{"title":"Integration of the US cannabis market","authors":"Barry K. Goodwin","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12488","url":null,"abstract":"I examine the degree to which markets for cannabis are integrated using semiparametric models of spatial price linkages among US states. US attitudes toward the use of cannabis have evolved and, at the same time, laws restricting its use have been eliminated in many states. Cannabis presents the case of a unique commodity for which any interstate trade is explicitly illegal. A voluminous empirical literature has examined spatial arbitrage, trade, and market integration. Most of these studies utilize linear time series regression models. More recent work has considered increasingly more nonlinear models of market integration. I utilize fully nonlinear semiparametric generalized additive models to evaluate the spatial integration of US cannabis markets. The results confirm important nonlinearities in price relationships. Nonlinear price transmission elasticities are derived from the nonparametric modeling results. The results suggest that California cannabis markets are largely integrated with states across the nation. I find that California, which is a leading cannabis exporter, plays a price leadership role. Production of cannabis in California far exceeds the amount that can be legally grown and sold, and much of this cannabis is exported to other states. Colorado, a second primary cannabis market, generally operates in isolation from cannabis markets in other states. The likely mechanism integrating cannabis markets is the thriving trade in illegal cannabis, which has long preceded recent state‐level legislative actions that have legalized cannabis use.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"53 46","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141923875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regulatory decentralization and food safety: evidence from China","authors":"Wen Lin, Jiangyuan Liang","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12484","url":null,"abstract":"It is not clear, a priori, whether a centralized or decentralized institutional arrangement is better at providing public goods. This study investigates how decentralization of regulatory authority affects public good provision, focusing on food safety. Using a natural experiment that transfers food safety regulatory authority over the food processing and manufacturing sector from provincial to city‐level governments, we find a 51% decrease in the average number of food safety incidents within cities that experienced the decentralization reform. Decentralization reduces food safety incidents by rectifying information asymmetry in food safety regulations and by increasing local food safety laws and regulations. Additional analyses show that decentralization primarily improves the food safety of larger and more experienced firms, and it has not harmed the total revenue of large‐scale food processing and manufacturing firms. Our study demonstrates the importance of information available to regulatory authorities in food safety regulation and highlights the role of local information in the decentralized provision of public goods.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"18 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141645865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chad Fiechter, Todd H. Kuethe, Michael Langemeier, James Mintert
{"title":"Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market","authors":"Chad Fiechter, Todd H. Kuethe, Michael Langemeier, James Mintert","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12481","url":null,"abstract":"Farmers make production decisions despite future output price uncertainty. As a result, farmers' expectation of future output price is an important determinant of investment and the supply of commodities. However, our understanding of the process by which farmers form their expectations is still limited. This study uses direct measures of farmers' financial condition expectations collected through the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to measure the effect of surprise information on farmers' short‐ and long‐term expectations. The effect is identified using an event study framework previously used to examine the impact of market information on commodity futures markets. Using ordered logistic regressions and variation between professional and United States Department of Agriculture forecasts of corn ending stocks, we demonstrate that farmers' short‐term expectations of the financial condition of the broader agricultural economy is altered by surprise information. This study provides a novel step toward understanding the process by which farmers incorporate new information in their price expectations. For example, our findings suggest that farmers perceive short‐term corn market information surprises will affect the U.S. agricultural sector to a greater degree than their farm. Additionally, farmers do not perceive that short‐term corn market information surprises will carry long‐term implications.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":" 36","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141680620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shaming, stringency, and shirking: Evidence from food‐safety inspections","authors":"John Bovay","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12480","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the responses of chicken producers to public disclosure of quality information (or categorization) regarding Salmonella in chicken carcasses. Producers exert effort to attain better categorization and shirk when failing to meet the thresholds required for better categorization. Public disclosure reduces this shirking effect. However, some producers shirk even under public disclosure when the threshold for disclosure is too stringent. The results suggest that the most effective quality disclosure policies would either disclose continuous (noncategorical) information or impose fines or other sanctions on producers attaining the poorest quality.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":" 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141680789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic sanctions and agricultural trade","authors":"Mario Larch, Jeff Luckstead, Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12473","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12473","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Economic sanctions are more popular than ever. But do they affect agricultural trade? Combining two new datasets and capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature, we investigate the effects of sanctions on international trade of agricultural products. We find that trade sanctions impede agricultural trade, whereas other sanctions do not show any significant impact. Complete trade sanctions have led to about a 67% decrease in the agricultural trade between the sanctioned and sanctioning countries, or a corresponding tariff equivalent of 25%, and we also obtain significant estimates for partial sanctions. At the industry level, we find substantial heterogeneity depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. The 2014 sanctions on Russia substantially decreased Russia's agricultural trade, mainly due to reduced trade with the EU but also due to reduced trade with other countries. Although no definitive evidence exists that sanctions alter the actions of governments of receiving countries, this paper provides broad evidence that sanctions hamper agrifood trade and hurt producers, consumers, and real output.