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The Crucial Role of Race in Twenty-First Century US Political Realignment 种族在二十一世纪美国政治调整中的关键作用
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad063
Michael Barber, Jeremy C Pope
{"title":"The Crucial Role of Race in Twenty-First Century US Political Realignment","authors":"Michael Barber, Jeremy C Pope","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad063","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional realignment theory has fallen out of fashion among political scientists, yet the popular press talk about political realignments with great regularity. However, in this research note we show that political science should reconsider realignment theory because over the last decade American politics has dramatically realigned—but only for white Americans. Specifically, we demonstrate that income has gone from a highly polarizing factor to one in which there is little to no polarization at all, while at the same time education polarization has increased dramatically to become the prominent demographic cleavage in the white segment of the electorate. However, no such realignment has occurred among Black or Latino voters. These differences across racial groups show how it is essential to consider race in theories of realignment, particularly because of the different experiences across racial groups. Realignment theory is quite viable in the twenty-first century, but the lens of race is the key to seeing the white realignment.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Spillover Effects onto General Vaccine Attitudes COVID-19 对一般疫苗态度的溢出效应
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad059
Kristin Lunz Trujillo, Jon Green, Alauna Safarpour, David Lazer, Jennifer Lin, Matthew Motta
{"title":"COVID-19 Spillover Effects onto General Vaccine Attitudes","authors":"Kristin Lunz Trujillo, Jon Green, Alauna Safarpour, David Lazer, Jennifer Lin, Matthew Motta","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad059","url":null,"abstract":"Even amid the unprecedented public health challenges attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, opposition to vaccinating against the novel coronavirus has been both prevalent and politically contentious in American public life. In this paper, we theorize that attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination might “spill over” to shape attitudes toward “postpandemic” vaccination programs and policy mandates for years to come. We find this to be the case using evidence from a large, original panel study, as well as two observational surveys, conducted on American adults during the pandemic. Specifically, we observe evidence of COVID-19 vaccine spillover onto general vaccine skepticism, flu shot intention, and attitudes toward hypothetical vaccines (i.e., vaccines in development), which do not have preexisting attitudinal connotations. Further, these spillover effects vary by partisanship and COVID-19 vaccination status, with the political left and those who received two or more COVID-19 vaccine doses becoming more provaccine, while the political right and the unvaccinated became more anti-vaccine. Taken together, these results point to the salience and politicization of the COVID-19 vaccine impacting non-COVID vaccine attitudes. We end by discussing the implications of this study for effective health messaging.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction to: Weaving It In: How Political Radio Reacts to Events 更正为:Weaving It In:政治广播如何对事件做出反应
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad058
{"title":"Correction to: Weaving It In: How Political Radio Reacts to Events","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad058","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"11 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139161356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. Dynamic Democracy: Public Opinion, Elections, and Policymaking in the American States. Devin Caughey 和 Christopher Warshaw.动态民主:美国各州的舆论、选举和决策》。
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad055
Nicholas O Howard
{"title":"Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. Dynamic Democracy: Public Opinion, Elections, and Policymaking in the American States.","authors":"Nicholas O Howard","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad055","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"85 s376","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138995318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social Desirability and Affective Polarization 社会理想与情感极化
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad053
Elizabeth C Connors
{"title":"Social Desirability and Affective Polarization","authors":"Elizabeth C Connors","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad053","url":null,"abstract":"Media coverage of affective polarization—partisans disliking and distrusting out-partisans while liking and trusting in-partisans—is abundant, both creating and reflecting a belief among the public that partisans are more affectively polarized than they are. These trends suggest that affective polarization among partisans could be viewed as socially desirable, which may then shape partisans’ expressed attitudes and behavior. To examine this, I run four original surveys and study two broad research questions: (1) Does this social desirability exist?; and (2) Can it influence partisans’ expressed affective polarization? I find that affective polarization among partisans is indeed socially desirable and that, largely motivated by self-presentation desires, this social desirability can shape partisans’ expressed affective polarization. However, my results also suggest that affective polarization responses are rather ingrained in partisans, and that while partisans are aware of this social desirability and its effect on their behavior, small changes in survey context do not necessarily produce large changes in affective polarization responses. Overall, the results offer necessary nuance to our understanding of affective polarization, implying that social desirability—which can be shifted by contexts—can alter how affectively polarized people act.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138679953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectations for Policy Change and Participation 对政策变革和参与的期望
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad047
Curtis Bram
