Weiliang Qiu, Cheng Wenren, Els Pattyn, Tamara Slavnic, Luc Esserméant
{"title":"An investigation to improve a nonlinear mixed-effects approach for EC50 estimation based on multi-donor dose-response data.","authors":"Weiliang Qiu, Cheng Wenren, Els Pattyn, Tamara Slavnic, Luc Esserméant","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2421424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2421424","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dose-response relationships are important in assessing the efficacy and potency of compounds, which can usually be characterized by a 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model estimating EC50, slope factor, lower asymptote, and upper asymptote. EC50, the concentration of a compound that induces a response halfway between the baseline and maximum, is a key quantity to evaluate compound potency. For multi-donor dose-response data, it is often of interest to estimate the overall EC50 (i.e. the average EC50 of the population of donors) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). A few multi-donor EC50 estimation methods have been proposed in the literature. Jiang and Kopp-Schneider (2014) systematically compared the meta-analysis approach and the nonlinear mixed-effects approach and concluded that the meta-analysis approach is simple and robust to summarize EC50 estimates from multiple experiments, especially suited in the case of a small number of experiments, while the nonlinear mixed-effects approach has the issue of convergence failures probably due to overparameterization. In this article, we propose a modification of the nonlinear mixed-effects approach by using the stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to estimate model parameters and using multiple starting points to search for globally optimal values, which can substantially alleviate the issue of convergence failures even for small number of donors (e.g. <i>n</i> = 3), and achieve a smaller absolute median bias and better coverage probability of 95% confidence interval than the meta-analysis approach when the number of donors is not too small (e.g. <i>n</i> ≥ 7).</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142583752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Large-scale dependent multiple testing via higher-order hidden Markov models.","authors":"Canhui Li, Jiangzhou Wang, Pengfei Wang","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2420657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2420657","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Taking into account the local dependence structure in large-scale multiple testing is expected to improve both the efficiency of the testing procedure and the interpretability of scientific findings. The hidden Markov model (HMM), as an effective model to describe the sequential dependence, has been successfully applied to large-scale multiple testing with local correlations. However, in many applications, the first-order Markov chain is not flexible enough to capture the complexity of local correlations. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel multiple testing procedure that uses a higher-order Markov chain to better characterize local correlations among tests. The proposed procedure is validated by theoretical results and simulation studies, which show that it outperforms its competitors in terms of power. Finally, a real data analysis is presented to demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed procedure.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142570393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jing Kersey, Hani Samawi, Marwan Alsharman, Mario Keko, Haresh Rochani, Lili Yu, Jingjing Yin, Kelly Sullivan, Salaheddin Mustafa
{"title":"Different view of the diagnostics test accuracy measures and optimal cut-off point selection procedure under tree or umbrella ordering.","authors":"Jing Kersey, Hani Samawi, Marwan Alsharman, Mario Keko, Haresh Rochani, Lili Yu, Jingjing Yin, Kelly Sullivan, Salaheddin Mustafa","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2420659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2420659","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the realm of medical diagnostic testing, diagnostic tests can assume either binary forms, distinguishing between diseased and non-diseased states, or ordinal forms, categorizing states from non-diseased to various stages (1 to K). Another significant classification scheme for multi-class scenarios is tree or umbrella ordering, which entails several unordered sub-classes (subtypes) within a biomarker. Within tree or umbrella ordering, the classifier assesses whether the marker measurement for one class surpasses or falls below those for the other classes. Although Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and summary measures have been adapted to accommodate tree and umbrella ordering, these approaches often yield cut-off points that generate highly sensitive tests for certain disease subtypes while compromising specificity for others. This may not be ideal for all diseases. Hence, in this investigation, we explore diverse measures of diagnostic test accuracy and optimal cut-off point selection procedures under tree or umbrella ordering to foster more specific tests. We present numerical examples and simulation studies and demonstrate the approach using real data on lung cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-31"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142549002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Small sample adjustment for inference without assuming orthogonality in a mixed model for repeated measures analysis.","authors":"Kazushi Maruo, Ryota Ishii, Yusuke Yamaguchi, Tomohiro Ohigashi, Masahiko