Sergio Sierra, Rubén Ramo, Marc Padilla, Adolfo Cobo
{"title":"Optimizing deep neural networks for high-resolution land cover classification through data augmentation","authors":"Sergio Sierra, Rubén Ramo, Marc Padilla, Adolfo Cobo","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13870-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13870-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents an innovative approach to high-resolution land cover classification using deep learning, tackling the challenge of working with an exceptionally small dataset. Manual annotation of land cover data is both time-consuming and labor-intensive, making data augmentation crucial for enhancing model performance. While data augmentation is a well-established technique, there has not been a comprehensive and comparative evaluation of a wide range of data augmentation methods specifically applied to land cover classification until now. Our work fills this gap by systematically testing eight different data augmentation techniques across four neural networks (U-Net, DeepLabv3 + , FCN, PSPNet) using 25 cm resolution images from Cantabria, Spain. In total, we generated 19 distinct training sets and trained and validated 72 models. The results show that data augmentation can boost model performance by up to 30%. The best model (DeepLabV3 + with flip, contrast, and brightness adjustments) achieved an accuracy of 0.89 and an IoU of 0.78. Additionally, we utilized this optimized model to generate land cover maps for the years 2014, 2017, and 2019, validated at 580 samples selected based on a stratified sampling approach using CORINE Land Cover data, achieving an accuracy of 87.2%. This study not only provides a systematic ranking of data augmentation techniques for land cover classification but also offers a practical framework to help future researchers save time by identifying the most effective augmentation strategies for this specific task.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-025-13870-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khawla Lazrak, Zakaria Tazart, Maren Nothof, Sabine Filker, Zineb Hakkoum, Nils Kaczmarek, Elisabeth Berger, Khadija Mouhri, Mohammed Loudiki
{"title":"Assessment of the short-term salinity effect on algal biofilm through field transfer in the Drâa river (Southeastern Morocco) using metabarcoding and morphological analyses","authors":"Khawla Lazrak, Zakaria Tazart, Maren Nothof, Sabine Filker, Zineb Hakkoum, Nils Kaczmarek, Elisabeth Berger, Khadija Mouhri, Mohammed Loudiki","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13842-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13842-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a result of human activities and climate change, salinity levels have risen considerably in many of the world’s rivers, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. This freshwater salinization primarily affects microalgal biofilms, the primary producers in aquatic ecosystems. This study is aimed at assessing short-term salinity effects on benthic algal communities in the Drâa river, Morocco, using biofilm field-transfer experiments. Artificial substrates were initially positioned in three sites of the Drâa river with different salinity levels. After 4 weeks, the biofilm-colonized substrates were transferred from one site to another in both directions. After a further 4 weeks, the algal biofilms were sampled to assess their community composition, alpha and beta diversity, and biomass in response to salinity changes using molecular and morphological analyses. Transferring biofilms from low-salt to saline sites significantly reduced biomass but increased it in the reverse transfer. Eliminating certain sensitive microalgae taxa decreased alpha diversity in all biofilm transfers from low-salt sites to the most saline one. Biofilm diversity increased significantly in the opposite transfer. Significant changes were observed in biofilm composition when transferred into saltwater showing an increase in halophilic and euryhaline diatom taxa. In contrast, transfers from saltwater sites to low-salt sites increased oligohaline diatom species. As a result, increasing salinity reduced algal biomass and diversity, while decreasing salinity caused the opposite effect. These results can help predict the salinity variations effects on benthic algae, highlight the potential dangers of increased river salinization, and promote salinity reduction in aquatic ecosystems subject to secondary salinization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alessandro Carvalho da Fonseca, Daniela Granja Arakaki, Elaine Silva de Pádua Melo, Maura Kawano Hokama, Marta Aratuza Pereira Ancel, Diego Azevedo Zoccal Garcia, Valter Aragão do Nascimento
{"title":"Bioaccumulation of heavy metals in bean planting (Vigna unguiculata L. WALP) and evaluation of the potential risk to human consumption","authors":"Alessandro Carvalho da Fonseca, Daniela Granja Arakaki, Elaine Silva de Pádua Melo, Maura Kawano Hokama, Marta Aratuza Pereira Ancel, Diego Azevedo Zoccal Garcia, Valter Aragão do Nascimento","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13891-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13891-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Beans are one of the most important legumes for human consumption. However, its cultivation in soil contaminated with metal(loid)s may harm the human food chain. We aimed to investigate the accumulation and transfer of macro- and microelements from the soil to cowpea grains. In addition, soil pollution rates and health risks