Ecography最新文献

{"title":"Development stage-dependent effects of biodiversity on aboveground biomass of temperate forests","authors":"Wenqiang Gao,&nbsp;Maowei Liang,&nbsp;Wenhua Xiang,&nbsp;Liyong Fu,&nbsp;Hong Guo,&nbsp;Xiao He,&nbsp;Ram P. Sharma,&nbsp;Zhicheng Chen,&nbsp;Yutang Li,&nbsp;Mengli Zhou,&nbsp;Jie Lan,&nbsp;Dongli Gao,&nbsp;Xiangdong Lei","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07414","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07414","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Increasing evidence shows that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships (BEFs) become stronger as forests develop, but much of the evidence is drawn from experiments (less than 30 years). How the biodiversity effects vary with stand development stages remains largely unexplored. Using a large temperate forest dataset with 2392 permanent plots in northeastern China, we examined the relationships between biodiversity (i.e. tree species richness, functional diversity, and functional composition) and aboveground biomass (AGB) across different development stages of temperate forests (covering all stages from young to overmature forests). Specifically, the complementarity and mass-ratio effects across different forest development stages were evaluated to elucidate emerging patterns that explain ecosystem functioning. We observed positive BEFs using both tree species richness and functional diversity, but these positive effects decreased with forest development. However, the effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) on AGB showed two peaks in young and mature stands. Interestingly, the effects of CWM on AGB became larger than the effects of functional diversity after the forests developed to near-mature/mature stands, indicating that BEFs are driven by mass-ratio effects (i.e. dominant tree species) rather than niche complementarity in old stands. The high AGB in young stands was characterized by tree species with high resource acquisition ability, however, in old stands, it was associated with tree species with both high resource acquisition ability and conservative traits. Our findings indicate how the developmental stage influences the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning in natural forests. The findings tentatively advocate for a mechanistic framework of BEFs covering all developmental stages of temperate forests, which could facilitate the formulation of effective strategies for enhancing ecosystem functioning at different development stages.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Joint spatial modeling of cluster size and density for a heavily hunted primate persisting in a heterogeneous landscape","authors":"Andrew Houldcroft,&nbsp;Finn Lindgren,&nbsp;Américo Sanhá,&nbsp;Maimuna Jaló,&nbsp;Aissa Regalla de Barros,&nbsp;Kimberley J. Hockings,&nbsp;Elena Bersacola","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07399","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07399","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Shared landscapes in which humans and wildlife coexist, are increasingly recognized as integral to conservation. Fine-scale data on the distribution and density of threatened wildlife are therefore critical to promote long-term coexistence. Yet, the spatial complexity of habitat, anthropic threats and animal behaviour in shared landscapes challenges conventional survey techniques. For social wildlife in particular, the size of sub-groups or clusters is likely to both vary in space and influence detectability, biasing density estimation and spatial prediction. Using the R package ‘inlabru', we develop a full-likelihood joint log-Gaussian Cox process to simultaneously perform spatial distance sampling and model a spatially varying cluster size distribution, which we condition upon detection probability to mitigate cluster-size detection bias. We accommodate spatial dependencies by incorporating a non-stationary Gaussian Markov random field, enabling the explicit inclusion of geographical barriers to wildlife dispersal. We demonstrate this model using 136 georeferenced detections of Campbell's monkey <i>Cercopithecus campbelli</i> clusters, collected with 398.56 km of line transects across a shared agroforest landscape mosaic (1067 km²) in Guinea-Bissau. We assess a suite of anthropogenic and environmental spatial covariates, finding that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and proximity to mangroves are both powerful spatial predictors of density. We captured strong spatial variation in cluster size, likely driven by fission–fusion in response to the complex distribution of resources and risk in the landscape. If left unaccounted for under existing approaches, such variation may bias density surface estimation. We estimate a population of 10 301 (95% CI [7606–14 104]) individuals and produce a fine-scale predictive density map, revealing the importance of mangrove-habitat interfaces for the conservation of this heavily hunted primate. This work demonstrates a powerful, widely applicable approach for monitoring socially flexible wildlife and informing evidence-based conservation in complex, heterogeneous landscapes moving forward.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07399","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time underlies the origin and maintenance of tropical spider diversity","authors":"Fengyuan Li,&nbsp;Tongyao Jiang,&nbsp;Wei Zhang,&nbsp;Shuqiang Li","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07586","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07586","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Relative to its size, tropical Asia is likely to be the richest region in terms of biodiversity. However, the factors of species diversity formation and maintenance in Southeast (SE) Asia and neighboring regions remain poorly understood. Here we infer the evolutionary relationships within psilodercid spiders by incorporating fossil information into a robust, unprecedentedly complete species-level phylogeny of 202 extant species to explore potential abiotic drivers and ecological features underlying their stable diversification history. The combination of extant and extinct historical biogeographic data indicates that in situ speciation is the predominant form of diversification in tropical Asia but diverse Cretaceous psilodercids in Myanmar ambers were replaced by other biogeographical lineages during the northward movements of the Burma Terrane. Furthermore, our diversification analyses show no diversification rate changes through time and across geographic space in this family, but the genus <i>Althepus</i> displays an accelerated rate of species diversification driven by the remarkable expansion of leg length. Trait evolution analysis shows that ecological trait divergence contributes to the diversification and accumulation of tropical spiders by facilitating species coexistence. These findings provide empirical evidence that the ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time scales is key to forming species diversity hotspots in SE Asia. Thus, this study integrating molecular evidence and paleontological interpretation provides a new framework for understanding the evolution of tropical species diversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07586","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting fine-scale distributions and emergent spatiotemporal patterns from temporally dynamic step selection simulations","authors":"Scott W. Forrest,&nbsp;Dan Pagendam,&nbsp;Michael Bode,&nbsp;Christopher Drovandi,&nbsp;Jonathan R. Potts,&nbsp;Justin Perry,&nbsp;Eric Vanderduys,&nbsp;Andrew J. Hoskins","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07421","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07421","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding and predicting animal movement is fundamental to ecology and conservation management. Models that estimate and then predict animal movement and habitat selection parameters underpin diverse conservation applications, from mitigating invasive species spread to enhancing landscape connectivity. However, many predictive models overlook fine-scale temporal dynamics within their predictions, despite animals often displaying fine-scale behavioural variability that might significantly alter their movement, habitat selection and distribution over time. Incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics, such as circadian rhythms, within predictive models might reduce the averaging out of such behaviours, thereby enhancing our ability to make predictions in both the short and long term. We tested whether the inclusion of fine-scale temporal dynamics improved both fine-scale (hourly) and long-term (seasonal) spatial predictions for a significant invasive species of northern Australia, the water buffalo <i>Bubalus bubalis</i>. Water buffalo require intensive management actions over vast, remote areas and display distinct circadian rhythms linked to habitat use. To inform management operations we generated hourly and dry season prediction maps by simulating trajectories from static and temporally dynamic step selection functions (SSFs) that were fitted to the GPS data of 13 water buffalo. We found that simulations generated from temporally dynamic models replicated the buffalo crepuscular movement patterns and dynamic habitat selection, resulting in more informative and accurate hourly predictions. Additionally, when the simulations were aggregated into long-term predictions, the dynamic models were more accurate and better able to highlight areas of concentrated habitat use that might indicate high-risk areas for environmental damage. Our findings emphasise the importance of incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics in predictive models for species with clear dynamic behavioural patterns. By integrating temporally dynamic processes into animal movement trajectories, we demonstrate an approach that can enhance conservation management strategies and deepen our understanding of ecological and behavioural patterns across multiple timescales.</p><p>Keywords: circadian, fine-scale dynamics, harmonics, landscape-scale distributions, simulated trajectories, temporal dynamics</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07421","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multitrophic assembly influences β-diversity across a tripartite system of flowering plants, bees, and bee-gut microbiomes","authors":"Magda Argueta-Guzmán,&nbsp;Quinn S. McFrederick,&nbsp;Marko J. Spasojevic","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07490","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07490","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Theoretical frameworks of terrestrial community assembly often focus on single trophic levels (e.g. plants) without considering how complex interdependencies across different trophic levels influence assembly mechanisms. Yet, when multiple trophic levels are considered (e.g. plant–pollinator, plant–microbe interactions) the focus is typically on network analyses at local spatial scales. As spatial variation in biodiversity (β-diversity) is increasingly being recognized for its relevance in understanding community assembly and conservation, considering how β-diversity at one trophic level may be influenced by assembly processes that alter abundance and composition of interacting communities at a different trophic level (multitrophic dependency) is critical. Here, we build on single trophic level community assembly frameworks to explore the assembly processes affecting β-diversity in multitrophic communities comprising flowering plants, their bee pollinators, and the corresponding bee-gut microbiota to better understand the importance of multitrophic dependency in community assembly. Using distance-based redundancy analysis and variation partitioning, we investigated community assembly processes across three interconnected trophic levels in two ecological regions in southern California: the Santa Monica Mountains and three islands of the Channel Island Archipelago. We found that the deterministic effects of multitrophic dependency are stronger on directly connected trophic levels than on indirectly connected trophic levels (i.e. flowers explain bee communities and bees explain bee-gut bacteria communities, but flowers weakly explain variation in bee-gut bacteria communities). We also found notable regional variation, where multitrophic dependency was weaker on the Channel Islands as ecological drift was more pronounced. Our results suggest that integrating the influence of multitrophic dependency on community assembly is important for elucidating drivers of β-diversity and that multitrophic dependency can be determined by the regional context in which β-diversity is measured. