{"title":"Meat production and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Asia","authors":"Ore Koren, Jessica Steinberg, Amit Hagar","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Is there a link between meat production and infectious diseases? Researchers, policymakers and pundits argue that the growth of demand for meat in Asia can increase the risk of zoonotic diseases, pathogens that originate in animals and can be transmitted to humans. Using original data on zoonotic disease outbreaks in 22 Asian countries between 1996 and 2019, this study examines the impact of beef, chicken and pork production on zoonotic outbreaks—focussing on all diseases and disaggregated subcategories. Because such outbreaks lead to culling animals, data on inorganic chemical fertiliser use are used to identify the plausibly exogenous relationship flowing from meat production to outbreaks. Results indicate that in these countries, intensive meat production may have contributed to a 16%–300% rise (for a one-million-tonne increase in output) in zoonotic outbreak incidence. Findings also suggest this relationship is primarily driven by flu pathogens' higher sensitivity to meat production, with a one-million-tonne increase in output being associated with a 48%–530% rise in the number of predicted flu outbreaks. These results are consistent across numerous sensitivity analyses accounting for modelling, operationalisation, and data selection choices.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"567-586"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How to reduce household food waste during and after the COVID-19 lockdown? Evidence from a structural model","authors":"Yu Zhang, Danyi Qi","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 lockdown precipitated a fundamental shift in consumer food-related behaviours. Owing to adherence to stay-at-home directives and concerns over potential exposure to the coronavirus, consumers engaged in less frequent in-person shopping, opting for larger quantities of food purchased per trip, a trend with the potential to exacerbate food wastage patterns among bulk food purchasers. Nevertheless, recent empirical data obtained from the United Kingdom have revealed a 34% reduction in household food waste during the nationwide lockdown in April 2020. To gain deeper insights into the underlying mechanisms governing household food waste behaviours, we employ an infinite horizon dynamic stochastic model that operates on a daily cycle, focusing specifically on household food inventory management. Our analysis demonstrates that absent any improvements in food management practices, panic-stricken consumers who stockpiled food at home during the early phase of the pandemic generated significantly higher levels of food waste. Conversely, consumers who embraced effective food management techniques and transitioned to online grocery shopping managed to reduce household food waste by about 50% during the pandemic. Additionally, we conduct simulations to envision potential post-pandemic scenarios and conclude the study with a set of recommendations aimed at curbing household food waste in the aftermath of the pandemic.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"628-652"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Will irresistible force overcome immovable object?","authors":"John Quiggin","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Looking at the role of solar photovoltaics in the energy transition is reminiscent of the paradox arising from the clash of an irresistible force and an immovable object. In this note, it will be argued that the irresistible force of low-cost solar generation will win out over the apparently immovable obstacles.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"535-540"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12571","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexandra L. Egan, B. Louise Chilvers, Sue Cassells
{"title":"Expected direct costs of an oil spill in a UNESCO World Heritage area in New Zealand","authors":"Alexandra L. Egan, B. Louise Chilvers, Sue Cassells","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12569","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12569","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fiordland National Park is a UNESCO site located in the remote, southwest of New Zealand's South Island, which attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors every year. One of its leading attractions is Milford Sound. An oil spill in this area could not only impact the industries that operate in Milford Sound but also impact all of the park. To improve the knowledge base about this area in regard to oil spills and policies regarding ship visitation, this study aimed to estimate the costs of clean-up, impacts to fisheries, tourism, recreation and the wildlife/environment under three oil spill scenarios in Milford Sound. Minimum costs are estimated at NZD 140–154 million. These results demonstrate the need for proper planning and response measures, and appropriate domestic and international policies to help minimise the potential damages that may occur in the event of an oil spill in a remote and pristine area of New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"608-627"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141123278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Bitcoin-agricultural commodities nexus: Fresh insight from COVID-19 and 2022 Russia–Ukraine war","authors":"Hongjun Zeng, Abdullahi D. Ahmed, Ran Lu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12570","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12570","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the volatility connectedness and dynamic time–frequency relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and 15 major agricultural commodity markets during the COVID-19 and 2022 Russia–Ukraine war periods. We employ the TVP-VAR-based extended joint connectedness method, minimum connectedness investment portfolio, and wavelet coherence (WC) method. The results indicate that the sudden outbreaks of the two crises brought about increased volatility connectedness between BTC and agricultural commodity markets. Throughout the entire sample period, BTC remained a net transmitter of volatility. Moreover, in terms of the total connectedness index (TCI), the overall volatility correlation surged rapidly after the outbreak of COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. The portfolio results demonstrated that BTC exhibited a low correlation with the agricultural commodity markets, suggesting diversification potential. Additionally, only Feeder Cattle served as an effective hedging asset for BTC throughout all periods. The WC analysis confirmed that during the COVID-19 period and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, most of the linkages were primarily concentrated at medium- to long-term frequencies. Our analysis will contribute to a deeper understanding of the interconnection between these markets, enabling market participants to