents considerable challenges to the dynamic short-term crash risk prediction at signalized intersections with emerging mixed traffic flow. Therefore, this study performs dynamic short-term crash risk prediction from traffic conflicts at signalized intersections with emerging mixed traffic flow by combining the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the self-attention mechanism-based online learning long short-term memory (SAM-OL-LSTM) approach. A novel conflict indicator, the time to avoid a crash (TTAC), is developed to describe traffic conflicts in the emerging mixed traffic flow. Based on TTAC, a non-stationary GEV model that considers acceleration variance as a covariate is developed to calculate the value at risk (VaR) for each minute, which is used to dynamically quantify crash risk at signalized intersections. Afterwards, the SAM-OL-LSTM approach that considers traffic volume and the uncertainty in vehicle speed distribution as two input features is proposed to dynamically predict the VaR for the future one minute based on the VaR time series data of the prior five minutes. The results indicate that: i) the proposed SAM-OL-LSTM approach outperforms baseline approaches under various MPRs in terms of prediction accuracy; ii) the application of VaR facilitates a dynamic quantification of the crash risk at an intra-minute temporal resolution; iii) the developed TTAC exhibits a strong capability in identifying traffic conflicts in the emerging mixed traffic flow at signalized intersections. The findings of this study can provide a theoretical foundation for proactive traffic control considering the future crash risk in the emerging mixed traffic flow at signalized intersections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108065"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A hybrid data mining framework to investigate roadway departure crashes on rural two-lane Highways: Applying Fast and Frugal Tree with Association Rules Mining","authors":"Ahmed Hossain ,&nbsp;Subasish Das ,&nbsp;Xiaoduan Sun ,&nbsp;Ahmed Sajid Hasan ,&nbsp;Mohammad Jalayer ,&nbsp;M.Ashifur Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The complexity of factors contributing to roadway departure (RwD) crashes on rural highways necessitate advanced analytical approaches to enhance traffic safety. This study presents a hybrid data mining framework that combines the Fast and Frugal Tree (FFT) and Association Rules Mining (ARM) algorithms to identify the patterns of RwD crashes on rural 2-lane highways in Louisiana state. The research is focused on addressing two critical research questions (RQ), RQ1: Which variable features contribute to the fatal-severe RwD crashes? RQ2: Focusing on the identified top factors contributing to fatal-severe RwD crashes, how co-occurrence of different crash-contributing factors increase the likelihood of RwD crashes? For the analysis, this research team collected crash data from the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, encompassing a total of 22,406 unique RwD crashes on rural 2-lane highways. In the first stage (addressing RQ1), the FFT model identified the top variable features contributing to fatal-severe RwD crashes, including no use of seatbelts, alcohol-impaired driver condition, male gender, dark-no-streetlight, older drivers (&gt;64 years), 12 am – 6 am, light truck, and so on. In the second stage (addressing RQ2), based on the factors identified by FFT, ARM explored how these factors interact and associate, revealing intricate drivers’ behavioral patterns related to RwD crashes. This comprehensive analysis uncovers not only the individual impact of these factors but also their combined effects, offering a deeper understanding of the dynamics of RwD crashes. This research contributes valuable insights into evidence-based, data-driven strategies to reduce the frequency and severity of RwD crashes on rural highways, advancing traffic safety initiatives and improving safety on rural 2-lane roadways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108066"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative safety analysis of take-over control mechanisms of conditionally automated vehicles","authors":"Arastoo Karimi ,&nbsp;Arash Hassani Barbin ,&nbsp;Abrar Hazoor ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Marinelli ,&nbsp;Marco Bassani","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conditionally Automated driving (CAD) represents a pivotal point in the evolution of automotive technology, bridging full automation and human intervention through effective control mechanisms that ensure safe driver-system transitions. This research consisted of a comparative analysis of take-over mechanisms, focusing on ordinary merging and diverging maneuvers and critical collision-avoidance scenarios. Three take-over control (TOC) methods, including (i) accelerating/braking, (ii) pressing a dedicated button, and (iii) steering, were investigated. Thirty participants were recruited using a mixed factorial design with both within- and between-subject factors. The experimental simulations were conducted on the fixed-base driving simulator. The participants completed three runs on a motorway track comprising ordinary merging and diverging sections, with the final run involving a sudden critical decision to avoid the collision against two crashed vehicles. Weibull accelerated failure time models with and without shared frailty, mixed effects linear regression and multiple linear regression were used to model TOC time, maximum resultant acceleration, and minimum time to collision values.</div><div>The results indicate that the pedal mechanism generally provides faster and safer takeovers, especially in critical situations, while the button mechanism results in the longest TOC times, and lowest minimum time to collision values, indicating higher risks. The steering wheel mechanism, associated with the highest maximum resultant acceleration and TOC times in merging and diverging maneuvers, suggests that lateral control may be more cognitively demanding for drivers. These findings emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate TOC mechanisms to improve the safety and efficiency of CAD systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108068"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143876571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cyclist safety in the digital age: A review of advanced warning technologies","authors":"Aisyah Nur Jannah ,&nbsp;Sara Moridpour ,&nbsp;Richard Tay ,&nbsp;Bo Du","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Improving the safety of cyclists, who are considered vulnerable road users, is essential. Implementing a warning system that alerts cyclists to nearby hazards is an effective method to improve their safety. Nevertheless, the literature needs a comprehensive and detailed review of cyclist warning systems. This paper presents a systematic review of existing studies about warning technologies and systems developed to improve cyclist safety, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (n = 78). Based on the review, it was found that the most used cyclist warning technologies were cameras with artificial intelligence (AI), ultrasonic sensors, lidar, and radar. Furthermore, there were some insights from the studies that conducted cycling experiments with the use of a warning system: (1) most participating cyclists responded positively to the warning technologies/systems, (2) most cyclists preferred auditory signals