How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract Russia has failed to achieve its stated purpose of taking political control of Ukraine, but still appears able to sustain the war at its current level. There is no prospect that the West will recognise de jure the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk or Zaporizhia as part of Russia. Within the West, however, disagreement may arise on the means, pace or conditions of the restoration of full territorial integrity. If Ukraine’s counter-offensive yields meaningful gains, Ukraine and its Western partners might consider a dispensation analogous to the ‘Adenauer option’ whereby the West German chancellor deferred the reunification of Germany and secured strong security guarantees for West Germany through its membership in NATO and integration into Europe’s security architecture. Ukraine would foreswear the use of force to recover Crimea while being fast-tracked into NATO. Russia would remain the de facto occupying power in Crimea and tolerate Ukrainian membership in NATO.