Environmental Sciences Europe最新文献

{"title":"A basin-wide assessment of pH changes in the Mediterranean Sea based on reanalysis products","authors":"İsmet Saygu,&nbsp;Fethi Bengil,&nbsp;Sinan Mavruk","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01441-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01441-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ocean acidification, driven by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, poses a growing threat to marine ecosystems and biogeochemical processes. The Mediterranean Sea, characterized by complex circulation patterns and distinct hydrographic sub-basins, represents a sensitive region for assessing basin-scale pH variability. However, long-term in situ pH observations remain spatially sparse and unevenly distributed, limiting the assessment of coherent spatiotemporal trends across the basin. Here, we present a basin-wide spatiotemporal assessment of pH trends in the Mediterranean using an 18-year biogeochemical reanalysis dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. Our analysis reveals a consistent vertical structuring of pH trends, with negative trends in surface waters and contrasting, often neutral to weakly positive tendencies at depth. The magnitude and vertical extent of these trends vary regionally and are closely linked to local circulation regimes, water-mass formation processes, and remineralization dynamics. In deep-water formation regions such as the Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas, negative pH trends extend throughout much of the water column, whereas in the Levantine Basin, mesoscale circulation structures confine pH changes primarily to a relatively thin surface layer. These results demonstrate that basin-scale analyses based on high-quality, publicly accessible biogeochemical reanalysis products, such as CMEMS, can provide a spatially integrated perspective on long-term pH variability, complementing existing observational records by bridging spatial and temporal gaps. The framework presented here offers a reproducible approach for systematically assessing depth and region resolved pH trends.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01441-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148782351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greening the chain: strategic pathways to resource efficiency in the European Union’s digital economy","authors":"Magdalena Radulescu,&nbsp;Alexandra Horobet,&nbsp;Kamel Si Mohammed,&nbsp;Nawazish Mirza,&nbsp;Lucian Belascu","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01442-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01442-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper analyzes the impact of supply chain performance on resource usage and productivity in the EU27 countries between 2010 and 2023, considering its interaction with digitalization, financial market development, and innovation. The research employs an innovative approach of using the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments together with the Method of Moments Quantile Regression and shows that digitalization, which is captured with a composite index of digitalization capability, positively impacts resource productivity and resource use, especially the latter. Higher supply chain pressures (SCHEU) are associated with increased resource consumption and only marginal, short-term effects on resource productivity, reflecting adaptive responses rather than efficiency gains. The findings further indicate that supply chain pressures act as common disruption shocks whose effects depend on digital and financial structures, highlighting the role of adaptive capacity in mitigating disruption-driven resource inefficiencies. Financial development is associated with lower resource productivity but higher resource consumption, reflecting scale effects. Innovation exhibits heterogeneous effects, improving resource productivity in some contexts while increasing resource consumption due to scale and expansion effects. The study highlights differences across EU countries in digital maturity, financial markets, and resource endowments, emphasizing the need for adaptive corporate strategies. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability to supply chain pressures, strengthening digital capabilities, and aligning financial development with sustainability objectives are central to improving resource management in an increasingly disruption-prone global economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01442-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148782352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental exposure to per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances and high myopia: a case-control and toxicogenomic study","authors":"Xiushuai Du,&nbsp;Jiaqi Meng,&nbsp;Keke Zhang,&nbsp;Yujun Pei,&nbsp;Zhou Li,&nbsp;Yan Shen,&nbsp;Xinlei Liang,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Du,&nbsp;Yitian Wu,&nbsp;Wenwen He,&nbsp;Qianxi Chen,&nbsp;Kaihua Zhou,&nbsp;Weiwei Zheng,&nbsp;Xiangjia Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01436-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01436-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Emerging evidence has demonstrated the presence of perfluorinated and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in contact lenses, which may be a major source of ocular PFAS exposure among myopic individuals. However, whether PFAS influences the development of high myopia (HM) remains unclear.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>This case–control study enrolled 99 individuals with HM and 104 age-matched controls at the Eye &amp; ENT Hospital of Fudan University to assess internal PFAS exposure levels. