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Economic Inquiry最新文献

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Tacit collusion by pricing algorithms 定价算法的默契勾结
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70004
Bharat Bhole, Sunita Surana
{"title":"Tacit collusion by pricing algorithms","authors":"Bharat Bhole,&nbsp;Sunita Surana","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70004","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article contributes to the debate about the potential of pricing algorithms to collude and earn supra-competitive profits without explicit communication. By simulating competition among seven algorithms, we demonstrate that: (1) algorithms can reach supra-competitive prices in a reasonably short time, taking less than <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 <mo>/</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 <mo>,</mo>\u0000 <mn>00</mn>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mn>0</mn>\u0000 <mtext>th</mtext>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $1/1,00{0}^{text{th}}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> the time taken by algorithms in recent studies; and (2) tacit collusion among the algorithms is robust to the choice of different algorithms by competing firms. These results address the main criticisms concerning the practical relevance of recent studies that demonstrate algorithmic collusion. The top-performing algorithms possess properties of niceness, forgiveness, provocability, and flexibility.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1036-1065"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145196291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A reappraisal of real-time forecasts of the real price of oil 重新评估对石油实际价格的实时预测
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70009
Eric Benyo, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden
{"title":"A reappraisal of real-time forecasts of the real price of oil","authors":"Eric Benyo,&nbsp;Reinhard Ellwanger,&nbsp;Stephen Snudden","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We replicate Baumeister and Kilian's work done in 2012 to reappraise real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil against the end-of-month no-change forecast, the equivalent naive benchmark used for asset prices. We find no consistently significant improvements in the predictive accuracy of model-based forecasts over this naive benchmark at short horizons. Only futures-based forecasts consistently outperform the end-of-month no-change forecast, and only at longer horizons. These results challenge the consensus on the predictability of the real price of crude oil and the merits of alternative forecast approaches. Our findings motivate broader reassessment and replication of forecasting models of temporally aggregated series.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"64 1","pages":"167-176"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.70009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145964386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Betting on momentum in contests 赌比赛的势头
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70008
Marius Ötting, Christian Deutscher, Carl Singleton, Luca De Angelis
{"title":"Betting on momentum in contests","authors":"Marius Ötting,&nbsp;Christian Deutscher,&nbsp;Carl Singleton,&nbsp;Luca De Angelis","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state-contingent claims by a major bookmaker, second-by-second in-play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a bettor: equalizing goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcomes increases and is substantially biased toward the equalizing team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. These findings illustrate the value of integrating high-frequency price and quantity data to evaluate the efficiency and profitability of betting markets.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1066-1089"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145197210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Linguistic fractionalization, trade, and welfare 语言分馏、贸易和福利
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70003
Tamara Gurevich, Peter R. Herman, Farid Toubal, Yoto V. Yotov
{"title":"Linguistic fractionalization, trade, and welfare","authors":"Tamara Gurevich,&nbsp;Peter R. Herman,&nbsp;Farid Toubal,&nbsp;Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the implications of linguistic fractionalization on trade and welfare, focusing on the United States. Our model identifies the direct and indirect effects of fractionalization on international and domestic trade and welfare. We construct a novel dataset to show that changes in fractionalization impact trade, leading to significant economic consequences. To highlight the general equilibrium implications, we conduct simulations on language policy-induced changes in the shares and the composition of Hispanic speakers within the United States, showing the importance of considering language policies, as they can yield substantial economic benefits but also sizable economic consequences stretching beyond national borders.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1201-1231"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145197059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sentiment shocks, productivity, and long-run growth 情绪冲击、生产率和长期增长
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70006
Mehmet Burak Turgut
{"title":"Sentiment shocks, productivity, and long-run growth","authors":"Mehmet Burak Turgut","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effect of sentiment shocks, changes in confidence unrelated to the fundamentals, on the US economy in the long run. We identify quarterly sentiment shocks using the quarterly averages of monthly sentiment shocks as an instrument in the IV-SVAR framework. We find that output and potential output permanently increase in response to a sentiment shock. The increase in R&amp;D investments is the main transmission channel of sentiment shocks on productivity and long-run economy. The findings imply that the exogenous changes in consumer confidence are not only a measure of expected future productivity growth but also a source of them.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1090-1109"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145197001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Affirmative action and educational attainment of disadvantaged religious minorities: Evidence from India 平权行动与弱势宗教少数群体的受教育程度：来自印度的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70005