associated with grain consumption were assessed. Soil and grain samples were collected from plantations close to a landfill and a highway in the city of Campo Grande, Central-West Brazil. The quantification of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Mo, Pb, Se, V, and Zn in the bean grain and soil samples of cowpea cultivation was carried out by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES). The pollution index, bioaccumulation coefficient, estimated daily intake, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk were calculated. The concentration of Cd (0.052 ± 0.001—0.069 ± 0.008 mg/100 g) and Pb (0.136 ± 0.019—0.216 ± 0.054 mg/100 g) in grains was above the maximum permissible daily oral dose. In addition, the hazard quotients (HQ) of the elements As, Cd, Pb, Se, and V were above the safety limit, surpassing HQ of 10 for As and Cd at all collection sites and the hazard index was greater than 27 for all sampling locations. The heavy metals As, Cd, and Cr present elevated carcinogenic risk (CRi), above 1.6 × 10<sup>–3</sup> for cowpea intake of all studied locations. The proximity of the cowpea crop to the highway and the landfill contributed to the contamination of the soil and grains. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and understanding the soil–plant-human system, especially when the environmental conditions surrounding crops are favorable to contamination, representing a major risk to public health.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nanophotocatalytic degradation of phenolic contaminants by ZnS nanoparticles synthesized from banana peel extract: a greener approach","authors":"Waseem Ahmad, Sarfaraz Ahmed, Mahvish Shameem, Sanjay Kumar, Shoeb Anwar Ansari","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13899-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13899-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Research focused on the degradation of organic pollutants has seen considerable growth in recent years. The present investigations report a green chemistry route for the creation of ZnS nanoparticles (ZnS NPs) by employing the banana peel extract. X-ray diffraction analysis of the developed material established that the developed material has a cubic structure, while the FTIR spectrum of the fabricated ZnS NPs revealed the functional group present on the surface of the material exhibiting its suitability for the adsorption of the organic pollutant. SEM analysis of the material demonstrated the spherical particles with irregular morphology, and the average size of the material was estimated to be 52 nm. The fabricated ZnS NPs were utilized to capture the hazardous phenol and p-nitrophenol from wastewater. The influence of various process variables including the initial concentration of the pollutant, catalyst dose, pH, and contact time was examined to optimize the maximum efficiency of the photodegradation process. The optimum degradation of the p-nitrophenol and phenol was achieved to be 71% and 80%, respectively, under the specified condition; initial p-nitrophenol concentration 20 PPM, catalyst doses 0.6 gm/L, and the pH 10.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring various types of biomass as adsorbents for heavy metal remediation: a review","authors":"Bhagya Shree, Sachin Kumari, Sushila Singh, Indu Rani, Ankush Dhanda, Reena Chauhan","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13826-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13826-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The intensifying problem of heavy metal contamination in water sources has led to the need for efficient and sustainable remediation technologies. Biomass-based adsorbents have emerged as a promising solution due to their cost-effectiveness, renewability, and environmental advantages. This review thoroughly analyzes recent advancements in biomass-based adsorbents for heavy metal remediation. It evaluates different types of biomass materials, such as agricultural residues, forestry by-products, and aquatic plants, highlighting their adsorptive capacities, modification techniques, and operational efficiencies. The review also explores the mechanisms of metal uptake, such as ion exchange, adsorption, and complexation, and discusses the performance of different biomass adsorbents. Furthermore, it highlights the key challenges and limitations associated with biomass-based adsorbents, such as regeneration issues, stability concerns, and scalability. By consolidating current research and technological developments, this review aims to offer insights into optimizing biomass-based adsorbents for practical applications and outlining future research directions in heavy metal remediation.</p><h3>Graphical Abstract</h3>\u0000<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aya Fadi Mohamed, Ayman S. Mohamed, Amr A. Abdel-Khalek, Shereen R. Badran
