Journal of Forest Economics最新文献

{"title":"From Source to Sink: Past Changes\u0000and Model Projections of Carbon\u0000Sequestration in the Global Forest\u0000Sector","authors":"C. Johnston, J. Buongiorno, P. Nepal, J. Prestemon","doi":"10.1561/112.00000442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000442","url":null,"abstract":"From Source to Sink: Past Changes and Model Projections of Carbon Sequestration in the Global Forest Sector","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45624197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainty of Carbon Economy Using\u0000the Faustmann Model","authors":"R. Yousefpour, A. Augustynczik","doi":"10.1561/112.00000444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000444","url":null,"abstract":"Forest growth predictions are used to build expectations about the future economic performance of management decisions. Faustmann land expectation value (LEV) is a widely used criterion in forestry to evaluate a diversity of decision parameters, such as rotation age and thinning regimes. Most of the predictions and, consequently, expectations are based on emperical knowledge, assuming a steady state in climate and a deterministic forest growth approach. However, the climate may change to potentially different degrees in the coming decades, causing a dynamic and uncertain forest growth and carbon budget. Moreover, carbon economy in forestry, defined as opportunity cost of in situ carbon sequestration, can hardly be analysed using empirical models and calls for process-based forest biomass production models. Process-based models include numerous parameters and processes that embody some degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty of these parameters and climate state propagates over time to the final decision about carbon economy and optimal management solutions. Here we quantify this uncertainty using Bayesian inference and apply twelve different climate change scenarios to evaluate the forecasts of the process-based forest model 3-PG, to predict the growth of European beech (Fagus Sylvatica) in central european conditions as an example. The results show a strong influence of the model’s parameters uncertainty on the final decisions about timber based and carbon economy. The uncertainty triples if different climate change scenarios are applied as a source of deep uncertainty where no probability can be assigned to any scenario. To deal with deep uncertainty, a robust decision-making approach has been applied to find solutions with minimum regret or maximum value at risk regarding all scenarios. We conclude that communicating uncertainty is a fundamental issue for forestry economics under changing climate conditions, especially if carbon sequestration is an asset. The key message for designing global forest governance policy in the uncertain times of climate change will be the necessity to take into account both the uncertainty on the demand side, that is, socio-economic developments and regional population needs for forest ecosystem services such as wood, but also the uncertainty of the supply side and the inherent ecological uncertainties in predicting the forests’ growth, resources, and climatic conditions.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000444","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43630258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Specifying Forest Sector Models for\u0000Forest Carbon Projections","authors":"D. Wear, J. Coulston","doi":"10.1561/112.00000443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000443","url":null,"abstract":"Forest sector models merge models of timber inputs and final wood products markets with biophysical models of forest dynamics to project forest futures. Comprehensive treatment of biophysical dynamics is required to address the product detail of timber markets and to track changes in forest carbon. We examine assumptions for existing Forest Inventory Projection Models and empirically examine the implications for forest carbon projections. We compare model results with observations from remeasured forest inventories in the eastern United States. Results show forest carbon projections are sensitive to non-harvest disturbances, ownership, and stand-origin. Additionally, bias can arise when forest carbon stocks are estimated using correlations between average stock density and biomass aggregates. Current forest inventories provide a dataset of consistently remeasured forest plot records that will increasingly support a strong empirical foundation for Forest Inventory Projection Models.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000443","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48927183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon Uptake and Forest\u0000Management under Uncertainty:\u0000Why Natural Disturbance Matters","authors":"G. C. Kooten, C. Johnston, Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh","doi":"10.1561/112.00000446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000446","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how natural disturbance can adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of the forest, and the potential contribution that genomics might make towards offsetting these impacts when carbon is priced. A stochastic dynamic programming model of the BC interior, which includes a detailed carbon accounting module, shows that harvests are delayed as carbon prices rise, with less carbon stored in harvested wood products and more in the forest ecosystem, but an increase in the risk of natural disturbance causes the landowner to harvest sooner. As natural disturbance increases in prevalence and severity, this will somewhat offset the lengthening of rotation age that occurs when carbon is priced. With disturbance, the total amount of carbon sequestered falls significantly, but some of this can be recovered through proactive planting of genetically modified (GM) stems that are more productive and less susceptible to disturbance. To make such an investment worthwhile, however, the costs of planting GM stock should not exceed $120–$150/ha. Finally, this study suggests that a modest price of carbon (somewhat less than $25/tCO2) can be an effective incentive to encourage land owners to reduce the rotation age brought about by disturbance, and generate additional carbon offsets.