Biological Conservation最新文献

{"title":"Reversing net loss but aggravating fragmentation of habitat in the global Asian elephant range in the mid-2010s","authors":"Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Ahimsa Campos-Arceiz ,&nbsp;Fei Chen ,&nbsp;Wenping Yin ,&nbsp;Fei Xie ,&nbsp;Jiejing Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Megafauna, such as elephants, are flagship species and play keystone roles in maintaining ecosystem function. Human-induced deforestation has considerably reduced the global geographic range and population size of Asian elephants (<em>Elephas maximus</em>) in recent decades, yet some reports suggest a possible recent recovery of some of their habitats. The long-term global dynamics of these habitats, however, remain largely unknown. In this study, we compiled environmental covariates from 39 published papers that assessed habitat suitability for Asian elephants. Using these covariates and a habitat suitability index model, we investigated the interannual dynamics of habitat suitability across the species' range from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, we analyzed trends in habitat fragmentation during the same period. Our findings revealed a significant 4.36 % decline in suitable habitat areas over two decades. Interestingly, a tipping point occurred around 2014, when habitat suitability stabilized and began to show slight improvement. However, habitat fragmentation continued to worsen throughout the study period. Notably, habitat suitability was higher in transboundary regions, where degradation was less severe than within protected areas. After 2018, habitat suitability in transboundary regions surpassed that of the protected areas. These findings emphasize the need to prioritize the protection of remaining Asian elephant populations and address the challenges of habitat fragmentation and connectivity across the species' range. Our study highlights the conservation potential often-overlooked transboundary regions and underscores the importance of leveraging geospatial data spanning long time periods and large spatial scales for comprehensive habitat evaluations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111189"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid assessments accurately identify threatened Australian flora under IUCN Red List Criteria after megafires","authors":"Tom Le Breton ,&nbsp;Mark K.J. Ooi ,&nbsp;Sylvia Hay ,&nbsp;Joe Atkinson ,&nbsp;Doug Bickerton ,&nbsp;Stephanie Cerato ,&nbsp;Richard J.P. Davies ,&nbsp;Chantelle Doyle ,&nbsp;Rachael Gallagher ,&nbsp;Bettina Ignacio ,&nbsp;David Keith ,&nbsp;Mellissa McCallum ,&nbsp;Sarah J. McInnes ,&nbsp;Michi Sano ,&nbsp;Alexandria Thomsen ,&nbsp;Katriona Waite ,&nbsp;Tony D. Auld","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The combined pressures of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance are increasingly pushing species toward extinction. However, many species remain unassessed for extinction risk, posing challenges to managers and decision makers when extreme events, such as megafires, impact large numbers of species. This has led to an increased need for rapid assessments, which can accelerate extinction risk assessments and help to ensure species receive timely conservation actions. In Australia, the 2019–2020 Black Summer fires had extensive impacts on native endemic flora, necessitating a prioritisation process to identify the species most in need of conservation interventions or extinction risk assessments. We used rapid assessments to identify priority species for full extinction risk assessments and compared how well the rapid assessments, with minimal information, predicted extinction risk in species that received a full assessment. Some 260 species received rapid assessments and 131 of these received full assessments. We found that 84 % of species identified as threatened by full assessments had been accurately identified as such during the rapid assessments. Rapid assessments also accurately predicted the specific threatened category in 53 % of cases compared to full assessments, however accuracy decreased with extinction risk (67 % for Critically Endangered, 54 % for Endangered, 11 % for Vulnerable). Our results show that rapid assessments can be a reliable and informative predictor of extinction risk and may be particularly useful in emergency circumstances. Recognising that effective conservation action relies on comprehensive and up-to-date threat listings, our results show the value of rapid assessments during biodiversity crises and highlight their utility to drive conservation actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111183"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pre-release experience with a heterospecific competitor increases fitness of a translocated endangered species","authors":"Debra M. Shier ,&nbsp;Janine N. Fischer ,&nbsp;Shauna N.D. King ,&nbsp;Alison L. Greggor ,&nbsp;Gregory F. Grether","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Translocation is a key conservation strategy, with breeding programs increasingly providing animals for release. Despite its growing use, translocation efforts frequently encounter limited success, particularly when captive-born animals are involved. Ex-situ environments may lack cues needed to develop survival behaviors, such as predator avoidance, foraging, and social skills. Although practitioners typically address the lack of predator avoidance through training or predator removal, competitor naivety remains largely overlooked, despite its potential to hinder population establishment by compromising access to resources. We examined the impact of pre-release competitor experience on the Pacific pocket