Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand最新文献

{"title":"Human Health Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance in New Zealand: The Current State and Future Direction.","authors":"Julianna Lees, Andrea McNeill, Kristin Dyet, Sarah Bakker, Juliet Elvy, Mandy Sexton, Hilary Miller, Jing Wang, David Winter, Jackie Wright, Ernest Williams, Shevaun Paine, Elena Cremm, Meghna Ramchandani, Isabelle Pattis, Zuyu Yang, Rhys White, David Murdoch","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70086","DOIUrl":"10.1002/snz2.70086","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Human health antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance in New Zealand has demonstrated substantial value in detecting, monitoring and responding to emerging threats. AMR is an escalating global problem and strengthening surveillance systems will be critical for ensuring New Zealand remains equipped to address this growing threat. This paper provides an overview of the current human health AMR surveillance system in New Zealand, describing its structure, data sources and key components. Using selected case studies, we demonstrate the value of integrated laboratory, epidemiological and genomic data in detecting emerging threats, monitoring trends and informing public health and clinical responses. We also highlight work underway to strengthen AMR surveillance in New Zealand including improvements to data standardisation, laboratory information systems and national coordination, alongside increasing engagement with international surveillance initiatives. Finally, we highlight the need to progress toward a more integrated AMR surveillance approach that incorporates human, animal and environmental surveillance to better respond to AMR.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 5","pages":"e70086"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13667798/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149198707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the Prediction of Diabetes-Cancer Comorbidity Based on Dietary Factors Explained by Seven Machine Learning Algorithms and SHapley Additive exPlanations.","authors":"Youcheng Yang, Bin Fang","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70088","DOIUrl":"10.1002/snz2.70088","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Background:</b> The bidirectional link between diabetes and cancer is well established, but the role of dietary factors in predicting their comorbidity remains unclear. This study aims to develop a machine learning model to integrate dietary components and to identify key predictors using SHAP analysis. <b>Methods:</b> Data were derived from the NHANES 2009-2012 and 2015-2018 cycles, including 20,307 participants (682 with diabetes-cancer comorbidity). After eliminating collinearity and standardizing, 41 dietary features were retained. Seven algorithms-Naive Bayes, support vector machine with radial basis kernel and class weights (SVM-RW), random forest (RF), weighted k-nearest neighbors (weighted k-NN), AdaBoost, LogitBoost, and cancerclass-were trained and evaluated by benchmark tests using AUC-ROC and AUC-PR. The best-performing model was interpreted with SHAP values. <b>Results:</b> AdaBoost achieved the highest discrimination, with AUC-ROC of 0.898 and AUC-PR of 0.851. SHAP analysis revealed that vitamins (D, K, A, C, thiamin, total folate, niacin, and β-carotene), minerals (calcium, iron, sodium, and copper), and carbohydrates/dietary fiber were the most influential features. Among these, carbohydrates and calcium exerted the dominant negative contribution to comorbidity prediction, indicating that higher intake was associated with a lower predicted probability of diabetes-cancer comorbidity by the model. <b>Conclusions:</b> The AdaBoost model exhibited the best performance for predicting diabetes-cancer comorbidity. Dietary components played an important role in disease prediction, among which carbohydrates and calcium served as core negative predictive factors. The identified associations provide clues and evidence for further research on dietary interventions for high-risk populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 5","pages":"e70088"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13667801/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149198093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Cost of Self-Sufficiency: Could New Zealand be Self-Sufficient in Food Consumption?","authors":"R W McDowell, N W Smith, C Eason, C Smith","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70083","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Ensuring that New Zealand can sustainably meet its future food needs requires an understanding of the interaction between domestic demand trends, trade and the capacity of national production systems. Although New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy, meat, fruit and other primary products, rising food insecurity, changing dietary preferences and increasing exposure to geopolitical and climate-related shocks have renewed interest in the resilience of domestic food supply. Using national consumption data (2010-2023) and production and yield data (2000-2024), we assessed temporal trends across OECD-FAO food groups and projected consumption and production to 2045. We then quantified land requirements needed to meet projected demand and compared these with the availability of highly and moderately suitable land, alongside a regional economic assessment of land-use change. Results showed that New Zealand production exceeded domestic demand for most food groups, with projected deficits concentrated in cereals and legumes, nuts and seeds, and smaller shortfalls in fruits. Much of the projected cereal deficit was associated with animal feed demand rather than direct human consumption. The land and economic costs of addressing domestic shortfalls were small, suggesting that land availability is unlikely to constrain future domestic food production or any moves to greater self-sufficiency. Instead, maintaining food security may depend more strongly on processing infrastructure, storage and distribution networks, market incentives and equitable access to nutritious foods. Although the direct impact of changes in domestic production on food security is limited compared to demand-side issues, there are potential changes to production, processing and distribution that would improve resilience to external shocks to the food system.