consider risk mitigation measures and support portfolio diversification when formulating policies and regulations involving relevant markets in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"653-677"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12570","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141124930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using artificial intelligence for economic research: An agricultural odyssey","authors":"Andrew Leigh","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12567","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12567","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Generative artificial intelligence tools have been shown to substantially increase productivity in a range of different contexts. I discuss the potential and limitations of the current models, and the evidence on how economic researchers can best make use of generative artificial intelligence in their work. To illustrate these points, I show how the data analysis tools of ChatGPT can be used to address a specific question: the accuracy of agricultural forecasts—and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of artificial intelligence in data cleaning, data analysis and producing graphs and illustrations.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"521-529"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140990233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of repayment obligations arising as a by-product of input use on partial inefficiency: Evidence from Western Australian farm businesses","authors":"Steele C. West, Amin W. Mugera, Ross S. Kingwell","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12568","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12568","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Farm businesses often use debt to finance the purchase inputs and meet operational costs. Selected studies have investigated the impact of debt use on farm performance as measured using technical efficiency. However, no prior studies in agriculture have considered treating the debt repayment obligation created as a by-product of production when benchmarking farm performance. This study employs nonparametric directional distance function models to quantify the impact of debt repayment as a by-product of input use purchased on credit on farm-level partial inefficiency using a panel data of 54 mixed enterprise broadacre farms in Western Australia from 2002 to 2011. The study finds that omitting repayment obligations created in the production process in analysis results in underestimating partial inefficiency scores. Farm size, production diversification and rainfall zone are significant drivers of partial inefficiency. The implication of the study's findings is that failure to account for repayment obligations created in the production process may result in erroneous policy suggestions that undermine the efforts of farm businesses to minimise or avoid financial stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"678-700"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12568","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140990337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating the productivity of US agriculture: The Fisher total factor productivity index for time series data with unknown prices","authors":"Thanh Ngo, David Tripe, Duc Khuong Nguyen","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12565","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12565","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we propose a straightforward way to estimate the Fisher ideal total factor productivity (TFP) index (FI) in cases where price information is unavailable, using ‘shadow prices’ derived from data envelopment analysis (DEA). A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the shadow price Fisher ideal TFP index (SPFI) can effectively estimate the ‘true’ FI with relatively small (and stable) errors. The empirical application to the US agriculture sector (1948–2017) further suggests that the SPFI is a (superior) alternative to the traditional Malmquist DEA, especially in dealing with unbalanced panel or time series data when price data are unknown.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"701-712"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12565","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140990743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why trade matters—How policy shapes who eats what where and how it is produced","authors":"Jenny Gordon","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12566","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rising uncertainty due to climate change and the failure of globalisation to improve security is threatening trade. As trade matters for prosperity, and ultimately security, policy makers need to resist protectionist responses to perceived security risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"530-534"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12566","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of ocean warming on selected commercial fisheries in New Zealand","authors":"Hanny John Mediodia, Ilan Noy, Viktoria Kahui","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12564","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12564","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Warming oceans affect the growth, reproduction and location of fish species. Using a bioeconomic framework, we estimate the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the catch of de facto open-access commercial fisheries of flatfish, trevally and jack mackerel in New Zealand. Assuming either a logarithmic or quadratic relationship between the SST and the carrying capacity of the fish stock, we consider three fishing methods (bottom trawl, set net and midwater trawl) and two measures of effort (count and duration). We show that ocean warming results in an increase in catch for all species if we assume a logarithmic relationship, with the highest marginal product of SST (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>MP</mi>\u0000 <mi>SST</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </semantics></math>) for jack mackerel caught using midwater trawl. The highest marginal revenue product (computed by the <i>MP</i><sub><i>SST</i></sub>, current price and fished area) is found for flatfish caught by set net. However, when assuming a quadratic relationship, there is a threshold above which catch starts to decrease, with the maximum catch of species ranging between 10 and 12.2°C. These results also vary spatially, with higher values of <i>MP</i><sub><i>SST</i></sub> observed in areas closer to the South Pole. Our findings are relevant for any review of fisheries management systems in response to ocean warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 3","pages":"587-607"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12564","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140701064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}