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It's not Overcapacity, but a Matter of Global Imbalances 这不是产能过剩，而是全球失衡的问题
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12582
Kai Guo, He Zhu, Fei Yu, Jiajia Zhang
{"title":"It's not Overcapacity, but a Matter of Global Imbalances","authors":"Kai Guo,&nbsp;He Zhu,&nbsp;Fei Yu,&nbsp;Jiajia Zhang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12582","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and major power competition, the US and several Western nations have claimed that China has significant “overcapacity” in manufacturing and have imposed various tariff and nontariff trade measures to shield domestic industries. Using data from publicly listed companies, this study conducted an industry-level analysis of investment and capacity expansion in China's manufacturing sector. We find that the growth in manufacturing investment is currently driven mainly by the “new trio” (electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries), and most enterprises have begun market-oriented clearing. However, the new trio involved in investment and capacity expansion accounts for only a small portion of China's manufacturing sector. The US narrative regarding China's overcapacity is therefore fundamentally misleading. From the perspective of major power dynamics, the essence of the overcapacity narrative lies in China–US trade imbalances, which are, in turn, a consequence of macroeconomic imbalances between the two nations. Insufficient demand in China and excess demand in the US form the underlying impetus behind the trade imbalances.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 2","pages":"138-170"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Post-Bretton Woods System and US External Unsustainability 后布雷顿森林体系与美国外部不可持续性
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12580
Yongding Yu, Bohan Yang
{"title":"The Post-Bretton Woods System and US External Unsustainability","authors":"Yongding Yu,&nbsp;Bohan Yang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The persistent US current account deficit, supported by the post-Bretton Woods system, will continue to worsen the country's net foreign debt position. The net foreign debt-to-GDP ratio, shaped by factors such as the US budget deficit, the gap between private investment and savings, investment income, and GDP growth, will steadily increase as it approaches a critical threshold. Shifts in these factors will push the trajectory of the ratio upward, and foreign investors' willingness to hold US assets will play a pivotal role as the ratio nears its limit. Exceeding this threshold could trigger a balance of payments crisis. Furthermore, the weaponization of the US dollar has significantly eroded its credibility as the cornerstone of the post-Bretton Woods system, raising concerns about the US's ability to sustain its external debt and finance its deficits without precipitating a financial crisis.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 2","pages":"41-64"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can Digital Transformation Reduce the Zombification of Enterprises? 数字化转型能减少企业的僵尸化吗？
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12577
Xiujuan Lan, Zheneng Hu, Chuanhao Wen
{"title":"Can Digital Transformation Reduce the Zombification of Enterprises?","authors":"Xiujuan Lan,&nbsp;Zheneng Hu,&nbsp;Chuanhao Wen","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12577","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Digital transformation stimulates enterprise development but its effects on zombification are uncertain. This study analyzed the effects of digital transformation on de-zombification among A-share listed Chinese companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2009 to 2021 and the mechanisms underlying those effects. The findings indicated that digital transformation facilitated enterprise de-zombification, with a stronger effect observed in state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises, firms in industries with low levels of competition, those with advanced digital transformation, and cities with high levels of government intervention. Further analysis identified improved production efficiency and capital allocation as important factors enabling this process. Enterprises at risk of zombification should prioritize digital transformation as a fundamental strategy for recovery. Governance strategies should be tailored to the specific characteristics of various types of zombie enterprises. The government may consider offering financial or tax incentives to assist these firms in their digital transformation efforts, enabling them to overcome the challenges associated with zombification while enhancing both production efficiency and the efficacy of capital allocation.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 2","pages":"171-208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International Transport Corridors and the Growth of China's Environmental Goods Exports: Evidence from the China–Europe Railway Express 国际运输走廊与中国环境产品出口增长：来自中欧班列的证据
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12578
Chang Song, Yibing Ding, Yingjie Fu, Jingyi Liu
