Environmental Monitoring and Assessment最新文献

{"title":"Trace metals contamination in freshwater fish in Brazil: related factors, environmental impacts, and risks to human health","authors":"Danielma Silva Maia,&nbsp;Jordi Sierra,&nbsp;Esther Martí,&nbsp;Guilherme Sgobbi Zagui","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15977-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-15977-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Freshwater fish are essential components of the aquatic food chain and an important source of protein and nutrients for various communities, especially riverine populations. However, water pollution is one of the main causes of metal bioaccumulation in the organs of these animals. This study conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature on trace metal contamination in freshwater fish in Brazil. The methodological procedure was structured in three stages: definition of the research problem, application of a relevance test with inclusion and exclusion criteria, and selection of eligible studies for the review. Regional heterogeneity was observed in the scientific production on metals in freshwater fish in Brazil, with a higher concentration of studies in the Northern region. The studies indicate a predominance of native species and demonstrate that trophic level, feeding habits, and interaction with the habitat influence the bioaccumulation of metals in freshwater fish in Brazil. There was also consensus that the metals of greatest toxicological and environmental relevance are Pb, Cd, Cr, and Hg, which were the most frequently identified in the studies. The contamination profile of metals in fish varies regionally and is directly related to anthropogenic activities such as mining, intensive agriculture, urbanization, and effluent discharge. Health risk assessment studies indicate that the daily intake of some potentially toxic trace metals (cadmium, lead, and mercury) may exceed the maximum limits established by legislation, mainly affecting populations with high fish consumption, such as Amazonian riverine and Indigenous communities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-026-15977-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of predictive equations for the early identification of uranium contamination using basic hydrochemical parameters in the groundwater of Punjab, India","authors":"Anjali Kerketta,&nbsp;Harmanpreet Singh Kapoor,&nbsp;Prafulla Kumar Sahoo","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15974-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-15974-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Groundwater uranium (U) prevalence in Punjab potentially threatens human health, with increasing incidence of kidney ailments, and other issues. Different aspects of U contamination have been thoroughly investigated in the region; however, a simple and cost-effective approach for the early detection of U at the local scale is lacking. Consequently, we aim to develop reliable and efficient predictive equations using commonly measured water quality parameters. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Logistic Regression (LR) were adopted to model continuous U levels and categorical U class (for U30: Class 1 (U &gt; 30 µg/L) and Class 0 (U ≤ 30 µg/L), and similarly for U60: Class 1 (U &gt; 60 µg/L) and Class 0 (U ≤ 60 µg/L)), respectively. The adjusted <i>R</i>^<i>2</i> and deviance explained for multivariate GAM are 0.73 and 75.7%, respectively, with TDS-HCO₃¯, TDS-Na⁺, and HCO₃¯-Na⁺ as significant interacting pairs. Groundwater U increased with the increase of HCO₃¯ and Na⁺ above 400–600 mg/L and TDS at 1000–1500 mg/L. This shows that greater ionic strength, excess desorption from mineral surfaces, and uranyl-carbonate complexation facilitated U enrichment in the region. The stepwise LR performed exceptionally for both U30 and U60, achieving accuracies of 94% and 96%, respectively. The resulting predictive equations are <span>(P_{U30}=1/1+text{e}^{-[-32.10+6.72(log10_TDS) + 1.20(log10_Na) + 1.57(log10_K) + 1.19(log10_Mg) + 1.05(pH)]})</span> and <span>(P_{U60}=1/1 + text{e}^{-[-39.42 + 7.32(log10_TDS)+1.40(log10_Na)+1.27(log10_NO3)+1.99(pH)]})</span>. The equations were cross-validated using an independent dataset, achieving more than 80% accuracy, indicating their reliability. Thus, it can serve as an efficient tool for determining groundwater U contamination at unmonitored locations in Punjab, thus aiding in groundwater management and attaining SDG 6.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interspecific differences in the Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) of plants in an urban roadside environment: relationships with biochemical indicator profiles","authors":"Chen He,&nbsp;Jiayi Liu,&nbsp;Zhuofan Zhang,&nbsp;Wenting Zhang,&nbsp;Chenhui Wei,&nbsp;Lin Zhang,&nbsp;Qiaoming Zhang,&nbsp;Zhendong Hong","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-16014-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-16014-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban roadside plants can differ in their leaf biochemical profiles even when they grow along the same transect. The Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) brings together several of these traits and offers a way to compare species within a shared setting. This study examined eight commonly planted species