IF 5.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Ecography Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI:10.1111/ecog.07502
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Casey Visintin, Trent D. Penman
{"title":"Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates","authors":"Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Casey Visintin, Trent D. Penman","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07502","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of these complex interactions for different plant functional types under future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species across two functional plant types, obligate seeder and facultative resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over 7000 km<sup>2</sup> in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes under six different future climates representing different temperature and precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire management prioritisation for species into the future.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecography","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07502","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

不断变化的气候和不断变化的火灾机制的个体效应和交互效应正在影响全球许多植物物种。随着时间的推移,气候变化可能会改变环境条件和野火机制,并影响物种的人口特征,从而对植物种群的生存能力产生重大影响。然而,这些复杂的相互作用在未来气候条件下对不同植物功能类型的影响却很少被研究。我们采用概念验证案例研究方法,在澳大利亚东南部温带地区两片超过 7000 平方公里的土地上,对两种功能植物类型--强制性播种者和兼性再发芽者--的多种植物物种进行建模,研究人口迁移和火灾机制变化对种群持久性的交互影响。我们的研究方法是将火候模拟工具与空间明确的种群生存力分析模型相结合。我们模拟了代表不同温度和降水变化的六种不同未来气候下的火灾机制,并将其与 16 种假设的植物人口变化情景相结合,这些情景的特点是单个或多个植物人口过程发生变化。与单纯的火灾机制相比,人口统计过程的变化更有可能导致植物种群减少或灭绝。虽然两种功能类型都容易受到气候引起的人口变化的影响,但强制性播种者的持久性也受到以较短火灾间隔为特征的未来火灾机制的负面影响。将火灾机制模拟与空间明确的种群生存能力分析相结合,提高了我们识别火灾机制随气候变化而变化时哪些植物功能类型面临最大灭绝风险及其原因的能力。这种灵活的框架是探索复杂的相互作用的第一步,这种相互作用将决定植物在不断变化的气候条件下的生存能力,并将改善未来物种研究和火灾管理的优先次序。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates
Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of these complex interactions for different plant functional types under future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species across two functional plant types, obligate seeder and facultative resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over 7000 km2 in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes under six different future climates representing different temperature and precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire management prioritisation for species into the future.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Ecography
Ecography 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
11.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
122
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: ECOGRAPHY publishes exciting, novel, and important articles that significantly advance understanding of ecological or biodiversity patterns in space or time. Papers focusing on conservation or restoration are welcomed, provided they are anchored in ecological theory and convey a general message that goes beyond a single case study. We encourage papers that seek advancing the field through the development and testing of theory or methodology, or by proposing new tools for analysis or interpretation of ecological phenomena. Manuscripts are expected to address general principles in ecology, though they may do so using a specific model system if they adequately frame the problem relative to a generalized ecological question or problem. Purely descriptive papers are considered only if breaking new ground and/or describing patterns seldom explored. Studies focused on a single species or single location are generally discouraged unless they make a significant contribution to advancing general theory or understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes. Manuscripts merely confirming or marginally extending results of previous work are unlikely to be considered in Ecography. Papers are judged by virtue of their originality, appeal to general interest, and their contribution to new developments in studies of spatial and temporal ecological patterns. There are no biases with regard to taxon, biome, or biogeographical area.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信