Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis最新文献

Global chessboard: Analyzing how geopolitical risk shapes renewable energy technology investments. 全球棋盘：分析地缘政治风险如何影响可再生能源技术投资。

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14310

Xin Zheng, Chang Li, Sajid Ali, T. Adebayo

{"title":"Global chessboard: Analyzing how geopolitical risk shapes renewable energy technology investments.","authors":"Xin Zheng, Chang Li, Sajid Ali, T. Adebayo","doi":"10.1111/risa.14310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14310","url":null,"abstract":"The allocation of budgets for renewable energy (RE) technology is significantly influenced by geopolitical risks (GPRs), reflecting the intricate interplay among global political dynamics, social media narratives, and the strategic investment decisions essential for advancing sustainable energy solutions. Against the backdrop of increasing worldwide initiatives to transition to RE sources, it is crucial to understand how GPR affects funding allocations, informing policy decisions, and fostering international collaboration to pursue sustainable energy solutions. Existing work probes the nonlinear effect of GPR on RE technology budgets (RTB) within the top 10 economies characterized by substantial research and development investments in RE (China, USA, Germany, Japan, France, South Korea, India, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Italy). Past research largely focused on panel data techniques to delve the interconnection between GPR and RE technology, overlooking the distinctive characteristics of individual economies. Contrarily, existing investigation implements the \"Quantile-on-Quantile\" tool to explore this association on an economy-particular basis, enhancing the precision of our analysis and offering both a comprehensive global perspective and nuanced perceptions for entire countries. The findings manifest a significant reduction in funding for RE technology associated with GPR across various quantile levels in the chosen economies. The disparities in results spotlight the necessity for policymakers to perform thorough assessments and carry out competent strategies to address the variations in GPR and RTB.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":"6 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140653671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing relative risks of municipal wastewater disposal options for Southeast Florida. 评估佛罗里达州东南部城市废水处理方案的相对风险。

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14301

F. Bloetscher, D. Meeroff, Kelley Conboy, C. Sham, R. Fergen, Richard Gallant, James Hart, T. Shibata, M. E. Tuccillo, J. Englehardt

引用次数: 0

Benchmark dose profiles for bivariate exposures. 双变量暴露的基准剂量曲线。

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14303

Tugba Akkaya Hocagil, Louise M. Ryan, Richard J Cook, Khue-Dung Dang, R. C. Carter, G. Richardson, Nancy L. Day, Claire D Coles, Heather Carmichael Olson, S. Jacobson, Joseph L Jacobson

{"title":"Benchmark dose profiles for bivariate exposures.","authors":"Tugba Akkaya Hocagil, Louise M. Ryan, Richard J Cook, Khue-Dung Dang, R. C. Carter, G. Richardson, Nancy L. Day, Claire D Coles, Heather Carmichael Olson, S. Jacobson, Joseph L Jacobson","doi":"10.1111/risa.14303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14303","url":null,"abstract":"While benchmark dose (BMD) methodology is well-established for settings with a single exposure, these methods cannot easily handle multidimensional exposures with nonlinear effects. We propose a framework for BMD analysis to characterize the joint effect of a two-dimensional exposure on a continuous outcome using a generalized additive model while adjusting for potential confounders via propensity scores. This leads to a dose-response surface which can be summarized in two dimensions by a contour plot in which combinations of exposures leading to the same expected effect are identified. In our motivating study of prenatal alcohol exposure, cognitive deficits in children are found to be associated with both the frequency of drinking as well as the amount of alcohol consumed on each drinking day during pregnancy. The general methodological framework is useful for a broad range of settings, including combinations of environmental stressors, such as chemical mixtures, and in explorations of the impact of dose rate rather than simply cumulative exposure on adverse outcomes.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":"18 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140668250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hit-and-run or hit-and-stay? Unintended effects of a stricter BAC limit. 肇事逃逸还是肇事滞留？更严格的酒精浓度限制的意外影响。

