Environmental Monitoring and Assessment最新文献

{"title":"Impact of climate change on hydrological fluxes in the Upper Bhagirathi River Basin, Uttarakhand","authors":"Shyam Sundar Bhardwaj,&nbsp;Madan Kumar Jha,&nbsp;Bhumika Uniyal","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13676-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13676-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Himalayan rivers are the major source of freshwater resources and have a tremendous potential for hydroelectric generation. However, assessing the water availability under climate change is challenging due to data scarcity, undulating topography, and complex climatic conditions. SWAT modeling investigates all potential consequences of variations in climate on the hydrological fluxes in the Upper Bhagirathi River Basin. Two global circulation models (GCMs) with three different climatic scenarios were employed. Quantile mapping has been used to correct the bias of GCM data. The developed model accurately simulated streamflow during calibration and validation at daily (NSE = 0.79 − 0.74, <i>r</i> = 0.89–0.87, and RMSE = 61.95 m³/s–79.75 m³/s) and monthly (NSE = 0.92 − 0.93, <i>r</i> = 0.96–0.97, and RMSE = 34.19 m³/s–37.39 m³/s) time steps. The analysis of the outcomes from MIROC6 and NorESM2-LM revealed that the rise in streamflow, surface runoff, lateral flow, and baseflow is more pronounced in MIROC6 across all three climatic scenarios. Under all scenarios, both MIROC6 and NorESM2-LM models show significant variations in snowfall and snowmelt patterns, with the area under snowfall reaching up to 51.65% for MIROC6 under SSP1-2.6 and snowmelt area peaking at 64.30% for MIROC6 under SSP2-4.5. This study’s findings will offer essential insights for policymakers, practitioners, and water resource managers in developing climate-resilient strategies for sustainable water management in Himalayan catchments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143423251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of construction land expansion on cultivated land fragmentation in China, 2000–2020","authors":"Liang Zheng,&nbsp;Jianpeng Wang,&nbsp;Yi Zeng,&nbsp;Tianci Gu,&nbsp;Wanxu Chen","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13720-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13720-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The construction land expansion (CLE) in China, based on the occupation of cultivated land, has resulted in a notable alteration of the landscape of cultivated land, leading to an increase in cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) in China. However, previous studies have devoted minimal attention to CLF due to CLE, thereby constraining the coordination of CLE and cultivated land conservation. Accordingly, the study examined the impact mechanism of CLE on CLF utilizing land use/cover datasets and the geographically weighted regression model from 2000 to 2020 in China. The findings indicate that a considerable amount of cultivated land was converted into construction land. The extent of CLF increased from 0.352 in 2000 to 0.383 in 2020, with the majority of this expansion occurring in the urban–rural fringe. CLE, in conjunction with the expansion of construction land in terms of both area and shape, has evolved from a phenomenon confined to individual cities to one that is characterized by regional expansion. The impact of CLE on CLF was found to be spatially heterogeneous over the study period, with an overall weakening trend. In highly urbanized areas, CLE typically promoted CLF, in contrast to low urbanized areas. The area growth and form complexity of the construction land caused by CLE promoted CLF over most regions. Different levels of land urbanization were identified as the primary contributor to the above results. The study findings support decision-making on food production improvement and construction land control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143423415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring shifting patterns of land use and land cover dynamics in the Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve (1992–2032): a geospatial forecasting approach","authors":"Karma Detsen Ongmu Bhutia,&nbsp;Harekrishna Manna,&nbsp;Rajkumar Guria,&nbsp;Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos,&nbsp;Sanjit Sarkar,&nbsp;Richarde Marques da Silva,&nbsp;FX Anjar Tri Laksono,&nbsp;Manoranjan Mishra","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13710-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13710-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global land use and land cover changes (LULCC), driven by natural and anthropogenic factors, are threatening biodiversity and ecological stability in important reserves worldwide, such as the Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve (KBR) in the Indian Himalayas. KBR, the third-highest peak in the world, is renowned for its numerous glaciers and rich biodiversity, which includes a wide variety of flora and fauna. This study aims to analyze LULCC for the years 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 within the KBR and forecast future trends up to 2032. This study utilized Landsat imagery and the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, while