Survival最新文献

{"title":"A Fragile Convergence: The US–Japan–South Korea Camp David Summit","authors":"Robert Ward","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2261241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2261241","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThe US–Japan–South Korea summit was historic, not least because it was the first stand-alone summit between the three countries. The severe deterioration in the security environment in East Asia, in particular China’s menacing of Taiwan and North Korea’s continued nuclear-weapons programme, has been a significant driver of the recent rapprochement between Japan and South Korea. The warming of bilateral ties thus helps to buttress the United States’ separate, formal security alliances between Japan on the one hand and South Korea on the other. But previous thaws have failed, reflecting lingering differences between Japan and South Korea in areas such as their shared history and territorial claims. This convergence is therefore a fragile one.Key words: Camp David SummitChina‘comfort women’East China SeaIndo-PacificJapanKishida FumioKorean PeninsulaPhnom Penh StatementSouth KoreaYoon Suk-yeol Notes1 US Embassy and Consulates in Japan, ‘Trilateral Leaders’ Summit of the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea’, 19 August 2023, https://jp.usembassy.gov/trilateral-leaders-summit-us-japan-south-korea/#:~:text=President%20Biden%20welcomed%20Japanese%20Prime,David%20during%20the%20Biden%2DHarris.2 Victor D. Cha, ‘Bridging the Gap: The Strategic Context of the 1965 Korea– Japan Normalization Treaty’, Korean Studies, vol. 20, 1996, p. 125.3 White House, ‘Phnom Penh Statement on US–Japan–Republic of Korea Trilateral Partnership for the Indo-Pacific’, 13 November 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/13/phnom-penh-statement-on-trilateral-partnership-for-the-indo-pacific/.4 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, ‘Japan–ROK Summit Telephone Call’, 28 December 2015, https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/na/kr/page4e_000366.html.5 White House, ‘The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States’, 18 August 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/18/the-spirit-of-camp-david-joint-statement-of-japan-the-republic-of-korea-and-the-united-states/.6 One early example of this was the ‘Korea clause’ in the November 1969 communiqué between US president Richard Nixon and Japan’s prime minister Sato Eisaku. This was the first public recognition by Japan that South Korea’s security ‘was essential to Japan’s own security’, although support for the clause ebbed and flowed with the Japanese governments that followed. The communiqué came at a time of increased security tensions in Asia against the background of the Vietnam War and the threat of a newly nuclear China. See ‘The Nixon–Sato Communique’, New York Times, 22 November 1969, p. 14, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1969/11/22/issue.html; and Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The US–Korea– Japan Security Triangle (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999), chapter 1.7 Prime Minister’s Office of Japan, ‘Keynote Address by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the IISS Shangri-La Di","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134948836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oppenheimer: The Man, the Movie and Nuclear DreadOppenheimer (American film), Christopher Nolan, director and writer. Distributed by Universal Pictures, 2023.","authors":"Jonathan Stevenson","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2261262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2261262","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractChristopher Nolan’s film Oppenheimer, centred on the eponymous American physicist who steered the Manhattan Project to completion of the first nuclear bomb in 1945, captures scientists reaching their own destructive capability at its most terrible. It prompts viewers to wonder why, over the course of nearly 80 years, Oppenheimer’s nuclear dread hasn’t been embraced with greater alarm, and informed praetorian critiques haven’t been entertained more openly. The short answer is that nuclear deterrence has worked. But the movie comes at a moment when it is being tested. With its spectacular suggestions of nuclear destruction and its intense examination of early anxieties about nuclear weapons that have never been satisfactorily addressed, Oppenheimer prompts a crucial question: whether mutual deterrence, shorn of arms control and regular diplomacy and under the pressure of a major war involving nuclear powers, can still work.Key words: Atomic Energy CommissionJ. Robert OppenheimerManhattan ProjectMcCarthyismmutual assured destruction (MAD)nuclear abolitionnuclear deterrencenuclear peaceOppenheimer Notes1 See Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2005).2 See US Department of Energy, ‘Secretary Granholm Statement on DOE Order Vacating 1954 Atomic Energy Commission Decision in the Matter of J. Robert Oppenheimer’, 16 December 2022, https://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-granholmstatement-doe-order-vacating-1954-atomic-energy-commission-decision; and Barton J. Bernstein, ‘Christopher Nolan’s Forthcoming “Oppenheimer” Movie: A Historian’s Questions, Worries, and Challenges’, Washington Decoded, 11 July 2023, https://www.washingtondecoded.com/site/2023/07/bernstein.html.3 See, for example, Andy Kifer, ‘The Real History Behind Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer”’, Smithsonian Magazine, 18 July 2023, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-real-history-behind-christopher-nolans-oppenheimer-180982529/.4 See Gar Alperovitz, The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb and the Architecture of an American Myth (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995).5 See, for example, Daryl G. Kimball, ‘“Oppenheimer”, the Bomb, and Arms Control, Then and Now’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 29 July 2023, https://thebulletin.org/2023/07/oppenheimer-the-bomb-and-arms-control-then-and-now/.6 Quoted in, for example, Richard Rhodes, ‘Robert Oppenheimer: The Myth and the Mystery’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 18 December 2018, https://thebulletin.org/2018/12/robert-oppenheimer-the-myth-and-the-mystery/.7 ‘General Advisory Committee’s Majority and Minority Reports on Building the H-Bomb: Majority Annex’, 30 October 1949, available from Atomic Archive, https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/hydrogen/gac-report.html#Minority.8 See National Security Council, ‘NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security’, 14 April 1950, https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/nsc-hst/n","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134948825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"War, Conflict and the Military","authors":"Franz-Stefan Gady","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239070","url":null,"abstract":"The Fortress: The Great Siege of Przemyśl Alexander Watson. London: Allen Lane, 2019. £12.99. 368 pp. Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Paul Scharre. New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2023. $32.50. 496 pp. Information in War: Military Innovation, Battle Networks, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence Benjamin M. Jensen, Christopher Whyte and Scott Cuomo. Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2022. $49.95. 252 pp. The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2023. £35.00/$40.00. 549 pp. Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts Brent L. Sterling. Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2021. $39.95. 336 pp.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"9 1","pages":"179 - 187"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82586796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Australia’s Archipelagic Deterrence","authors":"A. Carr","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239058","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review has inaugurated a new era of ‘archipelagic deterrence’. Despite Australia’s often forward-leaning rhetoric, it has turned away from making significant military contributions in Northeast Asia or globally, and instead is building a secure bastion across its northern approaches while inviting the United States to radically expand its military presence on Australian soil. The aim of archipelagic deterrence is to deter and deny China from a coercive maritime presence in the zone from the eastern Indian Ocean, through maritime Southeast Asia and into the South Pacific. It is hoped this will help stabilise the regional balance of power. This new model of alliance cooperation better reflects enduring differences in size and interests between Washington and Canberra, and should provide a stable and effective foundation for the United States’ presence and activity in the southern Indo-Pacific.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"1 1","pages":"79 - 100"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79833399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Wagner Revolt: Implications for Russia, Lessons for the West","authors":"Nigel Gould-Davies","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Wagner Group’s revolt against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, though contained, holds important implications for Russia and lessons for the West. The revolt was a full-scale crisis for the regime, reflected Putin’s extraordinary misreading of domestic realities, undermined his rule’s core rationale of bringing stability and security to Russia, exposed the brittleness of the Russian state, revealed weak support of Russian elites, demonstrated his need for mediation from a despised foreign leader, and brought to the surface the strains that the Russia–Ukraine war has imposed on the Russian polity. The two main takeaways for the West are that Putin chose compromise rather than escalation to deal with the crisis, and that over time the war is likely to impose deeper strains on Russia. It is now less clear than ever not only that Russia can win the war, but also that the regime that launched it will survive intact.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"16 1","pages":"25 - 30"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81680087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Getting China Right","authors":"S. Tsang","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Under Xi Jinping, China puts regime security and a revived ideology, ‘Xi Thought’, at the core of its foreign policy. This distorts how ‘national interest’ is calculated and impedes China from behaving in the way neoclassical realism suggests a rising superpower would behave. Xi adheres to a China-first approach. The United States and its partners could respond more effectively to China’s conduct in three main ways. Firstly, they could stop framing their competition with China as one of democracy versus authoritarianism, as this has limited appeal for the Global South. Secondly, insofar as Xi’s approach is often not conducive to his stated goals for his ‘China dream’, the US could allow him to undermine them himself. Finally, the US could adopt a foreign policy of putting the interests of the global community first, as it effectively did during the Cold War, such that America’s allies would be more willing to support the United States over China in a crisis, and other countries less prone to taking sides against the US.