Sergi Jiménez-Martín, José M. Labeaga, Majid al Sadoon
{"title":"Consistent estimation of panel data sample selection models","authors":"Sergi Jiménez-Martín, José M. Labeaga, Majid al Sadoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"The properties of classical panel data estimators including fixed effect, first-differences, random effects, and generalized method of moments-instrumental variables estimators in both static as well as dynamic panel data models are investigated under sample selection. The correlation of the unobserved errors is shown not to be sufficient for the inconsistency of these estimators. A necessary condition for this to arise is the presence of common (and/or non-independent) non-deterministic covariates in the selection and outcome equations. When both equations do not have covariates in common and independent of each other, the fixed effects, and random effects estimators in static models with exogenous covariates are consistent. Furthermore, the first-differenced generalized method of moments estimator uncorrected for sample selection as well as the instrumental variables estimator uncorrected for sample selection are both consistent for autoregressive models even with endogenous covariates. The same results hold when both equations have no covariates in common but are correlated once we account for such correlation. Under the same circumstances, the system generalized method of moments estimator adding more moments from the levels equation has moderate bias. Alternatively, when both equations have common covariates the appropriate correction method is suggested. Serial correlation of the errors being a key determinant for that choice. The finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are evaluated using a Monte Carlo study. Two empirical illustrations are provided.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"46 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136103382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robust Clustering with Normal Mixture Models: A Pseudo β-Likelihood Approach","authors":"Soumya Chakraborty, Ayanendranath Basu, Abhik Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"As in other estimation scenarios, likelihood based estimation in the normal mixture set-up is highly non-robust against model misspecification and presence of outliers (apart from being an ill-posed optimization problem). A robust alternative to the ordinary likelihood approach for this estimation problem is proposed which performs simultaneous estimation and data clustering and leads to subsequent anomaly detection. To invoke robustness, the methodology based on the minimization of the density power divergence (or alternatively, the maximization of the β-likelihood) is utilized under suitable constraints. An iteratively reweighted least squares approach has been followed in order to compute the proposed estimators for the component means (or equivalently cluster centers) and component dispersion matrices which leads to simultaneous data clustering. Some exploratory techniques are also suggested for anomaly detection, a problem of great importance in the domain of statistics and machine learning. The proposed method is validated with simulation studies under different set-ups; it performs competitively or better compared to the popular existing methods like K-medoids, TCLUST, trimmed K-means and MCLUST, especially when the mixture components (i.e., the clusters) share regions with significant overlap or outlying clusters exist with small but non-negligible weights (particularly in higher dimensions). Two real datasets are also used to illustrate the performance of the newly proposed method in comparison with others along with an application in image processing. The proposed method detects the clusters with lower misclassification rates and successfully points out the outlying (anomalous) observations from these datasets.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"49 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135410228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels","authors":"Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, Ron P. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"Using a transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model due to Bewley, a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics is proposed. The PB estimator is directly comparable to the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations show good small sample performance of PB compared to the existing estimators in the literature, namely PMG, panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS), and panel fully-modified OLS (FMOLS). Application of two bias-correction methods and a bootstrapping of critical values to conduct inference robust to cross-sectional dependence of errors are also considered. The utility of the PB estimator is illustrated in an empirical application to the aggregate consumption function.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"49 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135411092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Networks in risk spillovers: A multivariate GARCH perspective","authors":"Monica Billio , Massimiliano Caporin , Lorenzo Frattarolo , Loriana Pelizzon","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2020.12.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2020.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>A spatiotemporal approach is proposed for modeling risk spillovers using time-varying proximity matrices based on observable financial networks and a new bilateral Multivariate </span>GARCH specification is introduced. The covariance </span>stationarity<span><span> and identification of the model is studied, developing the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator and analysing its consistency and asymptotic normality. Further, it is shown how to isolate risk channels and it is discussed how to compute target exposure in order to reduce the system variance. An empirical analysis on Euro-area sovereign </span>credit default swap data indicates that Italy and Ireland are key players in spreading risk, France and Portugal are major risk receivers, and Spain’s non-trivial role as a risk middleman is uncovered.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"28 ","pages":"Pages 1-29"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecosta.2020.12.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bayesian Analysis of ARCH-M model with a dynamic latent variable","authors":"Zefang Song , Xinyuan Song , Yuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.10.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A time-varying coefficient ARCH-in-mean (ARCH-M) model with a dynamic latent variable that follows an AR process<span> is considered. The joint model extends the existing ARCH-M model by considering a dynamic structure of latent variable for examining a latent effect on the time-varying risk–return relationship. A Bayesian<span> approach coped with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to perform the joint estimation of model parameters and the latent variable. Simulation results show that the proposed inference procedure performs satisfactorily. An application of the proposed method to a financial study of the Chinese stock market is presented.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"28 ","pages":"Pages 47-62"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matteo Borrotti , Francesco Sambo , Kalliopi Mylona