Mitul Surana, Rajnish Rai
{"title":"Affirmative action and educational attainment of disadvantaged religious minorities: Evidence from India","authors":"Mitul Surana,&nbsp;Rajnish Rai","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine whether affirmative action incentivizes a disadvantaged religious minority group in India to obtain additional years of education. We study the implementation of quotas in government hiring and university admissions for backward-class Muslims in 2007 in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. Using a difference-in-differences approach that uses variation in exposure to the policy by age-cohort and social group, we find that these quotas increase educational attainment of the targeted population. Investigating the effects by gender, we find statistically significant and robust positive effects on the educational attainment of male members of the targeted Muslim groups, but not females.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1367-1385"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145196970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of the anti-corruption campaign in China: Evidence from housing transactions 中国反腐运动的效果：来自住房交易的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70002
Yongqiang Chu, Weida Kuang, Daxuan Zhao
{"title":"The effect of the anti-corruption campaign in China: Evidence from housing transactions","authors":"Yongqiang Chu,&nbsp;Weida Kuang,&nbsp;Daxuan Zhao","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using price discounts government officials receive when buying new housing units as a measure of corruption in China, we examine the effect of the anti-corruption campaign launched by the Xi Jinping administration in 2012. We find that the discounts decrease sharply after the campaign. On the other hand, we find no effect of the campaign on existing housing sales. Furthermore, officials become less likely to purchase housing units with lucky numbers. Overall, the results suggest that the anti-corruption campaign is effective in curbing corruption.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1232-1251"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145196969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Schumpeterian growth with variable demand elasticity 可变需求弹性的熊彼特增长
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13302
Gilad Sorek
{"title":"Schumpeterian growth with variable demand elasticity","authors":"Gilad Sorek","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13302","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Variable Demand Elasticity preferences are introduced into a canonical two-sector R&amp;D model. The departure from the traditional CES specification yields novel growth dynamics: for a sufficiently high population growth rate, a semi-endogenous balanced growth path (“BGP”) of drastic innovation is characterized, along which economic growth is determined by the population growth rate. However, for a sufficiently low population growth rate, the model economy converges to the limit values of demand elasticity and a fully endogenous growth regime of non-drastic innovation. A few stylized facts undermine the empirical relevance of the semi-endogenous BGP with drastic innovation to developed economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1110-1126"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145196805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mitigating technology gaps' contribution to international income inequality 缓解技术差距对国际收入不平等的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13301
David Angenendt, Franco Mariuzzo, Junjun Zhang
{"title":"Mitigating technology gaps' contribution to international income inequality","authors":"David Angenendt,&nbsp;Franco Mariuzzo,&nbsp;Junjun Zhang","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13301","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This replication study revisits a 2023 analysis by Sampson on the impact of international technology gaps on income inequality, trade, and wages. We extend the original framework by using broader patent metrics from PATSTAT, expanding the country sample and time frame, and testing alternative calibrations. Our results confirm that cross-country differences in innovation efficiency contribute significantly to wage and income disparities. However, the strength of this relationship varies with country composition and the choice of innovation measure. Broader patent indicators yield weaker inequality effects, highlighting the importance of measurement choices in assessing technology's role in global income distribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"64 1","pages":"131-166"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13301","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145964378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early sparks: Impacts of a STEM bootcamp on young adolescents in Tanzania 早期火花：STEM训练营对坦桑尼亚青少年的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13300
So Yoon Ahn, Youjin Hahn, Semee Yoon
{"title":"Early sparks: Impacts of a STEM bootcamp on young adolescents in Tanzania","authors":"So Yoon Ahn,&nbsp;Youjin Hahn,&nbsp;Semee Yoon","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13300","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the impact of a STEM-focused experiential education program on a range of outcomes, including interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), self-esteem, career aspirations, gender attitudes, and academic engagement among young adolescents in Tanzania. The intervention resulted in several positive changes, including increased study hours, enhanced self-esteem, and stronger interest in STEM fields. For girls, it also led to less traditional gender attitudes, largely driven by perceived improvements in labor market opportunities. We conduct an exploratory analysis to assess the fadeout of these effects and find that the effects for boys remain generally stable, whereas some effects for girls diminish over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"63 4","pages":"1334-1366"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145196582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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