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000446","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42232681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Importance of Cross-Sector Interactions When Projecting Forest Carbon across Alternative Socioeconomic Futures.","authors":"Jason P H Jones, Justin S Baker, Kemen Austin, Greg Latta, Christopher M Wade, Yongxia Cai, Lindsay Aramayo-Lipa, Robert Beach, Sara B Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth, Jared Creason, Jeff Cole","doi":"10.1561/112.00000449","DOIUrl":"10.1561/112.00000449","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing net GHG emissions, the less mitigation is needed from other sectors. Conversely, if the forest sector begins to contribute a smaller sink, or even becomes a net source, mitigation requirements from other sectors may need to become more stringent and costlier to achieve economy wide emissions targets. There is acknowledged uncertainty in estimates of the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector, attributable to large ranges in the projections of, among other things, future economic conditions, population growth, policy implementation, and technological advancement. We examined these drivers in the context of an economic model of the agricultural and forestry sectors, to demonstrate the importance of cross-sector interactions on projections of emissions and carbon sequestration. Using this model, we compared detailed scenarios that differ in their assumptions of demand for agriculture and forestry products, trade, rates of (sub)urbanization, and limits on timber harvest on protected lands. We found that a scenario assuming higher demand and more trade for forest products resulted in increased forest growth and larger net GHG sequestration, while a scenario featuring higher agricultural demand, ceteris paribus led to forest land conversion and increased anthropogenic emissions. Importantly, when high demand scenarios are implemented conjunctively, agricultural sector emissions under a high income-growth world with increased livestock-product demand are fully displaced by substantial GHG sequestration from the forest sector with increased forest product demand. This finding highlights the potential limitations of single-sector modeling approaches that ignore important interaction effects between sectors.</p>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"34 3-4","pages":"205-231"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7147782/pdf/nihms-1564287.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37826518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating Potential Sources of Aggregation Bias with a Structural Optimization Model of the U.S. Forest Sector.","authors":"Christopher M Wade, Justin S Baker, Greg Latta, Sara B Ohrel","doi":"10.1561/112.00000503","DOIUrl":"10.1561/112.00000503","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Structural economic optimization models of the forestry and land use sectors can be used to develop baseline projections of future forest carbon stocks and annual fluxes, which inform policy dialog and investment in programs that maintain or enhance forest carbon stocks. Such analyses vary in terms of the degree of spatial, temporal, and activity-level aggregation used to represent forest resources, land cover, and markets. While the statistical and econometric modeling communities widely discuss the effects of aggregation bias and have developed correction techniques, there is limited prior research investigating how aggregation bias may affect structural optimization models. This paper explores potential aggregation bias using the Land Use and Resource Allocation model (LURA), a detailed spatial allocation partial equilibrium model of the U.S. forest sector. We ran a series of projections representing alternative aggregation approaches including averaging forest stocks at plot, county, state, and regional levels, across one-, five, or ten-year age classes, and by two or fourteen forest types. We compared the resulting projections of forest carbon stocks and harvesting activities across each aggregation scenario. This allows us to isolate the effect of aggregation on key variables of interest (e.g., GHG emissions and supply costs), while holding all other structural characteristics of the modeling framework constant. We find that age-class and forest type aggregations have the greatest impact on modeling results, with the potential to substantially impact market and greenhouse gas projections. On the other hand, spatial aggregation has a small impact on national carbon stock projections. Importantly, regional results are greatly impacted by different aggregation approaches, with projected regional cumulative carbon stocks differing by more than 25% across scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"34 3-4","pages":"337-366"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7065410/pdf/nihms-1564399.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37729098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Perspective on the Role of Forest Sector Modeling.","authors":"Sara Bushey Ohrel","doi":"10.1561/112.00000506","DOIUrl":"10.1561/112.00000506","url":null,"abstract":"Representing 30% of the world’s ice-free land surface area (International Panel on Climate Change, 2019; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2015), forests will continue to play a large role in global environmental systems, economies, and policies, including efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – but the extent of that future role is largely unknown. Global forests currently provide important ecological (e.g., habitat, water filtration) and economic [e.g., supported a global forest products economy valued over $US247 billion in 2017 (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2019)] services, and they provided a net global carbon sink over the last century (Nabuurs et al., 2007; Houghton, 2008; Smith et al., 2014). Heightened recognition of the importance of forests in sustainable development and mitigation efforts is reflected in recent reports (e.g., International Panel on Climate