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 5","pages":"e70083"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13653447/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149168492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Lockdowns to Red Lights: Behavioural Shifts and Structural Breaks in Electricity Demand in New Zealand.","authors":"Mingjing Dong, Le Wen, Mingyue Selena Sheng, Yayu Gao, Daniel Sloot, Kristin Limbach, Wolf Fichtner","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70082","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement containment measures, disrupting economic activity and electricity demand. In New Zealand, two key policy frameworks-the Alert System and the COVID-19 Protection Framework (Traffic Lights)-were introduced over nearly 3 years. This study applies an augmented ARMA model, supplemented by descriptive analysis and cumulative sum tests, to estimate stage-specific associations between containment settings and changes in national electricity demand from 28 February 2021 to 31 July 2023. The ARMA estimates indicate that Alert Level 1 was associated with a 3% increase in electricity demand and the Red Light phase with a 2.5% decline. The two estimates were statistically significant at the 5% and 10% levels, respectively, whereas coefficients for the remaining containment stages were not statistically significant. Cumulative sum tests provided evidence of structural breaks during Alert Level 1 and the Orange Light phase. The study also documents a downward trend following the removal of containment measures and shifts in daily and weekly usage patterns, offering insights for electricity demand management, infrastructure planning and energy policy under future disruptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 5","pages":"e70082"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13626151/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149122482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Antimicrobial Resistance Under a Changing Climate.","authors":"Annette Bolton, Isabelle Pattis, Sarah Nelson, Louise Weaver, Angela Baschieri, Ethan Williams","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70084","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The landscape of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is changing across the animal, human and environmental ecosphere, with both climate change and AMR recognised as leading threats to human health. In this viewpoint, we argue that climate change is likely to reshape the conditions under which AMR emerges, persists and spreads, with important implications for how risks are understood and managed in Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). These risks arise because climate-related exposures interact with existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity across human, animal and environmental systems. Addressing AMR under climate change requires long-term, transdisciplinary planning that integrates surveillance, infrastructure resilience, emissions reduction and protection of human, animal and environmental systems. We highlight the need for a One Health lens to understand transmission pathways across human, animal and environmental systems, situated within a broader Planetary Health perspective that recognises AMR as part of interconnected challenges of climate change, including pollution and biodiversity loss. Therefore, embedding AMR within climate adaptation health planning is essential to strengthen resilience and reduce future public and environmental health risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 5","pages":"e70084"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13624532/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149122423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to \"Analytical Ultracentrifugation in Aotearoa: A Brief History of the Technique and its Place Among Other Tools Used to Investigate Biomolecular Interactions\".","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70077","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1002/snz2.70063.].</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 4","pages":"e70077"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13496298/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148804444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Māori Data Sovereignty: A Decade of Research, Practice and Policy.","authors":"Lara M Greaves, Logan Hamley, Nicole Edwards","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70076","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Māori Data Sovereignty (MDSov) movement advocates for Māori rights and interests in data and works to ensure that Māori data supports Māori aspirations. The language of MDSov has now been used for a decade, as conceptualised in Aotearoa by Te Mana Raraunga, the Māori data sovereignty network and globally through the Global Indigenous Data Alliance. To mark this decade, this special issue takes stock of developments within MDSov and how researchers have implemented these principles in diverse disciplines and science. In this review, we take stock of the movement, reflecting on its constitutional and historical underpinnings, and how Te Mana Raraunga came to exist. We then describe the major themes of the special issue: that the concept of MDSov is now well established and is increasingly being applied in frameworks across new issues and subject areas to benefit equity; that hapū and Iwi are implementing these frameworks in useful ways and that technical solutions are an exciting space for further innovation. Finally, we look ahead to the next decade and the challenges (and opportunities) of extending the movement across groups and where it might become appropriation; to artificial intelligence and to evolution in the data ecosystem, such as changes to the census. Taken together, this review shows that MDSov is widely used, with a wide range of researchers implementing its principles, and that it provides methods and ideas to move data and research in Aotearoa New Zealand forward into the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 4","pages":"e70076"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13493121/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148804641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Research, Policy and Practice to Address Antimicrobial Resistance in Aotearoa New Zealand: The NZAMRNet Initiative.","authors":"Ghader Bashiri, Juliet A