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Surviving the fintech disruption 在金融科技颠覆中生存
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104071
Wei Jiang , Yuehua Tang , Rachel J. Xiao , Vincent Yao
{"title":"Surviving the fintech disruption","authors":"Wei Jiang ,&nbsp;Yuehua Tang ,&nbsp;Rachel J. Xiao ,&nbsp;Vincent Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of fintech on firm labor demand, job turnover, and firm performance. Occupations with higher exposure to fintech experience a net decline in job postings and employment, though both complementary and substitutive effects emerge across different sectors. Fintech blurs traditional industry boundaries, creating demand for workers with a combination of finance and technology skills. In response, firms upskill through hiring, reallocate talent internally, and pivot innovation to new areas. As a result, firms are better equipped to absorb the shock than individual workers, with innovative firms even experiencing growth in employment, sales, and productivity upon fintech disruption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104071"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CRISK: Measuring the climate risk exposure of the financial system 克里斯克：衡量金融体系的气候风险敞口
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104076
Hyeyoon Jung , Robert F. Engle , Richard Berner
{"title":"CRISK: Measuring the climate risk exposure of the financial system","authors":"Hyeyoon Jung ,&nbsp;Robert F. Engle ,&nbsp;Richard Berner","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a market-based methodology to assess banks’ resilience to climate-related risks and study the climate-related risk exposure of large global banks. We introduce a new measure, <em>CRISK</em>, which is the expected capital shortfall of a bank in a climate stress scenario. To estimate <em>CRISK</em>, we construct climate risk factors and dynamically measure banks’ stock return sensitivity (that is, <em>climate beta</em>) to the climate risk factor. We validate the climate risk factor empirically and the climate beta estimates by using granular data on large US banks’ loan portfolios. The measure is useful in quantifying banks’ climate-related risk exposure through the market risk and the credit risk channels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104076"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conditional risk and the pricing kernel 条件风险和定价内核
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104106
David Schreindorfer , Tobias Sichert
{"title":"Conditional risk and the pricing kernel","authors":"David Schreindorfer ,&nbsp;Tobias Sichert","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a statistical methodology for jointly estimating the pricing kernel and conditional physical return densities from option prices. Pricing kernel estimates show that negative stock market returns are significantly more painful to investors in low-volatility periods. Density estimates reflect a significantly positive risk–return trade-off, suggest that Martin’s (2017) lower bound on the equity premium is violated in high-volatility periods, and provide new evidence on the variance premium’s predictive power for excess returns as well as the co-movement between higher return moments. Lastly, we show that leading macrofinance models are at odds with basic features of conditional stock market risks and risk pricing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104106"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic links from bonds and cross-stock return predictability 经济联系从债券和交叉股票回报可预测性
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104110
Jian Feng , Xiaolin Huo , Xin Liu , Yifei Mao , Hong Xiang
{"title":"Economic links from bonds and cross-stock return predictability","authors":"Jian Feng ,&nbsp;Xiaolin Huo ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Yifei Mao ,&nbsp;Hong Xiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying firms’ bond-market-specific economic links through credit-rating comovement of their corporate bonds, a long-short strategy for stocks based on these links generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 0.45% per month, which cannot be explained by existing economic links in the literature. Market segmentation between the equity and bond markets appears to be the underlying mechanism: (<span><math><mi>i</mi></math></span>) The cross-return predictability is muted in the bond market; (<span><math><mrow><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi></mrow></math></span>) The cross-return predictability is mitigated in the presence of cross-holding investors; (<span><math><mrow><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi></mrow></math></span>) Equity analysts slowly incorporate information from rating-comovement links to their forecasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104110"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The economics of “Buy Now, Pay Later”: A merchant’s perspective “先买后付”的经济学：一个商人的观点
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104093
Tobias Berg , Valentin Burg , Jan Keil , Manju Puri
{"title":"The economics of “Buy Now, Pay Later”: A merchant’s perspective","authors":"Tobias Berg ,&nbsp;Valentin Burg ,&nbsp;Jan Keil ,&nbsp;Manju Puri","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104093","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104093","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>“Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) is a key innovation in consumer payments. It bundles the sale of a product with a subsidized loan, effectively offering lower prices to low-creditworthiness customers. BNPL thereby allows merchants to price-discriminate among customers with different willingness-to-pay. Consistent with a price-discrimination mechanism, we show that BNPL increases sales by 20%, driven by low-creditworthiness customers and products where market power is larger. We find that the benefits of offering BNPL significantly outweigh the costs for the merchant. Our findings help to explain the surge in popularity of BNPL in e-commerce around the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104093"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Differential access to dark markets and execution outcomes 进入暗市场和执行结果的不同途径