the support vector machine (SVM) technique was employed for image classification. The validation of the CA–Markov model was conducted using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results reveal a 15% reduction in dense forest cover and a 20% increase in open forests and rocky areas over the past three decades, indicative of the impacts from both human activities and natural disturbances. Projections suggest a further 10% decline in dense forests and a 12% increase in open forests and rocky areas over the next decade. Additionally, a 5% increase in agricultural land and a 3% rise in built-up areas are anticipated. The model’s accuracy, as validated by the ROC curve, reached 85%. Future research should aim to enhance model accuracy and incorporate the effects of climate change to improve LULCC projections. This comprehensive assessment underscores the importance of proactive strategies in balancing development with ecological preservation, serving as a crucial resource for policymakers and conservationists in the KBR region.</p><h3>Graphical Abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143423252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potentially toxic elements in the agricultural soils of northwestern Bosnia and Herzegovina: spatial and vertical distribution, origin and ecological risk","authors":"Dijana Mihajlović,&nbsp;Sretenka Srdić,&nbsp;Pavel Benka,&nbsp;Nataša Čereković,&nbsp;Predrag Ilić,&nbsp;Dragoja Radanović,&nbsp;Svetlana Antić-Mladenović","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13758-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13758-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Identifying dominant sources and distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soils is vital for environmental protection. However, detailed data on the ecological risks posed by PTEs are still limited in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This research aimed to fill that gap by examining the distribution and pollution levels of nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), and lead (Pb) in agricultural soils across three geomorphological units in the northwestern region of BiH. The study involved analyzing 338 soil samples collected from 169 sites at two soil depths: the arable layer (0–25 cm) and the sub-arable layer (25–50 cm). The average PTE contents across the entire study area followed the increasing order: Cu &lt; Pb &lt; Zn &lt; Ni. Notably, the total Ni content exceeded the allowed maximum in 65.4% of the analyzed soils, with the highest exceedance in unit I (80.0%), followed by unit II (57.4%) and unit III (44.3%). Conversely, the total contents of Zn, Cu, and Pb were predominantly below the permissible maximum, with over 98% of the samples within safe limits. The study also found a homogeneous vertical distribution of all elements across different soil depths and an absence of significant ecological risk according to applied criteria: geo-accumulation index (Igeo), pollution index (PI), and pollution load index (PLI). These findings collectively suggest the dominance of natural (geochemical) sources of examined PTEs in the soils of this region. In addition to valuable insights into the soil environmental quality, this research underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and risk assessment to protect soil health.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143423139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of atmospheric microplastics: A case study in Shenzhen City, a southern coastal area of China","authors":"Kuan Chang,&nbsp;Yuman Yuan,&nbsp;Yong Ma,&nbsp;Qian Sun,&nbsp;Yulai Han","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13741-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13741-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sources of atmospheric microplastics (AMPs) are complex and widely distributed. Microplastic pollution is particularly severe in urban areas. In this study, the abundance of AMPs was investigated at ten representative sampling points, with three points at an experimental building, and seven sample points at a residential district, an industrial area, a park, a farmland, a roadside, a river, and a seaside, respectively. The results show that the average abundance of AMPs is 2.22 n/m³, with a range from 1.31 to 4.5 n/m³. Human activities significantly contribute to the release of MPs. Furthermore, the abundance of AMPs decreases with increasing altitude. The predominant colors of AMPs are black and transparent, and particle sizes predominantly range from 50 to 200 µm. The micro-Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (µ-FTIR) analysis indicates that AMPs are primarily composed of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with fibrous shapes being predominant. In the principal component analysis (PCA), it was observed that AMPs exhibit a positive correlation with temperature and a negative correlation with humidity. This research may shed new light on future policy-making in microplastic control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence of aeroallergen sensitization in a polluted and industrialized area: a pilot study in South Africa’s Vaal Triangle","authors":"Dorra Gharbi,&nbsp;Frank