mouse (<em>Perognathus longimembris pacificus</em>), one of southern California's most critically endangered mammals. The Pacific pocket mouse is the smallest, and most behaviorally subordinate species in a community of native rodents that compete for resources. We conducted a controlled experiment to test if providing captive-born mice pre-release experience with kangaroo rats (<em>Dipodomys simulans</em>) would improve translocation outcomes. We compared fitness and body condition of pocket mice between the two treatments and examined if behavioral change was exhibited before release. Competitor-experienced females gained more weight and had higher survival and reproductive success than controls, with female survival surpassing that of males in both groups. These findings suggest that incorporating competitor experience into conservation breeding programs could improve translocation success. As competition is a common challenge in natural ecosystems, this behavioral intervention could be applicable for a wide range of species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111193"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size","authors":"Duncan A. O'Brien,&nbsp;Christopher F. Clements","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modern biodiversity monitoring is generating increasingly multidimensional representations of wildlife populations and ecosystems. It is therefore appealing for conservation and environmental governance to combine that information into single measure of ecosystem or population health. Stability represents a desirable feature of ecosystems that supports this aim, measured through resistance, recovery, and variability. In deterministic mathematical systems, the Jacobian matrix is a common characteristic used to quantify resistance and resilience and whilst historically it has been challenging to estimate from empirical data, recent work has proposed a suite of metrics capable of reconstructing it for a real-world community using time series data. Here we assess the robustness of three Jacobian metrics and two variability estimating stability metrics to varying time series lengths and data qualities based on that seen in real-world wildlife time series. Using Lotka–Volterra equations, we generate short time series (to match global biodiversity datasets such as the Living Planet Index and BIOTIME) and introduce sampling error corruptions (to mimic varying search efforts) to validate metric performance in empirical data. The robustness of all stability metrics improved with time series length and search effort in the anticipated manner. However, number of species dramatically altered metric capability, with larger communities decreasing the reliability of stability metric trends. Overall, stability metrics behave predictably across realistic data corruptions. Generic stability estimation is therefore possible from abundance time series alone, and we suggest that, given the increasing availability of multivariate community data, focussing on Jacobian estimates is a plausible ecosystem condition indicator.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111191"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who is using tree-related microhabitats (TreMs)?","authors":"Trishna Dutta ,&nbsp;Laurent Larrieu ,&nbsp;Andreas Schuck","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111180","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111180","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tree-related microhabitats (TreMs) are well-delineated tree structures that provide important resources and refuge to thousands of species. For these reasons, TreMs have been recommended as an indirect indicator of biodiversity in European forests. We conducted a literature review to understand the scale at which different taxonomic groups are associated with TreMs in Europe. Across a pool of 54 papers, we found that TreMs were most frequently studied at the scales of sampling plots (<em>n</em> = 28, 58 %) and individual trees (<em>n</em> = 18, 33 %), and less frequently at the stand scale (<em>n</em> = 5, 9 %). Two studies addressed the landscape scale in addition to the plot and stand scale (<em>n</em> = 1). Birds, saproxylic beetles and bats were the most frequently studied taxonomic groups overall and at the plot scale, whereas amphibians were only studied at the scale of individual trees. Tree cavities were the most frequently studied TreM-form at all scales and were often associated with bats and saproxylic beetles. Crown deadwood and fungal fruiting bodies were associated with saproxylic beetles, and tree injuries were frequently associated with bats. Sample sizes across all TreMs-taxa combinations were low, allowing only descriptive analyses and interpretation. The largest sample size for saproxylic beetles investigated at the plot scale (<em>n</em> = 15) across different TreMs, were found to be significantly associated more than 20 % of the times with tree cavities (33 %), tree injuries (21 %) and fungal fruiting bodies (20 %). We recommend future studies to evaluate species-TreM associations for the poorly studied TreMs such as epiphytic and epixylic structures, excrescences, and exudates, or poorly studied taxa such as meiofauna, and to evaluate multiple scales and taxonomic groups when possible. Our review could also serve as a starting point to consider which taxonomic groups would benefit from those management practices that enhance TreM-associated biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111180"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Single- vs mixed-species plantations: A systematic review on the effects on biodiversity","authors":"Klaus Kremer ,&nbsp;Bengt-Gunnar