Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Systematic Review of Health Economic Analyses of Measles and Rubella Immunization Interventions.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Cassie L Odahowski","doi":"10.1111/risa.12331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12331","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Economic analyses for vaccine-preventable diseases provide important insights about the value of prevention. We reviewed the literature to identify all of the peer-reviewed, published economic analyses of interventions related to measles and rubella immunization options to assess the different types of analyses performed and characterize key insights. We searched PubMed, the Science Citation Index, and references from relevant articles for studies in English and found 67 analyses that reported primary data and quantitative estimates of benefit-cost or cost-effectiveness analyses for measles and/or rubella immunization interventions. We removed studies that we characterized as cost-minimization analyses from this sample because they generally provide insights that focused on more optimal strategies to achieve the same health outcome. The 67 analyses we included demonstrate the large economic benefits associated with preventing measles and rubella infections using vaccines and the benefit of combining measles and rubella antigens into a formulation that saves the costs associated with injecting the vaccines separately. Despite the importance of population immunity and dynamic viral transmission, most of the analyses used static models to estimate cases prevented and characterize benefits, although the use of dynamic models continues to increase. Many of the analyses focused on characterizing the most significant adverse outcomes (e.g., mortality for measles, congenital rubella syndrome for rubella) and/or only direct costs, and the most complete analyses present data from high-income countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1297-314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12331","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"32938576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic Review of Measles and Rubella Serology Studies.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Cassie L Odahowski","doi":"10.1111/risa.12430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12430","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Serological tests provide information about individual immunity from historical infection or immunization. Cross-sectional serological studies provide data about the age- and sex-specific immunity levels for individuals in the studied population, and these data can provide a point of comparison for the results of transmission models. In the context of developing an integrated model for measles and rubella transmission, we reviewed the existing measles and rubella literature to identify the results of national serological studies that provided cross-sectional estimates of population immunity at the time of data collection. We systematically searched PubMed, the Science Citation Index, and references we identified from relevant articles published in English. We extracted serological data for comparison to transmission model outputs. For rubella, serological studies of women of child-bearing age provide information about the potential risks of infants born with congenital rubella syndrome. Serological studies also document the loss of maternal antibodies, which occurs at different rates for the different viruses and according to the nature of the induced immunity (i.e., infection or vaccine). The serological evidence remains limited for some areas, with studies from developed countries representing a disproportionate part of the evidence. The collection and review of serological evidence can help program managers identify immunity gaps in the population, which may help them better understand the characteristics of individuals within their populations who may participate in transmission and manage risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1459-86"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12430","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33390887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of Heterogeneity in Childhood Immunization Coverage in Central Florida Using Immunization Registry Data.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Grace E Logan","doi":"10.1111/risa.12424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12424","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite high vaccine coverage in the United States in general, and in the State of Florida specifically, some children miss scheduled vaccines due to health system failures or vaccine refusal by their parents. Recent experiences with outbreaks in the United States suggest that geographic clustering of un(der)vaccinated populations represent a threat to the elimination status of some vaccine-preventable diseases. Immunization registries continue to expand and play an important role in efforts to track vaccine coverage and use. Using nearly 700,000 de-identified immunization records from the Florida Department of Health immunization information system (Florida SHOTS™) for children born during 2003-2014, we explored heterogeneity and potential clustering of un(der)vaccinated children in six counties in central Florida-Brevard, Lake, Orange, Oseola, Polk, and Seminole-that represent a high-risk area for importation due to family tourist attractions in the area. By zip code, we mapped the population density, the percent of children with religious exemptions, the percent of children on track or overdue for each vaccine series without and with exemptions, and the numbers of children with no recorded dose of each vaccine. Overall, we found some heterogeneity in coverage among the counties and zip codes, but relatively consistent and high coverage. We found that some children with an exemption in the system received the vaccines we analyzed, but exemption represents a clear risk factor for un(der)immunization. We identified many challenges associated with using immunization registry data for spatial analysis and potential opportunities to improve registries to better support future analyses.