{"title":"Directional Tests and Confidence Bounds on Economic Inequality","authors":"Jean-Marie Dufour , Emmanuel Flachaire , Lynda Khalaf , Abdallah Zalghout","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For standard inequality measures, distribution-free inference methods are valid under conventional assumptions that fail to hold in applications. Resulting Bahadur-Savage type failures are documented, and correction methods are provided. Proposed solutions leverage on the positive support prior that can be defended with economic data such as income, in which case directional non-parametric tests can be salvaged. Simulation analysis with generalized entropy measures allowing for heavy tails<span> and contamination reveals that proposed lower confidence bounds provide concrete size and power improvements, particularly through bootstraps. Empirical analysis on within-country wage inequality and on world income inequality illustrates the usefulness of the proposed lower bound, as opposed to the erratic behavior of traditional upper bounds.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 230-245"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81871379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall","authors":"Leopoldo Catania , Alessandra Luati","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Quasi maximum likelihood estimation<span> of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is discussed. The reference likelihood is that of a location-scale asymmetric Laplace distribution, related to a family of loss functions that lead to strictly consistent scoring functions for joint estimation of VaR and ES. The case of zero mean processes is considered, where quasi maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE) are consistent and asymptotically normal, as well as the case of non-zero mean processes, where quasi maximum likelihood estimators lead to inconsistent estimates due to lack of identification. In the latter situation, the </span></span>asymptotic properties of two stage quasi maximum likelihood estimators (2SQMLE) are derived. QMLE and 2SQMLE are related with sample and M-estimators and compared in terms of asymptotic efficiency. A simulation study investigates the finite sample properties of QMLE, 2SQMLE, sample and M-estimators of expected shortfall.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 23-34"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143150809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The dynamics of U.S. industrial production: A time-varying Granger causality perspective","authors":"Christopher F. Baum , Stan Hurn , Jesús Otero","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.10.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.10.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>The concept of Granger causality is an important tool in applied </span>macroeconomics<span><span>. Recursive econometric methods to analyze the temporal stability of Granger-causal relationships have recently been developed. These recursive procedures are used to re-evaluate the temporal stability of </span>Granger causality<span> between US industrial production and three macroeconomic variables. There appears to be significant evidence of temporal variation in the causal relationships. A clear pattern that emerges from the results is that the causal channels from all three variables to industrial production appear to be very strong in the latter part of the sample period.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 13-22"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88840480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Threshold Autoregressive Nearest-Neighbour Models for Claims Reserving","authors":"Tak Kuen Siu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by claims reserving in run-off triangles, a class of threshold autoregressive nearest-neighbour (TAR-NN) models extending a major class of parametric nonlinear time series models, namely threshold autoregressive (TAR) models, is introduced. The proposed class of models also introduces a flexible regime-switching mechanism to nearest-neighbour models. Attention is given to a sub-class of TAR-NN models, namely self-exciting threshold autoregressive nearest-neighbour models (SETAR-NN), for uses in claims reserving. The (strict) stationarity and geometric ergodicity of the SETAR-NN model, and more generally, a two-dimensional nonlinear autoregressive random field, are discussed. The conditional least-square (CLS) method is used to estimate the SETAR-NN model and some of its nested models. Simulation studies on the parameter estimates from the CLS method are conducted. Using real insurance claims data and stochastic simulations, the applications of the SETAR-NN model and the nested models for projecting future claims liabilities are discussed. Comparisons of those models with the Bootstrap-Chain-Ladder (BCL) model for claims reserving are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 180-208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76818551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aurore Archimbaud , Feriel Boulfani , Xavier Gendre , Klaus Nordhausen , Anne Ruiz-Gazen , Joni Virta