{"title":"International Transport Corridors and the Growth of China's Environmental Goods Exports: Evidence from the China–Europe Railway Express","authors":"Chang Song,&nbsp;Yibing Ding,&nbsp;Yingjie Fu,&nbsp;Jingyi Liu","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12578","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the mechanisms and effects of international transport corridors on the growth of China's environmental goods exports. Using bilateral data between Chinese provinces and their trading partners, this study treats the opening of the China–Europe Railway Express (CRE) as a quasi-experiment and employs a staggered difference-in-differences method for empirical testing. The results show that the opening of the CRE has promoted the growth of China's environmental goods exports. This growth was driven by mechanisms that increased demand in the international market, diversified the export of environmental goods, stimulated environmental innovation, and enhanced China's capacity to supply environmental goods globally. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the trade of environmental goods due to differences in product types, exporting provinces, and importing countries. The findings suggest that the international transport corridors can generate mutual benefits in the trade of environmental goods.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 2","pages":"98-137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143707429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why is China Promoting Economic Globalization? A Leadership Theory of Globalization 中国为什么要推动经济全球化？全球化的领导理论
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12565
Meixin Guo, David Daokui Li, Kun Lang
{"title":"Why is China Promoting Economic Globalization? A Leadership Theory of Globalization","authors":"Meixin Guo,&nbsp;David Daokui Li,&nbsp;Kun Lang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12565","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article proposes a leadership theory of globalization to explain how economic globalization occurs and evolves, and why China wants to take a leading role in globalization. The theory posits that an economy equipped with advanced industrial technology, a substantial domestic market, and robust institutional capacity is more likely to take the lead in driving economic globalization. Technological advantages in high-tech industries position an economy favorably within the global value chains, maximizing its benefits from economic globalization. A large domestic market can entice other countries to agree to open their markets reciprocally. Institutional capacity enables governments to deter opposition to globalization from those disadvantaged by economic opening. This paper presents studies of historical cases of economic globalization and provides a three-stage model of globalization. It argues that China has been gaining on three fronts in recent decades and is therefore willing to promote economic globalization.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"1-35"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Supply Chain Disruption and Import Strategy: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake 供应链中断与进口战略：来自东日本大地震的证据
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12569
Fan Lu, Zhicong Li, Xinrong Cai
{"title":"Supply Chain Disruption and Import Strategy: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake","authors":"Fan Lu,&nbsp;Zhicong Li,&nbsp;Xinrong Cai","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12569","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global supply chain networks foster collaboration but accelerate cross-border risk transmission. This study investigates the effect of the 2011 East Japan earthquake on Chinese firms' import strategies. The findings reveal that the disruption led to a shift toward supply chain concentration, with firms reducing the diversification of import sources. There was a slight increase in the number of countries from which firms sourced imports but import shares became more concentrated, reflecting a reliance on fewer, centralized suppliers. Firms affected by the earthquake prioritized long-term partnerships and sought suppliers in regions with lower natural disaster risks, aiming to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities and reduce switching costs. The findings also show that state-owned enterprises, private firms, and research and development-intensive firms were more inclined to centralize their import sources. This suggests that these firms, leveraging their larger scale, substantial resources, and robust risk management strategies, favored a more concentrated sourcing approach in order to better control their supply chains and ensure stability in the face of global disruptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"132-161"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Spillover Effects of International Co-production in the Chinese Film Industry 国际合拍电影对中国电影产业的溢出效应
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12568
Feng Yu, Ning Li, Jing Yan, Yan Zhang
{"title":"The Spillover Effects of International Co-production in the Chinese Film Industry","authors":"Feng Yu,&nbsp;Ning Li,&nbsp;Jing Yan,&nbsp;Yan Zhang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12568","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the spillover effects of international film co-production using data on films released in the Chinese mainland from 2006 to 2018. The results indicate that local film producers can enhance their product performance by leveraging the expertise and practices of more sophisticated foreign firms during international co-productions. Heterogeneous effects were observed related to budget size, firm size, ownership structure, and cultural distance. These spillover effects can occur through two mechanisms: the demonstration effect (the adoption of more advanced technology) and the labor mobility effect (actors or directors upgrading their skills). An instrumental variable approach is employed to address endogeneity concerns. This study contributes to the spillover effects of international co-production, which has been neglected in the literature. Its empirical findings suggest that engaging in international co-production can potentially boost productivity for firms from developing countries. Host country governments may consider offering preferential policies to promote international co-production as an alternative to foreign direct investment (FDI), thereby fostering positive spillover effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"101-131"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Institutional Investor Cliques Undermine Stock Price Efficiency? 机构投资者集团会破坏股价效率吗？
