Asia-Pacific Financial Markets最新文献

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Optimal Currency Portfolio with Implied Return Distribution in the Mean-Variance Approach 均值-方差法中收益隐含分布的最优货币投资组合
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09414-x
Yuta Hibiki, Takuya Kiriu, Norio Hibiki
{"title":"Optimal Currency Portfolio with Implied Return Distribution in the Mean-Variance Approach","authors":"Yuta Hibiki,&nbsp;Takuya Kiriu,&nbsp;Norio Hibiki","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09414-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09414-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we construct an optimal currency portfolio using the implied return distribution in the mean-variance approach and examine the performance through a backtest. We estimate the implied expected spot return, implied volatility, and implied correlation from currency option price data, and propose a method of constructing a fully forward-looking optimal currency portfolio without historical data. We implement the backtest from January 2006 to October 2020 on a currency portfolio comprising seven currencies (the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar) against the US dollar and US-dollar interest rate, and examine the usefulness of the proposed method. We find that the proposed method yields a higher performance than the conventional method in previous studies that use historical data. Furthermore, it is evidenced that the main factor in the performance gap between the proposed and the conventional methods is the high predictive power of the spot return.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"251 - 283"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45432671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Third-Party Financial Products on the Consumer Loan Services Market in the Banking Sector: An Analysis of Sales Progress and Consumer Behavior 第三方金融产品对银行业消费贷款服务市场的影响:销售进度与消费者行为分析
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09419-6
Narendra Singh Ranawat, Ayon Chakraborty
{"title":"The Impact of Third-Party Financial Products on the Consumer Loan Services Market in the Banking Sector: An Analysis of Sales Progress and Consumer Behavior","authors":"Narendra Singh Ranawat,&nbsp;Ayon Chakraborty","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09419-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09419-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Certain predominant Banks astride across India stayed esoterically stable while graphing nascent opportunities in retail banking sectors to intensify their financial values. And concomitantly, Money lending facilities i.e., Consumer Loan services are one of those offerings which are supposed to meet the customer’s needs and requirements. But due to a lack of proper ‘customer education’, customers are made to purchase third-party financial products like mutual funds or insurance policies as mandatory at the time of disbursement of loans by the bank officials, which results in financial losses to the customers. The study is carried out to explore various loan facilities provided by major banks so that customers can avail of the loan facilities as per their requirements. We have studied and surveyed all consumer loan services available, and on the basis of certain parameters such as Interest Rates, Equated Monthly Installment (EMI), Processing Fee, Pre- Payment Charges, Charges for Late Payments of EMI, Cheques/ Electronic Clearing Service (ECS) Return Charges, Mandate Life Insurance Policies, etc. The study concluded that customers should be exposed to all types of terms and conditions regarding third-party financial products at the time of loan disbursement so that every customer can be protected from mis-selling third-party financial products. Therefore, this study will enhance the literature towards’ customer education’ and will spread awareness of certain terms and conditions to the customer at the time of disbursement of loans in their account.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"367 - 387"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43042657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting of Crude Oil Prices Using Wavelet Decomposition Based Denoising with ARMA Model 基于小波分解的ARMA模型去噪原油价格预测
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09418-7
Prabhat Mittal
{"title":"Forecasting of Crude Oil Prices Using Wavelet Decomposition Based Denoising with ARMA Model","authors":"Prabhat Mittal","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09418-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09418-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The uncertainty caused by high volatile crude oil prices and the higher level of deregulations worldwide has significant effects on the economic growth of a country. The financial markets of many developing countries experienced a severe downturn during the oil price shocks in March-April 2020. Traditional predictive approaches, which assume linearity and stationarity of time series in the long run, fail to accurately capture short-term fluctuations. This paper presents an efficient algorithm based on ARMA denoising and taking advantage of the wavelet transformation. By decomposing the time series and extracting the intricate underlying structure, wavelet denoising minimizes distortions and enhances forecasting accuracy. The results demonstrate a substantial improvement in performance compared to conventional forecasting techniques.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"355 - 365"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42584127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fund Characteristics, Managerial Skills and Performance Persistence: Evidence from India 基金特征、管理技能和业绩持续性:来自印度的证据
