{"title":"ProSocial artificial intelligence as a catalyst for holistic health: a multidimensional approach.","authors":"Cornelia C Walther","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00111-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00111-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622915/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Confirming non-endemicity of podoconiosis in Guatemala and in Idukki District in Kerala (India): a comparison of two approaches potentially suitable for other neglected tropical diseases.","authors":"Hope Simpson, Mei Trueba, Renata Mendizábal-Cabrera, Sobha George, Chitra Tomy, Silpa T Sasi, Aran Kartal, Kebede Deribe, Kottarathil Narayanpillai Parameswara Panicker, Gail Davey","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00104-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00104-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Podoconiosis is an underreported lymphoedema whose distribution is uncertain at global level and within endemic countries. Previous work has identified countries with historical evidence of podoconiosis, but which do not currently report cases. Podoconiosis may persist in these countries or have been eliminated due to socioeconomic development. Here we describe two different approaches used to clarify podoconiosis endemicity status in Guatemala and in Idukki District (Kerala State, India).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Two different epidemiological approaches were used by different research teams, determined by the available resources and contextual factors in the two settings. In Guatemala, where lymphoedema cases are routinely recorded in the health information system, 102 municipalities with suspected cases, historical evidence of podoconiosis, high poverty rates, or environmental suitability for the disease were visited. Active case searches were conducted from July 2016 to October 2018, and suspected cases were clinically examined to confirm or rule out podoconiosis. In Idukki, where lymphoedema cases were not routinely recorded, a population-based prevalence survey for lymphoedema was conducted from September to December 2022, covering 13,664 individuals aged 15 years and older.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Both approaches were effective at clarifying podoconiosis endemicity. In Guatemala, 20 cases with lower limb swelling were investigated. Podoconiosis was ruled out in all cases, and filarial lymphoedema was suspected in three. In Idukki District, 105 cases of lower limb swelling were identified. None was confirmed to have podoconiosis, with post-surgical lymphoedema and hypertension being the most common diagnoses. Active filarial infection was identified in two cases in Idukki District.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>These investigations provide evidence that podoconiosis is currently non-endemic in Guatemala and in Idukki District in India. They also demonstrate that population-based surveys and targeted case searches both provide effective ways to explore disease endemicity in areas where this is uncertain. The most appropriate approach depends on a combination of contextual and research-based factors, including evidence for endemicity, resources available, and geographical, population, and health system factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 ","pages":"75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7616841/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142690338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Navigating the climate-health nexus: linking health data with climate data to advance public health interventions.","authors":"Andreas Vilhelmsson","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00109-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00109-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622918/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Miranda Rouse, Isaac Mphande, Nelson Mwale, Sitalire Kapira, Mphatso Sayenda, Mc Geofrey Mvula, Maria Openshaw, Esnath Kapito, Martha Kutsamba, Daniel Maweu, Ashley Mitchell, Madhavi Dandu, Anna Muller, Alden Hooper Blair, Kimberly Baltzell
{"title":"Exploring the long-term impact of a nurse-midwife mentorship intervention in Neno district, Malawi: a secondary data analysis of maternal and neonatal complications.","authors":"Miranda Rouse, Isaac Mphande, Nelson Mwale, Sitalire Kapira, Mphatso Sayenda, Mc Geofrey Mvula, Maria Openshaw, Esnath Kapito, Martha Kutsamba, Daniel Maweu, Ashley Mitchell, Madhavi Dandu, Anna Muller, Alden Hooper Blair, Kimberly Baltzell","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00107-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00107-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>There is critical need to strengthen the global nursing and midwifery workforce. This is especially true in Malawi where they are the primary providers of obstetric and neonatal care. In Neno district, Malawi, in 2017, we implemented an intensive training and longitudinal bedside mentorship intervention for nurses and midwives. From inception, there was a pre-planned project target completion after 5 years, including a staged handover to local ownership after 3 years. The objective of this study was to assess differences in reported maternal and neonatal complications following project completion and handover to local leadership.