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12572
Hai Jiang, Shuangyi Chen, Zifeng Wang
{"title":"Do Institutional Investor Cliques Undermine Stock Price Efficiency?","authors":"Hai Jiang,&nbsp;Shuangyi Chen,&nbsp;Zifeng Wang","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the effects of institutional investor cliques on stock price efficiency. Using a community network algorithm, it identifies cliques of institutional investors and finds that they significantly undermined stock price efficiency in China. The robustness of this finding is demonstrated through a range of methodologies, including the substitution of dependent variables, the alteration of estimation methods, the exclusion of data from extreme market periods, and the application of instrumental variables. The role of institutional investor cliques in diminishing market efficiency is attributed to market speculation. The detrimental effect of cliques on efficiency is exacerbated in environments characterized by low stock liquidity, poor information disclosure, and heightened panic among retail investors. However, regulatory interventions, such as inquiry letters, are shown to mitigate these effects and enhance market efficiency. These findings highlight the unexpected ways institutional investor cliques can influence emerging market economies and underscore the critical importance of effective regulation to safeguard market efficiency.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"223-258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Does the Belt and Road Initiative Improve China's Product Export Potential: A Global Value Chain Perspective “一带一路”倡议如何提升中国产品出口潜力：全球价值链视角
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12571
Liang Zhang, Dahai Fu, Chengjun Wu, Yuanyuan Liu, Yanle Xi
{"title":"How Does the Belt and Road Initiative Improve China's Product Export Potential: A Global Value Chain Perspective","authors":"Liang Zhang,&nbsp;Dahai Fu,&nbsp;Chengjun Wu,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Liu,&nbsp;Yanle Xi","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's export potential at the product level. Using country–product-level data from the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives d'Informations Internationales-Base pour l'Analyse du Commerce International (CEPII-BACI), which includes 5,049 product types across 196 economies from 2007 to 2022, it explores the trade effects of the BRI and its mechanisms from the perspective of global value chains. The results indicate that the BRI has increased China's product export potential significantly to participating countires. The BRI has had the greatest impact on capital goods and labor- and capital-intensive industries. The effect has been most pronounced in China's exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Europe. The mechanism analysis reveals that the BRI has improved the division of labor in the global value chains for participating countries along the BRI, strengthened China's position in their output supply chains, and stimulated the growth of China's exports.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"195-222"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can the Environmental Credit Evaluation Policy Alleviate the Overcapacity of Heavily Polluting Enterprises? 环境信用评价政策能否缓解重污染企业产能过剩？
IF 2.9 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12570
Chuanwang Sun, Jiahui Chen
{"title":"Can the Environmental Credit Evaluation Policy Alleviate the Overcapacity of Heavily Polluting Enterprises?","authors":"Chuanwang Sun,&nbsp;Jiahui Chen","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12570","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Addressing pollution caused by economic development, especially the overcapacity of polluting enterprises, is crucial for promoting sustainable economic growth. Targeted environmental policies are essential for strengthening environmental constraints on enterprises and enhancing the effectiveness of regulatory instruments. This study focused on the Environmental Credit Evaluation policy by examining its potential to improve capacity utilization and assessing its broader impact on heavily polluting enterprises. It constructed a time-varying difference-in-difference-in-differences model using panel data from 965 industrial enterprises from 2009 to 2019. The findings reveal that, in comparison with their non-heavily polluting counterparts, heavily polluting enterprises subject to the policy demonstrated significant improvements in capacity utilization. Heavily polluting enterprises that experienced a substantial increase in financing costs also exhibited a marked reduction in inefficient investment, without negatively affecting innovation investments or output.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"33 1","pages":"162-194"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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