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-07-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09417-8
Sudipta Majumdar, Rohan Kumar Mishra, Abhijeet Chandra
{"title":"Fund Characteristics, Managerial Skills and Performance Persistence: Evidence from India","authors":"Sudipta Majumdar,&nbsp;Rohan Kumar Mishra,&nbsp;Abhijeet Chandra","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09417-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09417-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the relationship of fund managers’ performance persistence with (a) personal characteristics of managers and (b) fund characteristics. The study uses a sample of fund managers from India to create a comprehensive dataset of manager returns from December 2006 to March 2022. Using the four factor performance model of Carhart (1997), we investigate the persistence in manager performance across (a) managerial characteristics and (b) fund characteristics based on one month holding period returns over previous 24-months estimation period. The study indicates considerable persistence among the top decile fund managers who are male, MBA-postgraduate, undergraduate with technical qualifications, and also from top institutions. It is also evident among managers who are old, and possess long experience. We also find evidence of persistence in the performance of managers from foreign funds, Indian funds, and also for the joint venture predominantly Indian funds. This study allows investors in mutual funds to make more informed decisions. It is also useful for recruiters and policymakers who are responsible for appointing mutual fund managers and making policy recommendations in light of continuing regulatory changes. This can be considered one of the earliest studies to analyse the relationship of fund managers performance persistence with (a) personal characteristics of managers and (b) fund characteristics from the perspective of an emerging Indian economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"335 - 354"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43348026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance Attributes of Environmental, Social, and Governance Exchange-Traded Funds 环境、社会和治理交易所交易基金的绩效属性
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-07-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09416-9
Hasan F. Baklaci, William I-Wei Cheng, Jianing Zhang
{"title":"Performance Attributes of Environmental, Social, and Governance Exchange-Traded Funds","authors":"Hasan F. Baklaci,&nbsp;William I-Wei Cheng,&nbsp;Jianing Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09416-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09416-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recently, interest in socially responsible investing has grown, including new investment vehicles such as environmental, social, and governance exchange-traded funds (ESG ETFs). Despite their rising popularity, few studies have attempted to examine the performance characteristics of these stylized funds. This study aimed to fill this knowledge gap by elaborating on the performance attributes of ESG ETFs and examining fund managers’ security selection and market timing skills. Our results suggest that these funds generally underperform relative to conventional ETFs in many aspects. Additionally, the market timing skills of fund managers require improvement but are comparable to those of conventional ETFs. These results are robust to selecting the individual funds and alternative indices used in the sample. Furthermore, both the security selection and market timing skills of ESG ETF managers deteriorated significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the results indicate a slightly weaker cointegrated relationship between ESG ETFs and their benchmark indices when compared to conventional ETFs, suggesting that potential investors in ESG ETFs should carefully inspect the funds to make informed decisions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"307 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47264764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Covid-19 Data Manipulation and Reaction of Stock Markets Covid-19数据操纵与股市反应
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09409-8
Monika Bolek, Cezary Bolek
{"title":"Covid-19 Data Manipulation and Reaction of Stock Markets","authors":"Monika Bolek,&nbsp;Cezary Bolek","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09409-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09409-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The influence of Covid-19 pandemic crisis on rates of return is analyzed in this paper in the light of possible data manipulation related to reporting systems provided by the administration in the USA, Turkey and Poland. The study used various methods of analyzing the relationship of a discrete, non-discrete and dichotomous data nature between the studied variables. As a result, the strongest reaction of the market was observed in Turkey followed by the USA and Poland. It can be concluded that the reaction of the surveyed markets was influenced by the data manipulations. The added value of the article is related to the use of various methods to study phenomena and detect the impact of data manipulation on the markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 1","pages":"137 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10690-023-09409-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42431137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decomposing the Momentum in the Japanese Stock Market 分解日本股市的动量