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The project was a partnership between an academic institution and local nongovernmental organization. In October 2020, the intervention was handed over and maintained by the local organization with limited support from the academic institution. Data from January 2019 to May 2023 were extracted from the Malawi District Health Information Software 2. Bivariate analyses explored differences in the pre- and post-handover periods for all government-collected, birth-related variables. The \"pre-handover\" period encompassed January 2019 to September 2020 and \"post-handover\" from October 2020 to May 2023. Multivariate linear regression explored outcomes while controlling for health facility.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Data were collected from 10 health facilities in the district and included a total of 23,259 births. Overall, there were few significant changes between periods. Exceptions were in reporting of antepartum hemorrhage (p < 0.01), maternal sepsis (p = 0.01), and manual removal of the placenta (p < 0.01), where we observed decreases in reporting. There was a significant decrease in the reporting of neonatal sepsis (p = 0.01) in the bivariate analysis, which remained only borderline significant in the multivariate model (p = 0.05). Where differences occurred, they were associated with improvements in reported identification of complications and provision of associated emergency care.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Few differences in reported maternal and neonatal complications between the periods suggest positive impact of the intervention was sustained following project handover and transition of activities to local leadership. These findings strengthen support for longitudinal mentorship as a pivotal component for skill retention after training. Transparent partnerships which include pre-determined end points and time for handover of activities to local ownership are crucial components for sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622972/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebecca Dal Pra, Penny O'Brien, Huong X T Nguyen, Joanne Luke, Robyn A Smith, Adrienne Withall, Kylie Radford, Louise M Lavrencic, Rosie Watson, Leon Flicker, Dina Logiudice
{"title":"Culturally safe and ethical biomarker and genomic research with Indigenous peoples-a scoping review.","authors":"Rebecca Dal Pra, Penny O'Brien, Huong X T Nguyen, Joanne Luke, Robyn A Smith, Adrienne Withall, Kylie Radford, Louise M Lavrencic, Rosie Watson, Leon Flicker, Dina Logiudice","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00102-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00102-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Indigenous peoples globally continue to be underrepresented in biomarker, genomic, and biobanking research. The aim of this study was to identify core components of culturally safe and ethical biomarker and genomic research with Indigenous peoples in Australia, Aotearoa/New Zealand, Canada and the USA.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A scoping review with a systematic search strategy was conducted utilising electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Global Health. Key search terms included 'biomarkers' and 'genomics' research involving Indigenous peoples in relation to ethical and legal principles of respect, sovereignty, governance and existing policies. Original research studies published from the year 2000 to the 1st of August 2023 were reviewed in a systematic manner. Components of culturally safe and ethical research processes were identified and synthesised descriptively. The quality of included studies was assessed using an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool through an Indigenous lens.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Seven interrelated research components were identified from seventeen studies as core processes to enhance the cultural safety of biomarker and genomic research. These included building relationships and community engagement, learning, research coordination, logistics, consent, samples and biospecimens, biobank structures and protections and policy. The importance of ensuring self-determination, ownership and decision-making power is emphasised in processes to establish and conduct biomarker and genomic research with Indigenous peoples.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Components that contribute to the cultural safety of biomarker and genomic research processes identified in this scoping review were assembled into a theoretical framework to guide research practice. Further evaluation is required by Indigenous peoples and communities to appropriate and adapt this framework for local use to promote the cultural safety of research processes and minimise barriers to Indigenous peoples' participation in biomarker and genomic research.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622903/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Behaviorally informed digital campaigns and their association with social media engagement and COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Belize.","authors":"Giuliana Daga, Lajos Kossuth, Cynthia Boruchowicz, Florencia Lopez Boo, Natalia Largaespada Beer","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00079-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00079-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Increasing vaccination coverage was key to curbing the COVID-19 pandemic globally. However, lack of trust in the vaccine and fear of side effects in regions like the Caribbean resulted in a low uptake despite enough vaccine supply.