over visual or haptic signals as warning modalities, (3) warning technologies/systems influenced some cyclists’ behaviour during critical situations, such as early braking, faster reactions, increased focus, maintaining a safer distance, and temporarily reducing speed, and (4) only two studies tried to explore how warning systems affect crash risk. Future research should focus on developing warning systems that are compact, lightweight, and affordable. More studies are also needed to demonstrate the impact of the cyclist warning system on cyclists’ crash risk. This review identifies gaps in the current literature and offers a solid foundation for future studies to enhance cyclist safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108069"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does connected vehicle information reduce beyond-visual-range crash risk in foggy freeway conditions? A study based on extreme value theory","authors":"Wenhao Ren,&nbsp;Xiaohua Zhao,&nbsp;Ying Yao,&nbsp;Chen Chen,&nbsp;Qiang Fu,&nbsp;Yaowen Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Intelligent connected vehicle technology can provide drivers with connected vehicle information (CVI) to enhance traffic safety. However, the impact of CVI on safety in the case of foggy freeway beyond-visual-range conditions is currently unclear. As such, this paper introduces extreme value theory (EVT) to assess and quantify this impact. Specifically, this paper first adopted driving simulation technology to build a connected environment experimental platform. A typical foggy freeway beyond-visual-range scenario was developed, and driving simulation experiments were carried out to collect driving behavior data in both traditional environments (without CVI) and connected environments (with CVI). With this data, the peak over threshold method of EVT was used to establish generalized Pareto distribution fitting models for the four indicators of time to collision (TTC), modified time to collision (MTTC), post-encroachment time (PET), and deceleration rate to avoid a crash (DRAC), respectively, and model comparisons and selections were performed. The optimal models were then chosen for risk assessment and impact analysis, which includes both crash probability and crash damage dimensions. The results show that the DRAC-based EVT models have better data-fitting performance and higher reliability. Additionally, CVI is effective in reducing the crash risk of beyond-visual-range events on foggy freeways, and there is diversity in crash risk and the effectiveness of CVI application between different driving groups. The study in this paper further extends the EVT and also helps to better understand the action and influence mechanisms of CVI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108060"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is control necessary for drivers? Exploring the influence of human–machine collaboration modes on driving behavior and subjective perception under different hazard visibility scenarios","authors":"Yongkang Chen ,&nbsp;Jianmin Wang ,&nbsp;Fusheng Jia ,&nbsp;Xingting Wu ,&nbsp;Qi Xiao ,&nbsp;Zhaodong Wang ,&nbsp;Fang You","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Before full achieving automation, Autonomous Vehicle(AV) must undergo a transitional phase of human–machine collaborative driving. Therefore, designing appropriate Human-Machine Interface (HMI) modes of collaboration is key to ensuring both driving safety and user experience. However, existing research has rarely considered the design of human–machine collaboration modes under different Hazard Visibility scenarios. In this study, we conducted a simulated driving experiment (N = 28) to explore the effects of three HMI-based collaboration modes (HMI1, HMI2, and HMI3) on driving behavior and subjective perception under two hazard visibility scenarios (visible and invisible hazard). The designs of the three collaboration modes were primarily based on varying levels of explainability and control. The results show that in the invisible hazard scenario, drivers exhibited significantly lower situation awareness and preference compared to the visible hazard scenario. The design of HMI in different collaboration modes significantly influences drivers’ situation awareness, cognitive workload, trust, and attention distribution, with the highest satisfaction reported for HMI2 (high explainability, AV-led decision-making). Particularly in the invisible hazard scenario, HMI2 significantly improved drivers’ situation awareness and attention while minimizing cognitive workload. The study also indicates that during autonomous driving, drivers require a certain sense of control, though this does not necessarily mean they need to directly participate in decision-making. Instead, a sense of control can be fostered by augmenting the explainability of the HMI. These findings provide valuable insights for the design of human–machine interfaces in AV to enhance driving safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108067"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143867850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-term safety analysis and interdependencies of mixed-operation freeways with fully separated express lanes: A copula-based poisson lognormal lindley approach","authors":"Abdulrahman Faden ,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdel-Aty ,&nbsp;Chenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Samgyu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.108050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The I-4 Ultimate Express Lanes (ELs) are part of a major improvement project on Interstate 4, introducing innovative freeway design that impacts traffic safety and operations. This research examines safety performance and the interdependencies between general-purpose lanes (GPLs) and (ELs). Utilizing crash data from February 2022 to February 2024, short-term crash frequency models are developed at the lane-level, leveraging microscopic traffic detector data and unique geometric design features to estimate annual average weekday crash frequencies and capture temporal safety variations. The study employs Poisson Lognormal Lindley (PLN-L) model to address excessive zeros in crash data, particularly prevalent in ELs, while copula-based framework analyzes the dependency between GPL and EL crash frequencies. Frank copula provided the best fit among five tested copula structures, revealing significant dependency, especially at access points. The analysis incorporates lane-level traffic characteristics, geometric data (e.g., standard and I-4 Ultimate specific segment types (interaction between ELs and GPLs at access points), their lengths, and ramp lengths), and time-period effects. Significant variables for GPL and EL segments include lane-level traffic exposure and other factors. Key findings indicate that the average lane-occupancy in the rightmost lane significantly impacts EL safety, with higher crash rates at merge segments. For GPLs, I-4 Ultimate segments and their shorter lengths (i.e., Long [5000ft &gt;= (length) &gt; 3000ft]) are associated with GPL-related crashes. These findings contribute to developing safer, more efficient managed lane systems and offer guidance for future freeway design improvements. The study gives policymakers and engineers insights into EL safety, design, and operation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"217 ","pages":"Article 108050"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}