Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Residential Location and Psychological Distance in Americans' Risk Views and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Zika Virus.","authors":"Branden B Johnson","doi":"10.1111/risa.13184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13184","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Two 2017 experiments with a U.S. national opportunity sample tested effects of location, psychological distance (PD), and exposure to location-related information on Americans' Zika risk views and behavioral intentions. Location-distance from mosquito transmission of the virus in Florida and Texas; residence within states with 100+ Zika infections; residence within potential mosquito vector ranges-had small, inconsistent effects. Hazard proximity weakly enhanced personal risk judgments and concern about Zika transmission locally. It also increased psychological proximity, and intentions of mosquito control, avoiding travel to Zika-infected areas, and practicing safe sex. PD-particularly social and geographical distance, followed by temporal distance, with few effects for uncertainty-modestly and inconsistently decreased risk views and intentions. Exposure to location-related information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website-naming states with 100+ Zika cases; maps of potential mosquito vector habitat-increased risk views and psychological closeness, but not intentions; maps had slightly stronger if inconsistent effects versus prevalence information. Structural equation modeling (SEM) of a location > PD > risk views > intention path explained modest variance in intentions. This varied in degree and kind (e.g., which location measures were significant) across behaviors, and between pre- and postinformation exposure analyses. These results suggest need for both theoretical and measurement advances regarding effects of location and PD on risk views and behavior. PD mediates location effects on risk views. Online background information, like that used here, will not enhance protective behavior without explicitly focused communication and perhaps higher objective risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2561-2579"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.13184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"36457621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction, Natural Factors, and Technological Factors.","authors":"Kjell Hausken","doi":"10.1111/risa.13115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13115","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Four dimensions of the precautionary principle (PP), involving threat, uncertainty, action, and command, are formalized at the level of set theory and the level of individual players and natural and technological factors. Flow and decision diagrams with a feedback loop are developed to open up a new research agenda. The role of strategic interaction and games in the PP is underdeveloped or nonexistent in today's literature. To rectify this deficiency, six kinds of games are identified in the four PP dimensions. The games can be interlinked since player sets can overlap. Characteristics are illustrated. Accounting for strategic interaction, the article illustrates uncertainty in the PP regarding which game is played, which players participate in which game, strategy sets, payoffs, incomplete information, risk attitudes, and bounded rationality. The insurance and lottery games analyzed earlier for the safe minimum standard (SMS) for species extinction are revisited and placed into a broader context illustrating strategic interaction. Uncertainty about payoffs illustrates transformations back and forth between the chicken game, battle of the sexes, assurance game, and prisoner's dilemma.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2055-2072"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.13115","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40539462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From the Editors.","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/risa.13161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13161","url":null,"abstract":"How can and should the risks from nanomaterials be managed? Effective governance of novel risks requires drawing together and using insights and methods from many parts of risk analysis and decision science, including risk assessment, risk communication, design of incentives and institutions, and coordination of many stakeholders and participants with diverse perceptions and concerns. In this issue, Stone et al. propose an ambitious framework for evidence-based, participatory risk governance of nanomaterials using risk assessment and other tools for risk-based decision-making; behavioral decision models for nanomaterial risks; and coordinated legal and regulatory requirements. The proposed framework emphasizes the needs and capabilities of different stakeholders in an effort to assure wide acceptance of resulting recommendations. Management policies for more familiar risks, as well as novel ones, also require review and empirical evaluation if we are to learn from experience how to manage risks most effectively. Bauer et al. consider empirical evidence on how effective restrictions on permissible flight operations for helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) pilots aged 60 or older are in reducing the risks from heart attacks, strokes, or other cardiovascular events among pilots during flights. They find that a one-size-fits-all age-based policy has relatively little value: stable interindividual differences are large enough, and improvements in some risk markers among many pilots near age 60 are significant enough, so that individualized risk assessments for HEMS pilots near age 60 are likely to more effective than a uniform age-based policy.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1319-1320"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2018-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.13161","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40442453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson","doi":"10.1111/risa.12823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12823","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Measles and rubella continue to circulate globally. Complementing Part I of the special issue, this introduction provides a contrast between other global eradication initiatives and the experience with measles and rubella eradication to date. This introduction builds on the syntheses of the literature provided in Part I and it describes the creation and application of a national risk assessment tool and the development of a dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage measles and rubella globally using vaccines. Currently, efforts to eradicate measles and rubella suffer from the lack of a commitment to global eradication by key stakeholders, despite strong evidence that their eradication represents a better health and financial option than continued control.