{"title":"Expectations for Policy Change and Participation","authors":"Curtis Bram","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad047","url":null,"abstract":"What policy changes do people expect from elections, and how do these expectations influence the decision to vote? This paper seeks to understand the relationship between people’s expectations and their subsequent voting behavior by examining beliefs about what candidates would actually do if given political power. I start with a survey of political scientists and compare their forecasts about what presidential candidates will accomplish to those of the general population. Public respondents expected much more legislation to result from the 2020 election. This comparison suggests an underestimation by the public of the impediments that the separation of powers poses to passing legislation. The study further reveals that voters expected much more policy change than nonvoters did, with high expectations serving as a strong predictor of validated voter turnout. These results support explanations for the decision to vote that center on the policy benefits that people believe their preferred candidate will deliver.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"260 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138679972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Asymmetric Polarization of Immigration Opinion in the United States 美国移民意见的不对称两极分化
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad048
Trent Ollerenshaw, Ashley Jardina
{"title":"The Asymmetric Polarization of Immigration Opinion in the United States","authors":"Trent Ollerenshaw, Ashley Jardina","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad048","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze trends in Americans’ immigration attitudes and policy preferences nationally and across partisan and racial/ethnic groups. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Democrats and Republicans shared similarly negative attitudes toward immigrants and high levels of support for restrictionist immigration policies. Beginning in the 2010s and continuing through the early 2020s, however, Democrats’ aggregate immigration opinions liberalized considerably. We observed increasingly liberal immigration preferences among Democrats of all racial and ethnic backgrounds after 2016, but this trend was especially pronounced among white Democrats. Among Republicans, opinion on immigration remained mostly stable over this period, although in some cases it became more conservative (e.g., border security) and more liberal on others (e.g., amnesty). The marked liberalization in immigration opinion among Democrats has left partisans more divided on immigration than at any point since national surveys began consistently measuring immigration opinion in the late twentieth century.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Reverse Backlash: How the Success of Populist Radical Right Parties Relates to More Positive Immigration Attitudes 反向逆流:民粹主义激进右翼政党的成功与更积极的移民态度有何关系?
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad052
James Dennison, Alexander Kustov
{"title":"The Reverse Backlash: How the Success of Populist Radical Right Parties Relates to More Positive Immigration Attitudes","authors":"James Dennison, Alexander Kustov","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad052","url":null,"abstract":"What is the relationship between the electoral success of populist radical right parties (PRRPs) and public attitudes toward immigration? Previous research suggests that PRRP success can lead to more negative attitudes due to the breaking down of antiprejudice norms and more prominent anti-immigration party cues. However, we argue that greater PRRP success could have a positive relationship with immigration attitudes, reflecting negative partisanship, polarization, and a desire to reemphasize antiprejudice norms, which we call a “reverse backlash effect.” Using the best available electoral and public opinion data across the last thirty years in twenty-four European countries, our TSCS analyses show the predominance of such “reverse backlash effects” across several operationalizations of PRRP success. Our argument has important consequences for the understanding of possible PRRP effects on public opinion, as well as attitudinal formation via party cueing and social norms more generally.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Autocratic Legalism, Partisanship, and Popular Legitimation in Authoritarian Cameroon 喀麦隆专制制度下的专制法律主义、党派纷争和民众合法性
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad051
Natalie Wenzell Letsa, Yonatan L Morse
{"title":"Autocratic Legalism, Partisanship, and Popular Legitimation in Authoritarian Cameroon","authors":"Natalie Wenzell Letsa, Yonatan L Morse","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad051","url":null,"abstract":"Authoritarian regimes regularly turn to the law to justify repression. This article examines whether invoking legal institutions has a persuasive effect on public perceptions of repression, and whether that effect is shaped by partisanship. The article uses the case of Cameroon’s Special Criminal Tribunal, created in 2011 to prosecute high-profile corruption cases. A survey experiment was designed that describes the arrest and trial of a suspected corrupt oppositional minister and reminds a treatment group about the Special Criminal Tribunal. The results show that neither regime nor opposition partisans are swayed by legal justifications for repression. By contrast, nonpartisans respond negatively to autocratic legalism, particularly those with low levels of regime trust. The article clarifies when autocratic legalism might be used for public legitimation, suggests that partisanship is a useful lens for understanding public opinion in an autocracy, and elaborates upon the meaning of nonpartisanship in electoral authoritarian regimes.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
National Origin Identity and Descriptive Representativeness: Understanding Preferences for Asian Candidates and Representation 国籍认同与描述性代表性:了解对亚裔候选人的偏好和代表性
IF 3.4 1区 社会学
Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad054
Jennifer D Wu
{"title":"National Origin Identity and Descriptive Representativeness: Understanding Preferences for Asian Candidates and Representation","authors":"Jennifer D Wu","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad054","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how an Asian candidate’s national origin background affects their perceived ability to represent different constituents. Would Asian voters prefer any Asian candidate over someone who is non-Asian? Using a series of survey experiments that randomly emphasize the national origin backgrounds of two real politicians and a hypothetical politician, I find that politicians who are East or Southeast Asian are viewed as more representative of Asian American interests than those who are South Asian. Nonetheless, respondents agree that Asian politicians, regardless of national origin, will represent Asian Americans more than a non-Asian politician. While national origin background matters, there is still potential for an electoral advantage based on shared Asian panethnicity. These results contribute to our understanding of the salience of panethnic identities in electoral contexts.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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