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the associations between PFAS exposure and HM. In addition, toxicogenomic analyses were performed to explore potential biological pathways related to PFAS exposure and HM.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Epidemiological analyses indicated that higher levels of perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) were associated with HM. Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression suggested complex, non-linear associations between mixed PFAS exposure and HM across different exposure levels. Weighted Quantile Sum analysis further identified PFNA as the largest contributor to the overall mixture effect. Toxicogenomic analysis identified 164 overlapping genes between PFAS exposure and HM, which were enriched in biological processes including xenobiotic response, macrophage-derived foam cell differentiation, IL-1β regulation, and pathways related to endocrine, metabolic, lipid, and immune function. Protein–protein interaction network analysis suggested that inflammatory-related genes, including IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF, may be involved in the observed associations.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Overall, this study suggests an association between PFAS exposure and HM and highlights potential involvement of inflammatory-related biological pathways. Given the case–control design and the timing of exposure assessment, causality cannot be established. These findings provide a basis for further longitudinal and mechanistic investigations.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01436-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148751255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In vivo tracking of Cy5.5-labeled polyethylene microplastics following oral exposure in mice","authors":"Dongseon Kim,&nbsp;Dongmin Kim,&nbsp;Chang-Hoon Shin,&nbsp;Kyungrim Yi,&nbsp;Jae Woo Park,&nbsp;Tae-Uk Park,&nbsp;Min-Soo Seo,&nbsp;KilSoo Kim,&nbsp;Hee-Kyung Kim,&nbsp;Sijoon Lee","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01434-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01434-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microplastics (MPs) are widespread environmental contaminants that pose major health risks; however, their in vivo impact remains unclear. In this study, polyethylene MPs (PE-MPs) were fabricated in two size ranges (1–10 and 10–50 μm) and labeled with cyanine 5.5 (Cy5.5) for fluorescence-based tracking. In simulated digestive fluids, the Cy5.5-labeled MPs maintained their physicochemical properties and exhibited stable fluorescence. In vivo imaging system analysis of both particle sizes administered orally to mice, and examined 7 days after repeated exposure, revealed that the particles remained in the gastrointestinal tract, no detectable fluorescence signal was observed in systemic organs, and were excreted via feces, as evidenced by strong fluorescence signals in fecal samples. The findings differ from our previous study, where prolonged exposure to unlabeled PE-MPs led to lung accumulation. The current results highlight the importance of exposure duration and particle tracking methodology. Our evaluation of MP biodistribution underscores the need to assess long-term exposure and establish effective in vivo tracking techniques. Using Cy5.5-labeled PE-MPs, this study confirmed the reliability of the in vivo tracking approach and demonstrated that short-term oral exposure to PE-MPs results in limited systemic translocation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01434-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148751256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-pollutant emissions from staple crop production in China: integrated assessment of PM2.5 pollution and associated health risks","authors":"Zaili Ling,&nbsp;Menglin Zhang,&nbsp;Tao Huang","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01433-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01433-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agricultural production is a major source of air pollutants. Although extensive studies have focused on individual air pollutants or specific agricultural production processes, integrated assessments of emissions from entire crop production processes and their related health impacts are still lacking. In this study, we developed high-resolution gridded emission inventories of six air pollutants from the six production processes for staple crops in China in 2017. The WRF-Chem model and exposure–response relationships were employed to quantify impact of PM_2.5 concentrations and the associated health risks induced by crop production. Results show that staple crop production emitted 2792.7 Gg of NH₃, 2155.5 Gg of PM_2.5, and substantial amounts of CO, SO₂, VOCs, and NOx. These emissions resulted in an annual mean PM_2.5 concentration of 1.9 μg/m³, exhibiting a spatially heterogeneous pattern with particularly elevated levels over key grain-producing regions such as the Middle–Lower Yangtze Plain, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and the Northeast China Plain. Air pollutants from grain production in China were also responsible for 45,356 (95% CI 31182–59227) premature deaths in China, with approximately 80% being concentrated in key grain-producing provinces such as Henan, Anhui, and Shanxi. Straw burning, fertilizer application, and machinery operation were identified as dominant sources. These findings highlight the necessity of implementing region-specific, multi-pollutant control strategies to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of crop production.