Charles B. Sims, James C. Mingie, Paul R. Armsworth, Mona Papeş, Xingli Giam, Gengping Zhu, Seong-Hoon Cho
{"title":"Does more uncertainty incentivize risk diversification in conservation?","authors":"Charles B. Sims, James C. Mingie, Paul R. Armsworth, Mona Papeş, Xingli Giam, Gengping Zhu, Seong-Hoon Cho","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12515","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Conservation investments must balance risk and return as the benefits and costs of conservation are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. This article investigates whether a more uncertain world will strengthen the case for conservation investments strategies that diversify risk. We consider two ways the world could be more uncertain: (1) a more uncertain future climate that increases uncertainty in conservation benefits and (2) broader market uncertainties affecting conservation costs. We use concepts from expected utility theory to highlight that, as there is more risk to diversify, the incentive and ability to diversify risk depend on relative changes in expected payoffs at each site and covariances across sites as uncertainty increases. We then illustrate our findings using an application to land protection investments in southern Appalachia. In this biodiversity hotspot, we find risk diversification is most cost-effective when conservation agencies face multiple uncertainties, and market uncertainty creates greater incentives to diversify risk than climate uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"108 1","pages":"77-105"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145706309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How stable and predictable are welfare estimates using recreation demand models?","authors":"Patrick Lloyd-Smith, Ewa Zawojska","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12508","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Economic analyses of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing estimates of welfare measures that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is important for applying them in policy. Yet, revealed preference models of recreation demand have received few temporal stability assessments compared to other nonmarket valuation methods. We use a large administrative panel dataset on campground reservations covering 10 years to study temporal stability and predictability of environmental quality welfare estimates. Welfare estimates are statistically different across years in 62% of the comparisons, and this ranges from 47%–71% depending on modeling assumptions. Using an event study design, we find evidence that week-specific welfare estimates are stable after an initial adjustment week in response to a change in environmental quality. Our findings further reveal that using 2 years of data in the modeling compared to a single year improves the prediction of future welfare measure estimates substantially, but further prediction improvements are modest when including more than 2 years of data. Predictions of welfare estimates are more consistent when using data closer in time to the prediction year. We discuss the implications of our results for using revealed preference studies in policy analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 3","pages":"846-868"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of result-based agri-environmental payments on biodiversity: Evidence from Switzerland","authors":"Sergei Schaub, Tobias Roth, Petyo Bonev","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12512","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate the effects of result-based agri-environmental payments on biodiversity using a unique dataset containing information about plant vegetation. The data include information on surveyed plant species for a large number of randomly selected plots followed over a period of 20 years in Switzerland. In our estimation, we utilize a difference-in-discontinuities approach based on exogenous variation in payments triggered by (i) a policy reform in Switzerland that led to a considerable increase in payments that was uncertain prior to the implementation and (ii) an administrative threshold of reform that defines eligibility for payment depending on the botanical quality. We find that the increase in result-based payments led to an increase in the biodiversity of plots that were almost eligible for the payments before the reform but not for plots that already satisfied the eligibility criteria. Our findings have important implications for the design of result-based payments.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 4","pages":"1228-1254"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12512","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate change: What do we do about it? Economic issues regarding agricultural adaptation and mitigation","authors":"Bruce A. McCarl","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12517","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change will undoubtedly affect many aspects of the agricultural sector as a driver of impacts, as a force stimulating adaptation to limit or exploit climate change impacts, and as a focal point for mitigation opportunities to reduce its extent. Sectoral participants will react by undertaking a variety of adaptation and mitigation actions. Adaptation is largely inevitable but may require public action to either provide public goods or support private adaptation. Agriculture will also play an important role in mitigating climate change, as in cases it can provide low-cost net greenhouse gas reductions. This paper will discuss the economic and physical characteristics of adaptation and mitigation actions that can be taken in the agricultural sector plus introduce some analysis results and possible directions. Clearly, across these areas, economists will find rich areas for economic inquiry.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 2","pages":"368-389"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantifying the Water Quality Impacts of Cropland Farming in China: A Satellite Data Approach","authors":"Chuan Tang, Yifeng Guo, Lian Feng","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12510","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We compile a unique satellite-derived panel dataset to investigate the impacts of cropland coverage on the outbreak of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in China between 2003 and 2019. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in cropland leads to a 0.5% increase in the size of HABs in lakes larger than 20 km<sup>2</sup>. The increase in cropland not only affects the size of HABs but also significantly prolongs their duration on average. Furthermore, we provide evidence of a diminishing legacy effect of cropland on HAB area over time and a nonlinear relationship between cropland area and HABs. Fertilizer leakage from cropland shapes the entire pollution mechanism, with farming practices that require elevated fertilizer posing significantly greater impacts on water quality. While the nationwide fertilizer reduction policy implemented in 2015 successfully dampens HABs in nonreservoir lakes during the initial three years, its long-term effects remain uncertain. This study highlights the potential of satellite imagery data for economic analyses of nutrient pollution in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 3","pages":"958-989"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jared Gars, Ram Fishman, Avinash Kishore, Yoav Rothler, Patrick S. Ward
