Economic Inquiry最新文献

{"title":"Predicting voluntary contributions by “revealed-preference Nash-equilibrium”","authors":"Irenaeus Wolff","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13280","url":null,"abstract":"<p>One-shot public-good situations are prominent in the public debate, and a prime example for behavior diverging from the standard Nash-equilibrium. Could a Nash-equilibrium predict one-shot public-good behavior in principle? A “revealed-preference Nash-equilibrium” (<span>rpne</span>) out-of-sample predicts behavior, outperforming other social-preference models. The <span>rpne</span> is the set of “mutual conditional contributions,” interpreting elicited conditional contributions as best-responses. Individual-level analyses confirm the results and allow for studying equilibrium selection. While the Pareto-dominant equilibrium is the modal choice, many participants use other criteria. Given the predictive positive-contributions <span>rpne</span>s, many real-life public-good problems may be solvable if players could coordinate on an equilibrium-selection criterion beforehand.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 3","pages":"846-864"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13280","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the symposium on reproducibility and replicability in economics: Part I","authors":"Farasat A. S. Bokhari,&nbsp;Abel Brodeur,&nbsp;Michalis Drouvelis","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13285","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Reproducibility and replicability are cornerstones of scientific progress, ensuring that findings can withstand scrutiny and that results hold under varied analyses. In economics, these principles support a self-correcting system, fostering more reliable empirical research and more robust foundations for policy design. However, despite the recognition of replication's importance, many empirical studies, particularly non-experimental ones, lack rigorous replication. This symposium of &lt;i&gt;Economic Inquiry&lt;/i&gt; aims to address this gap, presenting new research that underscores the need for reproduction and replication, particularly in non-experimental studies, and proposes innovative approaches to overcoming the practical challenges of replicability in economics. Due to the volume of high-quality submissions we received, we have divided this symposium into two parts. This first part highlights key methodological advances and remaining challenges that contribute to the broader conversation on reproducibility and replicability in economics. A forthcoming second part will continue this exploration, further showcasing reproductions and replications of seminal and well-cited articles.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our call for papers sought empirical replications, methodological advances, and theoretical contributions that enrich our understanding of replication's role in economic research. The selected papers in this first part introduce new methodological tools and provide frameworks for conducting and evaluating the effectiveness of reproductions and replications. These contributions advance our collective understanding of what it means for economics to be a replicable and self-correcting science. We provide a short summary of each article below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The symposium's first article, “A Framework for Evaluating Reproducibility and Replicability in Economics”, proposes a structured approach to assess these core aspects of scientific reliability in economics. By distinguishing between various types of reproducibility (computational, recreate, robustness) and replicability (direct, conceptual), and introducing clear indicators to measure each, the article offers a practical and theoretically grounded framework that addresses long-standing ambiguities in the field. This contribution is particularly significant in the context of increasing efforts to improve transparency and credibility in economics research.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The article “Replication Code Availability Over Time and Across Fields: Evidence From the German Data Archive for Business and Economic Studies” provides trends in replication code availability over time and across disciplines by examining studies that used the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data, which, while restricted, is available to researchers and has been used in over 2500 articles in economics and social sciences. By concentrating on studies with large common data, the study highlights both progress and ongoing challenges in making replication code accessib","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 2","pages":"335-337"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13285","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MPCs of ABCs: The housing wealth effect for affluent boomers with credit","authors":"Niloy Bose,&nbsp;Antu Panini Murshid","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13282","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper combines exogenous variation in house prices with anonymized individual-level expenditures data to identify a causal channel from housing wealth to consumption. We show that the Sandy Hook school shooting provided a large negative exogenous shock to local housing which lowered credit card spending by about 4.2 cents for each $1 fall in house prices: rescaled this translates to an annual marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of about 9 cents on the dollar. These consumption sensitivities are driven entirely by creditworthy middle-aged consumers, with those closest to the retirement threshold reacting the strongest.