Jayson Beckman, Noé J. Nava, Angelica S. Williams, Steven Zahniser
{"title":"Land competition and welfare effects from Mexico's proposal to ban genetically engineered corn","authors":"Jayson Beckman, Noé J. Nava, Angelica S. Williams, Steven Zahniser","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12463","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico has increased its meat production and exports and become more dependent on imported feedstuffs such as genetically engineered (GE) corn. Mexico recently banned the use of GE corn in corn-based foods and called for a gradual substitution away from the use of GE corn for other uses (e.g., feed). This paper considers how a complete ban on GE corn might affect Mexican households using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact over the medium run (5 years). Results indicate that Mexico decreases corn imports by 76.9% and increases corn production by 65.6%—an increase that would require 3.3 million hectares more land for corn. The policy leads to a 24.8% increase in Mexico's corn price and up to a 6% increase in the prices of other agricultural products. But Mexico might have difficulty shifting land to corn; as such, we consider an alternative scenario that restricts land movements. We find that impacts are further exacerbated in this scenario—for example, corn prices triple. Our final contribution is to pair these results with a compensating variation calculation based on the almost ideal demand system. We find that Mexican households would need to spend, on average, between 6.7 and 13.9% more on food, depending on the scenario, to compensate for the resulting price escalations. Ultimately, our results show that a move toward greater food sovereignty in Mexico is ultimately borne by consumers via higher food prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 3","pages":"1300-1325"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of geographic market definition in analysis of grocery retailing","authors":"Yanghao Wang, Metin Çakır, Timothy A. Park","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12461","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12461","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine how estimates of household food demand elasticities and store profit margins vary with alternative geographic market extents using structural models of household store choice and retailer competition. Our consumer store choice model is novel, simultaneously accounting for the heterogeneity of store choice sets, households' travel distance to stores, and their store-specific shopping basket prices. We estimate the models using a unique combination of datasets on grocery purchases. We find that the geographic market extent is positively associated with household demand elasticity and negatively associated with store profit margins. The maximum market extent at which changes in demand elasticities become statistically insignificant varies by retailers, ranging between 10 and 16 km. These findings are robust to alternative assumptions of store competition. Our results imply that overlooking the locality of retail competition can result in overestimating the magnitudes of household demand elasticities while underestimating store profit margins, characterizing a relatively more competitive market.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 1","pages":"208-230"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amelia Ahles, Marco A. Palma, Andreas C. Drichoutis
{"title":"Testing the effectiveness of lottery incentives in online experiments","authors":"Amelia Ahles, Marco A. Palma, Andreas C. Drichoutis","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12460","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12460","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article investigates the effectiveness of lottery incentive schemes for eliciting consumer valuations in large-scale online experiments. We implement a fully incentivized condition within a geographically dispersed sample of consumers in which bids for a Criollo steak elicited by a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism are realized with certainty and the products are priority shipped in dry-ice coolers. The fully incentivized condition is compared to between-subject random incentivized schemes, in which only a fraction of subjects realize their choices. We tested two treatments with a 10% probability framed as a percentage or an absolute number of subjects, one treatment with a 1% probability, and a purely hypothetical reference condition. The results reveal that between-subject random incentivized schemes with 10% and 1% payment probabilities are effective in eliciting valuations that are statistically indistinguishable from the fully incentivized scheme. In addition to finding insignificant statistical differences between 10% and 1% and the fully incentivized scheme, all incentivized conditions mitigate hypothetical bias, resulting in lower product valuations than the purely hypothetical condition. We contribute a novel methodological framework for conducting large-scale experiments with geographically diverse and representative subjects, increasing the external validity and producing reliable valuations while significantly reducing financial and logistic constraints.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 4","pages":"1435-1453"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12460","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139953687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding inequality in U.S. farm subsidies using large‐scale administrative data","authors":"Jisang Yu, Sunghun Lim","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12462","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large‐scale, individual‐level administrative data set for 2008–2021, we document the inequality in farm program payments across all recipients in the U.S. By examining the relationship between within‐county inequality and demographic characteristics of farmers in a county, we find that there is a positive association between the share of Black operators and within‐county inequality. We also provide suggestive evidence that a substantial portion of racial and gender disparities in farm payments are associated with crop production characteristics. We then utilize name information in farm payment data to infer the race and gender of individual payees. The analysis using approximately 4.9 million payee‐by‐year observations and predicted race and gender information of those payees shows that payments are lower for producers who are Black, Hispanic, and female. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the equality of farm subsidy distribution covering most U.S. farm payment programs at a granular level over time. We also provide an empirical approach of utilizing name information from the administrative data that opens up more possibilities for racial and gender inequity research in agricultural economics.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"63 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139836514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding inequality in U.S. farm subsidies using large‐scale administrative data","authors":"Jisang Yu, Sunghun Lim","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12462","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large‐scale, individual‐level administrative data set for 2008–2021, we document the inequality in farm program payments across all recipients in the U.S. By examining the relationship between within‐county inequality and demographic characteristics of farmers in a county, we find that there is a positive association between the share of Black operators and within‐county inequality. We also provide suggestive evidence that a substantial portion of racial and gender disparities in farm payments are associated with crop production characteristics. We then utilize name information in farm payment data to infer the race and gender of individual payees. The analysis using approximately 4.9 million payee‐by‐year observations and predicted race and gender information of those payees shows that payments are lower for producers who are Black, Hispanic, and female. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the equality of farm subsidy distribution covering most U.S. farm payment programs at a granular level over time. We also provide an empirical approach of utilizing name information from the administrative data that opens up more possibilities for racial and gender inequity research in agricultural economics.