Harald Neumann,&nbsp;Jurgens Staats,&nbsp;Marinda McDonald,&nbsp;Jo-hanné Linde,&nbsp;Tshiamo Mmatladi,&nbsp;Keneilwe Podile,&nbsp;Stuart Piketh,&nbsp;Roelof Burger,&nbsp;Rebecca M. Garland,&nbsp;Petra Bester,&nbsp;Pedro Humberto Lebre,&nbsp;Cristian Ricci","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13718-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13718-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This pioneering study evaluates the prevalence of aeroallergens reactivity among atopic populations living in the Vaal Triangle Airshed Priority Area (VTAPA), South Africa. A total of 138 volunteers (51 males and 87 females), of African, colored, white, and Asian ethnicity, and with a mean (range) age of 22 (18–56) years were participating in the study. The study was conducted on the North-West University (NWU) campus in Vanderbijlpark/VTAPA. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire was utilized for pre-screening to identify individuals with probable allergic dispositions. Subsequently, skin prick testing was conducted using commercial aeroallergen extracts for all confirmed participants with allergy symptoms. One hundred six participants were clinically diagnosed with pollen and fungal spore allergies. The highest allergy prevalence was attributed to <i>Cynodon dactylon</i> ((L.) Pers) (Bermuda grass) (41.5%), followed by <i>Lolium perenne</i> (L.) (ryegrass), grass mix, and <i>Zea mays</i> (L.) (maize) (31.1%), respectively. Moreover, among the tree allergens, <i>Olea</i> (L.) (olive tree) was the most prevalent allergen (20; 18.8%), followed by <i>Platanus</i> (L.) (plane tree) (18; 16.9%). Among the weeds, 16 (15.1%) participants were allergic to the weed mix (<i>Artemisia</i> (<i>L.</i>) (wormwood), <i>Chenopodium</i> (Link) (goosefoot), <i>Salsola</i> (L.) (saltwort), <i>Plantago</i> (L.) (plantain), and 11 (10.3%) to <i>Ambrosia</i> (L.) (ragweed)). Regarding the fungal spores, <i>Alternaria</i> (Fr.) (9; 8.5%) followed by <i>Cladosporium</i> (Link) (5; 4.7%) had the highest skin sensitivity. In this pilot study, our findings provide insights into the prevalence of allergic responses in the study population—underlining the strong impact of allergens of exotic plants—and contribute to the existing aerobiological data in South Africa.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-025-13718-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metal contamination in Shitalakshya River water: ecological and health risk implications","authors":"G. M. M. Anwarul Hasan,&nbsp;Farhana Rinky,&nbsp;Khondoker Shahin Ahmed,&nbsp;Kiron Sikdar,&nbsp;Mohammad Moniruzzaman","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13750-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13750-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Shitalakshya River, vital to the Dhaka district, faces severe pollution challenges due to industrial discharges, urban runoff, and other anthropogenic activities. This study investigated the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals in the river water, utilizing GC–MS/MS and ICP-MS techniques. The results revealed a total PAH concentration ranging from 4.97 to 5.87 ng/mL, with 3-ring PAHs being the most prevalent. Heavy metals such as Fe, As, Ni, and Zn were found in significant concentrations, exceeding international standards for drinking water and aquatic life. The ecological risk assessment identified benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene as the highest threats to aquatic organisms. Health risk assessments indicated substantial risks from dermal and ingestion exposures, particularly due to arsenic, highlighting potential long-term health implications for local residents. The study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive monitoring, pollution source identification, and stringent regulatory measures to mitigate these risks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Desertification dynamics and future projections in Qaidam Basin, China","authors":"Jinjun Han,&nbsp;Jianping Wang,&nbsp;Chuntao Zhao,&nbsp;Chao Yue,&nbsp;Zhaofeng Liu","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13730-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13730-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The desertification in the Qaidam Basin has significantly impacted the ecological environment and human livelihood. Amidst the backdrop of anomalous climate warming, predicting the dynamic changes and future trends of desertification within the basin is imperative. In this study, we employ a variety of spatio-temporal statistical analyses to examine the evolutionary trend and driving forces of desertification from 2000 to 2021, integrating vegetation coverage (FVC) indices with climatic factors. Furthermore, a predictive model for desertification was developed, utilizing 6th international coupled model comparison programme (CMIP6) model data coupled with a multivariate pixel-based regression approach. The results indicate a 13% reduction, equivalent to 35,766 km², in the area of severe desertification in the Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2021. Both non-desertification and mild desertification increased by 7%, indicating a notable reduction in the severity of