Transportation Research Part B-Methodological最新文献

{"title":"Revisiting McFadden’s correction factor for sampling of alternatives in multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models","authors":"Thijs Dekker ,&nbsp;Prateek Bansal ,&nbsp;Jinghai Huo","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When estimating multinomial logit (MNL) models where choices are made from a large set of available alternatives computational benefits can be achieved by estimating a quasi-likelihood function based on a sampled subset of alternatives in combination with ‘<em>McFadden’s correction factor</em>’. In this paper, we theoretically prove that McFadden’s correction factor minimises the expected information loss in the parameters of interest and thereby has convenient finite (and large sample) properties. That is, in the context of Bayesian estimation the use of sampling of alternatives in combination with McFadden’s correction factor provides the best approximation of the posterior distribution for the parameters of interest irrespective of sample size. As sample sizes become sufficiently large consistent point estimates for MNL can be obtained as per McFadden’s original proof. McFadden’s correction factor can therefore effectively be applied in the context of Bayesian MNL models. We extend these results to the context of mixed multinomial logit models (MMNL) by using the property of data augmentation in Bayesian estimation. McFadden’s correction factor minimises the expected information loss with respect to the augmented individual-level parameters, and in turn also for the population parameters characterising the shape and location of the mixing density in MMNL. Again, the results apply to finite and large samples and most importantly circumvent the need for additional correction factors previously identified for estimating MMNL models using maximum simulated likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations validate this result for sampling of alternatives in Bayesian MMNL models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103129"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling network capacity potential with imminent supply information part I: Theoretical derivation","authors":"Dianchao Lin ,&nbsp;Li Li","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An urban network’s supply capability is notably impacted by the operational efficiency of its bottlenecks, namely the intersections. An essential and powerful metric for describing a network’s overall supply performance is the capacity region (CR), which represents all potential combinations of capacities for different intersection movements. This study explores the impact of imminent saturation flow rate (I-SFR) information on the CR of traffic networks. The work is separated into Part I and Part II to prevent a lengthy paper. Specifically, in Part I, we systematically formulate the conflicting relationship between different movements using greatest conflicting group and green ratio constraints, formally define the dominating relationship between different CRs, and theoretically demonstrate 1) how knowing the accurate I-SFRs of additional conflicting movements can expand the CR, resulting in a larger CR that dominates the original one, and 2) how improving the prediction accuracy of observed movements’ I-SFRs can enlarge the CR. Part II will develop a “ruler” – the BackPressure control with partial I-SFR information – to measure the changes in CR and validate the theories of Part I through simulation experiments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103150"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143446094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bike network planning in limited urban space","authors":"Nina Wiedemann ,&nbsp;Christian Nöbel ,&nbsp;Lukas Ballo ,&nbsp;Henry Martin ,&nbsp;Martin Raubal","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103135","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of cycling infrastructure in urban environments hinders the adoption of cycling as a viable mode for commuting, despite the evident benefits of (e-)bikes as sustainable, efficient, and health-promoting transportation modes. Bike network planning is a tedious process, relying on heuristic computational methods that frequently overlook the broader implications of introducing new cycling infrastructure, in particular the necessity to repurpose car lanes. In this work, we call for optimizing the trade-off between bike and car networks, effectively pushing for Pareto optimality. This shift in perspective gives rise to a novel linear programming formulation towards optimal bike network allocation. Our experiments, conducted using both real-world and synthetic data, testify the effectiveness and superiority of this optimization approach compared to heuristic methods. In particular, the framework provides stakeholders with a range of lane reallocation scenarios, illustrating potential bike network enhancements and their implications for car infrastructure. Crucially, our approach is adaptable to various bikeability and car accessibility evaluation criteria, making our tool a highly flexible and scalable resource for urban planning. This paper presents an advanced decision-support framework that can significantly aid urban planners in making informed decisions on cycling infrastructure development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103135"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shore-power capacity allocation in a container shipping network under ships’ strategic behaviors","authors":"Zhijia Tan ,&nbsp;Dian Sheng ,&nbsp;Yafeng Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shore power (SP) is an effective way to cut carbon emissions at ports by replacing fuel oil for docked ships. The adoption of SP by ships hinges on the onboard transformer setup cost and the cost saving from SP utilization in comparison with fuel oil. The allocation of SP capacity at ports influences the availability of SP-equipped berths and, along with conventional berths, incurs potential service delays. Misallocation can actually increase port emissions. This paper addresses the SP capacity allocation problem in a general container shipping network with multiple ports and a ship fleet. The service congestion or capacity-dependent waiting time at berths is considered, which results in strategic choices or choice equilibrium of ships on SP adoption. The emission quantity at each port is affected by the choice equilibrium of ships. For the benchmark case with a single port, we analytically