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of considering multiscale perspectives – both multitrophic and multiregional – in community assembly to fully elucidate assembly processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07490","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional Biomes outperform broader spatial units in capturing biodiversity responses to land-use change","authors":"Peggy A. Bevan,&nbsp;Guilherme Braga Ferreira,&nbsp;Daniel J. Ingram,&nbsp;Marcus Rowcliffe,&nbsp;Lucy Young,&nbsp;Robin Freeman,&nbsp;Kate E. Jones","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07318","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07318","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biogeographic context, such as biome type, has a critical influence on ecological resilience, as climatic and environmental conditions impact how communities respond to anthropogenic threats. For example, land-use change causes a greater loss of biodiversity in tropical biomes compared to temperate biomes. Furthermore, the nature of threats impacting ecosystems varies geographically. Therefore, monitoring the state of biodiversity at a high spatial resolution is crucial to capture variation in threat–responses caused by biogeographical context. However such fine-scale ecological data collection could be prohibitively resource intensive. In this study, we aim to find the spatial scale that could best capture variation in community-level threat responses whilst keeping data collection requirements feasible. Using a database of biodiversity records with extensive global coverage, we modelled species richness and total abundance (the responses) across land-use types (reflecting threats), considering three different spatial scales: biomes, biogeographical realms, and regional biomes (the interaction between realm and biome). We then modelled data from three highly sampled biomes to ask how responses to threat differ between regional biomes and taxonomic group. We found strong support for regional biomes in explaining variation in species richness and total abundance compared to biomes or realms alone. Our biome case studies demonstrate that there is variation in magnitude and direction of threat responses across both regional biomes and taxonomic group, although the interpretation is limited by sampling bias in the literature. All groups in tropical forest showed a consistently negative response, whilst many taxon-regional biome groups showed no clear response to threat in temperate forest and tropical grassland. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the taxon-regional biome unit has potential as a reasonable spatial unit for monitoring how ecological communities respond to threats and designing effective conservation interventions to bend the curve on biodiversity loss.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07318","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142763491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Living on the edge – physiological tolerance to frost and drought explains range limits of 35 European tree species","authors":"Anne Baranger, Thomas Cordonnier, Guillaume Charrier, Sylvain Delzon, Maximilian Larter, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Georges Kunstler","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07528","url":null,"abstract":"Species distribution models are key to evaluate how climate change threatens European forests and tree species distributions. However, current models struggle to integrate ecophysiological processes. Mechanistic models are complex and have high parameter requirements. Some correlative species distribution models have tried to include traits but so far have struggled to directly connect to ecophysiological processes. Here, we propose a new strategy in which species distributions are based on safety margins which represent species' proximity to their physiological thresholds. We derived frost and drought safety margins for 38 European tree species as the difference between physiological tolerance traits and local maximum stress. We used <i>LT</i>₅₀ and Ψ₅₀ as tolerance traits for frost and drought, respectively, and local minimum temperature and minimum soil water potential as maximum stress. We integrated these safety margins into a species distribution model, which tests if the probability of species presence declines rapidly when the safety margin reaches zero, when physiological stress exceeds the species' tolerance traits. Our results showed thaet 35 of the 38 studied species had their distribution explained by one or both safety margins. We demonstrated that safety-margins-based model can be efficiently transferred to species for which occurrence data are not available. The probability of presence dropped dramatically when the frost safety margin reached zero, whereas it was less sensitive to the drought safety margin. This differential sensitivity may be due to the more complex regulation of drought stress, especially as water is a shared resource, whereas frost is not. Our analysis provides a new approach to link species distributions to their physiological limits and shows that, in Europe, frost and drought safety margins are important determinants of species distributions.