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01433-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148782194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geospatial prioritization for land degradation restoration: a 37-year assessment of the Syrian coastal region","authors":"Mohammad AlAbed,&nbsp;Rosa Karmoka,&nbsp;Silva Loulou,&nbsp;Turkia Almoustafa","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01420-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01420-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Mediterranean region faces accelerating soil degradation from climate change and human pressures. The Syrian coastal region, a vital socio-ecological zone in the eastern Mediterranean, lacks a science-based framework to prioritize land restoration under Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) targets. We integrated the UNEP-PAP/RAC diagnostic framework with multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1985–2022) and 248 field validation sites. Analyses included land degradation mapping, conservation priority assessment (using 14 socio-economic and biophysical variables), land use/land cover (LULC) change detection, and NDVI trend analysis. Approximately 17.53% (764.76 km²) of the coastal landscape is actively unstable, with sheet erosion dominant. Spatial prioritization identified 6.77% (295.26 km²) as \"Unstable High Priority\" zones requiring urgent intervention. LULC analysis revealed a 197.5% expansion of urban areas and a critical 71.2% loss of closed needleleaf forests over 37 years. NDVI trends exhibited an \"anthropogenic greening\" paradox: mean NDVI increased by 44%, but this was driven by agricultural intensification, masking ongoing degradation of natural forest ecosystems. This study delivers a replicable geospatial tool for targeting soil conservation and restoration efforts, directly supporting LDN implementation and sustainable land management policies in data-scarce Mediterranean coastal regions. The framework can guide resource allocation and enhance environmental regulation in vulnerable zones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01420-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148837620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comment on ‘Asymmetric evaluations of scientific evidence indicating harm compared to evidence indicating an absence of harm in regulatory appraisals’ (van Zwanenberg et al., Environmental Sciences Europe 2025; 37: 138)","authors":"Anthony Tweedale","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01423-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01423-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Van Zwanenberg et al.’s review rightly and unusually focuses on the culture of regulators in chemical risk assessment, driving the latter’s bias for industry’s toxicity findings, and against those of academia. But they underestimate and misunderstand the development of this culture, so they (really, all chemicals policy stakeholders do) miss the obvious solution: to finally utilize existing mandates in pre-market RA that require the evaluation of all available data (AAD). Multitudes of low-dose toxicity findings from academe, that are fundamentally sensitive to detect toxicity, make the long-delayed debate, on the accuracy of these two competing toxicity test methods, urgent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01423-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148172490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the usefulness of existing environmental threshold concentrations (ETCs), with a focus on pharmaceuticals in surface water: a European perspective","authors":"Caroline T. A. Moermond,&nbsp;Marlene Ågerstrand,&nbsp;Thomas Backhaus,&nbsp;Cristiana Cannata,&nbsp;Todd Davidson,&nbsp;Melvin Faber,&nbsp;Gemma Janer,&nbsp;Gerd Maack,&nbsp;Ad Ragas,&nbsp;Els Smit,&nbsp;Jan Woelz,&nbsp;Samuel K. Maynard","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01428-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01428-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Environmental Threshold Concentrations (ETCs), such as the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) and European Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs), represent the concentration of a chemical in an environmental compartment at or below which no adverse effects are expected. While multiple ETCs may exist for a given substance across regulatory frameworks and scientific literature, selecting the most useful value can be challenging. Even when only one ETC exists, its usefulness must be evaluated. This paper addresses this challenge by providing a systematic and stepwise framework for selecting and interpreting ETCs, with a focus on human pharmaceuticals and European regulatory frameworks. However, the ideas behind this may be applied more broadly. The proposed approach begins by defining the context of the assessment and the associated protection goals. It then requires a systematic evaluation of all available ETCs, regarding their relevance and reliability. This includes the use of the most appropriate methodology and underlying data, as well as newly published information. It also considers overall uncertainties, the need to address chronic or short-term peak exposures, and whether the ETCs have been independently reviewed. We apply the framework to metoprolol to demonstrate its usefulness in ensuring that ETCs used in environmental assessments and management decisions are robust and fit for purpose.