identify a threshold SP capacity above which emissions decrease, below which a counterintuitive increase occurs. For the general shipping network, assuming government covers transformer setup costs, we develop an exact method to determine the critical level for each port to ensure emission reductions. A case study based on the Yangtze River is conducted to illustrate the analytical results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103151"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142918066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entropy maximization in multi-class traffic assignment","authors":"Qianni Wang ,&nbsp;Liyang Feng ,&nbsp;Jiayang Li ,&nbsp;Jun Xie ,&nbsp;Yu (Marco) Nie","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Entropy maximization is a standard approach to consistently selecting a unique class-specific solution for multi-class traffic assignment. Here, we show the conventional maximum entropy formulation fails to strictly observe the multi-class bi-criteria user equilibrium condition, because a class-specific solution matching the total equilibrium link flow may violate the equilibrium condition. We propose to fix the problem by requiring the class-specific solution, in addition to matching the total equilibrium link flow, also match the objective function value at the equilibrium. This leads to a new formulation that is solved using an exact algorithm based on dualizing the hard, equilibrium-related constraints. Our numerical experiments highlight the superior stability of the maximum entropy solution, in that it is affected by a perturbation in inputs much less than an untreated benchmark multi-class assignment solution. In addition to instability, the benchmark solution also exhibits varying degrees of arbitrariness, potentially rendering it unsuitable for assessing distributional effects across different groups, a capability crucial in applications concerning vertical equity and environmental justice. The proposed formulation and algorithm offer a practical remedy for these shortcomings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating gap acceptance parameters with a Bayesian approach","authors":"Samson Ting ,&nbsp;Thomas Lymburn ,&nbsp;Thomas Stemler ,&nbsp;Yuchao Sun ,&nbsp;Michael Small","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103157","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The gap acceptance framework is the theoretical basis for modelling traffic flow at intersections with a priority control. Reliable estimation methods for key gap acceptance parameters are important to more accurately predict key traffic performance measures such as capacity and delay. A notable challenge is that the critical gaps are not directly observable. Currently, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is widely accepted as the most reliable method. In this research, we considered a Bayesian approach as an alternative framework for estimating gap acceptance parameters, which achieves a comparable performance to the MLE. We first formalised the gap acceptance statistical model and the estimand of interest, based on a Bayesian hierarchical formulation that naturally captures the variations between drivers. We then tested the performance of each method on simulated dataset, with the Bayesian posterior obtained through the No-U-Turn sampler, an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We showed that the MLE and the posterior mean as a point summary of the full posterior distribution have comparable performance, and both generally achieve a mean absolute error &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≤&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;.&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; s for different major stream flow &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; in our experiment setup. In addition, we found that the standard error is higher for both low and high &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; so any point estimator is unlikely to be equally reliable across all level of &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;’s. Furthermore, we also identified a potential issue when assuming consistent drivers and log-normally distributed critical gaps at high &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;p&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, as the heavy tail of the log-normal can result in unrealistic dataset. The full Bayesian approach also allows inherent uncertainty quantification, which we found to be well-calibrated, in the sense that the credible intervals obtained have roughly the correct frequentist coverage as per confidence intervals constructed with frequentist methods. From a traffic engineering point of view, quantifying uncertainties in gap acceptance parameters, whether using Bayesian or frequentist methods, is important as they induce uncertainties on intersection performance metrics such as capacity and delay, which will allow more informed decision-making for infrastructure investment. In addition, we also assessed the performance of Bayesian methods for more complicated statistical models, using a test scenario involving inconsistent driver behaviour, by jointly estimating the gap acceptance parameters and the inconsistency parameters. Lastly, we demonstrated the applicability of the proposed Bayesian framework to real data collect","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103157"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143072519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling network capacity potential with imminent supply information part II: Backpressure-based validation","authors":"Dianchao Lin ,&nbsp;Li Li","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The capacity region (CR) is a key index to characterize a dynamic processing system’s ability to handle incoming demands. It is a multidimensional space when the system has multiple origin–destination pairs where their service rates interact. An urban traffic network is such a system. Traffic congestion appears when its demand approaches or exceeds the upper frontier of its CR. Part I of this study theoretically proved that (1) accurate I-SFR information of additional conflicting movements can enlarge the CR, and (2) improving the I-SFR prediction accuracy of observed movements can expand the CR. However, such expansion has not been validated through experiments. Part II of this study thus focuses on validating the theoretical findings in Part I. We use a real-time traffic control policy, named BackPressure (BP) control, to act as a ruler to measure the size of CR. We first prove that BP policy with partial I-SFR information can stabilize the network within the corresponding CR. Then we design various calibrated simulation experiments to check the validity of the two findings in Part I. Specifically, we use reserve demand, which represents the distance between a given demand and the frontier of CR, as a direct index to reflect the size of CR, and use delay as an indirect index to reflect the changes in CR. Simulation results confirm the theories in Part I.