Jonsson ,&nbsp;Trishna Dutta ,&nbsp;Mayra Flores Tavares ,&nbsp;Jürgen Bauhus","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111182","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111182","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite increasing evidence suggesting mixed-species plantations promote biodiversity, a comprehensive quantitative analysis of this knowledge is lacking. We systematically reviewed 71 studies to evaluate the effects of mixed versus pure tree plantations on biodiversity. Using descriptive statistics and meta-analyses, we explored: a) the effects of mixed plantations on forest-related biodiversity; b) variations in these effects with climate, stand age, and with the richness, relative abundance, and functional diversity of the planted species; and c) differences in responses across taxonomic and functional groups. Our meta-analyses revealed a significant positive effect of mixed-species plantations on taxonomic diversity. However, most observations (64%) reported no significant effects. Positive effects are more frequent in mixtures with more than two species (49%), compared to two-species mixtures (29%), and were strongest in tropical climates (78%), followed by temperate (26%) and continental climates (14%). Among taxonomic and functional groups, positive mixing effects are most frequent for birds (75%), followed by litter microbiota (47%), understory plants (40%), and above-ground arthropods (29%), while soil-dwelling micro-organisms (22%) and soil mesofauna (4%) appear less sensitive. Mixing conifers and broadleaves does not enhance biodiversity benefits, suggesting higher functional diversity may be better achieved by targeting specific species and traits. The limited effects of mixing observed in some cases may reflect the young age of plantations studied (11±9.4 years on average), which may limit the time for biodiversity to respond. The variability in biodiversity outcomes highlights the need for tailored mixing strategies and further research across broader plantation ages, settings, and underrepresented taxonomic groups to optimize biodiversity benefits in mixed-species plantations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111182"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Open and FAIR data sharing are building blocks to bolster biodiversity conservation in Southeast Asia","authors":"Krizler C. Tanalgo","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The tropical Southeast Asian region, with its unique geographical features, is home to a multitude of distinct species that are affected by various human and natural activities. The availability of biodiversity data is crucial for understanding species distribution and responses to environmental changes to develop effective conservation priorities. In this perspective paper, I examined the patterns and trends of biodiversity in Southeast Asia within the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and highlighted important gaps, priorities, and opportunities for the region. Thailand accounted for 28 % of GBIF occurrence records in Southeast Asia, followed by Indonesia (19 %), Malaysia (18 %), and the Philippines (13 %). A significant portion of biodiversity data comes from citizen science platforms, such as eBird (56 %) and iNaturalists (6 %), highligthing the significance of public in data mobilisation. Nonetheless, the biodiversity data for five of the 11 Southeast Asian countries are poorly represented by domestic researchers, with approximately 41 % of the region's GBIF occurrence data contributed by researchers or institutions from outside Southeast Asia. Furthermore, over the past 24 years (2000–2024), at least 30 % of terrestrial vertebrate occurrence records in Southeast Asia overlap with Protected Areas (PAs). In Southeast Asia, where species often span borders, I argue that open and FAIR data sharing should be considered standard practices in the biodiversity research community, integrated into biodiversity agendas, and funding policies. Consequently, I propose the open-NOTE steps (Normalise, Organise, Train, and Engage), as a practical framework to promote open and FAIR data sharing in Southeast Asia and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111192"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential fence density in central and Western North America and implications for Bison (Bison bison) restoration","authors":"Eduarda M.O. Silveira ,&nbsp;Sarah Olimb ,&nbsp;Glenn E. Plumb ,&nbsp;Jeff M. Martin ,&nbsp;Dustin H. Ranglack ,&nbsp;Dennis Jorgensen ,&nbsp;Anastasia Kirilyuk ,&nbsp;Haqiq Rahmani ,&nbsp;Volker C. Radeloff","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fences serve multiple purposes, including livestock management, agriculture, property delineation, and conservation. However, fences often act as ecological barriers, limiting wildlife movement and access to resources, particularly for species like bison (<em>Bison bison</em>) in North America. Despite the substantial impacts of fencing, large-scale datasets on fence densities are lacking. Our goal was to create potential fence density maps for the western and central U.S. and Canada using GIS modelling and freely accessible data. Specifically, we aimed to: (1) map potential fence density and identify high density of fence, (2) contrast the potential fence density map with the patterns of high human influences, and (3) identify areas with high bison habitat suitability and low density of potential fences. Using GIS modelling, we generated potential fence density maps by integrating data on land parcels, croplands, roads, and railroads. Subsequently, we identified regions with high and low potential fence density and compared them with patterns of human influence and bison habitat suitability. We found high total potential fence density in central regions of Canada and the U.S., mainly due to agriculture and transportation corridors. Interestingly, areas with high potential density of fence in the western U.S., often had low other human influence, suggesting that human influence maps may underestimate impacts if they miss fences. We also identified large areas with high bison habitat suitability and low fence density, which are promising for bison restoration. