{"title":"Rejoinder to the comment of Agostinelli","authors":"Jakob Raymaekers, Peter J. Rousseeuw","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shared Differential Clustering across Single-cell RNA Sequencing Datasets with the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process","authors":"Jinlu Liu, Sara Wade, Natalia Bochkina","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is a powerful technology that allows researchers to understand gene expression patterns at the single-cell level and uncover the heterogeneous nature of cells. Clustering is an important tool in scRNA-seq analysis to discover groups of cells with similar gene expression patterns and identify potential cell types. Integration of multiple scRNA-seq datasets is a pressing challenge, and in this direction, a novel model is developed to extend clustering methods to appropriately combine inference across multiple datasets. The model simultaneously addresses normalization to deal with the inherent noise and uncertainty in scRNA-seq, infers cell types, and integrates multiple datasets for shared clustering in principled manner through a hierarchical Bayesian framework. A Gibbs sampler is developed that copes with the high-dimensionality of scRNA-seq through consensus clustering. The methodological developments are driven by experimental data from embryonic cells, with the aim of understanding the role of PAX6 in prenatal development, and more specifically how cell-subtypes and their proportions change when knocking out this factor.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139920378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multivariate Hermite polynomials and information matrix tests","authors":"Dante Amengual, Gabriele Fiorentini, Enrique Sentana","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The information matrix test for a normal random vector is shown to coincide with the sum of the moment tests for all third- and fourth-order multivariate Hermite polynomials. The statistic is decomposed as the sum of the marginal information matrix test for a subvector, the conditional information matrix test for the complementary subvector, and a third leftover component. It is also shown that exact finite sample distributions can be obtained by drawing spherical Gaussian vectors and orthogonalising them using sample moments. These tests are applied to assess the implications of Gibrat’s law for US city sizes using the three most recent censuses.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"164 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139771937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cluster Regularization via a Hierarchical Feature Regression","authors":"Johann Pfitzinger","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The hierarchical feature regression (HFR) is a novel graph-based regularized regression estimator, which mobilizes insights from the domains of machine learning and graph theory to estimate robust parameters for a linear regression. The estimator constructs a supervised feature graph that decomposes parameters along its edges, adjusting first for common variation and successively incorporating idiosyncratic patterns into the fitting process. The graph structure has the effect of shrinking parameters towards group targets, where the extent of shrinkage is governed by a hyperparameter, and group compositions as well as shrinkage targets are determined endogenously. The method offers rich resources for the visual exploration of the latent effect structure in the data, and demonstrates good predictive accuracy and versatility when compared to a panel of commonly used regularization techniques across a range of empirical and simulated regression tasks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"2020 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139517665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inference on Multiple Change Points in High Dimensional Linear Regression Models","authors":"Hongjin Zhang, Abhishek Kaul","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Confidence intervals are constructed for multiple change points in high-dimensional linear regression models. Locally refitted estimators are developed, and their rate of convergence is evaluated. The componentwise rate of estimation obtained is optimal, and the simultaneous rate is the sharpest available in the literature. Limiting distributions of the considered estimates are provided in both vanishing and non-vanishing jump size regimes, along with the joint limiting distributions. The relationship between the distributions in the two regimes is further examined, and an adaptation property is illustrated to allow for inference without knowledge of the underlying regime. Theoretical results are supported by Monte Carlo simulations and further demonstrated by a real data example.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"213 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139517994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Highly irregular serial correlation tests","authors":"Dante Amengual, Xinyue Bei, Enrique Sentana","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2024.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tests are developed for neglected serial correlation when the information matrix is repeatedly singular under the null hypothesis. Specifically, consideration is given to white noise against a multiplicative seasonal <span>Ar</span> model, and a local-level model against a nesting <span>Ucarima</span>one. The proposed tests, which involve higher-order derivatives, are asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio test but only require estimation under the null. It is shown that the tests effectively check that certain autocorrelations of the observations are zero, so their asymptotic distribution is standard. Monte Carlo exercises examine finite sample size and power properties, with comparisons made to alternative approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139411045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christina Erlwein-Sayer, Stefanie Grimm, Alexander Pieper, Rümeysa Alsaç