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1041-1051"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12823","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"34966961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From the Editors.","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/risa.12846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12846","url":null,"abstract":"This issue contains Part 2 of a special series of articles on modeling and managing the risk of measles and rubella, the first part of which was published in Risk Analysis in 2016. This special series is introduced by Past President of SRA Kimberly Thompson, who conceived of the special series, solicited the articles, and worked with Area Editor Chuck Haas to bring it to fruition. In her introduction, Kim calls attention to the key tradeoff between the costs of a large push to permanently fix a problem, e.g., by eradicating a disease, and the smaller annual costs of continuing to manage it. For measles and rubella, she concludes that eradication would be more cost effective (as well as more humane) than continued management, although it requires greater coordination, concerted effort, and, hence, political will to accomplish. Due to a publishing error, one of the articles in this special series appeared in last September’s issue of Risk Analysis, which was primarily devoted to risk analysis of air pollution health effects; the full citation for that published article is: Harris JB, Badiane O, Lam E, Nicholson J, Oumar Ba I, Diallo A, Fall A, Masresha BG, Goodson JL. Application of the World Health Organization Programmatic Assessment Tool for risk of measles virus transmission—Lessons learned from a measles outbreak in Senegal. Risk Analysis, 2016; 36:1708–1717. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12431. The article is also available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10. 1111/risa.12431/full.","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1039-1040"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12846","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35180634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The World Health Organization Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool-Romania, 2015.","authors":"Jennifer L Kriss, Aurora Stanescu, Adriana Pistol, Cassandra Butu, James L Goodson","doi":"10.1111/risa.12669","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.12669","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite global improvement in annual measles incidence and mortality since 2000, progress toward elimination goals has slowed. The World Health Organization (WHO) European Region (EUR) established a regional goal for measles and rubella elimination by 2015. Romania is one of 13 EUR countries in which measles remains endemic. To identify barriers to meeting programmatic targets and to aid in prioritizing efforts to strengthen measles elimination strategy implementation, the WHO and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a measles programmatic risk assessment tool that uses routinely collected data to estimate district-level risk scores. The WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool was used to identify high-risk areas in order to guide measles elimination program activities in Romania. Of the 42 districts in Romania, 27 (64%) were categorized as very high or high risk. Many of the very-high-risk districts were clustered in the western part of the country or were clustered around the capital Bucharest in the southeastern part of the country. The overall risk scores in the very-high-risk districts were driven primarily by poor surveillance quality and suboptimal population immunity. The measles risk assessment conducted in Romania was the first assessment to be completed in a European country. Annual assessments using the programmatic risk tool could provide valuable information for immunization program and surveillance staff at the national level and in each district to guide activities to enhance measles elimination efforts, such as strengthening routine immunization services, improving immunization campaign planning, and intensifying surveillance.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1096-1107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9245689/pdf/nihms-1810785.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"34577369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Nima D Badizadegan","doi":"10.1111/risa.12831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12831","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Policy makers responsible for managing measles and rubella immunization programs currently use a wide range of different vaccines formulations and immunization schedules. With endemic measles and rubella transmission interrupted in the region of the Americas, all five other regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) targeting the elimination of measles transmission by 2020, and increasing adoption of rubella vaccine globally, integrated dynamic disease, risk, decision, and economic models can help national, regional, and global health leaders manage measles and rubella population immunity. Despite hundreds of publications describing models for measles or rubella and decades of use of vaccines that contain both antigens (e.g., measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine or MMR), no transmission models for measles and rubella exist to support global policy analyses. We describe the development of a dynamic disease model for measles and rubella transmission, which we apply to 180 WHO member states and three other areas (Puerto Rico, Hong Kong, and Macao) representing >99.5% of the global population in 2013. The model accounts for seasonality, age-heterogeneous mixing, and the potential existence of preferentially mixing undervaccinated subpopulations, which create heterogeneity in immunization coverage that impacts transmission. Using our transmission model with the best available information about routine, supplemental, and outbreak response immunization, we characterize the complex transmission dynamics for measles and rubella historically to compare the results with available incidence and serological data. We show the results from several countries that represent diverse epidemiological situations to demonstrate the performance of the model. The model suggests relatively high measles and rubella control costs of approximately $3 billion annually for vaccination based on 2013 estimates, but still leads to approximately 17 million disability-adjusted life years lost with associated costs for treatment, home care, and productivity loss costs of approximately $4, $3, and $47 billion annually, respectively. Combined with vaccination and other financial cost estimates, our estimates imply that the eradication of measles and rubella could save at least $10 billion per year, even without considering the benefits of preventing lost productivity and potential savings from reductions in vaccination. The model should provide a useful tool for exploring the health and economic outcomes of prospective opportunities to manage measles and rubella. Improving the quality of data available to support decision making and modeling should represent a priority as countries work toward measles and rubella goals.