Journal of Official Statistics最新文献_第10页

Modelling Frontier Mortality Using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models 使用贝叶斯广义加性模型建模前沿死亡率

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0026

Jason Hilton, Erengul Dodd, J. Forster, Peter W. F. Smith

{"title":"Modelling Frontier Mortality Using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models","authors":"Jason Hilton, Erengul Dodd, J. Forster, Peter W. F. Smith","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Mortality rates differ across countries and years, and the country with the lowest observed mortality has changed over time. However, the classic Science paper by Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) identified a persistent linear trend over time in maximum national life expectancy. In this article, we look to exploit similar regularities in age-specific mortality by considering for any given year a hypothetical mortality ‘frontier’, which we define as the lower limit of the force of mortality at each age across all countries. Change in this frontier reflects incremental advances across the wide range of social, institutional and scientific dimensions that influence mortality. We jointly estimate frontier mortality as well as mortality rates for individual countries. Generalised additive models are used to estimate a smooth set of baseline frontier mortality rates and mortality improvements, and country-level mortality is modelled as a set of smooth, positive deviations from this, forcing the mortality estimates for individual countries to lie above the frontier. This model is fitted to data for a selection of countries from the Human Mortality Database (2019). The efficacy of the model in forecasting over a ten-year horizon is compared to a similar model fitted to each country separately.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":"569 - 589"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48259460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Optimal Sampling for the Population Coverage Survey of the New Italian Register Based Census 意大利新登记人口普查人口覆盖率调查的最佳抽样

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0029

P. Righi, P. D. Falorsi, Stefano Daddi, Epifania Fiorello, P. Massoli, M. Terribili

引用次数: 6

Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members 基于Fay-Herriot模型的移民家庭预测替代方案

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0034

Jairo Fúquene-Patiño, C. Cristancho, Mariana Ospina, Domingo Morales González

{"title":"Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members","authors":"Jairo Fúquene-Patiño, C. Cristancho, Mariana Ospina, Domingo Morales González","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":"771 - 789"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43225302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Exploratory Assessment of the Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis 利用人口学分析对巴基斯坦人口普查的探索性评估

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0032

A. Wazir, A. Goujon

{"title":"Exploratory Assessment of the Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis","authors":"A. Wazir, A. Goujon","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0032","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, particularly in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this article to use demographic analysis to assess the results of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using data from the 1998 census, from all available intercensal surveys, including three rounds of Demographic and Health Survey. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each five first-level subnational entities to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration derived from the analysis of the existing data. We arrive at approximately similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 210 million (95% CI: 203.4–218.9) compared to 207.8 million counted (1.1% difference). However, we found substantial sub-national variations. While there are too many uncertainties in the data used for the reconstruction to be fully confident about them, this analysis should prompt the national and the international community to ensure that a post-enumeration survey and demographic analysis are regular features of census operations of Pakistan in particular, and in developing countries with deficient data as a whole.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":"719 - 750"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41779700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies 欧洲背景下的生育率预测：对统计机构当前做法的调查

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0025

R. Gleditsch, A. Syse, Michael J Thomas

{"title":"Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies","authors":"R. Gleditsch, A. Syse, Michael J Thomas","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Projection studies have often focused on mortality and, more recently, migration. Fertility is less studied, although even small changes can have significant repercussions for the size and age structure of future populations. Across Europe, there is no consensus on how fertility is best projected. In this article, we identify different approaches used to project fertility among statistical agencies in Europe and provide an assessment of the different approaches according to the producers themselves. Data were collected using a mixed-method approach. First, European statistical agencies answered a questionnaire regarding fertility projection practices. Second, an in-depth review of select countries was performed. Most agencies combine formal models with expert opinion. While many attempt to maximise the use of relevant inputs, there is more variation in the detail of outputs, with some agencies unable to account for changing age patterns. In a context of limited resources, most are satisfied with their approaches, though some are assessing alternative methodologies to improve accuracy and increase transparency. This study highlights the diversity of approaches used in fertility projections across Europe. Such knowledge may be useful to statistical agencies as they consider, test and implement different approaches, perhaps in collaboration with other agencies and the wider scientific community.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":"547 - 568"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45309639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Latent Class Analysis for Estimating an Unknown Population Size – with Application to Censuses 估计未知人口规模的潜在类分析——及其在人口普查中的应用

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0030

Bernard Baffour, James J. Brown, Peter W. F. Smith

引用次数: 2

Preface 前言

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0023

J. Bijak, John B. Bryant, Elżbieta Gołata, Steve Smallwood

引用次数: 1

Letter to the Editors 致编辑的信

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0024

G. Lanzieri

引用次数: 0

A simulation study of diagnostics for selection bias. 选择偏差诊断的模拟研究。

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-09-01 Epub Date: 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0033

Philip S Boonstra, Roderick J A Little, Brady T West, Rebecca R Andridge, Fernanda Alvarado-Leiton

{"title":"A simulation study of diagnostics for selection bias.","authors":"Philip S Boonstra, Roderick J A Little, Brady T West, Rebecca R Andridge, Fernanda Alvarado-Leiton","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0033","url":null,"abstract":"A non-probability sampling mechanism arising from non-response or non-selection is likely to bias estimates of parameters with respect to a target population of interest. This bias poses a unique challenge when selection is 'non-ignorable', i.e. dependent upon the unobserved outcome of interest, since it is then undetectable and thus cannot be ameliorated. We extend a simulation study by Nishimura et al. [International Statistical Review, 84, 43-62 (2016)], adding two recently published statistics: the so-called 'standardized measure of unadjusted bias (SMUB)' and 'standardized measure of adjusted bias (SMAB)', which explicitly quantify the extent of bias (in the case of SMUB) or non-ignorable bias (in the case of SMAB) under the assumption that a specified amount of non-ignorable selection exists. Our findings suggest that this new sensitivity diagnostic is more correlated with, and more predictive of, the true, unknown extent of selection bias than other diagnostics, even when the underlying assumed level of non-ignorability is incorrect.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 3","pages":"751-769"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8460089/pdf/nihms-1654085.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39450929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

A Product Match Adjusted R Squared Method for Defining Products with Transaction Data 用交易数据定义产品的产品匹配调整R平方方法

IF 1.1 4区数学

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0018

A. Chessa

{"title":"A Product Match Adjusted R Squared Method for Defining Products with Transaction Data","authors":"A. Chessa","doi":"10.2478/jos-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The occurrence of relaunches of consumer goods at the barcode (GTIN) level is a well-known phenomenon in transaction data of consumer purchases. GTINs of disappearing and reintroduced items have to be linked in order to capture possible price changes. This article presents a method that groups GTINs into strata (‘products’) by balancing two measures: an explained variance (R squared) measure for the ‘homogeneity’ of GTINs within products, while the second expresses the degree to which products can be ‘matched’ over time with respect to a comparison period. The resulting product ‘match adjusted R squared’ (MARS) combines explained variance in product prices with product match over time, so that different stratification schemes can be ranked according to the combined measure. MARS has been applied to a broad range of product types. Individual GTINs are suitable as products for food and beverages, but not for product types with higher rates of churn, such as clothing, pharmacy products and electronics. In these cases, products are defined as combinations of characteristics, so that GTINs with the same characteristics are grouped into the same product. Future research focuses on further developments of MARS, such as attribute selection when data sets contain large numbers of variables.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":"37 1","pages":"411 - 432"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44044946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0