{"title":"Synergistic impact of temperature rises and ferric oxide nanoparticles on biochemical and oxidative stress biomarkers in Oreochromis niloticus: relevant environmental risk assessment under predicted global warming","authors":"Aya Fadi Mohamed, Ayman S. Mohamed, Amr A. Abdel-Khalek, Shereen R. Badran","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13789-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13789-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global warming and contamination of freshwater environments with nanoparticles (NPs) pose a global threat to biodiversity. Numerous studies demonstrated the effects of increasing temperatures and NPs separately, but their combined impact on aquatic life remains poorly understood or unstudied, particularly under predicted rising temperatures resulting from global warming (+ 2 and + 4 °C). So, the present study aims to determine how the temperature rises affect the toxicological characteristics of ferric oxide nanoparticles (Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs) on the prevalent freshwater fish, Nile tilapia (<i>Oreochromis niloticus</i>). Fish samples were randomly put into six glass aquaria groups: 0 mg/L Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs and 25 mg/L Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs groups at 30 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C with duplicated aquaria per group for 4 days. Hydrodynamic size and zeta potential evaluations revealed that Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs' aggregation in water decreases with high temperature. Additionally, increasing the temperature and exposure to Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs led to a significant rise in total proteins, albumin, globulin, plasma aspartate aminotransferase (AST), plasma alanine aminotransferase (ALT), plasma alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatinine, and uric acid. We also noticed alterations in the amounts of malondialdehyde (MDA), glutathione reduced (GSH), and catalase (CAT) in the fish's liver and gills. Finally, our findings indicated that Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> NPs' toxicity in fish escalated with increasing temperature, peaking at 34 °C due to particle property changes caused by temperature elevation. Therefore, it should not ignore the impact of the projected global increasing temperatures on NPs toxicity in freshwater habitats.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Soumili Paul, C. K. Haridevi, Swarnendu Bera, Revati Hardikar, Sayyed Ariba Fatima
{"title":"Phytoplankton assemblage and restricted bloom of Merismopedia sp. (Meyen, 1839) in an anthropogenically stressed tropical estuary (Ulhas estuary), India","authors":"Soumili Paul, C. K. Haridevi, Swarnendu Bera, Revati Hardikar, Sayyed Ariba Fatima","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13888-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13888-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study evaluates the effect of nutrients and their spatio-temporal variation in determining the composition of phytoplankton assemblage. The study recorded the restricted bloom of <i>Merismopedia</i> sp. (Meyen, 1839) in the upstream stations U7 and U8 during post monsoon. The study identified high concentration of ammonia and silicate promoted the proliferation of <i>Merismopedia</i> sp. while salinity and nitrate served important roles in the restriction of this genus to meso-oligohaline region. Shannon-Weiner diversity index as pollution index suggested that mid to upstream of the estuary in post monsoon was moderately polluted, which transformed to marginally polluted in pre monsoon season. The study could identify opportunistic species like <i>Thalassiosira</i> sp. in midstream and <i>Merismopedia</i> sp. in upstream of the estuary which outnumbered and led to low diversity index at these zones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jenner Rodas-Trejo, María Gómez-Tolosa, Eduardo J. Naranjo, Sergio López
{"title":"Assessing the effects of landscape attributes in medium and large terrestrial mammal richness inside a tropical rainforest biosphere reserve","authors":"Jenner Rodas-Trejo, María Gómez-Tolosa, Eduardo J. Naranjo, Sergio López","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13865-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13865-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The landscape’s structure significantly impacts how communities assemble due to the environment filtering and the limitation of dispersal processes. Human activities can enhance or alter these factors, resulting in changing environments and isolated animal populations. In studying this, we used 39 camera trap stations during 102 continuous days in preserved and disturbed areas to assess medium and large terrestrial mammals in the Selva El Ocote Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico (REBISO). We identified various groups of mammals and the factors influencing their presence and distribution through VIF, Clustering, RDA, NDMS, ANOSIM multivariate, and niche decomposition (OMI) analyses. The redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that the most significant variables were altitude, distance to main roads and settlements, and forest cover. The optimal multivariate indicator (OMI) analysis accounted for 88.75% of the variability in niche structure. It revealed that <i>Puma concolor</i> exhibited the highest level of specialization (marginality = 2.96), while <i>Nasua narica</i> displayed the most generalist behavior (marginality = 0.26). Natural elements and human impact played a crucial role in the species’ distribution, resulting in patterns in two distinct conditions: one characterized by preserved natural environments and the other affected by significant human impact. Notably, 63% of the species were common in both regions. For instance, <i>Cuniculus paca</i> positively correlated with distance to main roads and altitude, whereas <i>Leopardus pardalis</i> negatively responded to proximity to settlements. This study emphasizes the importance of maintaining habitat connectivity to preserve terrestrial mammal species.