Gosho","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2420632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2420632","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM) analysis is sometimes used as a primary statistical analysis for a longitudinal randomized clinical trial. When the MMRM analysis is implemented in ordinary statistical software, the standard error of the treatment effect is estimated by assuming orthogonality between the fixed effects and covariance parameters, based on the characteristics of the normal distribution. However, orthogonality does not hold unless the normality assumption of the error distribution holds, and/or the missing data are derived from the missing completely at random structure. Therefore, assuming orthogonality in the MMRM analysis is not preferable. However, without the assumption of orthogonality, the small-sample bias in the standard error of the treatment effect is significant. Nonetheless, there is no method to improve small-sample performance. Furthermore, there is no software that can easily implement inferences on treatment effects without assuming orthogonality. Hence, we propose two small-sample adjustment methods inflating standard errors that are reasonable in ideal situations and achieve empirical conservatism even in general situations. We also provide an R package to implement these inference processes. The simulation results show that one of the proposed small-sample adjustment methods performs particularly well in terms of underestimation bias of standard errors; consequently, the proposed method is recommended. When using the MMRM analysis, our proposed method is recommended if the sample size is not large and between-group heteroscedasticity is expected.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142549003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leveraging real-world data to conduct externally controlled trial for rare diseases with count-type endpoints: utilizing multiple entries - a simulation study.","authors":"Tianyu Sun, Eileen Liao, Nan Shao, Junxiang Luo","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2420644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2420644","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Conducting randomized controlled trials for medications targeting rare diseases presents significant challenges, due to the scarcity of participants and ethical considerations. Under such circumstances, leveraging real-world data (RWD) to generate supporting evidence may be accepted by the regulatory agency. Constructing an external control arm (ECA) from RWD for a single-arm trial has been conducted occasionally. A complication in this design is that patients from RWD may be eligible at multiple time points. Most studies approach this by selecting one time point as the index date for ECA patients. Here, we propose a novel design for externally controlled trials that permits the inclusion of ECA patients at various entry points. Accompanying this design, we make recommendations for statistical methods to account for measured confounders, limited sample size, within-subject correlation, and potential overdispersion inherent in count data. Furthermore, we present an idea for the blinding process for this type of study. We have conducted a series of simulations to assess the performance of the design and statistical methods in terms of bias, type I error, and efficiency, as compared to the approach of selecting only one entry per ECA patient. The study and parameter setup were based on a hypothetical case inspired by a rare disease study. The results indicate that allowing multiple entries for ECA patients can lead to enhanced performance in many aspects. It provides a controlled type I error, robustness against certain model misspecifications, and a moderate power improvement compared with selecting a single entry per ECA patient.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142513228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Issues in cox proportional hazards model with unequal randomization.","authors":"Hongfei Li, Qian H Li, Chuan Tian, Kevin Hou","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2418139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2418139","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142513227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gaohong Dong, Ying Cui, Margaret Gamalo-Siebers, Ran Liao, Dacheng Liu, David C Hoaglin, Ying Lu
{"title":"On approximate equality of Z-values of the statistical tests for win statistics (win ratio, win odds, and net benefit).","authors":"Gaohong Dong, Ying Cui, Margaret Gamalo-Siebers, Ran Liao, Dacheng Liu, David C Hoaglin, Ying Lu","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2374857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2024.2374857","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dong et al. (2023) showed that the win statistics (win ratio, win odds, and net benefit) can complement each another to demonstrate the strength of treatment effects in randomized trials with prioritized multiple outcomes. This result was built on the connections among the point and variance estimates of the three statistics, and the approximate equality of Z-values in their statistical tests. However, the impact of this approximation was not clear. This Discussion refines this approach and shows that the approximate equality of Z-values for the win statistics holds more generally. Thus, the three win statistics consistently yield closely similar p-values. In addition, our simulations show an example that the naive approach without adjustment for censoring bias may produce a completely opposite conclusion from the true results, whereas the IPCW (inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting) approach can effectively adjust the win statistics to the corresponding true values (i.e. IPCW-adjusted win statistics are unbiased estimators of treatment effect).</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142395406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jun Wang, Jie Chen, Jun Zhao, Ying Wu, Xiaona Xin, Pingyan Chen
