Journal of Official Statistics最新文献_第2页

Letter to Editor Quality of 2017 Population Census of Pakistan by Age and Sex 致巴基斯坦2017年按年龄和性别分列的人口普查质量编辑的信

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0013

A. Wazir, Anne Goujon

{"title":"Letter to Editor Quality of 2017 Population Census of Pakistan by Age and Sex","authors":"A. Wazir, Anne Goujon","doi":"10.2478/jos-2023-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2023-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This Letter to Editor is a supplement to the previously published article in the Journal of Official Statistics (Wazir and Goujon 2021). In 2021, a reconstruction method using demographic analysis for assessing the quality and validity of the 2017 census data has been applied, by critically investigating the demographic changes in the intercensal period at national and provincial levels. However, at the time when the article was written, the age and sex structure of the population from the 2017 census had not yet been published, making it hard to fully appreciate the reconstruction of the national and subnational level populations. In the meantime, detailed data have become available and offer the possibility to assess the reconstruction’s outcome more in detail. Therefore, this letter aims two-fold: (1) to analyze the quality of the age and sex distribution in the 2017 Population census of Pakistan, and (2) to compare the reconstruction by age and sex to the results of the 2017 population census. Our results reveal that the age and sex structure of the population as estimated by the 2017 census suffer from some irregularities. Our analysis by age and sex reinforces the main conclusion of previous article that the next census in Pakistan should increase in quality with an inbuild post-enumeration survey along with post-census demographic analysis.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"275 - 284"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48735237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Database Reconstruction Is Not So Easy and Is Different from Reidentification 数据库重建不是那么容易，它不同于重新识别

4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0017

Krishnamurty Muralidhar, Josep Domingo-Ferrer

{"title":"Database Reconstruction Is Not So Easy and Is Different from Reidentification","authors":"Krishnamurty Muralidhar, Josep Domingo-Ferrer","doi":"10.2478/jos-2023-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2023-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In recent years, it has been claimed that releasing accurate statistical information on a database is likely to allow its complete reconstruction. Differential privacy has been suggested as the appropriate methodology to prevent these attacks. These claims have recently been taken very seriously by the U.S. Census Bureau and led them to adopt differential privacy for releasing U.S. Census data. This in turn has caused consternation among users of the Census data due to the lack of accuracy of the protected outputs. It has also brought legal action against the U.S. Department of Commerce. In this article, we trace the origins of the claim that releasing information on a database automatically makes it vulnerable to being exposed by reconstruction attacks and we show that this claim is, in fact, incorrect. We also show that reconstruction can be averted by properly using traditional statistical disclosure control (SDC) techniques. We further show that the geographic level at which exact counts are released is even more relevant to protection than the actual SDC method employed. Finally, we caution against confusing reconstruction and reidentification: using the quality of reconstruction as a metric of reidentification results in exaggerated reidentification risk figures.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135889539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Predicting Days to Respondent Contact in Cross-Sectional Surveys Using a Bayesian Approach 使用贝叶斯方法预测横断面调查中受访者接触的天数

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0015

Stephanie Coffey, Michael R. Elliott

{"title":"Predicting Days to Respondent Contact in Cross-Sectional Surveys Using a Bayesian Approach","authors":"Stephanie Coffey, Michael R. Elliott","doi":"10.2478/jos-2023-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2023-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Surveys estimate and monitor a variety of data collection parameters, including response propensity, number of contacts, and data collection costs. These parameters can be used as inputs to a responsive/adaptive design or to monitor the progression of a data collection period against predefined expectations. Recently, Bayesian methods have emerged as a method for combining historical information or external data with data from the in-progress data collection period to improve prediction. We develop a Bayesian method for predicting a measure of case-level progress or productivity, the estimated time lag, in days, between first contact attempt and first respondent contact. We compare the quality of predictions from the Bayesian method to predictions generated from more commonly-used predictive methods that leverage data from only historical data collection periods or the in-progress round of data collection. Using prediction error and misclassification as short- or long- day lags, we demonstrate that the Bayesian method results in improved predictions close to the day of the first contact attempt, when these predictions may be most informative for interventions or interviewer feedback. This application adds to evidence that combining historical and current information about data collection, in a Bayesian framework, can improve predictions of data collection parameters.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"325 - 349"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45295208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Looking for a New Approach to Measuring the Spatial Concentration of the Human Population 寻找一种测量人口空间集中度的新方法