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103153"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143072643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lookahead scenario relaxation for dynamic time window assignment in service routing","authors":"Rosario Paradiso ,&nbsp;Roberto Roberti ,&nbsp;Marlin Ulmer","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We consider a problem where customers dynamically request next-day home service, e.g., repair or installments. Unlike attended home delivery, customers cannot select a time window (TW), the service provider assigns a next-day TW to each new customer if the customer can feasibly be inserted in the service route of the next day without violating the TWs of the existing customers. Otherwise, customer service will be postponed to another day (which is outside the scope of this work). The provider aims to serve many customers the next day for fast service and efficient operations. Thus, TWs have to be assigned to keep the flexibility of the fleet for future requests. For such anticipatory assignments, we propose a stochastic lookahead method that samples a set of future request scenarios, solves the corresponding team-orienteering problems with TWs, and uses the solutions to evaluate current TW assignment decisions. For real-time solutions to the team orienteering problem, we propose to approximate its optimal solution value with an upper bound. The bound is obtained by solving the linear relaxation of a set packing reformulation via column generation. We test our algorithm on Iowa City data and compare it to several benchmark policies. The results show that our method significantly increases customer service, and our relaxation is essential for effective decisions. We further show that our policy does not lead to observable discrimination against inconveniently located customers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103137"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Airport city and downtown store competition and regulation under incomplete information","authors":"Shiyuan Zheng ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang ,&nbsp;Kun Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many airports have evolved into \"airport cities\" by expanding their business ventures beyond traditional goods and services to include hotels, convention centers, and shopping complexes. These airport cities, often referred to as airport malls, now directly compete with downtown stores due to their increasingly similar range of products and services. Both air passengers and local residents can choose to shop at either the airport mall or downtown stores. We model the government's optimal regulation of airport cities under potentially incomplete information regarding their true operational costs and service quality. Our analytical results suggest that airports can earn \"information rent\" in the form of higher profits when the government lacks complete information about the operational cost of airport mall. This incomplete information results in distortions in airport aeronautical charge and airport mall shopping price. Our findings indicate that it is more socially efficient for the government to allow airports to earn an \"information rent\" through higher aeronautical profits, with the direction of airport price distortion depending on the price elasticity of air travel demand. In contrast, the government's incomplete information about airport mall service quality does not lead to distortions compared to the complete information scenario. We also examined outcomes under different airport city regulation regimes: regulation by the central government (centralization), local government (localization), and both governments (dual regulation). Dual regulation results in the most significant airport pricing distortion, benefiting airports with the highest information rent. However, this approach still yields greater social welfare than localization. Consequently, the central government always has an incentive to intervene in airport city regulation. Nevertheless, our numerical simulations indicate that central government regulation under incomplete information could result in worse social welfare outcomes than no regulation at all.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103131"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real-time policy for yard allocation of transshipment containers in a terminal","authors":"Abdo Abouelrous ,&nbsp;Rommert Dekker ,&nbsp;Laurens Bliek ,&nbsp;Yingqian Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this article, we investigate the problem of allocating storage space in a container terminal’s yard to transshipment containers. The main decision here concerns the block to which a container is assigned for storage until it is loaded later by another vessel. We propose a setting where some target performance measures are imposed on the discharge operations. In turn, the allocation decisions are made so as to reduce driving time from the storage blocks to the berth locations of the vessels that will pick up the containers. The trick here is to find an appropriate trade-off between the times spent on discharge and loading so that neither are delayed significantly. Using results from renewal theory, queuing theory and machine learning, we are able to quantify the effect of our allocation decisions on quay crane productivity. Thereafter, we formulate a mathematical optimization problem for the yard-allocation of containers and apply a meta-heuristic to solve it. Our method was developed for deployment by a software consultancy company for container terminals. We test our method using a real-time simulation and compare it with a benchmark from the literature. We show that our method generates reductions in vessel berth times and provide an overview on its economic impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 103138"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142989516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}