along Huaxia Road in Luoyang, China. Leaves were sampled monthly from June to August 2023, with three site-level composite samples for each species in each month. Leaf ascorbic acid (AsA), total chlorophyll content (TCC), extract pH, and relative water content (RWC) were measured and used to calculate APTI. Statistical comparisons focused on differences among species within each month; patterns across months were described from the observed values. All eight species fell within the sensitive category under the applied APTI thresholds, although their index values differed. The highest 3-month mean values were found in <i>Prunus cerasifera</i> (9.842) and <i>Nerium oleander</i> (9.570), while <i>Paeonia suffruticosa</i> (8.983) and <i>Eriobotrya japonica</i> (8.414) had the lowest. <i>Prunus cerasifera</i> ranked first in June and July, whereas <i>Nandina domestica</i> had the highest value in August. <i>Eriobotrya japonica</i> remained lowest in all 3 months. Individual leaf traits did not consistently follow the overall APTI ranking: <i>Paeonia suffruticosa</i> had high AsA despite its low mean APTI, and <i>Photinia serratifolia</i> showed comparatively high TCC while remaining in the sensitive category. RWC was positively correlated with APTI in every month, partly reflecting its inclusion in the index. <i>Prunus cerasifera</i> and <i>Nerium oleander</i> had the highest relative APTI among the eight species examined.</p><h3>Graphical Abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water quality and associated environmental factors in a shallow regulating lake of the south-to-north water diversion project: a case study of Nansi Lake, China","authors":"Yisu Zhang,&nbsp;Yingying Chen,&nbsp;Rui Zhang,&nbsp;Liwei Yang,&nbsp;Shiyue Chen","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15990-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-15990-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Nansi Lake is a key regulating lake of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project. We characterized survey-occasion and spatial variability in water quality and examined associations among physicochemical variables at 62 sites sampled in spring, summer, and autumn 2019 and winter 2021. Water-quality conditions were evaluated using the conventional Nemerow pollution index and the trophic level index; the legacy standard-value-ratio formulation was retained for sensitivity analysis. Total phosphorus (TP) and the permanganate index (CODMn) were elevated in summer and autumn 2019, coinciding with lightly eutrophic conditions, whereas total nitrogen (TN) peaked at 8.46 mg L⁻¹ in winter 2021. Linear mixed-effects models showed significant survey-occasion effects on TN, TP, and CODMn (all <i>p &lt;</i> 0.001) and significant survey occasion × lake zone interactions for TN and TP. The conventional and legacy pollution-index formulations were strongly rank-correlated (Spearman’s <i>ρ</i> = 0.934), although sample-level pollution grades agreed for 79.4% of observations. Survey-specific Spearman analyses showed that neither temperature–TN nor temperature–TP correlations remained significant after Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction. Because the 2019 surveys and winter 2021 survey were conducted in different years, these contrasts may partly reflect interannual variability and should not be interpreted as pure seasonal effects. Together, these analyses distinguish robust survey-occasion patterns from associations that were not stable across surveys. The results support survey-occasion-specific water-quality monitoring, while hydrological mechanisms and operational measures require validation with synchronous hydrological observations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting macro- and meso-litter accumulation in managed and unmanaged beach sectors of the northwestern Adriatic Sea","authors":"Juan Pablo Passetti,&nbsp;Marco Varricchione,&nbsp;Maria Carla de Francesco,&nbsp;Maria Laura Carranza,&nbsp;Antonella Penna,&nbsp;Silvia Casabianca","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-16011-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-16011-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Beach management practices are widely implemented in coastal environments, yet their association with litter size structure remains poorly understood. We evaluated macro- and meso-litter across vegetated (unmanaged) and non-vegetated (managed) beach areas along the northwestern Adriatic coast (Italy) through seasonal stratified surveys comprising 448 plot-level sampling events across 112 plots. Meso-litter accounted for approximately 84% of all recorded items. Negative binomial generalized linear mixed models revealed a significant interaction between litter size class and area type (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Macro-litter abundance was 53% lower in non-vegetated areas (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), whereas meso-litter abundance did not differ significantly between area types (<i>p</i> = 0.539). Binomial mixed models further indicated a higher predicted proportion of meso-litter within the combined meso- plus macro-litter total in non-vegetated areas (OR = 2.70, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), revealing a compositional shift toward smaller debris fractions in managed beach sectors. These findings suggest