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143632383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of tropospheric O3 and NO2 and health impact analysis in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia regions of China","authors":"Chengxuan Guan, Minxia Liu, Jianyang Shi, Yu Li","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13846-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13846-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>O<sub>3</sub> and precursor pollution in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region of China is becoming increasingly severe, and the regional pollution characteristics are also more prominent. To investigate the causes of O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> pollution and the health impacts of O<sub>3</sub>, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> pollution and the health and economic losses in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region were analyzed by using a detector with optimal parameters and the BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-community Edition) model. The results show that O<sub>3</sub> in the troposphere of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia showed a “bimodal” distribution from 2005 to 2022, reaching a maximum value of 32.6 DU in 2010, and the change of NO<sub>2</sub> increased first and then decreased in the troposphere, reaching a peak value of 5.2 × 10<sup>15</sup> molec·cm<sup>−2</sup> in 2011. The seasonal variations of O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> were the highest in winter, the second highest in spring and fall, and the lowest in summer. The high-value area of O<sub>3</sub> was mainly located in the northwest of Gansu. The concentration gradually decreased from northwest to southeast. In contrast, the high-value area of NO<sub>2</sub> was concentrated in the east of Guanzhong Plain and the north of Yulin City, and the overall distribution was high in the east and low in the west. Among the interactions of the nine factors, the interactions of temperature and wind speed, precipitation and wind speed had the highest explanatory power for O<sub>3</sub> changes, with 0.951 and 0.96, respectively, and the interactions of temperature and wind speed, and precipitation and sunshine hours had the highest explanatory power for NO<sub>2</sub> changes, with 0.834 and 0.844, respectively; the interactions among pollutants were weaker than the interactions among meteorological factors. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of premature death in the population. The number of premature deaths in the three provinces gradually decreases from 2018 to 2020, and the proportion of health economic loss to GDP also gradually decreases, from 1.55%, 0.82%, and 3.99% to 0.2%, 0.34%, and 2.86%, respectively. This study can provide theoretical references for the control and health impacts of O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia regions of China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ntuthuko Prosperous Mncwabe, John Odindi, Trylee Nyasha Matongera, Onisimo Mutanga
{"title":"Modelling bush encroachment dynamics using Intensity Analysis and the Cellular Automata model","authors":"Ntuthuko Prosperous Mncwabe, John Odindi, Trylee Nyasha Matongera, Onisimo Mutanga","doi":"10.1007/s10661-025-13808-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10661-025-13808-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bush encroachment is a globally recognized phenomenon linked to adverse effects, including the degradation of grasslands and loss in biodiversity, thereby challenging the conservation of keystone and flagship species, the recreational value of landscapes and local livelihoods. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of bush encroachment is essential to gain insights into its past, present and future encroachment, as well as the severity of transitions. Using RapidEye and PlanetScope satellite imagery, this study adopted Intensity Analysis to examine past and current bush encroachment trends for the periods 2009–2014, 2014–2019 and 2019–2023, while the Cellular Automata (CA) model was used to project future encroachment trends for 2028 and 2033 within a protected area. The results indicated a continuous increase in bush encroachment within the study area. Analysis of land cover intensities shows an intensive change in the research area’s land cover in the first period (2009–2014) compared to subsequent periods. In the first two periods (i.e. 2009–2014 and 2014–2019), woody vegetation gains were more pronounced at the expense of grasslands. However, during the 2019–2023 period, woody vegetation gains were less intensive to grasslands. Moreover, throughout the study period, most grassland gains occurred in bare areas, whilst the primary cause of grassland losses was bush encroachment. The projection of future encroachment trends indicates a continued increase in woody vegetation over the next decade. The results also indicate that bush encroachment is projected to expand by 5.50 and 6.67% in 2028 and 2033, respectively. These findings highlight the urgent need to assess and enhance management schemes within the study area. Gaining critical insights into bush encroachment progression trends and transition intensities can help prioritise landscape management efforts and support decision-making for the restoration of grasslands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":544,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","volume":"197 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10661-025-13808-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}