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"24 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139777081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can revenue index insurance outperform yield index insurance?","authors":"Richard A. Gallenstein, John P. Dougherty","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12445","url":null,"abstract":"Index insurance programs in developing countries have focused almost entirely on agricultural production risk (i.e., yield) while largely avoiding output marketing risk (i.e., price). This omission may miss an important constraint on smallholder investment and may partially explain underwhelming demand for yield‐based insurance policies. Here, we explore the viability of an area‐revenue index insurance policy and how its performance may compare to that of an area‐yield index insurance policy. Using data from Ghana, we estimate reduced‐form regression analysis and calibrate a simulation model, generating several important results. We show that there is a negative correlation between farm investment and covariate price risk. Moreover, our simulation predicts that in many market contexts, area‐revenue index insurance suffers from less basis risk, exhibits higher demand, and is more effective at crowding in advanced input adoption compared to area‐yield index insurance. Our results also demonstrate important contexts in which area‐yield index insurance outperforms area‐revenue index insurance. We therefore find that revenue insurance may be a valuable and impactful product in Ghana but would not outperform area‐yield index insurance in all contexts.","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"137 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139780689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can revenue index insurance outperform yield index insurance?","authors":"Richard A. Gallenstein, John P. Dougherty","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12445","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12445","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Index insurance programs in developing countries have focused almost entirely on agricultural production risk (i.e., yield) while largely avoiding output marketing risk (i.e., price). This omission may miss an important constraint on smallholder investment and may partially explain underwhelming demand for yield-based insurance policies. Here, we explore the viability of an area-revenue index insurance policy and how its performance may compare to that of an area-yield index insurance policy. Using data from Ghana, we estimate reduced-form regression analysis and calibrate a simulation model, generating several important results. We show that there is a negative correlation between farm investment and covariate price risk. Moreover, our simulation predicts that in many market contexts, area-revenue index insurance suffers from less basis risk, exhibits higher demand, and is more effective at crowding in advanced input adoption compared to area-yield index insurance. Our results also demonstrate important contexts in which area-yield index insurance outperforms area-revenue index insurance. We therefore find that revenue insurance may be a valuable and impactful product in Ghana but would not outperform area-yield index insurance in all contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 5","pages":"1648-1683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139840495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Heterogeneity, climate change, and crop yield distributions: Solvency implications for publicly subsidized crop insurance programs","authors":"Daniel Schuurman, Alan Ker","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12446","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12446","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change continues to fuel concern about the future cost of publicly subsidized crop insurance programs in developed nations. These changes in climate are expected to alter the upper and lower tails of crop yield distributions differently. This may best be captured by modeling the climate–yield relationship heterogeneously across different parts of the yield distribution. To this end, we consider a mixture model with the parameters expressed as nonparametric functions (to capture any nonlinearities) of weather variables estimated by machine learning methods (neural net). By doing so, we are able to identify possibly heterogeneous effects of climate change on each component, the mixing probabilities, and thus all moments of the yield distribution. We find changing climate alters, quite significantly, the entire shape of the yield distribution. The overall probability of the lower tail tends to increase as temperatures rise, to the point where some yield distributions become positively skewed. Across a range of climate change scenarios, premium rates for fixed guarantees are expected to rise 20–66% relative to no climate change by 2040. However, if we allow the yield guarantees to also fall because of additional losses from climate change, premium rates (albeit not comparable given yield guarantees are different) increase notably less (6–14%), suggesting less solvency issues than first thought.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"107 1","pages":"248-268"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12446","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139769736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Making a difference through trusted, high-quality research and statistics","authors":"Mary Bohman","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12459","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As applied and agricultural economists, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) members work to provide high quality research and data to inform policy decisions. How do we ensure that decision makers see, and use, our research findings or data in the policy formulation process that includes many actors? The paper provides a framework for how information flows during the policy process and a strategy for effective research and data built around five equally important attributes: relevance; quality; trust; diversity, equity, and inclusion; and communication. Examples illustrate how the attributes lead to high impact information and focus on two federal research and statistics agencies, the Economic Research Service and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The paper concludes with strategies and examples of metrics to measure the impact of research and statistics.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 2","pages":"485-495"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139744916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhaoyang Liu, Simanti Banerjee, Timothy N. Cason, Nick Hanley, Qi Liu, Jintao Xu, Andreas Kontoleon
{"title":"Spatially coordinated conservation auctions: A framed field experiment focusing on farmland wildlife conservation in China","authors":"Zhaoyang Liu, Simanti Banerjee, Timothy N. Cason, Nick Hanley, Qi Liu, Jintao Xu, Andreas Kontoleon","doi":"10.1111/ajae.12447","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajae.12447","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How best to incentivize land managers to achieve conservation goals in an economically and ecologically effective manner is a key policy question that has gained increased relevance from the setting of ambitious new global targets for biodiversity conservation. Conservation (reverse) auctions are a policy tool for improving the environmental performance of agriculture, which has become well-established in the academic literature and in policy making in the US and Australia. However, little is known about the likely response of farmers to incentives within such an auction to (1) increase spatial connectivity and (2) encourage collective participation. This paper presents the first framed field experiment with farmers as participants that examines the effects of two features of conservation policy design: joint (collective) participation by farmers and the incentivization of spatial connectivity. The experiment employs farmers in China, a country making increasing use of payments for ecosystem services to achieve a range of environmental objectives. We investigate whether auction performance—both economic and ecological—can be improved by the introduction of agglomeration bonus and joint bidding bonus mechanisms. Our empirical results suggest that, compared to a baseline spatially coordinated conservation auction, the performance of an auction with an agglomeration bonus, a joint bidding bonus, or both, is inferior on two key metrics—the environmental benefits generated and cost effectiveness realized.</p>","PeriodicalId":55537,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"106 4","pages":"1354-1379"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajae.12447","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140489335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}