{"title":"China’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Are They Complementary or Substitutive?","authors":"P. Sinclair, Lixin Sun","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper develops a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating a banking sector and some unique features of China’s macroeconomic policies to simulate China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. The quantitative results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio (RRR) when the central bank is solely concerned about price stability; second, that the loan-to-value ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the RRR could be used as an instrument for both objectives; third, monetary and macroprudential policies could be either complements or substitutes in China, depending on the choices of instruments for the two policies. Our policy experiments recommend three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. (JEL codes: E52, E61and G18)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48244710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Kindergarten for Free?! Empirical Evidence on the Utilization of Income Tax Deductions for Child Care Expenses","authors":"Lena Calahorrano, Sven Stöwhase","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In most developed countries there exist ample possibilities for individuals to minimize their personal income tax burden by means of tax deductions. The associated revenue losses for the government have been estimated for a variety of tax deductions. However, relatively little is known about the share of eligible taxpayers who actually use these deductions, and, more specifically, about what determines utilization. The present paper tries to shed some light on this question in the context of the tax deductibility of expenses for child care in Germany. Using survey data on actual child care expenses and official tax-return data on deductions for child-care expenses, we derive utilization rates. We also analyze the determinants of utilization among those who filed a tax-return, using a subsample of the tax-return data. Our estimation results show that (potential) tax breaks from utilization are significantly positively correlated with the probability of utilization. Other kinds of deductions are also highly significant, suggesting that knowledge of tax statutes as well as opportunity costs matter. Moreover, we simulate the effects of a policy reform that enhances the generosity of deductions on the utilization rate. Such a reform would substantially increase utilization. Our results indicate that responses in utilization are more important than potential responses in labor supply. (JEL codes: D14, H24, H43).","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49644378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cesifo Economic StudiesPub Date : 2020-12-06eCollection Date: 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa018
Paola Profeta
{"title":"Gender Equality and Public Policy during COVID-19.","authors":"Paola Profeta","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa018","DOIUrl":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The outbreak of COVID-19 has affected men and women worldwide. The gender dimension of COVID-19 has attracted the attention of researchers and policymakers: while women seem to be less severely hit by the virus and are more compliant with the restricting rules imposed to reduce the spread of the contagion, they risk to suffer more the economic consequences of the pandemic, because they are more vulnerable on the labor market and because they are carrying on most of the burden of housework and childcare which increased substantially during the lockdown. Public policies are required to address the emergency and to deal with its gender implications. Anecdotal evidence suggests that women leaders have performed better than men in dealing with the emergency. This paper explores the evidence on the gender dimension of the pandemic under a new perspective proposed by Profeta (2020), focused on the double relationship between gender equality and public policy: on one side, I show which policies can support gender equality in times of COVID-19 and, on the other side, I explore whether women leadership can promote successful measures. While the evidence provided is only suggestive, future studies should assess causal relationships. (JEL codes: J16 and J18).</p>","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"66 4","pages":"365-375"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39121985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Central Bank Governor and Interest Rate Setting by Committee","authors":"Emile van Ommeren, Giulia Piccillo","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article studies the role of central bank governors in monetary policy decisions taken by a committee. To carry out this analysis, we constructed a novel dataset of committee voting behaviour for six OECD countries for up to three decades. Using a range of Taylor rule specifications, we show that a change in governor significantly affects interest rate setting. We also observe systematic differences in interest rate rules based on the political party appointing the governor, with more inflation-averse policies under governors that are appointed by a right-wing political authority. We show the robustness of this result by using a wider dataset (including over 3000 observations from 12 countries). (JEL codes: E02, E5, P16)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48603376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cesifo Economic StudiesPub Date : 2020-12-06eCollection Date: 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa014
Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek, Florian Keller
{"title":"COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms.","authors":"Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek, Florian Keller","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa014","DOIUrl":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa014","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on a survey (7-13 April 2020) we evaluate the reaction of Swiss firms towards the COVID-19 crisis. Firms show little pro-active reactions towards the crisis, but decrease their business activities. The firms in the survey report that the decline in foreign demand is the single most important reason for their deteriorating business situation. Firms that faced a more difficult business situation before the crisis are affected more severely during the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the impact of the Swiss federal loan program (Bundeshilfe) on the business activities. To this end, we develop a stylized theoretical model of financially constrained heterogeneous firms. We find that policy makers face a trade-off between immediate higher unemployment rates and long-term higher public spending. The former arises from a combination of a too strong economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (demand drop) and too low levels of loans provided. Nevertheless, providing (too) high levels of loans to firms creates zombie firms that are going to default in the future leading to an increase in public spending. (JEL codes: D22, D25, D84, and G33).</p>","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":"66 4","pages":"322-364"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7799295/pdf/ifaa014.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39121984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"COVID: Not a Great Equalizer","authors":"V. Galasso","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Coronavirus has been portrayed as the ‘great equalizer’. None seems immune to the virus and to the economic consequences of the lockdown measures imposed to contain its diffusion. We exploit novel data from two real-time surveys to study the early impact on the labor market of the lockdown in Italy—one of the two countries, with China, hit hard and early. We find that low-educated workers, blue collars, and low-income service workers were more likely to have stopped working both 3-week and 6-week after the lockdown. Low-educated workers were less likely to work from home. Blue collars worked more from their regular workplace, but not from home. Low-income service workers were instead less likely to work from the regular workplace. For both blue collars and low-income service workers, the monthly labor income dropped already in March. Some positive adjustments took place between the 3rd and the 6th week from the lockdown: the share of idle workers dropped, as the proportion of individuals working at home and from their regular workplace increased. However, these adjustments benefited mostly highly educated workers and white collars. Overall, low-income individuals faced worse labor market outcomes and suffered higher psychological costs. (JEL codes: J21, I24, and H12)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44093332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tax Reform, Trade Openness and Export Product Diversification in Developing Countries","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifaa011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article considers the effect of tax reform on export product diversification in developing countries, including through the trade openness channel. Tax reform involves the convergence of a developing country's tax structure towards the tax structure of developed countries. The analysis uses a sample of 112 developing countries over the period 1980–2014 and shows that tax reform exerts a positive effect on export product diversification, with least developed countries enjoying a higher positive effect than other countries in the full sample. Furthermore, the higher the degree of trade openness, the greater is the magnitude of the positive effect of tax reform on export product diversification. These outcomes have important policy implications. (JEL codes: H20, O11, O14).","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49146982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}