that beach management is associated with changes in litter size structure and that monitoring approaches based exclusively on macro-litter may not fully capture variation in coastal litter composition. Incorporating meso-litter into monitoring programs could therefore improve assessments of coastal litter dynamics and support more comprehensive management strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-026-16011-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A local exploratory assessment of mangrove aboveground carbon stocks based on Sentinel-2 NDVI in Pangpang Bay, Indonesia","authors":"Esa Fajar Hidayat,&nbsp;Nirmawana Simarmata,&nbsp;Alena Cansery,&nbsp;Miga Magenika Julian,&nbsp;Kutubuddin Ansari","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-16008-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-16008-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mangrove ecosystems play an important role in climate change mitigation through their capacity to store large amounts of blue carbon. Accurate estimation of aboveground biomass (AGB) is therefore essential for monitoring carbon dynamics and supporting sustainable mangrove management. This study evaluated the applicability of Sentinel-2-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for estimating mangrove aboveground biomass and carbon stocks in Pangpang Bay, East Java, Indonesia. Field measurements from 13 sample plots were used to develop an empirical relationship between NDVI and AGB. The resulting regression model (AGB = − 871.15 + 4562.73 × NDVI) showed a significant positive relationship (<i>R</i>² = 0.649, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), indicating that NDVI explained approximately 65% of the observed biomass variability. Application of the model to multitemporal Sentinel-2 imagery (2019, 2022, and 2025) revealed substantial spatial and temporal variation in mangrove biomass and carbon stocks. Biomass and carbon declined markedly between 2019 and 2022, corresponding to a 35.1% reduction in mean NDVI, and showed only limited recovery by 2025. Areas dominated by mature <i>Rhizophora</i> and <i>Bruguiera</i> stands consistently exhibited higher biomass and carbon stocks than <i>Sonneratia</i>-dominated stands. These findings suggest that Sentinel-2 NDVI provides a practical and cost-effective approach for monitoring mangrove biomass dynamics and supporting blue carbon assessment, ecosystem restoration, and monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) programs in data-limited coastal environments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Speciation-informed Bayesian assessment of metal(loid) exposure from Akora River fish, Ghana, for consumption guidance","authors":"Ebenezer Aquisman Asare,&nbsp;Dickson Abdul-Wahab,&nbsp;Elsie Effah Kaufmann,&nbsp;Rafeah Wahi,&nbsp;Zainab Ngaini,&nbsp;Peter Osei","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15997-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-15997-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Freshwater fish from mining-influenced rivers can transfer metal(loid)s to consumers, but risk estimates in low resource settings often ignore non-detects, chemical speciation and receptor-specific uncertainty. This study assessed water, sediment and market fish from eight stations along the Akora River, Ghana, and developed a censoring-aware hierarchical Bayesian framework to estimate dietary exposure from <i>Oreochromis niloticus</i> and <i>Clarias anguillaris</i>. Eight metal(loid)s (Hg, Zn, As, Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb and Cd) were analysed by ICP-OES and cold-vapour atomic fluorescence spectroscopy. Posterior fish concentrations were propagated through speciation priors, intake assumptions and dose–response models to estimate non-cancer HI, TCR and BLL for children, WOCBA, adults and high-consumers. Cr and Ni dominated water-column contamination, reaching 55× and 23× WHO guideline values downstream, whereas fish metal concentrations showed little species-specific separation. Median non-cancer HI remained below the screening threshold for all receptor groups, but exceedance probabilities reached approximately 15–17% for children and high-consumers. TCR exceeded 10⁻⁶ in 35–78% of receptor-specific posterior draws, driven mainly by iAs and Cr(VI) assumptions. Median BLL predictions remained below 3.5 µg/dL, although upper-tail exceedance was plausible for children and high-consumers. Sensitivity analysis showed that FIR, BW and speciation/toxicological parameters dominated uncertainty, while additional precision in total-metal concentration had limited value. The results support speciation-focused monitoring, receptor-specific consumption surveys and Ghana-specific freshwater fish consumption guidance.