{"title":"Confidence and information usage: Evidence from soil testing in India","authors":"Jared Gars, Ram Fishman, Avinash Kishore, Yoav Rothler, Patrick S. Ward","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12513","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Informational barriers are often considered to be a major constraint to the adoption of improved farming practices, inputs, and technologies by smallholder farmers. In the Indian context, it is widely believed that farmers misapply chemical fertilizers because they lack scientific information on soil conditions and corresponding fertilizer recommendations, thus resulting in imbalanced and potentially detrimental fertilizer application. Policymakers are frequently interested in providing farmers with various streams of information to overcome these informational barriers to optimize farming activities. However, such informational interventions frequently fail either because generic recommendations may be ill-suited for decision makers in highly heterogeneous agricultural environments or because farmers' beliefs may be so entrenched as to make them unresponsive to new information. We implemented a field experiment in Bihar, India to test whether plot-specific fertilizer recommendations affect farmers' fertilizer use. We find little evidence for sizable impacts on fertilizer use in general, though impacts are more apparent for low cost or costless recommendations such as increasing the use of highly subsidized fertilizers or shifting the timing of application. Despite modest evidence of such effects, even those fall short of their potential magnitude. We show that treated farmers who are less confident in their subjective beliefs about optimal fertilizer application rates (i.e., with more disperse priors) are more responsive to the recommendations and have a higher ex ante willingness to pay for soil testing. These results suggest that heterogeneity in beliefs may constrain the overall effectiveness of information provision, even when the information is tailored to individual farms.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 5","pages":"1406-1437"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12513","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145022337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anna Malinovskaya, Timothy J. Richards, Bradley Rickard
{"title":"Destination categories, channel choice, and beer distribution laws","authors":"Anna Malinovskaya, Timothy J. Richards, Bradley Rickard","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12516","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Consumers tend to choose the type of store, or grocery channel, on the basis of “destination categories,” or categories that tend to be important attractors relative to others. Whether or not a category is truly important to generating incremental market share, however, is a difficult empirical question, because there has been little exogenous variation that permits a clear test of whether categories tend to attract traffic. In this study, we leverage a change in beer distribution laws in the state of Colorado that permitted full-strength beer to be sold for the first time in traditional supermarkets. We use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to test whether the introduction of a new category of products represented an incremental gain in channel attraction using both consumer panel and retail scanner data. Our results show that the introduction of beer into grocery stores in Colorado led to an increase in total weekly sales (1.2%) and a relative increase in expenditures for some categories, notably those that are likely to be complementary to beer purchases. Additional results using the consumer panel indicate an increase in the frequency of grocery store visits by beer-purchasing households as well as an increase in monthly grocery store expenditures (8.0%) among beer-purchasing households.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"108 1","pages":"143-175"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12516","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145706636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Horizontal merger simulation in a Cournot oligopoly with competitive fringe: The U.S. broiler industry case","authors":"Lulu Pi, Tomislav Vukina","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12511","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article analyzes the impact of a recent merger between the third and the seventh largest broiler producers in the United States on the equilibrium of the downstream broiler market. Reflective of the broiler industry market structure, in the theoretical part of the article we adopt the model of a Cournot oligopoly with a competitive fringe and then apply merger simulation to predict the welfare effects. We fit our theoretical framework to the pre-merger data under the assumption of different numbers of oligopoly firms. The results suggest that the merger between Sanderson Farms and Wayne Farms will significantly increase the market price of chicken meat and decrease consumer surplus, and that the magnitude of these impacts hinges on the size of the oligopoly. The net welfare effect could be positive or negative, but it is not statistically significant at the 5% level.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 3","pages":"869-887"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Barriers to the cross-border diffusion of climate change policies","authors":"Trung V. Vu","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12514","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper establishes a statistically and economically significant relationship between national responses to climate change and genetic distance, which is a proxy for countries' dissimilarities in cultures, ancestry, and historical legacies associated with long-term exposure to divergent historical trajectories. It finds that countries that are genetically distant to the world-leading nation-state of climate change mitigation tend to experience barriers to the cross-border diffusion of climate change policies and hence exhibit worse responses to climate change. A potential explanation is that climate change polices are more likely to spread between closely related countries with more similar preferences for the provision of the public goods of environmental and climate protection. The findings imply that strengthening climate change mitigation requires overcoming obstacles to international policy diffusion.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"108 1","pages":"106-142"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12514","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145706399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}