{"title":"Establishment of RWS guidance reflecting contributions of China to regulatory science.","authors":"Jun Wang, Jie Chen, Jun Zhao, Ying Wu, Xiaona Xin, Pingyan Chen","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330208","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330208","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>China's accession to the ICH has accelerated the advancement of its regulatory science. To foster innovation and improve the efficiency of pharmaceutical research and development, the China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) encourages the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support drug regulatory decision-making and has constructed a series of real-world study (RWS) related guidance, reflecting the contribution of the NMPA to the field of RWS in drug clinical development. Based on the four guidelines on RWE, real-world data (RWD), RWS design and protocol development, and communication with regulatory authorities, the guidance has been extended to more specific clinical applications, such as oncology, rare diseases, pediatric drugs, and traditional Chinese medicine. This paper reviews the core content and features of the series of RWS guidelines, presents their role in promoting drug development, and discusses challenges of using RWE in support of drug regulatory decision-making in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"864-872"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140144692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Incorporating external real-world data (RWD) in confirmatory adaptive design.","authors":"Junjing Lin, Jianchang Lin","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330212","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330212","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Adaptive designs, such as group sequential designs (and the ones with additional adaptive features) or adaptive platform trials, have been quintessential efficient design strategies in trials of unmet medical needs, especially for generating evidence from global regions. Such designs allow interim decision making and making adjustment to study design when necessary, meanwhile maintaining study integrity and operating characteristics. However, driven by the heightened competitive landscape and the desire to bring effective treatment to patients faster, innovation in the already functional designs is still germane to further propel drug development to a more efficient path. One way to achieve this is by leveraging external real-world data (RWD) in the adaptive designs to support interim or final decision making. In this paper, we propose a novel framework of incorporating external RWD in adaptive design to improve interim and/or final analysis decision making. Within this framework, researchers can prespecify the decision process and choose the timing and amount of borrowing while maintaining objectivity and controlling of type I error. Simulation studies in various scenarios are provided to describe power, type I error, and other performance metrics for interim/final decision making. A case study in non-small cell lung cancer is used for illustration on proposed design framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"805-817"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140186337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The use of real-world data for clinical investigation of effectiveness in drug development.","authors":"Peijin Wang, Shein-Chung Chow","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330215","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2330215","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>With the growing interest in leveraging real-world data (RWD) to support effectiveness evaluations for new indications, new target populations, and post-market performance, the United States Food and Drug Administration has published several guidance documents on RWD sources and real-world studies (RWS) to assist sponsors in generating credible real-world evidence (RWE). Meanwhile, the randomized controlled trial (RCT) remains the gold standard in drug evaluation. Along this line, we propose a hybrid two-stage adaptive design to evaluate effectiveness based on evidence from both RCT and RWS. At the first stage, a typical non-inferiority test is conducted using RCT data to test for not-ineffectiveness. Once not-ineffectiveness is established, the study proceeds to the second stage to conduct an RWS and test for effectiveness using integrated information from RCT and RWD. The composite likelihood approach is implemented as a down-weighing strategy to account for the impact of high variability in RWS population. An optimal sample size determination procedure for RCT and RWS is introduced, aiming to achieve the minimal expected sample size. Through extensive numerical study, the proposed design demonstrates the ability to control type I error inflation in most cases and consistently maintain statistical power above the desired level. In general, this RCT/RWS hybrid two-stage adaptive design is beneficial for effectiveness evaluations in drug development, especially for oncology and rare diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"818-841"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140190433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}