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing fences for wildlife conservation and supporting bison restoration in the Great Plains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111194"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An evaluation of global LULC maps for the estimation of habitat use of a declining migratory waterbird along its flyway","authors":"Mariëlle L. van Toor ,&nbsp;Aurélie Davranche ,&nbsp;Gabriel Delaunay ,&nbsp;Clément Murgue ,&nbsp;Jonas Waldenström ,&nbsp;Céline Arzel","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111152","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111152","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global products of land use and land cover (LULC) provide maps with a consistent classification, thereby allowing for comparisons of resource and habitat use of species over large spatial scales. While global LULCs tend to be evaluated extensively, the distribution ranges of species can extend into remote areas that are hard to access for ground truthing. It is unclear how adequate global LULCs are for mapping habitat of long-distance migrants throughout their entire range. Here, we investigated whether different global LULCs could successfully capture the known preferences of a migratory wetland specialist, the Eurasian wigeon (<em>Mareca penelope</em>), along the East Atlantic flyway. We evaluated how well five different global LULC products captured known wigeon habitat preferences using remote tracking data, and tested whether a further classification based on wetland expert knowledge can improve on their performance. We found that average performance of global LULC products varied greatly, with ESA WorldCover performing best with a 94% correspondence to wigeon habitat. All products performed best in the Tundra biome, and worse in Boreal as well as Temperate forests. In the latter areas, our wetland expert LULC classification provided improved results by explicitly considering small and temporary wetlands, and wetlands underneath vegetation. Overall, habitat use of habitat specialists can inform us about habitat types that are currently not considered in large-scale LULC maps. We suggest LULC mapping methods integrate information from tracking of wetland specialists for a better detection of small and temporary wetlands on a global scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111152"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Closely related Amazonian whiptail lizards show contrasting responses to climate change","authors":"Lidia F. Martins ,&nbsp;Gabriel H.O. Caetano ,&nbsp;Vitor H.G.L. Cavalcante ,&nbsp;Pedro H. Campelo ,&nbsp;Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas ,&nbsp;Júlio M. Alvarenga ,&nbsp;Alan F.S. Oliveira ,&nbsp;Deborah I.S. Santos ,&nbsp;Gabriela Carvalho ,&nbsp;Erik H.L. Choueri ,&nbsp;Guarino R. Colli ,&nbsp;Fernanda P. Werneck","doi":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different approaches can be used to forecast species range shifts in future climate change scenarios. Among these, hybrid species distribution models achieve greater accuracy than purely mechanistic or correlative models by incorporating physiological mechanisms into a correlative framework. Despite the observation that tropical ectotherms are among the most threatened organisms by climate change, hybrid modeling was not used to date to infer vulnerability and extinction risks across organisms in open Amazonian ecosystems. Here, we forecast the impacts of climate change on Amazonian whiptail lizards by incorporating estimates of thermal performance and hours of activity on hybrid species distribution models. We estimate local extinction risks for two species, the bisexual <em>Cnemidophorus lemniscatus</em> and the parthenogenetic <em>C. cryptus</em>, for 2060 and 2100 in two carbon emission scenarios and discuss the variation between species and sites (including the congener <em>C.</em> aff. <em>gramivagus</em>) in ecophysiological thermal traits. Our models predicted a 20 % increase in <em>C. lemniscatus</em> range and a 44 % decrease in <em>C. cryptus</em> range under the most severe scenario for the year 2100. Our results suggest that the parthenogenetic species will be more affected by climate change than the bisexual one, likely due to differences in their activity periods, which are shaped by their thermal needs and tolerances. These results show that regions with lower future climatic suitability are at the transition between the Amazonian rainforest and Cerrado savannas, a region highly altered by human land use and climate change, which raises concerns about the survival of populations from the Amazonian <em>C. lemniscatus</em> group. Moreover, the contrasting results between closely related species demonstrate that climate change can cause distinct impacts even within related taxonomic groups. This shows the difficulty of identifying model species to predict responses to current environmental changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55375,"journal":{"name":"Biological Conservation","volume":"307 ","pages":"Article 111166"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}