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted two correlational analyses and one experiment between five sequential behaviorally informed Facebook campaigns, social media performance outcomes, and district-level vaccination data. First, we ran multivariate linear regression models to estimate the mean differences between the campaigns in (i) social media performance (\"Clicks\" and \"Engagement\") and (ii) COVID-19 vaccination uptake at the district level. \"Clicks\" were measured by the number of people who clicked on the respective Facebook advert and visited the official vaccination site. \"Engagements\" were the number of people interacting with the advert through likes and emojis. Second, we took advantage of the experimental design during one of the campaigns to analyze the differential effect of messages conveying information about the number of people reporting vaccination side effects using words (\"Few\"/ \"Majority) and numbers (\"3 out of 100 \") on social media performance.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The correlational analysis showed that the number of \"Clicks\" and \"Engagement\" was similar among campaigns, except for the campaign focusing on vaccines' effectiveness, which had 14.65 less clicks and 19.52 less engagements per advert (including controls and district-fixed effects) compared to the base \"It's safe\" campaign. Vaccination rates were highest at times coinciding with campaigns focusing on vaccination safety and effectiveness. Our experimental results showed that informational messages related to side effects that were framed using words (\"Majority did not report discomfort\"/ \"Few persons reported discomfort\") were better at generating \"Clicks\" compared to those using numbers (\"3 out of 100 reported discomforts\").</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Facebook adverts highlighting vaccine safety had a similar level of social media performance as other campaigns, except for adverts focusing on vaccine efficacy, which performed worse. Communicating side-effect information with words instead of numbers can expand social media interest in low-uptake regions like the Caribbean. Our results serve as preliminary evidence for public health officials to encourage vaccine uptake in high-hesitancy contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622853/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Ospina-Pinillos, Adam Skinner, Mónica Natalí Sánchez-Nítola, Débora L Shambo-Rodríguez, Alvaro A Navarro-Mancilla, Salvador Camacho, Adriane Martin Hilber, Jose Miguel Uribe-Restrepo, Carlos Gomez-Restrepo, Ian B Hickie, Jo-An Occhipinti
{"title":"Systems modelling and simulation to guide targeted investments to reduce youth suicide and mental health problems in a low-middle-income country.","authors":"Laura Ospina-Pinillos, Adam Skinner, Mónica Natalí Sánchez-Nítola, Débora L Shambo-Rodríguez, Alvaro A Navarro-Mancilla, Salvador Camacho, Adriane Martin Hilber, Jose Miguel Uribe-Restrepo, Carlos Gomez-Restrepo, Ian B Hickie, Jo-An Occhipinti","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00101-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00101-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Despite suicide's public health significance and global mental health awareness, current suicide prevention efforts show limited impact, posing a challenge for low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to develop a dynamic simulation model that could be used to examine the potential effectiveness of alternative interventions for reducing youth mental health problems and suicidal behavior in Bogotá, Colombia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A system dynamics model was designed using a participatory approach involving three workshops conducted in 2021 and 2022. These workshops engaged 78 stakeholders from various health and social sectors to map key mental health outcomes and influential factors affecting them. A model was subsequently developed, tested, and presented to the participants for interactive feedback, guided by a moderator. Simulation analyses were conducted to compare projected mental health outcomes for a range of intervention scenarios with projections for a reference scenario corresponding to business-as-usual.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 6670 suicide attempts and 347 suicides are projected among 7 - 17-year-olds from January 1, 2023, to early 2031 under the business-as-usual scenario. Mental health issues among 12 - 17-year-olds are projected to increase from 18.9% (2023) to 27.8% (2031), and substance use issues from 2.29 to 2.49% over the same period. School-based suicide prevention and gatekeeper training are the most effective strategies, reducing total numbers of suicide attempts and suicides by more than 20% (i.e., compared to business-as-usual). However, discontinuous funding significantly hinders these effective suicide prevention efforts.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Systems modelling is an important tool for understanding where the best strategic financial and political investments lie for improving youth mental health in resource-constrained settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"70"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622891/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Steven Lâm, Sherril Phyllis Masudi, Ha Thi Thanh Nguyen, Delia Grace
{"title":"Preventing mpox at its source: Using food safety and One Health strategies to address bushmeat practices.","authors":"Steven Lâm, Sherril Phyllis Masudi, Ha Thi Thanh Nguyen, Delia Grace","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00100-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00100-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622920/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joanne Yoong, Volker Schnecke, Wichai Aekplakorn, Tushar Bandgar, Jamal Rashad Butt, Jack Garcia Uranga Romano, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Khadgawat, Gary Kilov, Kyoung-Kon Kim, Sang Yeoup Lee, Viswanathan Mohan, Joseph Proietto, Brian Oldfield