desertification processes. However, compared to the period from 2000 to 2010, the pace of desertification reversal slowed down between 2011 and 2021, corresponding to the waning upward trend in temperature and precipitation in the upper basin. The desertification prediction model revealed that under the SSP1-26, SSP3-70, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85 scenarios, the vegetation coverage is projected to decline at rates of 0.004/10a, 0.003/10a, 0.002/10a, and 0.002/10a, respectively, from 2015 to 2100. This suggests that desertification in the basin is likely to worsen over time, with greater radiative forcing leading to more pronounced desertification effects. Future FVC projections suggest that desertification mitigation in the Qaidam Basin will plateau around 2040 and then worsen, particularly in the northeast Qilian Mountains. This trend may be due to glacier melting from ongoing climate warming, leading to reduced regional water resources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential mitigation practices to reduce methane emissions from livestock in rural India and policy recommendations","authors":"Raji Pushpalatha,&nbsp;Thendiyath Roshni,&nbsp;S. Sruthy,&nbsp;Ghanshyam Upadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13706-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13706-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is important to quantify the emissions from livestock to adapt mitigation practices for the rural communities where the livestock populations lie. This study reviewed the existing empirical models and selected a simple model that requires only one input, i.e., the dry matter intake (DMI), to estimate methane emissions from livestock. This input can be easily recorded by the rural communities to quantify the emissions from their livestock. The data required to estimate the methane emissions is collected from selected rural communities in the northern part of India. It is observed from the pilot study that based on the quantity of feed, the emissions are highest for buffaloes (133.65–275.63 g/d/livestock) followed by cows (109.2–217.42 g/d/livestock) and sheep (41.81–58.93 g/d/livestock). The study also recommends the necessity to focus on quality feeds, feed additives such as coconut oil and seaweed, using improved forage varieties, technological innovations for breeding, manure management, and sustainable integrated livestock farming systems. Policies and schemes are also required to mainstream research on livestock and issues leading to emissions, such as scaling up the production of low-emission species like poultry, sheep, and pigs. Policies promoting mixed farming and advanced breeding research, improved feed quality and accessibility, and policies to support incentives that can drive behavioral changes among producers and consumers should also be analyzed and updated. Livestock are mainly in rural communities, and hence it is an important task for researchers and academicians to train the rural communities to quantify the emissions, and the adaptation and mitigation practices to overcome them. The outcome of the study can be used as resource material to empower rural communities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dietary mercury exposure through fish consumption in a coastal community in northwestern Mexico: a comparison of toxicokinetic models","authors":"Nydia Zamora-Arellano,&nbsp;Jorge Ruelas-Inzunza,&nbsp;Pamela Spanopoulos-Zarco,&nbsp;Miguel Betancourt-Lozano","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13747-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13747-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mercury (Hg) is a highly toxic heavy metal that presents a notable and worldwide threat to human health and the environment. The most direct method to evaluate the potential effects on human health due to Hg exposure is to monitor biological samples. When biological samples are limited, predictive models are valuable tools to estimate levels of Hg exposure. In this study, fish consumption data was used to compare two toxicokinetic models to predict Hg exposure in a coastal population in northwestern Mexico. To calculate daily Hg intake, 15 children, 42 women, and 18 men were surveyed regarding their fish consumption habits. The data were analyzed using deterministic and probabilistic models, and the results were validated by comparing them with the Hg levels in their hair. Fish consumption varied from 46 to 219 g·day⁻¹. Notably, 6.7% of participants exhibited Hg levels that exceeded the oral reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 μg·kg⁻¹ bw·day⁻¹ and were thus considered to be at risk of adverse health effects. The average Hg concentration in hair among the sampled groups ranged from 1.59 to 4.42 μg·g⁻¹ (with two outlier values of 16.96 and 54.07 μg·g⁻¹). The Hg levels in 86.85% of the population surpassed the reference value of 1 μg·g⁻¹. The predictions generated by the deterministic and probabilistic models based on the ingestion rate (<i>CRj</i>) closely mirrored the actual Hg levels in hair. We highlight the importance of mathematical models to predict the body burden of Hg, particularly when sampling resources are limited.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}