{"title":"Multi-objective optimisation of split-plot designs","authors":"Matteo Borrotti , Francesco Sambo , Kalliopi Mylona","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.04.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Modern experiments allow scientists to tackle scientific problems of increasing complexity. Often experiments are characterised by factors that have levels which are harder to set than others. A possible solution is the use of a split-plot design. Many solutions are available in the literature to find optimal designs that focus solely on optimising a single criterion. Multi-criteria approaches have been developed to overcome the limitations of the one-objective optimisation, however they mainly focus on estimating the precision of the fixed factor effects, ignoring the variance component estimation. The Multi-Stratum Two-Phase Local Search (MS-TPLS) algorithm for multi-objective optimisation of designs of experiments is extended, in order to ensure pure-error estimation of the variance components. The proposed solution is applied to two motivating problems and the final optimal Pareto front and related designs are compared with other designs from the relevant literature. Experimental results show that the designs from the obtained Pareto front represent good candidate solutions based on the different objectives.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"28 ","pages":"Pages 163-172"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Factor-augmented Bayesian treatment effects models for panel outcomes","authors":"Helga Wagner , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Liana Jacobi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.04.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A new, flexible model for inference of the effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome observed over subsequent time periods is proposed. The model allows to separate the associations due to endogeneity under treatment selection and additional longitudinal association of the outcomes, thus yielding unbiased estimates of dynamic treatment effects if both sources of association are present. The performance of the proposed method is investigated on simulated data and employed to re-analyze data on the longitudinal effects of a long maternity leave on mothers’ earnings after their return to the labour market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"28 ","pages":"Pages 63-80"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating the number of common trends in large T and N factor models via canonical correlations analysis","authors":"Massimo Franchi, Iliyan Georgiev, Paolo Paruolo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"Asymptotic results for canonical correlations are derived when the analysis is performed between levels and cumulated levels of N time series of length T, generated by a factor model with s common stochastic trends. For T→∞ and fixed N and s, the largest s squared canonical correlations are shown to converge to a non-degenerate limit distribution while the remaining N−s converge in probability to 0. Furthermore, if s grows at most linearly in N, the largest s squared canonical correlations are shown to converge in probability to 1 as (T,N)seq→∞. This feature allows one to estimate the number of common trends as the integer with largest decrease in adjacent squared canonical correlations. The maximal gap equals 1 in the limit and this criterion is shown to be consistent. A Monte Carlo simulation study illustrates the findings.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"113 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135762528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the consistency of K-sign depth tests","authors":"Kevin Leckey, Mirko Jakubzik, Christine H. Müller","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"The consistency of the so-called K-sign depth tests is considered. These tests are based on the K-sign depth, which originated from the simplicial regression depth, but is easier to compute. The K-sign depth tests use only the signs of residuals and are equivalent to the classical sign test for K=2. However, K-sign depth tests with K≥3 show a much better power than the classical sign tests in simulation studies. This property is attributed to the consistency of these tests for K=3. After deriving a general condition for consistency, it is shown that this condition is in particular satisfied for several relevant hypotheses in polynomial regression models.","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"275 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135762405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Implicit Copulas: An Overview","authors":"Michael Stanley Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.12.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Implicit copulas<span> are the most common copula choice for modeling dependence in high dimensions. This broad class of copulas is introduced and surveyed, including elliptical copulas, skew </span></span><span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span><span> copulas, factor copulas, time series copulas and regression copulas. The common auxiliary representation of implicit copulas is outlined, and how this makes them both scalable and tractable for statistical modeling<span>. Issues such as parameter identification, extended likelihoods for discrete or mixed data, parsimony in high dimensions, and simulation from the copula model are considered. Bayesian<span> approaches to estimate the copula parameters, and predict from an implicit copula model, are outlined. Particular attention is given to implicit copula processes constructed from time series and regression models, which is at the forefront of current research. Two econometric<span> applications—one from macroeconomic time series and the other from financial asset pricing—illustrate the advantages of implicit copula models.</span></span></span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":54125,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics and Statistics","volume":"28 ","pages":"Pages 81-104"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}