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1418-26"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12424","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33353323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling Measles Transmission in the North American Amish and Options for Outbreak Response.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Kasper H Kisjes","doi":"10.1111/risa.12440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12440","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Measles outbreaks in the United States continue to occur in subpopulations with sufficient numbers of undervaccinated individuals, with a 2014 outbreak in Amish communities in Ohio pushing the annual cases to the highest national number reported in the last 20 years. We adapted an individual-based model developed to explore potential poliovirus transmission in the North American Amish to characterize a 1988 measles outbreak in the Pennsylvania Amish and the 2014 outbreak in the Ohio Amish. We explored the impact of the 2014 outbreak response compared to no or partial response. Measles can spread very rapidly in an underimmunized subpopulation like the North American Amish, with the potential for national spread within a year or so in the absence of outbreak response. Vaccination efforts significantly reduced the transmission of measles and the expected number of cases. Until global eradication, measles importations will continue to pose a threat to clusters of underimmunized individuals in the United States. Aggressive outbreak response efforts in Ohio probably prevented widespread transmission of measles within the entire North American Amish.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1404-17"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12440","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33288034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Costs and Valuation of Health Impacts of Measles and Rubella Risk Management Policies.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Cassie L Odahowski","doi":"10.1111/risa.12459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12459","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>National and global health policymakers require good information about the costs and benefits of their investments in measles and rubella immunization programs. Building on our review of the existing measles and rubella health economics literature, we develop inputs for use in regional and global models of the expected future benefits and costs of vaccination, treatment, surveillance, and other global coordination activities. Given diversity in the world and limited data, we characterize the costs for countries according to the 2013 World Bank income levels using 2013 U.S. dollars (2013$US). We estimate that routine immunization and supplemental immunization activities will cost governments and donors over 2013$US 2.3 billion per year for the foreseeable future, with high-income countries accounting for 55% of the costs, to vaccinate global birth cohorts of approximately 134 million surviving infants and to protect the global population of over 7 billion people. We find significantly higher costs and health consequences of measles or rubella disease than with vaccine use, with the expected disability-adjusted life year (DALY) loss for case of disease generally at least 100 times the loss per vaccine dose. To support estimates of the economic benefits of investments in measles and/or rubella elimination or control, we characterize the probabilities of various sequelae of measles and rubella infections and vaccine adverse events, the DALY inputs for health outcomes, and the associated treatment costs. Managing measles and rubella to achieve the existing and future regional measles and rubella goals and the objectives of the Global Vaccine Action Plan will require an ongoing commitment of financial resources that will prevent adverse health outcomes and save the associated treatment costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1357-82"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12459","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33901451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens","doi":"10.1111/risa.12265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12265","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Managing the dynamics of vaccine supply and demand represents a significant challenge with very high stakes. Insufficient vaccine supplies can necessitate rationing, lead to preventable adverse health outcomes, delay the achievements of elimination or eradication goals, and/or pose reputation risks for public health authorities and/or manufacturers. This article explores the dynamics of global vaccine supply and demand to consider the opportunities to develop and maintain optimal global vaccine stockpiles for universal vaccines, characterized by large global demand (for which we use measles vaccines as an example), and nonuniversal (including new and niche) vaccines (for which we use oral cholera vaccine as an example). We contrast our approach with other vaccine stockpile optimization frameworks previously developed for the United States pediatric vaccine stockpile to address disruptions in supply and global emergency response vaccine stockpiles to provide on-demand vaccines for use in outbreaks. For measles vaccine, we explore the complexity that arises due to different formulations and presentations of vaccines, consideration of rubella, and the context of regional elimination goals. We conclude that global health policy leaders and stakeholders should procure and maintain appropriate global vaccine rotating stocks for measles and rubella vaccine now to support current regional elimination goals, and should probably also do so for other vaccines to help prevent and control endemic or epidemic diseases. This work suggests the need to better model global vaccine supplies to improve efficiency in the vaccine supply chain, ensure adequate supplies to support elimination and eradication initiatives, and support progress toward the goals of the Global Vaccine Action Plan.