</p><h3>Graphical Abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Still exposed? DDT and PCB levels in Black-headed Gull eggs collected from the Baltic Sea","authors":"Magdalena Wlodarz,&nbsp;Friederike Habedank,&nbsp;Angela Schmitz Ornés","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15987-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-15987-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Legacy pollutants continue to be detected in wildlife and ecosystems, even decades after regulatory action. The study provides the first comprehensive assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB congeners 28, 52, 101, 138, 153, 180) and chlorinated pesticides, including hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites in Black-headed Gull (<i>Chroicocephalus ridibundus</i>) eggs from the southern Baltic Sea, covering the largest breeding colonies between Germany and Poland. Sampling was conducted over 2 consecutive years. All eggs (<i>n </i>= 60) contained DDT and its metabolites and PCB congeners above the reporting level, with mean total PCB concentrations of 0.135–0.268 mg/kg and mean total DDT concentrations of 0.42–0.63 mg/kg. HCB was quantified at low levels (0.01–0.02 mg/kg) in five eggs, which does not allow conclusions about site-specific sources. HCH was not quantified in any sample. No relationships were found between contaminant concentrations and biometric parameters. The consistent occurrence and concentrations of PCBs and DDT metabolites highlight the enduring environmental relevance of these substances. Acute toxic effects were not directly assessed in this study; only associations with measured endpoints were evaluated. Our findings provide crucial new baseline data for the Baltic Sea region and reinforce the value of Black-headed Gull eggs as bioindicators of legacy and chemical exposure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-026-15987-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tampa Bay observing network: a continuous data acquisition system in support of science and environmental management","authors":"Bo Yang,&nbsp;Yonggang Liu,&nbsp;Jason A. Law,&nbsp;Robert H. Weisberg,&nbsp;Samantha E. D’Angelo,&nbsp;Kaili Qiao,&nbsp;Marcus W. Beck,&nbsp;Edward T. Sherwood,&nbsp;Thomas K. Frazer","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-16007-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-16007-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Tampa Bay estuary is a vital ecological and economic hub, whose productive, shallow-water habitats are highly vulnerable to both chronic anthropogenic stress and acute environmental disturbance events (e.g., extreme weather, human incidents). Historically, the bay’s health was monitored primarily through low-frequency, monthly field sampling that has provided a foundational baseline of water quality for the last fifty years. However, discrete sampling is inadequate for capturing the rapid, high-frequency processes that govern the bay’s physics and biogeochemistry. Recent perturbations to the Tampa Bay system have exposed this shortcoming and illustrated clearly the need for an autonomous, continuous data acquisition system. This paper introduces the Tampa Bay observing network (TBON), a system designed for high-frequency environmental data acquisition. In addition to detailing its design and operation, case studies are reported to demonstrate its capacity to: (1) supplement traditional low-frequency field sampling, (2) bridge data gaps, and (3) provide continuous monitoring during acute disturbance events when field sampling is impractical. This work is also aimed at informing resource managers and stakeholders about TBON's capabilities and data availability, thereby facilitating its utilization for collaborative research, environmental protection, and effective policy formulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-026-16007-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149098970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response-calibrated SWAT process information for daily total nitrogen prediction in a gate-controlled shallow lake","authors":"Yixuan Zou,&nbsp;Jialang Chen,&nbsp;Chi Zhou,&nbsp;Ting Yu,&nbsp;Xiaoting Lin,&nbsp;Yunqi Chen,&nbsp;Baowei Yan","doi":"10.1007/s10661-026-16006-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-026-16006-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Daily total nitrogen (TN) prediction in gate-controlled shallow lakes is hindered by the mismatch between catchment nutrient export and section observations. Here, we introduce response calibration, a new section-scale concept that transforms non-point-source process information from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) into effective predictors by adapting it to transport lag and gate-regulated hydrodynamics. In Honghu Lake, the response-calibrated SWAT-ridge model achieved an RMSE of 0.14 mg/L and an NSE of 0.79 on the 50-day late-autumn/winter independent test set, reducing RMSE by 34.07% relative to conventional monitoring inputs. Raw SWAT outputs added directly as predictors provided no gain, with an RMSE of 0.21 mg/L, showing that their value arose from response calibration rather than from feature addition. The gains were largest during rainfall-affected periods and under low-exchange conditions, when runoff activation and lake retention amplify the source-to-section mismatch. In the 2024 forward evaluation, skill was lower in the highest-concentration quartile, where RMSE reached 0.30 mg/L, and in 2022, a year outside the calibrated regime. This framework provides a practical way to use insufficiently calibrated process-model outputs as section-oriented priors for short-term water quality prediction in hydraulically regulated lakes where inflow water quality is unmonitored.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"198 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149099157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}