{"title":"Population-level impact of weight loss on predicted healthcare spending and the incidence of obesity-related outcomes in the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study.","authors":"Joanne Yoong, Volker Schnecke, Wichai Aekplakorn, Tushar Bandgar, Jamal Rashad Butt, Jack Garcia Uranga Romano, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Khadgawat, Gary Kilov, Kyoung-Kon Kim, Sang Yeoup Lee, Viswanathan Mohan, Joseph Proietto, Brian Oldfield","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00094-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00094-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region includes a significant proportion of the global population currently living with overweight and obesity. This modelling analysis was conducted to quantify the incidence of obesity-related comorbidities and change in obesity-related costs over 10 years with a hypothetical 10% weight loss in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>An epidemiological-economic model was used to describe current prevalence and direct medical costs of ten obesity-related comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes and hypertension, in adults aged 20-69 years living with obesity, and estimate incidence and costs over 10 years. Incidence reduction and the associated savings by 2032 were then estimated for a 10% weight-loss scenario.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The total estimated medical costs for the ten obesity-related comorbidities in 2022 were 2.9, 7.5, 10.2, and 23.3 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively. Costs increase to 6.9, 18.4, 23.5, and 44.3 billion USD in 2032, if insufficient action is taken. A 10% weight reduction would result in estimated savings of 0.3, 1.2, 2.2, and 3.0 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively, in 2032, with cumulative savings over the 10-year period of 1.8, 7.0, 13.0, and 17.4 billion USD. Incidence of comorbidities were estimated to rise less in the weight-loss scenario.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The financial, societal, and health benefits of a substantial but achievable 10% weight loss in adults living with obesity, and the consequences of insufficient action, are pronounced in the APAC region. To achieve sustained weight loss in the real world, policy actions for addressing barriers to obesity management are required.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"68"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622925/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maximilian Marshall, Felix Parker, Lauren M Gardner
{"title":"When are predictions useful? A new method for evaluating epidemic forecasts.","authors":"Maximilian Marshall, Felix Parker, Lauren M Gardner","doi":"10.1186/s44263-024-00098-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-024-00098-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>COVID-19 will not be the last pandemic of the twenty-first century. To better prepare for the next one, it is essential that we make honest appraisals of the utility of different responses to COVID. In this paper, we focus specifically on epidemiologic forecasting. Characterizing forecast efficacy over the history of the pandemic is challenging, especially given its significant spatial, temporal, and contextual variability. In this light, we introduce the Weighted Contextual Interval Score (WCIS), a new method for retrospective interval forecast evaluation.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The central tenet of the WCIS is a direct incorporation of contextual utility into the evaluation. This necessitates a specific characterization of forecast efficacy depending on the use case for predictions, accomplished via defining a utility threshold parameter. This idea is generalized to probabilistic interval-form forecasts, which are the preferred prediction format for epidemiological modeling, as an extension of the existing Weighted Interval Score (WIS).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We apply the WCIS to two forecasting scenarios: facility-level hospitalizations for a single state, and state-level hospitalizations for the whole of the United States. We observe that an appropriately parameterized application of the WCIS captures both the relative quality and the overall frequency of useful forecasts. Since the WCIS represents the utility of predictions using contextual normalization, it is easily comparable across highly variable pandemic scenarios while remaining intuitively representative of the in-situ quality of individual forecasts.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The WCIS provides a pragmatic utility-based characterization of probabilistic predictions. This method is expressly intended to enable practitioners and policymakers who may not have expertise in forecasting but are nevertheless essential partners in epidemic response to use and provide insightful analysis of predictions. We note that the WCIS is intended specifically for retrospective forecast evaluation and should not be used as a minimized penalty in a competitive context as it lacks statistical propriety. Code and data used for our analysis are available at https://github.com/maximilian-marshall/wcis .</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"2 1","pages":"67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622944/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}