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0014

Federico Benassi, Massimo Mucciardi, Giovanni Pirrotta

引用次数: 0

Towards Demand-Driven On-The-Fly Statistics 走向需求驱动的动态统计

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0016

T. Gelsema, Guido van den Heuvel

引用次数: 0

Comment to Mulalidhar and Domingo-Ferrer (2023) – Legacy Statistical Disclosure Limitation Techniques Were Not An Option for the 2020 US Census of Population And Housing 对Mulalidhar和Domingo Ferrer（2023）的评论——遗产统计披露限制技术不是2020年美国人口和住房普查的选择

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0018

S. Garfinkel

引用次数: 2

A Rejoinder to Garfinkel (2023) – Legacy Statistical Disclosure Limitation Techniques for Protecting 2020 Decennial US Census: Still a Viable Option 对Garfinkel(2023)的回复-保护2020年十年一次的美国人口普查的遗留统计披露限制技术:仍然是一个可行的选择

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0019

K. Muralidhar, J. Domingo-Ferrer

引用次数: 0

A Note on the Optimum Allocation of Resources to Follow up Unit Nonrespondents in Probability Surveys 关于概率调查中后续单位非应答者资源优化配置的一点注记

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0020

Siu-Ming Tam, A. Holmberg, Summer Wang

引用次数: 0

Design and Sample Size Determination for Experiments on Nonresponse Followup using a Sequential Regression Model 使用序列回归模型的无反应随访实验的设计和样本量确定

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0009

Andrew M. Raim, T. Mathew, Kimberly F. Sellers, Renée Ellis, Mikelyn Meyers

引用次数: 0

From Quarterly to Monthly Turnover Figures Using Nowcasting Methods 从使用临近预报方法的季度到月度营业额数据

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2023-0012

Daan B. Zult, Sabine Krieg, B. Schouten, P. Ouwehand, Jan van den Brakel

{"title":"From Quarterly to Monthly Turnover Figures Using Nowcasting Methods","authors":"Daan B. Zult, Sabine Krieg, B. Schouten, P. Ouwehand, Jan van den Brakel","doi":"10.2478/jos-2023-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2023-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Short-term business statistics at Statistics Netherlands are largely based on Value Added Tax (VAT) administrations. Companies may decide to file their tax return on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Most companies file their tax return quarterly. So far, these VAT based short-term business statistics are published with a quarterly frequency as well. In this article we compare different methods to compile monthly figures, even though a major part of these data is observed quarterly. The methods considered to produce a monthly indicator must address two issues. The first issue is to combine a high- and low-frequency series into a single high-frequency series, while both series measure the same phenomenon of the target population. The appropriate method that is designed for this purpose is usually referred to as “benchmarking”. The second issue is a missing data problem, because the first and second month of a quarter are published before the corresponding quarterly data is available. A “nowcast” method can be used to estimate these months. The literature on mixed frequency models provides solutions for both problems, sometimes by dealing with them simultaneously. In this article we combine different benchmarking and nowcasting models and evaluate combinations. Our evaluation distinguishes between relatively stable periods and periods during and after a crisis because different approaches might be optimal under these two conditions. We find that during stable periods the so-called Bridge models perform slightly better than the alternatives considered. Until about fifteen months after a crisis, the models that rely heavier on historic patterns such as the Bridge, MIDAS and structural time series models are outperformed by more straightforward (S)ARIMA approaches.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"253 - 273"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44455403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0