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 3","pages":"945-960"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The intermittent Phillips curve: Finding a stable (but persistence-dependent) Phillips curve model specification","authors":"Richard Ashley,&nbsp;Randal Verbrugge","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13281","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We make substantial progress on understanding the Phillips curve, yielding important monetary policy implications. Inflation responds differently to persistent versus moderately persistent (or transient) fluctuations in the unemployment gap. This persistence-dependent relationship aligns with business-cycle stages, and is consistent with existing theory. Previous work fails to model this dependence, thereby finding the numerous “inflation puzzles”—for example, missing inflation/disinflation—noted in the literature. Our specification eliminates these puzzles; for example, the Phillips curve has not weakened; inflation's post-2012 slow upward trudge was predictable. The model's coefficients are stable, and it provides accurate out-of-sample conditional recursive forecasts through the Great Recession and recovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 3","pages":"926-944"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Workers' response to monetary incentives in for-profit and non-profit jobs","authors":"Billur Aksoy,&nbsp;Angela C. M. de Oliveira,&nbsp;Catherine Eckel","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13283","url":null,"abstract":"<p>When workers decide how hard to work, they consider not only extrinsic factors (e.g., the salary), but also the type of work and the mission of the organization. We study the relationship between monetary compensation and worker effort in non-profit and for-profit settings using a modified gift-exchange experiment. Contrary to some prior research, we find that having a mission does not reduce the responsiveness of effort to increasing wages. Workers are more responsive to <i>higher</i> wages in a non-profit setting, contributing to our understanding of how the presence of a mission and monetary payments interact in work settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 3","pages":"830-845"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Underpowered studies and exaggerated effects: A replication and re-evaluation of the magnitude of anchoring effects","authors":"Tongzhe Li,&nbsp;Collin Weigel,&nbsp;Paul Ferraro,&nbsp;Kent D. Messer","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13279","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We reconsider one of the most widely studied behavioral biases: anchoring effects. We estimate that study designs in this literature, including replication studies, routinely fail to achieve statistical power of more than 30%. This study replicates an anchoring study that reported an effect size of a 31% increase in participants' bids. In the replication, we increased the design's statistical power from 46% to 96%, reducing the average exaggeration of a statistically significant result by a factor of seven. Our replication results reject the size of the original estimated effects. We find an estimated effect of 3.4% (95% CI [−3.4%, 10%]).</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 2","pages":"387-402"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13279","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-run peer effects and promotion: Evidence from 70-plus years of career records in Japan","authors":"Natsuki Arai,&nbsp;Nobuhiko Nakazawa","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13278","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate long-term peer effects in the workplace by investigating whether working with a future executive makes junior employees more likely to be promoted. Using data on career history at the Japanese central administration from 1946 to 2019, we find that long-term peer effects are substantial and persistent—junior employees who work with a future executive during the first 5 years of their employment are more likely to be promoted to top executive than employees who do not. The empirical results are consistent with the mechanisms of increased human capital, the formation of social connections, and a reduction in information asymmetry.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 3","pages":"740-758"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Idiosyncratic asset return and wage risk of US households","authors":"Stephen Snudden","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13275","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents the degree of idiosyncratic asset return heterogeneity, serial correlation, and correlation with wage heterogeneity for US households. Novel panel-data measurements for returns on household assets are proposed. Sizable transitory idiosyncratic return heterogeneity is documented to exist concurrently with permanent heterogeneity in household-specific returns. On average, idiosyncratic permanent risk to wages and transitory risk to total asset returns are correlated. This arises primarily from correlated wage and return risk to primary housing assets, and is dependent on age and wealth. The estimates inform the covariance structure of idiosyncratic asset return and wage heterogeneity.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 2","pages":"636-657"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13275","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How policing incentives affect crime, measurement, and justice","authors":"Jordan Adamson,&nbsp;Lucas Rentschler","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13270","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper we develop a model where the police choose between investigating and patrolling, while civilians choose between producing and stealing. We derive a truth table for the equilibrium numbers of criminals and producers, punished or not, that can holistically evaluate the effects of police performance incentives. To test the model, we conduct an experiment that varies how severely an officer is reprimanded for false punishments. We find that stronger reprimands do not change crime, increase civilian incomes, and decrease false positives. We also find that the clearance rate, a measure of performance used widely in econometric studies, suggests police performance is better when it is unambiguously worse.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 2","pages":"545-567"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does nature shape risk preferences? Evidence from Chile, Norway, and Tanzania","authors":"Florian Diekert,&nbsp;Robbert-Jan Schaap","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13272","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Does exposure to a more risky environment affect risk preferences? Going beyond single-case study evidence, we report results from five surveys conducted in three countries and link this with administrative data to study whether a link between exposure and preferences is detectable and widespread. We find no evidence for endogenous preferences in Norway and Tanzania, but relatively strong evidence in Chile, where differences in risk exposure are most pronounced. Moreover, we make a first pass at disentangling selection from adaptation as potential mechanisms. For Tanzania and Norway, the data speaks for selection, while it speaks for adaptation in Chile.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 2","pages":"568-590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13272","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}