Change, 2019; Rogelj et al., 2018; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018) as well as commitments to reduce GHGs (e.g., United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015). Forest-based mitigation investments represent vast potential GHG mitigation opportunities (Van Winkle et al., 2017; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005; Sohngen and Mendelsohn, 2003) that are inexpensive relative to other sectors (Rose et al., 2012). In the context of global commitments, land use sector could yield 20%–25% of total emission reductions (Forsell et al., 2016). In the U.S., there has been increased attention to the role of forests in GHG mitigation (U.S. Department of State, 2014; White House, 2016; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2015) and economic development efforts, including advancement of the U.S. bioeconomy (Biomass Research and Development Board, 2016). Consideration of potential future outcomes from land use, land use change1 and forestry (LULUCF) is integral for achieving these policy goals, especially GHG mitigation goals, as the evolution of forests over time (in terms of size, health, how they are managed and their ability to sequester and store carbon) will have important implications for whether or not commitments can be met (Baker et al., 2017; Van Winkle et al., 2017; International Panel on Climate Change, 2019). It is therefore essential that decisionmakers and the research communities that support them – such as the forest sector modeling community – develop the best data and state-of-the-art tools for evaluating potential future forest sector outcomes to inform policy development. Contributions by the papers in this special issue advance our understanding of forest system dynamics and forest sector","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"34 3-4","pages":"187-204"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000506","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37747507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heterogeneous economic and behavioural drivers of the Farm afforestation decision","authors":"Mary Ryan ,&nbsp;Cathal O’Donoghue ,&nbsp;Stephen Hynes","doi":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Using Ireland as a case study, this study examines the economic drivers of the farm afforestation decision for individual farms. Farm incomes and characteristics are observed across the distribution of livestock farmers, using a longitudinal dataset. Potential agricultural and forest income streams are generated and compared in a life-cycle theoretical framework, while the inclusion of attitudinal survey data in the analysis is shown to contribute significantly to the understanding of the planting decision. The study suggests that there is a cohort of younger farmers on larger holdings who might plant if potential forest income is greater than their agricultural income, but we also find that there is a cohort of older farmers on smaller holdings that will never plant, and for whom negative cultural attitudes are stronger than economic drivers. The study concludes that a ‘one size fits all’ programme based solely on financial incentives may not be the most appropriate means to encourage further farm afforestation and suggests that more targeted approaches may be necessary to nuance incentives to increase afforestation rates and facilitate the use of afforestation as an agricultural </span>greenhouse gas mitigation mechanism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 63-74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.jfe.2018.11.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45787165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Negative leakage: The key role of forest management regimes","authors":"Jorge H. García ,&nbsp;Anton Orlov ,&nbsp;Asbjørn Aaheim","doi":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A model of two regions with a common wood market is introduced. Regions may be of two types, according to their forest management regime, namely managed forest plantations<span> (M) and unmanaged open access forests (U). It is found that when regions are of the same type, unilateral climate policy in the forestry<span> sector leads to (positive) carbon leakage. However, when regions are of different types, unilateral climate policy results in negative carbon leakage. Thus, policies aimed at increasing diversity in management regimes, within a wood market, stimulate the emergence of market forces that preserve and enhance forest carbon.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 8-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.jfe.2018.09.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44206130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest-based carbon sequestration, and the role of forward, futures, and carbon-lending markets: A comparative institutions approach","authors":"Andrew Coleman","doi":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfe.2018.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sequestration of CO₂<span><span> in forests is often suggested as a means to offset greenhouse gas emissions. New Zealand’s experience suggests the effects of government programmes to provide </span>carbon credits<span> to forest owners could be enhanced if forward markets<span>, futures markets, or carbon-lending markets were used to manage risks. This paper provides a comparative institutions approach based on the history of commodity markets to argue that carbon lending markets, not forward or futures markets, are likely to be the most convenient form of a forestry<span> carbon market. A carbon lending market will raise the total returns from forestry investments with minimal risks to forest owners, and simultaneously reduce the risks facing other firms contemplating carbon reducing investments. For this reason, governments wishing to include forest sequestration in an Emissions Trading Scheme may wish to encourage the development of a carbon lending market.</span></span></span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 95-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.jfe.2018.12.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42545797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}