{"title":"ICS for multivariate functional anomaly detection with applications to predictive maintenance and quality control","authors":"Aurore Archimbaud , Feriel Boulfani , Xavier Gendre , Klaus Nordhausen , Anne Ruiz-Gazen , Joni Virta","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Multivariate functional anomaly detection has received a large amount of attention recently. Accounting both the time dimension and the correlations between variables is challenging due to the existence of different types of outliers and the dimension of the data. In the context of </span>predictive maintenance<span> and quality control<span>, data sets often contain a large number of functional variables. However, most of the existing methods focus on a small number of functional variables. Moreover, in fields that have high reliability standards, detecting a small number of potential multivariate functional outliers with as few false positives as possible is crucial. In such a context, the adaptation of the Invariant Coordinate Selection (ICS) method from the multivariate to the multivariate functional case is of particular interest. Two extensions of ICS are proposed: point-wise and global. For both methods, the choice of the relevant components together with outlier identification and interpretation are discussed. A comparison is made on a predictive maintenance example from the avionics field and a quality control example from the microelectronics field. It appears that in such a context, point-wise and global ICS with a small number of selected components can be recommended.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 282-303"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82405360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 336-337"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"33 ","pages":"Pages 334-335"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jan Pablo Burgard, Joscha Krause, Domingo Morales, Anna-Lena Wölwer
{"title":"Empirical best predictors under multivariate Fay-Herriot models and their numerical approximation","authors":"Jan Pablo Burgard, Joscha Krause, Domingo Morales, Anna-Lena Wölwer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.09.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"Small area estimation of multivariable non-linear domain indicators using aggregated data is addressed. By assuming that the target vector follows a multivariate Fay-Herriot model, empirical best predictors of domain parameters that are arbitrary Lebesgue-measurable functions of multiple target variables are derived. In this context, Monte Carlo and Gauss-Hermite quadrature methods for integral approximation are discussed. A parametric bootstrap algorithm for mean squared error estimation is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to study the behaviour of the introduced methodology. Moreover, an illustrative application to real data from the Spanish labour force survey is provided. In this example, province-level unemployment rates, crossed by age classes and sex, are estimated.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142250941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nikoleta Anesti, Eleni Kalamara, George Kapetanios
{"title":"Forecasting with Machine Learning methods and multiple large datasets[formula omitted]","authors":"Nikoleta Anesti, Eleni Kalamara, George Kapetanios","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"The usefulness of machine learning techniques for forecasting macroeconomic variables using multiple large datasets is considered. The predictive content of surveys is compared with text-based indicators from newspaper articles and a standard macroeconomic dataset, extending the evidence on the contribution of each dataset in predicting economic activity. Among the linear models, the Ridge regression and the Partial Least Squares models report the largest gains consistently for most of the forecasting horizons, and among the non linear machine learning models, Support Vector Regression performs better at shorter horizons compared to the Neural Networks and Random Forest that yield more accurate forecasts up to two years ahead. Text based indicators have similar informational content to surveys, albeit combining the two datasets provides with more accurate forecasts for most of the forecast horizons. The largest forecasting gains are overwhelmingly concentrated at the shorter horizons for the majority of models and datasets and they decrease significantly after one year. Non-linear machine learning models appear to be mostly useful during the Great Financial Crisis and perform similarly to their linear counterparts in more normal periods.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christos K. Papadimitriou, Simos G. Meintanis, Bernardo B. Andrade, Mike G. Tsionas
{"title":"Specification tests for normal/gamma and stable/gamma stochastic frontier models based on empirical transforms","authors":"Christos K. Papadimitriou, Simos G. Meintanis, Bernardo B. Andrade, Mike G. Tsionas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"Goodness–of–fit tests for the distribution of the composed error term in a Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) are suggested. The focus is on the case of a normal/gamma SFM and the heavy–tailed stable/gamma SFM. In the first case the moment generating function is used as tool while in the latter case the characteristic function of the error term is employed. In both cases our test statistics are formulated as weighted integrals of properly standardized data. The new normal/gamma test is consistent, and is shown to have an intrinsic relation to moment–based tests. The finite–sample behavior of resampling versions of both tests is investigated by Monte Carlo simulation, while several real–data applications are also included.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142250987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}