Gerrard","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70079","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an escalating global challenge with significant implications for human health, agriculture and environmental sustainability in Aotearoa New Zealand. As for many complex 'wicked problems', addressing AMR requires coordinated, transdisciplinary approaches that integrate research, policy and practice; however, current efforts remain fragmented, limiting national impact and readiness to respond to this complex threat. Here, we describe the establishment of the Aotearoa New Zealand Antimicrobial Resistance Network (NZAMRNet), a national collaborative initiative to strengthen coordination across the AMR landscape. NZAMRNet provides an enabling platform to connect researchers, clinicians, industry and policymakers, supporting aligned research activity, knowledge exchange and evidence-informed decision-making. We outline the network's strategic focus and its role in enhancing collaboration, building capability and improving translation into practice and policy. NZAMRNet strengthens national coordination and positions Aotearoa New Zealand to lead integrated regional responses to AMR. NZAMRNet represents an important step toward a more coherent, adaptive and impactful response to AMR.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 4","pages":"e70079"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13489616/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148804731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Theoretically Grounded, Behaviour-Science-Informed Model for Understanding Citizen Biosecurity Reporting.","authors":"Lynette J McLeod, Donald W Hine","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70075","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Citizen reporting of biosecurity threats is an important yet inconsistently practiced element of environmental surveillance. This study examines the behavioural factors shaping reporting in Aotearoa New Zealand by conceptualising reporting as a multi-step process influenced by psychological, social, and structural conditions. Drawing on behavioural science, we apply the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour model alongside audience segmentation to identify barriers and drivers of reporting using a national survey of 957 New Zealand adults. Latent profile analysis identified four distinct behavioural segments-Engaged Reporters, Reluctant Reporters, Willing but Unaware and Disconnected Non-reporters-characterised by differing levels of capability, opportunity and motivation. While public awareness of the importance of biosecurity has grown, personal engagement in surveillance activities remains comparatively limited. These findings suggest that constraints to reporting arise from a combination of informational, motivational and structural factors, which vary across population groups. Rather than prescribing specific interventions, the study provides a behavioural diagnostic that can inform the development of more targeted and context-sensitive engagement strategies. Importantly, the effectiveness of citizen reporting depends not only on individual behaviour but also on the capacity and responsiveness of the systems that receive and act on reports. As such, efforts to enhance reporting should consider both citizen engagement and system-level design. By integrating behavioural theory with audience segmentation, this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of citizen participation in biosecurity and highlights the importance of aligning behavioural insights with practical and institutional considerations. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies and examine how reporting behaviours translate into biosecurity outcomes in real-world contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 4","pages":"e70075"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13476459/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148762934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospects for Complete DNA Barcode Coverage of the New Zealand Insect Fauna.","authors":"Thomas R Buckley, Andrew Dopheide, Darren Ward, Manpreet Dhami","doi":"10.1002/snz2.70078","DOIUrl":"10.1002/snz2.70078","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The accurate identification of insects supports conservation, biosecurity and ecological monitoring. However, morphological identification is constrained by taxonomic complexity, undescribed diversity, and limited expertise. DNA barcoding can alleviate some of these challenges and complement morphological identification, if reference data are comprehensive and reliable. We assessed the taxonomic, geographic and elevational coverage of New Zealand insect DNA barcodes using taxonomic names from the New Zealand Organisms Register, published estimates of undescribed species richness, and DNA barcode metadata. Only 18% of described native and exotic insect species currently have DNA barcodes, with higher coverage for exotic (59%) than native species (12%). DNA barcode coverage varies from complete in several single-species orders to very low in hyperdiverse orders such as Coleoptera (7%) and Diptera (5%), while moderately diverse aquatic orders reach 31%-91% coverage. Low elevation and populated regions are overrepresented in the DNA barcode data, and many species identifications are based on bioinformatic approaches rather than taxonomic or diagnostic expertise. Despite these biases, we propose that a complete national DNA barcode library for described insect species is highly achievable given access to well-curated insect collections and species name databases for tracking progress. Complete DNA barcoding of undescribed species will be more challenging and will require targeting underrepresented taxa, geographic regions and elevations. Sampling will need to incorporate field surveys with bulk specimen collection, environmental DNA, museomic approaches and expert-verified identifications. Completing this library will strengthen New Zealand's regional and national-scale biodiversity monitoring using environmental DNA, with important contributions to biosecurity and conservation outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":520341,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand","volume":"56 4","pages":"e70078"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13476460/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148765884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}