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"261 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142760668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do ecologists estimate occupancy in practice?","authors":"Benjamin R. Goldstein, Abigail G. Keller, Kendall L. Calhoun, Kristin J. Barker, Felipe Montealegre-Mora, Mitchell W. Serota, Amy Van Scoyoc, Phoebe Parker-Shames, Chelsea L. Andreozzi, Perry de Valpine","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07402","url":null,"abstract":"Over 20 years ago, ecologists were introduced to the site occupancy model (SOM) for estimating occupancy rates from detection-nondetection data. In the ensuing decades, the SOM and its hierarchical modeling extensions have become mainstays of quantitative ecology, and estimating occupancy rates has become one of the most common applications of ecological field data. Here, we review 364 peer-reviewed articles published between 2019–2021 that estimated occupancy. We first document broad patterns in study design and statistical methods to provide educators, developers of methodology and software, and ecologists with a clear picture of the landscape of methodologies used to estimate animal occupancy. Second, we conduct a focused review of a subset of 98 papers that applied the hierarchical SOM, drawing from methodological literature to identify discrepancies between SOM applications and methodological best practices. We discuss limits to statistical power, issues with model checking and model selection procedures, potential problems arising from unmodeled non-independence, and reproducibility. We highlight areas of rapid advancement in interpreting animal occupancy related to animal movement, imperfect detection, and the occupancy–density relationship. We aim to help readers understand the landscape of methods available, motivate shifts toward robust and reproducible science, and inspire new software and methodological research.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142760722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Continent-wide analysis of moss diversity in Antarctica","authors":"Rodolfo O. Anderson,&nbsp;Steven L. Chown,&nbsp;Rachel I. Leihy","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07353","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07353","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mosses play a key role in Antarctic ecosystems. Understanding of moss diversity and its likely drivers across Antarctica is, however, limited, as is the extent to which Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) represent this diversity. Both are important given changing climates and direct human impacts in the region. Here we investigate variation in moss diversity, the frequency distribution of their range sizes, and their continent-wide conservation. Richness is positively related to temperature, but negatively related to latitude, distance from bird colonies and geothermal sites; terrain roughness showed weak, yet positive, effects. Beta-diversity is similar to that found for assemblages separated by long distances, dominated by species turnover. Multi-site turnover (zeta diversity) suggests that niche-related mechanisms are likely more responsible for diversity patterns than neutral mechanisms, despite the significant role wind-driven dispersal is thought to play in structuring Antarctic biodiversity patterns. The frequency distribution of range sizes of mosses was right skewed, indicating that several moss species have very small range sizes, while a few species have larger ranges. Where ASPAs include mosses, richness varies between 1 and 41 species, with 65.1% (71 species) of the 109 species known from the continent included in the ASPA network. Twenty-four species lie within 25 km² radius of an ASPA, and 14 species beyond this distance could be considered relatively more difficult to protect. These findings lend support to the proposal that changing temperatures and expanding ice-free areas will substantially increase Antarctica's diversity. Nonetheless, the mosses are reasonably well represented by the ASPA network, contrasting with other Antarctic taxa.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07353","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142760715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change","authors":"Erik A. Beever,&nbsp;Marie L. Westover,&nbsp;Adam B. Smith,&nbsp;Francis D. Gerraty,&nbsp;Peter D. Billman,&nbsp;Felisa A. Smith","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07382","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many organisms leave evidence of their former occurrence, such as scat, abandoned burrows, middens, ancient eDNA or fossils, which indicate areas from which a species has since disappeared. However, combining this evidence with contemporary occurrences within a single modeling framework remains challenging. Traditional binary species-distribution modeling reduces occurrence to two temporally coarse states (present/absent), so thus cannot leverage the information inherent in temporal sequences of evidence of past occurrence. In contrast, ordinal modeling can use the natural time-varying order of states (e.g. never occupied versus previously occupied versus currently occupied) to provide greater insights into range shifts. We demonstrate the power of ordinal modeling for identifying the major influences of biogeographic and climatic variables on current and past occupancy of the American pika <i>Ochotona princeps</i>, a climate-sensitive mammal. Sampling over five years across the species' southernmost, warm-edge range limit, we tested the effects of these variables at 570 habitat patches where occurrence was classified either as binary or ordinal. The two analyses produced different top models and predictors – ordinal modeling highlighted chronic cold as the most-important predictor of occurrence, whereas binary modeling indicated primacy of average summer-long temperatures. Colder wintertime temperatures were associated in ordinal models with higher likelihood of occurrence, which we hypothesize reflect longer retention of insulative and meltwater-provisioning snowpacks. Our binary results mirrored those of other past pika investigations employing binary analysis, wherein warmer temperatures decrease likelihood of occurrence. Because both ordinal- and binary-analysis top models included climatic and biogeographic factors, results constitute important considerations for climate-adaptation planning. Cross-time evidences of species occurrences remain underutilized for assessing responses to climate change. Compared to multi-state occupancy modeling, which presumes all states occur in the same time period, ordinal models enable use of historical evidence of species' occurrence to identify factors driving species' distributions more finely across time.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2025 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}