{"title":"Commodity price volatility and the psychological well-being of farmers","authors":"Saurabh Singhal, Finn Tarp","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12468","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effects of income uncertainty on mental health in Vietnam. We assess this issue using volatility in the price of coffee, a key export commodity, that exposes small coffee farmers to income uncertainty. Using household panel data collected over 2016–2020, we find an increase in volatility of the international coffee price to be positively associated with psychological distress among coffee farmers. The magnitude is greater for men, and the findings are robust to several checks. These results are further substantiated by corresponding estimates for related health measures and self-reported happiness. Channels include an increase in mental stress due to pessimistic expectations of future economic well-being, increased cognitive load and alcohol consumption, and reduced social capital. The results highlight the psychological toll of living with income uncertainty and provide support for the provision of social safety nets that protect farmers from frequent commodity price fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140074748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tung Nguyen Huy, Guigonan Serge Adjognon, Daan van Soest
{"title":"Combatting forest fires in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burkina Faso","authors":"Tung Nguyen Huy, Guigonan Serge Adjognon, Daan van Soest","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12464","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12464","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forest fires are among the main drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa. We use remote sensing data on forest fires and remaining tree cover to estimate the effectiveness of a project targeted at reducing fire incidences in 12 protected forests in arid Burkina Faso. The project consisted of two components that were implemented in the villages surrounding the target forests: a campaign aimed at raising community awareness about the detrimental effects of forest fires, and a program to support establishing and maintaining forest fire prevention infrastructures. Using the synthetic control method, we find that the project resulted in an overall reduction of <span></span><math>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>35</mn>\u0000 <mo>%</mo>\u0000 </mrow></math> in the number of days on which an average forest grid cell was detected to be on fire in the month of the year when fires tend to be most prevalent—November, at the very end of the agricultural season. This impact is, however, short lived (as the reduction only occurred in the November months in the first 4 years of the program), and the overall reduction in forest fire occurrences was not sufficiently large to result in a detectable increase in vegetation cover. We then try to uncover the underlying mechanisms to shed light on which of the project's components were effective to also learn how the program can be improved.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1684-1713"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12464","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140004065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hannah Wing, Daniel P. Bigelow, Kate Binzen Fuller
{"title":"Does temporary land retirement promote organic adoption? Evidence from the Conservation Reserve Program","authors":"Hannah Wing, Daniel P. Bigelow, Kate Binzen Fuller","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12465","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12465","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) allows agricultural producers to temporarily remove environmentally sensitive farmland from production in exchange for a yearly rental payment. While enrolled in the CRP, land typically complies with standards for organic certification, which prohibit the use of synthetic pesticides and fertilizers for three years prior to harvest. In this paper, we study the extent to which recent participation in the CRP promotes organic certification. We do so by estimating the relationship between exiting CRP contracts and new organic certifications at the county level over the years 2011–2020. Our primary results are based on an instrumental variables estimator, where we use the number of expiring CRP contracts as an instrument for endogenous net-exiting CRP contracts. We find that the exit of land from the CRP leads to increases in organic adoption, and estimate a 0.029% increase in new organic operations in response to a 1% increase in net-exiting CRP contracts. By highlighting this important co-effect of the CRP, our analysis contributes to contemporary discussions exploring the long-term linkages between land conservation policies, organic agriculture, and other conservation practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1745-1774"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140010978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jayson Beckman, Noé J. Nava, Angelica S. Williams, Steven Zahniser
{"title":"Land competition and welfare effects from Mexico's proposal to ban genetically engineered corn","authors":"Jayson Beckman, Noé J. Nava, Angelica S. Williams, Steven Zahniser","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12463","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico has increased its meat production and exports and become more dependent on imported feedstuffs such as genetically engineered (GE) corn. Mexico recently banned the use of GE corn in corn-based foods and called for a gradual substitution away from the use of GE corn for other uses (e.g., feed). This paper considers how a complete ban on GE corn might affect Mexican households using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact over the medium run (5 years). Results indicate that Mexico decreases corn imports by 76.9% and increases corn production by 65.6%—an increase that would require 3.3 million hectares more land for corn. The policy leads to a 24.8% increase in Mexico's corn price and up to a 6% increase in the prices of other agricultural products. But Mexico might have difficulty shifting land to corn; as such, we consider an alternative scenario that restricts land movements. We find that impacts are further exacerbated in this scenario—for example, corn prices triple. Our final contribution is to pair these results with a compensating variation calculation based on the almost ideal demand system. We find that Mexican households would need to spend, on average, between 6.7 and 13.9% more on food, depending on the scenario, to compensate for the resulting price escalations. Ultimately, our results show that a move toward greater food sovereignty in Mexico is ultimately borne by consumers via higher food prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 3","pages":"1300-1325"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of geographic market definition in analysis of grocery retailing","authors":"Yanghao Wang, Metin Çakır, Timothy A. Park","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12461","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how estimates of household food demand elasticities and store profit margins vary with alternative geographic market extents using structural models of household store choice and retailer competition. Our consumer store choice model is novel, simultaneously accounting for the heterogeneity of store choice sets, households' travel distance to stores, and their store-specific shopping basket prices. We estimate the models using a unique combination of datasets on grocery purchases. We find that the geographic market extent is positively associated with household demand elasticity and negatively associated with store profit margins. The maximum market extent at which changes in demand elasticities become statistically insignificant varies by retailers, ranging between 10 and 16 km. These findings are robust to alternative assumptions of store competition. Our results imply that overlooking the locality of retail competition can result in overestimating the magnitudes of household demand elasticities while underestimating store profit margins, characterizing a relatively more competitive market.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amelia Ahles, Marco A. Palma, Andreas C. Drichoutis