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4714268

Michael T. French, Gulcin Gumus

引用次数: 0

To Blame is Human: A Quantitative Systematic Review of the Relationship Between Outcome Severity of Large-Scale Crises and Attributions of Blame. 责备是人:大规模危机结果严重程度与责备归因关系的定量系统回顾。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-31 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13847

Christine Gilbert

{"title":"To Blame is Human: A Quantitative Systematic Review of the Relationship Between Outcome Severity of Large-Scale Crises and Attributions of Blame.","authors":"Christine Gilbert","doi":"10.1111/risa.13847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13847","url":null,"abstract":"In crisis situations, time is of the essence. Effective messaging to individuals at risk is critical to mitigating the most severe outcomes. Extant crisis communication literature has focused on differentiating crisis types based on perceived blame, particularly in cases of for-profit company malfeasance, but less work has been done to understand how the public makes these types of attributions. This quantitative systematic review investigates the relationship between severity of a large-scale crisis outcome and attributions of blame toward relevant entities. Moderators of interest include the attribution term used with participants (e.g., blame, responsibility), the type of crisis event, and the entity presented as at fault. Overall, a small but significant positive relationship is identified in the majority of studies between severity of a large-scale crisis outcome and attributions of blame. Results suggest that while crisis type and entity to blame are moderators, the attribution term(s) used with participants plays a less significant role. Implications and future directions are considered.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1980-1998"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39830177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A Precautionary Assessment of Systemic Projections and Promises From Sunlight Reflection and Carbon Removal Modeling. 来自阳光反射和碳去除模型的系统预估和承诺的预防性评估。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13565

Sean Low, Matthias Honegger

{"title":"A Precautionary Assessment of Systemic Projections and Promises From Sunlight Reflection and Carbon Removal Modeling.","authors":"Sean Low, Matthias Honegger","doi":"10.1111/risa.13565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13565","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is a paradigmatic example of systemic risk. Recently, proposals for large-scale interventions-carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM)-have started to redefine climate governance strategies. We describe how evolving modeling practices are trending toward optimized and \"best-case\" projections-portraying deployment schemes that create both technically slanted and politically sanitized profiles of risk, as well as ideal objectives for CDR and SRM as mitigation-enhancing, time-buying mechanisms for carbon transitions or vulnerable populations. As promises, stylized and hopeful projections may selectively reinforce industry and political activities built around the inertia of the carbon economy. Some evidence suggests this is the emerging case for certain kinds of CDR, where the prospect of future carbon capture substitutes for present mitigation. Either of these implications are systemic: explorations of climatic futures may entrench certain carbon infrastructures. We point out efforts and recommendations to forestall this trend in the implementation of the Paris Agreement, by creating more stakeholder input and strengthening political realism in modeling and other assessments, as well as through policy guardrails.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1965-1979"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.13565","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38202739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 16

Theory of Systemic Risks: Insights from Physics and Chemistry. 系统性风险理论:来自物理和化学的见解。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13558

Klaus Lucas

引用次数: 1

Agent-based Modeling to Evaluate Human-Environment Interactions in Community Flood Risk Mitigation. 基于agent的模型评估社区洪水风险缓解中人与环境的相互作用。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13854

Yu Han, Liang Mao, Xuqi Chen, Wei Zhai, Zhong-Ren Peng, Pallab Mozumder

{"title":"Agent-based Modeling to Evaluate Human-Environment Interactions in Community Flood Risk Mitigation.","authors":"Yu Han, Liang Mao, Xuqi Chen, Wei Zhai, Zhong-Ren Peng, Pallab Mozumder","doi":"10.1111/risa.13854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13854","url":null,"abstract":"This article deals with household-level flood risk mitigation. We present an agent-based modeling framework to simulate the mechanism of natural hazard and human interactions, to allow evaluation of community flood risk, and to predict various adaptation outcomes. The framework considers each household as an autonomous, yet socially connected, agent. A Beta-Bernoulli Bayesian learning model is first applied to measure changes of agents' risk perceptions in response to stochastic storm surges. Then the risk appraisal behaviors of agents, as a function of willingness-to-pay for flood insurance, are measured. Using Miami-Dade County, Florida as a case study, we simulated four scenarios to evaluate the outcomes of alternative adaptation strategies. Results show that community damage decreases significantly after a few years when agents become cognizant of flood risks. Compared to insurance policies with pre-Flood Insurance Rate Maps subsidies, risk-based insurance policies are more effective in promoting community resilience, but it will decrease motivations to purchase flood insurance, especially for households outside of high-risk areas. We evaluated vital model parameters using a local sensitivity analysis. Simulation results demonstrate the importance of an integrated adaptation strategy in community flood risk management.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2041-2061"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39708652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Baruch Fischhoff: Creating, testing, and communicating theories about risk perception, public preferences, and communication. Baruch Fischhoff:创建、测试和传播关于风险感知、公众偏好和沟通的理论。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13996

Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie

{"title":"Baruch Fischhoff: Creating, testing, and communicating theories about risk perception, public preferences, and communication.","authors":"Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie","doi":"10.1111/risa.13996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13996","url":null,"abstract":"Baruch Fischhoff has vivid memories of his early life in Detroit. His father was born in Budapest and came to the United States in 1922, which was just before the restriction of immigration through the Immigration Act of 1924. His mother was born in Detroit, and her family was from Lithuania. Life was very different for young Jewish children then than it is today. Boys had their bar mitzvah at 13 and went to work, and girls learned to read so that they could manage a household and pray. Baruch was the first person in the family to go to high school. Most of his friends at James Vernor Elementary (named after the ginger ale magnate) came from similar backgrounds. Detroit’s Mumford High was more diverse. Baruch then attended Wayne State University in Detroit, which he characterized as serving a diverse population of students. During the 1960s, Detroit was an exciting place to live in and go to college. In 1960, it had 1.67 million people, fifth most populated in the United States and was the automobile capital of the world. Wayne State was located on Woodward Avenue, which was one of the dozen historical grand avenues of the United States. The city was politically pulsating with local, national, and international issues such as civil rights, nuclear weapons, union organizing (and busting), the Vietnam War, the Holocaust, and the environment. Baruch’s deepest commitment settled on a group (Hashomer Hatzair) that saw kibbutz life as “self-actualization,” with activities and adventures, including the summer camp where he met his wife, Andi. He delivered the keynote address about national education in an April 1965 at a HaShomer HaChadash meeting.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1895-1899"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33519448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives. 不同视角下的系统性风险。

IF 3.8

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2020-12-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13657

Ortwin Renn, Manfred Laubichler, Klaus Lucas, Wolfgang Kröger, Jochen Schanze, Roland W Scholz, Pia-Johanna Schweizer

{"title":"Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives.","authors":"Ortwin Renn, Manfred Laubichler, Klaus Lucas, Wolfgang Kröger, Jochen Schanze, Roland W Scholz, Pia-Johanna Schweizer","doi":"10.1111/risa.13657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13657","url":null,"abstract":"Systemic risks are characterized by high complexity, multiple uncertainties, major ambiguities, and transgressive effects on other systems outside of the system of origin. Due to these characteristics, systemic risks are overextending established risk management and create new, unsolved challenges for policymaking in risk assessment and risk governance. Their negative effects are often pervasive, impacting fields beyond the obvious primary areas of harm. This article addresses these challenges of systemic risks from different disciplinary and sectorial perspectives. It highlights the special contributions of these perspectives and approaches and provides a synthesis for an interdisciplinary understanding of systemic risks and effective governance. The main argument is that understanding systemic risks and providing good governance advice relies on an approach that integrates novel modeling tools from complexity sciences with empirical data from observations, experiments, or simulations and evidence-based insights about social and cultural response patterns revealed by quantitative (e.g., surveys) or qualitative (e.g., participatory appraisals) investigations. Systemic risks cannot be easily characterized by single numerical estimations but can be assessed by using multiple indicators and including several dynamic gradients that can be aggregated into diverse but coherent scenarios. Lastly, governance of systemic risks requires interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral cooperation, a close monitoring system, and the engagement of scientists, regulators, and stakeholders to be effective as well as socially acceptable.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1902-1920"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.13657","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38382983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 49