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09413-y
Yasuhiro Iwanaga, Takehide Hirose, Tomohiro Yoshida
{"title":"Decomposing the Momentum in the Japanese Stock Market","authors":"Yasuhiro Iwanaga,&nbsp;Takehide Hirose,&nbsp;Tomohiro Yoshida","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09413-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09413-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we decompose momentum indicators for the Japanese stock market into two components, high-to-price and price-to-high. High-to-price has a lower downside risk and higher Sharpe ratio than price-to-high. We find that a conventional momentum strategy combines the characteristics of high-to-price in a bull market and those of price-to-high in a bear market. In particular, the large drawdowns of momentum strategies reported in previous studies seem to be largely owed to those of price-to-high in bear markets. It is possible that the mechanism generating factor returns differs among the three strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"221 - 250"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135139833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A CNN-LSTM Stock Prediction Model Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization 基于遗传算法优化的CNN-LSTM股票预测模型
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09412-z
Heon Baek
{"title":"A CNN-LSTM Stock Prediction Model Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization","authors":"Heon Baek","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09412-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09412-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Predicting the stock market remains a difficult field because of its inherent volatility. With the development of artificial intelligence, research using deep learning for stock price prediction is increasing, but the importance of applying a prediction system consisting of preparing verified data and selecting an optimal feature set is lacking. Accordingly, this study proposes a GA optimization-based deep learning technique (CNN-LSTM) that predicts the next day's closing price based on an artificial intelligence model to more accurately predict future stock values. In this study, CNN extracts features related to stock price prediction, and LSTM reflects the long-term history process of input time series data. Basic stock price data and technical indicator data for the last 20 days prepare a data set to predict the next day's closing price, and then a CNN-LSTM hybrid model is set. In order to apply the optimal parameters of this model, GA was used in combination. The Korea Stock Index (KOSPI) data was selected for model evaluation. Experimental results showed that GA-based CNN-LSTM has higher prediction accuracy than single CNN, LSTM models, and CNN-LSTM model. This study helps investors and policy makers who want to use stock price fluctuations as more accurate predictive data using deep learning models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 2","pages":"205 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46877738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Volatility Connectedness and Spillover during Pandemic Induced-Crises: Evidence from BRICS Countries 大流行引发危机期间汇率和股价波动的连通性和溢出效应:来自金砖国家的证据
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0
Muntazir Hussain, Usman Bashir, Ramiz Ur Rehman
{"title":"Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Volatility Connectedness and Spillover during Pandemic Induced-Crises: Evidence from BRICS Countries","authors":"Muntazir Hussain,&nbsp;Usman Bashir,&nbsp;Ramiz Ur Rehman","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigated exchange rate and stock price volatility connectedness and spillover in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) during pandemic-induced crises. We first extracted volatility using the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Then volatility connectedness and spillover were investigated by using (Diebold and Yilmaz, <i>International Journal of Forecasting, 28</i>(1), 57–66, 2012) method. We find that exchange rate volatility and stock return volatilities are connected during pandemic-induced crises. The study also finds volatilities spillover among countries in the sample. Russia has strong volatility connectedness with India in these financial markets. The direction of volatility spillover is from Russia to India. Similarly, Brazil has strong volatility connectedness with South Africa and the direction volatility spillover is from Brazil to South Africa. Finally, China has a weak volatility connection with the remaining BRICS countries. Thus, the volatility transfer in these financial markets and across BRICS countries has economic implications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 1","pages":"183 - 203"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47083988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility 经济政策不确定性与新兴股市波动
IF 2.5
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09410-1
Maria Ghani, Usman Ghani
{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility","authors":"Maria Ghani,&nbsp;Usman Ghani","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09410-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-023-09410-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"31 1","pages":"165 - 181"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42842849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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