{"title":"Testing the effectiveness of lottery incentives in online experiments","authors":"Amelia Ahles, Marco A. Palma, Andreas C. Drichoutis","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12460","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12460","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article investigates the effectiveness of lottery incentive schemes for eliciting consumer valuations in large-scale online experiments. We implement a fully incentivized condition within a geographically dispersed sample of consumers in which bids for a Criollo steak elicited by a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism are realized with certainty and the products are priority shipped in dry-ice coolers. The fully incentivized condition is compared to between-subject random incentivized schemes, in which only a fraction of subjects realize their choices. We tested two treatments with a 10% probability framed as a percentage or an absolute number of subjects, one treatment with a 1% probability, and a purely hypothetical reference condition. The results reveal that between-subject random incentivized schemes with 10% and 1% payment probabilities are effective in eliciting valuations that are statistically indistinguishable from the fully incentivized scheme. In addition to finding insignificant statistical differences between 10% and 1% and the fully incentivized scheme, all incentivized conditions mitigate hypothetical bias, resulting in lower product valuations than the purely hypothetical condition. We contribute a novel methodological framework for conducting large-scale experiments with geographically diverse and representative subjects, increasing the external validity and producing reliable valuations while significantly reducing financial and logistic constraints.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 4","pages":"1435-1453"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12460","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding inequality in U.S. farm subsidies using large‐scale administrative data","authors":"Jisang Yu, Sunghun Lim","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12462","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large‐scale, individual‐level administrative data set for 2008–2021, we document the inequality in farm program payments across all recipients in the U.S. By examining the relationship between within‐county inequality and demographic characteristics of farmers in a county, we find that there is a positive association between the share of Black operators and within‐county inequality. We also provide suggestive evidence that a substantial portion of racial and gender disparities in farm payments are associated with crop production characteristics. We then utilize name information in farm payment data to infer the race and gender of individual payees. The analysis using approximately 4.9 million payee‐by‐year observations and predicted race and gender information of those payees shows that payments are lower for producers who are Black, Hispanic, and female. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the equality of farm subsidy distribution covering most U.S. farm payment programs at a granular level over time. We also provide an empirical approach of utilizing name information from the administrative data that opens up more possibilities for racial and gender inequity research in agricultural economics.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"63 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139836514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding inequality in U.S. farm subsidies using large‐scale administrative data","authors":"Jisang Yu, Sunghun Lim","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12462","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large‐scale, individual‐level administrative data set for 2008–2021, we document the inequality in farm program payments across all recipients in the U.S. By examining the relationship between within‐county inequality and demographic characteristics of farmers in a county, we find that there is a positive association between the share of Black operators and within‐county inequality. We also provide suggestive evidence that a substantial portion of racial and gender disparities in farm payments are associated with crop production characteristics. We then utilize name information in farm payment data to infer the race and gender of individual payees. The analysis using approximately 4.9 million payee‐by‐year observations and predicted race and gender information of those payees shows that payments are lower for producers who are Black, Hispanic, and female. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the equality of farm subsidy distribution covering most U.S. farm payment programs at a granular level over time. We also provide an empirical approach of utilizing name information from the administrative data that opens up more possibilities for racial and gender inequity research in agricultural economics.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"24 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139777081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can revenue index insurance outperform yield index insurance?","authors":"Richard A. Gallenstein, John P. Dougherty","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12445","url":null,"abstract":"Index insurance programs in developing countries have focused almost entirely on agricultural production risk (i.e., yield) while largely avoiding output marketing risk (i.e., price). This omission may miss an important constraint on smallholder investment and may partially explain underwhelming demand for yield‐based insurance policies. Here, we explore the viability of an area‐revenue index insurance policy and how its performance may compare to that of an area‐yield index insurance policy. Using data from Ghana, we estimate reduced‐form regression analysis and calibrate a simulation model, generating several important results. We show that there is a negative correlation between farm investment and covariate price risk. Moreover, our simulation predicts that in many market contexts, area‐revenue index insurance suffers from less basis risk, exhibits higher demand, and is more effective at crowding in advanced input adoption compared to area‐yield index insurance. Our results also demonstrate important contexts in which area‐yield index insurance outperforms area‐revenue index insurance. We therefore find that revenue insurance may be a valuable and impactful product in Ghana but would not outperform area‐yield index insurance in all contexts.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"137 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139780689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can revenue index insurance outperform yield index insurance?","authors":"Richard A. Gallenstein, John P. Dougherty","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12445","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12445","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Index insurance programs in developing countries have focused almost entirely on agricultural production risk (i.e., yield) while largely avoiding output marketing risk (i.e., price). This omission may miss an important constraint on smallholder investment and may partially explain underwhelming demand for yield-based insurance policies. Here, we explore the viability of an area-revenue index insurance policy and how its performance may compare to that of an area-yield index insurance policy. Using data from Ghana, we estimate reduced-form regression analysis and calibrate a simulation model, generating several important results. We show that there is a negative correlation between farm investment and covariate price risk. Moreover, our simulation predicts that in many market contexts, area-revenue index insurance suffers from less basis risk, exhibits higher demand, and is more effective at crowding in advanced input adoption compared to area-yield index insurance. Our results also demonstrate important contexts in which area-yield index insurance outperforms area-revenue index insurance. We therefore find that revenue insurance may be a valuable and impactful product in Ghana but would not outperform area-yield index insurance in all contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1648-1683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139840495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}