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01428-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148750957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early warning systems for chemical risks in Europe: methodological components for signal detection, prioritization, uncertainty management and follow-up","authors":"Achilleas Karakoltzidis,&nbsp;Nikiforos Alygizakis,&nbsp;Patrik L. Andersson,&nbsp;Jean-Philippe Antignac,&nbsp;Alexander Badry,&nbsp;Nicole Bandow,&nbsp;Frederic Béen,&nbsp;Lidia Belova,&nbsp;Emilio Benfenati,&nbsp;Mario Carere,&nbsp;Anthoula Chatzimpaloglou,&nbsp;Adrian Covaci,&nbsp;Gaud Dervilly,&nbsp;Valeria Dulio,&nbsp;Valérie Fessard,&nbsp;Catherine Gabriel,&nbsp;Juliane Hollender,&nbsp;Spyros Karakitsios,&nbsp;Anna Kärrman,&nbsp;Tina Kosjek,&nbsp;Bruno Le Bizec,&nbsp;Ines Lacchetti,&nbsp;Foon Yin Lai,&nbsp;Marja Lamoree,&nbsp;Magnus Løfstedt,&nbsp;Maria Margalef,&nbsp;Javad Mottaghipisheh,&nbsp;Wenjuan Mu,&nbsp;Georgios Niarchos,&nbsp;Thanasis Papageorgiou,&nbsp;Nafsika Papaioannou,&nbsp;Dimosthenis A. Sarigiannis,&nbsp;Nikolaos S. Thomaidis,&nbsp;Tobias Schulze,&nbsp;Emma L. Schymanski,&nbsp;Gianluca Selvestrel,&nbsp;Gunnar Thorsén,&nbsp;Xenia Trier,&nbsp;Peter C. von der Ohe,&nbsp;Lutz Ahrens","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01427-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01427-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Chemical pollution can affect ecosystems and human health, highlighting the need for approaches that identify, evaluate, and prioritize emerging chemical risks before they become established public-health issues requiring regulatory actions. This review and perspective article examines methodological components required for Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for chemical risks, with particular attention to the European policy context. It examines methodological components for chemical EWSs rather than proposing a fully implemented system. It considers how state-of-the-art and emerging methods can support signal generation, signal strengthening, prioritization, uncertainty assessment, communication, and follow-up. The reviewed components include matrices and sampling strategies; chemical monitoring, suspect screening, and non-target screening; effect-based methods, New Approach Methodologies, and effect-directed analysis; exposure and hazard modelling; QSAR, read-across, AI-supported and data-mining tools; expert evaluation; and governance processes that link scientific signals to proportionate follow-up. The conceptual workflow is used as an example of how these components may be organized into a signal-handling process, while EU-level developments provide the broader policy and governance context. The actionable value of a chemical EWS does not depend on any single method, but on structured integration of complementary evidence streams. An effective EWS should combine sensitive weak-signal detection with transparent prioritization, explicit uncertainty assessment, FAIR and interoperable data infrastructures, and clearly assigned responsibilities for communication and follow-up.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture><span>The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.</span></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01427-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148172322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The amazon effect and the hidden costs of packaging waste: a Monte Carlo assessment of municipal fiscal and environmental externalities","authors":"Cumhur Dülger,&nbsp;Fabian Behrendt","doi":"10.1186/s12302-026-01429-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-026-01429-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The rapid expansion of e-commerce—the \"Amazon Effect\"—has transformed consumption and logistics patterns while generating a sharp rise in packaging waste. This waste stream imposes hidden fiscal and environmental costs on municipalities, which must scale up collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure under binding budget constraints. Existing research relies predominantly on deterministic, material-flow approaches and largely overlooks parameter uncertainty and the fiscal externalities transferred from private consumption to local governments. This study reconceptualizes the Amazon Effect as a combined environmental and fiscal externality of digital commerce.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>An integrated cost–benefit and externalities framework was combined with a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations per scenario) to evaluate four stylized governance pathways—Waste-as-Usual, Waste Under Control, Circular Economy, and a community-integrated (ST-Integrated) scenario—for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The Istanbul metropolitan area was used as an illustrative scaling case. Under the modelling assumptions adopted here, the Waste-as-Usual scenario consistently produced negative expected net benefits, whereas the Circular Economy and ST-Integrated scenarios generated positive expected fiscal and environmental outcomes in more than 85% of simulated parameter combinations. Total system costs were highly sensitive to waste-growth trajectories.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Packaging waste from e-commerce should be treated not only as an environmental by-product but also as a municipal fiscal externality. Circular and community-integrated governance pathways appear more likely to remain fiscally and environmentally robust under uncertainty than Waste-as-Usual (WAU) approaches. Policy implications include strengthening Extended Producer Responsibility frameworks to cover digital-economy actors, deploying real-time monitoring tools, and exploring green-financing instruments such as green bonds and carbon offsets, while recognizing the limits of stylized modelling for context-specific policy design.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-026-01429-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148172321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}