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086
James Brugler, Carole Comerton-Forde
{"title":"Differential access to dark markets and execution outcomes","authors":"James Brugler,&nbsp;Carole Comerton-Forde","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dark pools can restrict access for specific trader types. We compare execution outcomes between dark pools that restrict high frequency trader access and those that do not. We find that trades executed in dark pools with more access restrictions have less order flow information leakage, adverse selection risk and post-trade order imbalances than trades in less restricted pools. Evidence from exogenous dark pool closures demonstrates that these differences are causal. The ability to segment order flow can benefit investors because it allows them to make trade-offs between execution risk and information leakage across different dark venues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104086"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Printing away the mortgages: Fiscal inflation and the post-covid boom 印刷抵押贷款：财政通胀和后疫情时期的繁荣
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072
William Diamond , Tim Landvoigt , Germán Sánchez Sánchez
{"title":"Printing away the mortgages: Fiscal inflation and the post-covid boom","authors":"William Diamond ,&nbsp;Tim Landvoigt ,&nbsp;Germán Sánchez Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze interactions between fiscal and monetary stimulus in a new Keynesian model with nominal mortgage debt that can be inflated away. Redistributive transfers are most impactful when followed by a temporary deviation from inflation-targeting monetary policy. Unlike other fiscal policies, redistribution causes inflation even in the absence of long-run debt sustainability problems, and inflating away mortgages results in additional redistribution. In a quantitative model with mortgage refinancing frictions, transfer payments provide much more stimulus than the redistributive effects of inflation. Borrowers gradually refinance after their mortgages are inflated away, dampening their immediate consumption response and reducing their long-run labor supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104072"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of prices on analyst cash flow expectations: Reconciling subjective beliefs data with rational discount rate variation 价格对分析师现金流预期的影响：调和主观信念数据与理性折现率变化
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095
Aditya Chaudhry
{"title":"The impact of prices on analyst cash flow expectations: Reconciling subjective beliefs data with rational discount rate variation","authors":"Aditya Chaudhry","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I show that prices impact analyst cash flow expectations and argue this impact can partially reconcile subjective beliefs data with asset pricing models in which investors have rational expectations and discount rate variation drives prices. Previous work argues that correlations of biased <em>analyst</em> cash flow expectations with prices and future returns contradict rational models and imply biased <em>investor</em> expectations distort prices. However, using two instrumental variables for price, I find increases in price unrelated to cash flow news raise analyst cash flow expectations. Based on this empirical finding, I propose a model with rational investors that matches key moments in beliefs data: analysts form biased cash flow expectations by learning from prices that contain discount rate variation. Thus, while stylized facts in beliefs data can be consistent with investors having biased expectations that distort prices, these facts can also be consistent with investors having rational expectations and analysts learning from prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104095"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Private equity in the hospital industry 医院行业的私募股权
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107
Janet Gao , Yongseok Kim , Merih Sevilir
{"title":"Private equity in the hospital industry","authors":"Janet Gao ,&nbsp;Yongseok Kim ,&nbsp;Merih Sevilir","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the survival prospects, employment profiles, and patient outcomes at private equity (PE)-acquired hospitals. Target hospitals maintain their survival rates while significantly reducing employment and wage expenditures. The number of core medical workers drops temporarily, but returns to its pre-acquisition level in the long run. However, administrative job and wage cuts persist over the long term, particularly at previously nonprofit hospitals. Using proprietary insurance claims data, we find no significant changes in patient demographics or inpatient prices at PE-acquired hospitals. While patient satisfaction declines, there is no evidence of increased patient mortality or readmission rates at PE-acquired hospitals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104107"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank stress testing, human capital investment and risk management 银行压力测试、人力资本投资和风险管理
IF 10.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104
Thomas Schneider , Philip E. Strahan , Jun Yang
{"title":"Bank stress testing, human capital investment and risk management","authors":"Thomas Schneider ,&nbsp;Philip E. Strahan ,&nbsp;Jun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies banks’ investment in risk management human capital following the Global Financial Crisis and the advent of stress testing. Our results suggest that ‘Too Big to Fail’ distortions may have weakened large banks’ incentive to invest in risk management talent. Stress testing, which focuses on the largest banks, spurred demand for skilled quantitative risk managers, but only narrowly in anticipation of a test and following poor performance on a test. Stress testing does not affect demand for the over 90 % of risk management jobs not linked to passing tests, limiting its effectiveness in improving risk management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 104104"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144123436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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