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1109-1131"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12831","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35042757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using the World Health Organization Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment Tool for Monitoring of Supplemental Immunization Activities in the Philippines.","authors":"Maria Joyce U Ducusin, Maricel de Quiroz-Castro, Sigrun Roesel, Luzviminda C Garcia, Dulce Cecilio-Elfa, W William Schluter, James L Goodson, Eugene Lam","doi":"10.1111/risa.12404","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.12404","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In 2012, the World Health Organization Regional Committee for the Western Pacific Region (WPR) reaffirmed its commitment to eliminate measles and urged WPR member states to interrupt endemic measles virus transmission as rapidly as possible. In 2013, a large measles outbreak occurred in the Philippines despite implementation of measles elimination strategies including a nationwide supplemental immunization activity (SIA) in 2011 using measles- and rubella-containing vaccine and targeting children aged nine months to seven years. To prevent future measles outbreaks a new tool was developed to assess district-level risk for measles outbreaks, based on the WPR polio risk assessment tool previously applied in the Philippines. Risk was assessed as a function of combined indicator scores from four data input categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment. On the basis of the overall score, the tool assigned each district a risk category of low, medium, high, or very high. Of the 122 districts and highly urbanized cities in the Philippines, 58 (48%) were classified as high risk or very high risk, including the district of the Metro Manila area and Region 4A where the outbreak began in 2013. Risk assessment results were used to guide the monitoring and supervision during the nationwide SIA conducted in 2014. The initial tool drafted in the Philippines served as a template for development of the global risk assessment tool. Regular annual measles programmatic risk assessments can be used to help plan risk mitigation activities and measure progress toward measles elimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1082-1095"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33284186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization of the Risks of Adverse Outcomes Following Rubella Infection in Pregnancy.","authors":"Kimberly M Thompson,&nbsp;Emily A Simons,&nbsp;Kamran Badizadegan,&nbsp;Susan E Reef,&nbsp;Louis Z Cooper","doi":"10.1111/risa.12264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12264","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Although most infections with the rubella virus result in relatively minor sequelae, rubella infection in early pregnancy may lead to severe adverse outcomes for the fetus. First recognized in 1941, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) can manifest with a diverse range of symptoms, including congenital cataracts, glaucoma, and cardiac defects, as well as hearing and intellectual disability. The gestational age of the fetus at the time of the maternal rubella infection impacts the probability and severity of outcomes, with infection in early pregnancy increasing the risks of spontaneous termination (miscarriage), fetal death (stillbirth), birth defects, and reduced survival for live-born infants. Rubella vaccination continues to change the epidemiology of rubella and CRS globally, but no models currently exist to evaluate the economic benefits of rubella management. This systematic review provides an overall assessment of the weight of the evidence for the outcomes associated with rubella infections in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy. We identified, evaluated, and graded 31 studies (all from developed countries) that reported on the pregnancy outcomes of at least 30 maternal rubella infections. We used the available evidence to estimate the increased risks of spontaneous termination, fetal death, infant death, and CRS as a function of the timing of rubella infection in pregnancy and decisions about induced termination. These data support the characterization of the disability-adjusted life years for outcomes associated with rubella infection in pregnancy. We find significant impacts associated with maternal rubella infections in early pregnancy, which economic analyses will miss if they only focus on live births of CRS cases. Our estimates of fetal loss from increased induced terminations due to maternal rubella infections provide context that may help to explain the relatively low numbers of observed CRS cases per year despite potentially large burdens of disease. Our comprehensive review of the weight of the evidence of all pregnancy outcomes demonstrates the importance of including all outcomes in models that characterize rubella-related disease burdens and costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1315-31"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12264","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"32566110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From the Editors.","authors":"Tony Cox,&nbsp;Karen Lowrie,&nbsp;Charles N Haas","doi":"10.1111/risa.12668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12668","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":517072,"journal":{"name":"Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1287"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/risa.12668","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"34736909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}