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Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation 中国股市对实际产出冲击的反应：VARwAL估计
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12500
Numan Ülkü, Kexing Wu
{"title":"Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation","authors":"Numan Ülkü,&nbsp;Kexing Wu","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12500","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the connection between the stock market and real output in China and compares it with benchmark countries, employing a novel vector autoregression with asymmetric leads (VARwAL) model. It makes two contributions. First, it finds that the time profile of the Chinese stock market's response to real output shocks suggests no evidence of a distorted relationship due to manipulation of Chinese real output data or domination of the Chinese stock market by individual investors. Rather, the Chinese stock market is relatively more responsive to real output, in line with the larger share of manufacturing in the Chinese economy. Electricity output and industrial profits, two different, less-manipulable time series, yield similar results. Second, it presents the first use of VARwAL impulse responses to detect stock market bubbles: VARwAL captures the 2015 bubble in China successfully. Over the full sample period, China's stock market appears to have been less prone to bubbles than the US stock market.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increasing Wages, Factor Substitution, and Cropping Pattern Changes in China 工资增长、要素替代与中国种植方式变化
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12506
Zhoufu Yan, Shurui Zhang, Fangwei Wu, Binlei Gong
{"title":"Increasing Wages, Factor Substitution, and Cropping Pattern Changes in China","authors":"Zhoufu Yan,&nbsp;Shurui Zhang,&nbsp;Fangwei Wu,&nbsp;Binlei Gong","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article analyzed the influence of increasing wages on cropping patterns from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results showed that the increasing labor cost provided a significant incentive to adjust the grain cropping pattern, which increased the production of the three major cereal grains but reduced the production of other grain crops. Increasing wages had a significant negative impact on cash crops. More labor-intensive cash crops experienced a larger negative impact in the context of increasing wages. The increase in labor costs also had a negative impact on the proportion of vegetables produced, which was more evident in northern China. A further mechanism test indicated that factor substitution was a significant reason for cropping pattern changes; this illustrated the substitution of labor by machinery not only between grain crops and cash crops but also among different cash crops.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"190-214"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
E-commerce and Consumption Inequality in China 电子商务与中国的消费不平等
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12502
Zhou Jiang, Maoxia Zeng, Mingming Shi
{"title":"E-commerce and Consumption Inequality in China","authors":"Zhou Jiang,&nbsp;Maoxia Zeng,&nbsp;Mingming Shi","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12502","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Consumption inequality may impede economic development and hinder the achievement of common prosperity. Using three waves of the China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018, this paper investigated the impact of e-commerce on consumption inequality, as measured by the Kakwani index. The results indicate that e-commerce can reduce household consumption inequality. A mechanism analysis shows that e-commerce can narrow household income inequality, increase the purchasing power of low-income households, and promote the consumption of households with limited access to offline markets, thereby reducing the consumption gap. A heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive role of e-commerce in reducing consumption inequality can be more significant among vulnerable households, such as households with elderly members and less-educated households. E-commerce can have varying impacts on consumption inequality across different subcategories of household expenditure, with the greatest impact seen in entertainment and education expenditure. These findings provide new evidence for the role of e-commerce in reducing consumption inequality in the digital economy, and the implications of this are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"61-86"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human Capital Development and Its Influence on FDI Withdrawal: An Empirical Analysis 人力资本发展及其对FDI退出的影响——一个实证分析
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12504
Chuanchuan Li, Lei Li, Haodan Tang, Yanyan Zheng, Fangming Gong
{"title":"Human Capital Development and Its Influence on FDI Withdrawal: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"Chuanchuan Li,&nbsp;Lei Li,&nbsp;Haodan Tang,&nbsp;Yanyan Zheng,&nbsp;Fangming Gong","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12504","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the causal effect of human capital expansion on the exit of foreign-owned firms using the difference-in-differences method together with a quasi-natural experiment involving the expansion of higher education in China in 1999. The expansion of human capital reduces the probability of the exit of foreign-owned firms significantly. This conclusion remains robust under a series of tests, including changing the sample range, adjusting the identification method, and considering the trade liberalization. Analysis of the mechanism indicates that human capital expansion reduces the exit probability of foreign-owned firms by stimulating innovation, improving production efficiency, and optimizing the quality of input and output goods. Industries with higher asset specificity are also more likely to restrain the exit of foreign-owned firms through human capital expansion. Overall, the findings of this study provide a good insight into the exit behavior of FDI in China from the perspective of human capital.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"116-134"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rural E-commerce and County Economic Development in China 农村电子商务与中国县域经济发展
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12501
Qiuxia Qin, Hongdong Guo, Xinjie Shi, Kevin Chen
{"title":"Rural E-commerce and County Economic Development in China","authors":"Qiuxia Qin,&nbsp;Hongdong Guo,&nbsp;Xinjie Shi,&nbsp;Kevin Chen","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12501","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the proliferation of information and communication technology in rural areas, rural e-commerce has gradually become a new economic phenomenon in China. Using the national rural e-commerce comprehensive demonstration policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines the causal linkage between rural e-commerce and county-level economic development in China. Its findings, which draw on county-level panel data from 2011 to 2018, indicate that the policy had a positive effect on the county-level economy in China, resulting in an overall increase in county GDP by 3.5 percent (0.7 percent annually). Our analysis further shows that the impact of the policy differed along the region and human capital dimensions. Further analysis reveals that industrial structure and nonagricultural employment were the main channels for the policy to exert a county-level economic impact. Infrastructure improvement in China also plays an important role. The findings emphasize the importance of advancing e-commerce in rural areas to stimulate county-level economic development.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"26-60"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
State-owned Enterprises in China as Macroeconomic Stabilizers: Their Special Function in Times of Economic Policy Uncertainty 中国国有企业作为宏观经济稳定器在经济政策不确定性时代的特殊作用
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12503
Mingyue Fang, Rui Ruan