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"21 1","pages":"43 - 54"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80962801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intelligence, Strategy and Governance in the Twenty-first Century","authors":"M. Reiss","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239065","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In Decision Advantage: Intelligence in International Politics from the Spanish Armada to Cyberwar, Jennifer E. Sims seeks to correct popular misconceptions of how espionage operates and rebut the views of those who dismiss its importance in international politics. Examining several well-documented historical cases, she argues that intelligence is widely misunderstood, on the common assumption that it consists of only what intelligence institutions do. With this in mind, she concludes that the proper goal of a government in utilising intelligence should be ‘the orchestration of intelligence in light of the competitive moment’ – ‘orchestration’ being a two-way street where communications pass up and down the chain between decision-makers and intelligence professionals, whom she believes should be encouraged to express strong views. Sims understands that an intelligence community reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the society it represents, and the abilities of the officials appointed to manage it and elected to oversee it. But she remains cautiously optimistic, providing an erudite road map for how ‘decision advantage’ can be realised.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"44 1","pages":"153 - 168"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74061052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"David P. Calleo, 1934–2023","authors":"Dana H. Allin, J. Harper","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The late David P. Calleo was a long-standing contributing editor to Survival and one of the most original and multifaceted scholars of his generation. An American himself, he became known as a critic of US imperial overstretch, arguing that the US hegemonic role threatened the equilibrium of both the world system and the American domestic political economy. Yet his critique embedded a deep appreciation for America’s early post-war engagements, especially in Europe. He believed Europe needed more centralised diplomatic and military structures to cultivate greater strategic autonomy, while the US system of centralised federal hegemony was increasingly dysfunctional – in effect, that Europe needed to become more like America, and America more like Europe. Calleo warned against the pitfalls of the triumphalist ‘unipolar’ world view, including the rapid enlargement of NATO with scant regard for Russian interests.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"14 1","pages":"239 - 244"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87847429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to Think About State Sponsorship of Terrorism","authors":"D. Byman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract States usually support terrorist groups to weaken their rivals, silence their opponents and give themselves options they otherwise lack. By providing weapons, training, a sanctuary and other support, states can make terrorist groups more deadly, increasing their skill and survivability. At the same time, states often impose constraints on their proxies, creating many difficulties for the terrorists. Iran and other enemies of the United States and its allies have long supported terrorists, and state sponsorship is likely to play a role in any continued confrontation with Russia, which may double down on existing ties to extremists given its humiliation in Ukraine and desire for revenge on its enemies. Confronting state sponsors of terrorism is difficult, however. For democracies, applying a ‘state sponsor’ label can be a powerful rhetorical, legal and policy tool. At the same time, it can often be misused, become an empty political gesture or even backfire. The ‘state sponsor’ label is highly politicised, and long-standing sponsors like Pakistan have avoided it. Clarifying what state sponsorship is, increasing the flexibility of the designation, giving policymakers more leeway on when to impose sanctions, and otherwise knowing how to better combat a state sponsor is vital.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"80 11 1","pages":"101 - 122"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87974304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine","authors":"F. Heisbourg","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2233347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2233347","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia has failed to achieve its stated purpose of taking political control of Ukraine, but still appears able to sustain the war at its current level. There is no prospect that the West will recognise de jure the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk or Zaporizhia as part of Russia. Within the West, however, disagreement may arise on the means, pace or conditions of the restoration of full territorial integrity. If Ukraine’s counter-offensive yields meaningful gains, Ukraine and its Western partners might consider a dispensation analogous to the ‘Adenauer option’ whereby the West German chancellor deferred the reunification of Germany and secured strong security guarantees for West Germany through its membership in NATO and integration into Europe’s security architecture. Ukraine would foreswear the use of force to recover Crimea while being fast-tracked into NATO. Russia would remain the de facto occupying power in Crimea and tolerate Ukrainian membership in NATO.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"117 1","pages":"7 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81033391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}