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1487-509"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12265","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"32573725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson","doi":"10.1111/risa.12637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12637","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1383-403"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12637","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"34559378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic Review of the Manifestations of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in Infants and Characterization of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs).","authors":"Emily A Simons,&nbsp;Susan E Reef,&nbsp;Louis Z Cooper,&nbsp;Laura Zimmerman,&nbsp;Kimberly M Thompson","doi":"10.1111/risa.12263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12263","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) continues to cause disability among unvaccinated populations in countries with no or insufficient rubella vaccine coverage to prevent transmission. We systematically reviewed the literature on birth outcomes associated with CRS to estimate the duration, severity, and frequency of combinations of morbidities. We searched PubMed, the Science Citation Index, and references from relevant articles for studies in English with primary data on the frequency of CRS manifestations for ≥20 cases and identified 65 studies representing 66 study populations that met our inclusion criteria. We abstracted available data on CRS cases with one or more hearing, heart, and/or eye defect following maternal rubella infection during the period of 0-20 weeks since the last menstrual period. We assessed the quality and weight of the available evidence using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Most of the evidence originates from studies in developed countries of cohorts of infants identified with CRS in the 1960s and 1970s, prior to the development of standardized definitions for CRS and widespread use of vaccine. We developed estimates of undiscounted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost per CRS case for countries of different income levels. The estimates ranged from approximately 19 to 39 for high-income countries assuming optimal treatment and from approximately 29 to 39 DALYs lost per CRS case in low- and lower- middle-income countries assuming minimal treatment, with the lower bound based on 2010 general global burden of disease disability weights and the upper bound based on 1990 age-specific and treatment-specific global burden of disease disability weights. Policymakers and analysts should appreciate the significant burden of disability caused by CRS as they evaluate opportunities to manage rubella.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1332-56"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"32578563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heterogeneity: a major factor influencing microbial exposure and risk assessment.","authors":"Armand Maul","doi":"10.1111/risa.12184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12184","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Microbial risk assessment is dependent on several biological and environmental factors that affect both the exposure characteristics to the biological agents and the mechanisms of pathogenicity involved in the pathogen-host relationship. Many exposure assessment studies still focus on the location parameters of the probability distribution representing the concentration of the pathogens and/or toxin. However, the mean or median by themselves are insufficient to evaluate the adverse effects that are associated with a given level of exposure. Therefore, the effects on the risk of disease of a number of factors, including the shape parameters characterizing the distribution patterns of the pathogen in their environment, were investigated. The statistical models, which were developed to provide a better understanding of the factors influencing the risk, highlight the role of heterogeneity and its consequences on the commonly used risk assessment paradigm. Indeed, the heterogeneity characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the pathogen and/or the toxin contained in the water or food consumed is shown to be a major factor that may influence the magnitude of the risk dramatically. In general, the risk diminishes with higher levels of heterogeneity. This scheme is totally inverted in the presence of a threshold in the dose-response relationship, since heterogeneity will then have a tremendous impact, namely, by magnifying the risk when the mean concentration of pathogens is below the threshold. Moreover, the approach of this article may be useful for risk ranking analysis, regarding different exposure conditions, and may also lead to improved water and food quality guidelines. </p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1606-17"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40278909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"You have been framed! How antecedents of information need mediate the effects of risk communication messages.","authors":"T Terpstra,&nbsp;R Zaalberg,&nbsp;J de Boer,&nbsp;W J W Botzen","doi":"10.1111/risa.12181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12181","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web-based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a \"negativity bias.\" Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens' attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism. </p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1506-20"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40280224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}