{"title":"State-owned Enterprises in China as Macroeconomic Stabilizers: Their Special Function in Times of Economic Policy Uncertainty","authors":"Mingyue Fang,&nbsp;Rui Ruan","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>China has many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades. China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs. This study shows that, in periods of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), SOEs have performed a special function as “macroeconomic stabilizers.” Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019, we investigate five aspects of SOEs' unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers: employment, investment, growth, financial operation, and expectations. When EPU increased, SOEs had more employment, higher investment expenditure, lower performance volatility, more robust financial structures, and more stable expectations than private firms. We employ the US–China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables. The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"87-115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50136315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International Patent Cooperation, Patent Prosecution Highway Agreements, and Export Product Quality 国际专利合作，专利审查高速公路协议，出口产品质量
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12499
Fan Duan, Yifei Li, Tenglong Zhong
{"title":"International Patent Cooperation, Patent Prosecution Highway Agreements, and Export Product Quality","authors":"Fan Duan,&nbsp;Yifei Li,&nbsp;Tenglong Zhong","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12499","DOIUrl":"10.1111/cwe.12499","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates how international cooperation for patent examination using Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) agreements has affected the quality of firms' exports. Taking the PPH agreements signed between China and the export destinations as a quasi-natural experiment, we established a difference-in-difference-in-differences model. We found that international cooperation for patent examination caused firms to increase export quality to PPH partners in patent-intensive industries to a greater extent. This effect was more profound among PPH partners with stronger intellectual property protection, differentiated products and core products, and agreements along with the Patent Cooperation Treaty. We also found that PPH agreements increased the number of Chinese patent applications filed in PPH partners, patent applications by PPH partners in China, and the level of innovation, all of which constitute the major channels through which export quality to PPH partners increases. Our findings demonstrate that international patent cooperation has played an important role in promoting international trade quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 6","pages":"111-133"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135825288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Impact of Chinese Local Government-led Construction Land Supply Strategies on Urban Innovation and its Spatiotemporal Differences 中国地方政府主导的建设用地供应策略对城市创新的影响及其时空差异
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12498
Jian Wang, Shangui Peng, Siqi Yan, Guancheng Guo, Qun Wu
{"title":"Impact of Chinese Local Government-led Construction Land Supply Strategies on Urban Innovation and its Spatiotemporal Differences","authors":"Jian Wang,&nbsp;Shangui Peng,&nbsp;Siqi Yan,&nbsp;Guancheng Guo,&nbsp;Qun Wu","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12498","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of local government-led construction land supply (LGCLS) strategies on urban innovation. It uses data related to 265 cities in China from 2005 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Its conclusions are as follows. For development stage differences, the impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation exhibited an inverted U shape with economic growth. The inflection point occurred when the per capita GDP equaled approximately RMB23,101 in 2008. For regional differences, the inflection point in eastern China is higher and earlier than that in central and western China; before the inflection point, the positive influence was more obvious in the central and western regions, whereas after the inflection point, the negative influence was more obvious in the eastern region. For the eastern Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations and the northwestern resource-based urban agglomerations with relatively high per capita GDP, the negative impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation occurred earlier and showed spatial agglomeration characteristics.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 5","pages":"161-189"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50139579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tax Incentives and Maturity Mismatch between Investment and Financing: Evidence from China 税收优惠与投融资期限错配：来自中国的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12492
Qianbin Feng, Lexin Zhao, Mingxue Xu
{"title":"Tax Incentives and Maturity Mismatch between Investment and Financing: Evidence from China","authors":"Qianbin Feng,&nbsp;Lexin Zhao,&nbsp;Mingxue Xu","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12492","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the effects of China's accelerated depreciation policy (ADP) on the maturity mismatch between investment and financing. Using panel data for China's A-share nonfinancial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we found the following. First, ADP significantly aggravated the degree of corporate maturity mismatch, and this result was robust across multiple checks. Second, due to an insufficient long-term loan supply, firms had to finance the fixed investments induced by ADP with short-term debts, leading to maturity mismatches. Third, the positive policy effects were mainly significant for firms with high policy exposure, high-risk preferences, a high degree of information asymmetry, and firms with weak long-term financing capacity. Finally, maturity mismatch exacerbated corporate financial risks. Our research findings indicate that passive maturity mismatch is prevalent among Chinese companies and emphasize the need to address financial repression in order to mitigate the potential financial risks that may arise from tax incentives.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 4","pages":"1-36"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50131633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Educational Investment for Future Marriage? Evidence of Missing Girls from China 未来婚姻的教育投资？中国女孩失踪的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
China & World Economy Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12496
Yawen Cheng, Dongmin Kong
{"title":"Educational Investment for Future Marriage? Evidence of Missing Girls from China","authors":"Yawen Cheng,&nbsp;Dongmin Kong","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12496","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Numerous studies have shown that a sex ratio imbalance (more boys than girls in a society) may result in a sequence of social problems. This study investigated the expected effect of a high sex ratio on educational investment. Using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies and the 2010 Census, we determined the following: (i) a high sex ratio increased educational expenditure for boys relative to girls; (ii) parents who took education seriously and who cared about their children's education were more likely to invest in education to appear attractive in the future marriage market, and (iii) the profound impact of a high sex ratio on educational expenditure was more pronounced in less educated and poorer families. Our findings raised the possibility that the effect of the sex ratio may bring about more gender inequality in the future. The implicit cost of a high sex ratio may further lead to a vicious cycle of family fertility and childbearing.</p>","PeriodicalId":51603,"journal":{"name":"China & World Economy","volume":"31 4","pages":"173-199"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50131676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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