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 4","pages":"1477-1517"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12473","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141124510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Heterogeneous effects of Medicaid expansion on food security measures","authors":"Anne T. Byrne, Bhagyashree Katare, John Lowrey","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12471","url":null,"abstract":"The 2014 Affordable Care Act (ACA) included state‐level Medicaid expansion programs, which have been credited with gains in food security for low‐income, able‐bodied, childless adults without dependents (ABAWDs). Yet, ABAWDs represent a diverse cohort who experience disparities along racial and ethnic lines, which could be partly responsible for differences in health‐related outcomes. This study uses data from the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement to estimate the heterogeneous effect of ACA Medicaid expansion on food security among ABAWDs by race, ethnicity, and income. We find that Medicaid expansion improved food security for households headed by White ABAWDs—particularly those with incomes above 50% of the federal poverty line—but we do not find similarly significant evidence of gains among some historically marginalized populations. We find weak evidence that suggests that households headed by Hispanic ABAWDs may have experienced gains. However, Black‐headed ABAWD households had significantly worse food insecurity relative to the pooled sample of all races and ethnicities. Our results suggest that the relationship between healthcare access and food security is complex and, although spillover effects from a change in healthcare policy can influence food security status, such effects may not be equitably distributed across race, ethnicity, or income.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":" 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140995043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Food security dynamics and measurement error","authors":"Ian K. McDonough, Daniel L. Millimet","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12470","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine intra- and intergenerational food security dynamics in the United States using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) while accounting for measurement error. We apply recently developed methods on the partial identification of transition matrices and show that accounting for measurement error is crucial as even modest errors can dwarf the information contained in the data. Nonetheless, we find that much can be learned under fairly weak assumptions; the strongest and most informative assumption being that measurement errors are serially uncorrelated. In particular, although the evidence—both intragenerational and intergenerational—is consistent with significant mobility, we also find food security status to be persistent for at least some households in the tails of the distribution. We further document some heterogeneities in dynamics across households differentiated by race and education. Finally, the impact of measurement error in the context of underlying dynamics is widely applicable to other areas of applied microeconomics generally as well as to food security dynamics in less developed countries specifically.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1714-1744"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12470","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qingxiao Li, Metin Çakır, Timothy K. M. Beatty, Timothy A. Park
{"title":"Differential price pass-through in organic and conventional fresh fruit and vegetable markets","authors":"Qingxiao Li, Metin Çakır, Timothy K. M. Beatty, Timothy A. Park","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12469","url":null,"abstract":"Organic food production growth has remained relatively slow compared to organic retail sales growth in the United States. This paper questions whether the conduct of downstream agents plays any role in explaining the difference. Mainly, we shed light on structural differences between organic and conventional fresh fruit and vegetable markets by examining differential price pass-through rates. We estimate a rolling-window retail pricing model using retail and wholesale price data from five metropolitan statistical areas with terminal markets in the United States. We find that pass-through rates are 10 to 15 percentage points lower in the organic market, and the differences are statistically significant. We also find that the gap between pass-through rates narrows as the organic market share increases. Our results suggest the organic market is significantly less competitive than the conventional market. The implication is that farmers may have less incentive to convert to organic farming as they may not capture the full retail price premium consumers pay.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"255 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140569134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michela Faccioli, Diana M. Tingley, Mattia C. Mancini, Ian J. Bateman
{"title":"Who should benefit from environmental policies? Social preferences and nonmarket values for the distribution of environmental improvements","authors":"Michela Faccioli, Diana M. Tingley, Mattia C. Mancini, Ian J. Bateman","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12467","url":null,"abstract":"The literature is replete with valuations of the costs and benefits of environmental change, yet the issue of where those impacts fall across society is rarely considered. This is a significant knowledge gap given clear evidence of social preferences regarding distributional effects reflected in both policy and protest. As an initial contribution, we examine preferences regarding projects designed to more than offset the biodiversity impacts of housing developments in England, as mandated under the UK's Net Gain legislation. Employing a nationally representative sample, a Discrete Choice Experiment values options for alternative characteristics and location of both development and offset sites, including their situation relative to both the respondent's home and neighborhoods of different socio-economic status. This defines sets of “winners” and “losers” varying across wealth levels. Results show that respondents did not necessarily prefer that the communities losing biodiversity due to development must also be the beneficiaries of the biodiversity enhancement under Net Gain rules. This is particularly the case where the communities losing biodiversity are located far from the respondent and are high wealth. Instead, our findings show that respondents are willing to pay more for Net Gain policies delivering biodiversity improvements to low or average (rather than high) wealth communities. These results highlight the importance of considering distributional concerns when measuring the welfare impacts of environmental policies and the potential role of such policies as redistributive tools to reduce social inequalities.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140325130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jessica B. Hoel, Hope Michelson, Ben Norton, Victor Manyong
{"title":"Misattribution prevents learning","authors":"Jessica B. Hoel, Hope Michelson, Ben Norton, Victor Manyong","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12466","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12466","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In many markets, consumers believe things about products that are not true. We study how incorrect beliefs about product quality can persist even after a consumer has used a product many times. We explore the example of fertilizer in East Africa. Farmers believe much local fertilizer is counterfeit or adulterated; however, multiple studies have established that nearly all fertilizer in the area is good quality. We develop a learning model to explain how these incorrect beliefs persist. We show that when the distributions of outcomes using good and bad quality products overlap, agents can misattribute bad luck or bad management to bad quality. Our learning model and its simulations show that the presence of misattribution inhibits learning about quality and that goods like fertilizer with unobservable quality that are inputs into production processes characterized by stochasticity should be thought of as credence goods, not experience goods. Our results suggest that policy makers should pursue quality assurance programs for products that are vulnerable to misattribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1571-1594"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12466","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}