{"title":"Forecasting corporate credit spreads: regime-switching in LSTM","authors":"Christina Erlwein-Sayer, Stefanie Grimm, Alexander Pieper, Rümeysa Alsaç","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.12.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A long short-term memory model (LSTM) which utilises regime-switching state information as a feature to predict the change of credit spreads is developed. Latent changes in the market are filtered out from observable credit spread time series. These hidden information of regime changes are incorporated into an LSTM, where the state probability is utilised as a feature for one-step ahead predictions of the credit spreads. Firstly, time series from corporate credit spreads are modelled through a Hidden Markov model (HMM) which is based on a discretised Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. State-related information of the Markov chain, like the jump frequency and state occupation time hidden in the observed spreads are filtered out and adaptive HMM filters are built to estimate probabilities of hidden market states. The performance of the LSTM with regime-switching information is analysed and compared to the accuracy of a pure LSTM without state features. Furthermore, purely utilising the HMM forecast, the prediction of the credit spread is compared to the prediction within the LSTM. Beyond a simulations study, the HMM-LSTM model is calibrated on corporate credit spreads from three European countries between 2004 and 2019. The findings show that the LSTM forecast error is improved when regime information is added, mostly in cases with stronger market fluctuations.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139062651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muhammad Qasim, Kristofer Månsson, Pär Sjölander, B. M. Golam Kibria
{"title":"Stein-type control function maximum likelihood estimator for the probit model in the presence of endogeneity","authors":"Muhammad Qasim, Kristofer Månsson, Pär Sjölander, B. M. Golam Kibria","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A Stein-type control function maximum likelihood (CFML) estimator is suggested for the probit model in the presence of endogeneity. This novel estimator combines the probit maximum likelihood and CFML estimators. The asymptotic distribution and risk function for the new estimator is derived. It is demonstrated that, subject to certain conditions of the shrinkage parameter, the asymptotic risk of the new estimator is strictly smaller than the risk of the CFML. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the method's superiority in finite samples. The method is also applied to analyze the impact of managerial incentives on the use of foreign-exchange derivatives.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138565753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Large Sample Properties of Entropy Balancing Estimators of Average Causal Effects","authors":"David Källberg, Ingeborg Waernbaum","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Weighting methods are used in observational studies to adjust for covariate imbalances between treatment and control groups. Entropy balancing (EB) is an alternative to inverse probability weighting with an estimated propensity score. The EB weights are constructed to satisfy balance constraints and optimized towards stability. Large sample properties of EB estimators of the average causal treatment effect, based on the Kullback-Leibler and quadratic Rényi relative entropies, are described. Additionally, estimators of their asymptotic variances are proposed. Even though the objective of EB is to reduce model dependence, the estimators are generally not consistent unless implicit parametric assumptions for the propensity score or conditional outcomes are met. The finite sample properties of the estimators are investigated through a simulation study. The average causal effect of smoking on blood lead levels is estimated using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.</p>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"63 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138526119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Dynamic Spatiotemporal Stochastic Volatility Model with an Application to Environmental Risks","authors":"Philipp Otto, Osman Doğan, Süleyman Taşpınar","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"A dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model is introduced, incorporating explicit terms accounting for spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Alongside these features, the model encompasses time-invariant site-specific factors, allowing for differentiation in volatility levels across locations. The statistical properties of an outcome variable within this model framework are examined, revealing the induction of spatial dependence in the outcome variable. Additionally, a Bayesian estimation procedure employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, complemented by a suitable data transformation, is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed Bayesian estimator. Subsequently, the model is applied in the domain of environmental risk modeling, addressing the scarcity of empirical studies in this field. The significance of climate variation studies is emphasized, illustrated by an analysis of local air quality in Northern Italy during 2021, which underscores pronounced spatial and temporal clusters and increased uncertainties/risks during the winter season compared to the summer season.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"5 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135564688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}