Advances in Space Research最新文献

{"title":"Ionospheric signatures from 2 years continuous monitoring of the equatorial ionosphere over Nigeria with HF Doppler sounder","authors":"B. Olugbon ,&nbsp;E.O. Oyeyemi ,&nbsp;A. Kashcheyev ,&nbsp;A.B. Rabiu ,&nbsp;A.A. Obafaye","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A receiver that measures and logs Doppler shifts of high frequency (HF) radio signals reflected from the ionosphere was installed in Lagos (geographic: 6.48°N, 3.27°E; dip latitude −4.66°), Nigeria in March 2011. However, continuous monitoring of the ionosphere was facilitated by the installation of a transmitter in Abuja (geographic: 8.99°N, 7.39°E; dip latitude 1.01°), Nigeria in July 2019, dedicated to transmitting HF signals for this remote sensing system. This provided the opportunity to study ionospheric signatures in HF Doppler data obtained from an equatorial location. This paper presents a summary of key findings from analysis of data from the instrument during the first 28 months of operation from July 2019 to November 2021. In this work, a statistical analysis of two main daytime features in the Doppler data is presented. The first feature is irregularities that appear as spreading of the Doppler trace, while the second feature is wave structures consistent with travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). In order to highlight trends in the data, the events were separated into morning (occurring from sunrise to 1159 LT) and afternoon (occurring from 1200 LT to sunset) events. The results showed that occurrences of either type of features were more frequent during the afternoon compared with morning hours. The occurrences of irregularities that appeared as a spread in the Doppler trace peaked in the month of July in the morning, while, in the afternoon these occurrences peaked in the month of March. The duration of most of these irregularities was ≥60 min. A peak in occurrences of TIDs was observed in the morning and afternoon epochs during the March equinox. It was also observed that over 80 % of occurrences of spreading in the Doppler trace during the equinoxes were associated with the occurrences of TIDs. In the month of July, despite a paucity of TIDs, there was a peak in occurrences of spreading in the Doppler trace. Overall, the lowest number of occurrences of both types of features was recorded in the month of August. Detailed analysis of selected events showed that the morning occurrences of spreading in the Doppler trace were mostly remnants of post-midnight spread F, while the afternoon occurrences were due to either TIDs or severe E-layer irregularities. The results from this study show the potential of the low-cost HF Doppler instrument as a real-time monitor of space weather activity at equatorial latitudes. However, further work will be required to establish what percentage of daytime spreading in the F-layer is caused by the remnants of nocturnal plasma bubbles, TIDs, or irregularities in the E-layer.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Two sunspot group populations and Gnevyshev-Waldmeier rule","authors":"Yury A. Nagovitsyn ,&nbsp;Aleksandra A. Osipova ,&nbsp;Sofia N. Fedoseeva","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the materials of the Royal Greenwich Observatory catalog, the study of two different sunspot group populations continued: LLG – large long-lived, and SSG – small short-lived groups. The task of achieving a higher accuracy of the population separation parameter than before (Nagovitsyn &amp; Pevtsov 2016, 2021) is being solved. A procedure for randomizing the lifetimes of sunspot groups observed once a day is proposed, which allows for statistical studies to achieve a higher time resolution. The form of the Gnevyshev-Waldmeier Rule is taken, which linearly connects the logarithm of the <span><math><mrow><mi>log</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span> area and the lifetime of the sunspot group <em>LT</em> (over limited time intervals). It is shown that it has coefficients significantly different for SSG and LLG populations. The range of values of the group lifetime parameter separating the populations was found as <span><math><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>LT</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup><mo>=</mo><mn>4.75</mn><mo>±</mo><mn>0.53</mn></mrow></math></span> days, which is in agreement with the threshold values obtained earlier for the number of days of sunspot group observation: <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>SSG</mi></mrow></msub><mo>⩽</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></math></span> days and <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>LLG</mi></mrow></msub><mo>&gt;</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></math></span> days. It is shown that the parameters of the bilognormal distribution of the sunspot group areas, obtained from their common grouped sample statistically by Levenberg–Marquardt method and with a preliminary division into lognormal distributions by lifetime, correspond to each other. It was clarified that, with an accuracy of up to a tenth of a day, the SSG population corresponds to the lifetimes of groups <span><math><mrow><mo>⩽</mo><mn>4.6</mn></mrow></math></span> days, and the LLG population corresponds to times <span><math><mrow><mo>⩾</mo><mn>4.7</mn></mrow></math></span> days. The results obtained make it possible to study various physical properties of SSG and LLG populations independently of each other in order to compare them and study their nature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entry trajectory optimization of lifting-body vehicle by successive difference-of-convex programming","authors":"Zexiao Deng ,&nbsp;Luhua Liu ,&nbsp;Yujia Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The complexity of the three-dimensional entry trajectory optimization problem has escalated due to the need to liberalize the angle of attack and bank angle as control variables, thereby enhancing the inherent maneuverability and control capabilities of lifting-body vehicles. The difference-of-convex (DC) properties inherent in the constraints of the problem are exploited in this paper. A DC decomposition approach is utilized to address the nonlinear auxiliary control equations, and the DC relaxation technique is applied to resolve iteration infeasibilities arising from Taylor expansion. The dependence on the initial trajectory is diminished by the implementation of an exact penalty method, thus improving the applicability of the methods. Furthermore, a control variable oscillation suppression mechanism has been constructed to tackle the control variable oscillation issues arising from the relaxation of the angle of attack and bank angle. This mechanism effectively suppresses large jumps in the angle of attack and high-frequency oscillations in the bank angle. Two novel successive DC programming methods are proposed: the successive concave-convex procedure and the successive proximal bundle method, functioning independently of trust-region constraints. Numerical experiments have demonstrated that the two proposed successive DC optimization methods exhibit exceptional performance in accuracy, feasibility, adaptability, and low sensitivity to initial values when applied to solving the three-dimensional entry trajectory optimization problem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discovered a new open cluster near the poorly studied Majaess 190","authors":"A.L. Tadross","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present the results of a comprehensive astrophysical study of a newly discovered open cluster, dubbed Ash-1. Using the third data release of the Gaia space mission, Gaia DR3, Ash-1 was accidentally discovered within the constellation Sagittarius in the field of the poorly studied cluster Majaess 190. Here we present the first estimates of these two clusters’ primary astrophysical properties. The membership probabilities &gt; 0.50 were assigned to both clusters using the pyUPMASK technique. The distances were determined using the parallaxes of the clusters’ members, which were consistent with the isochrone fitting of the color-magnitude diagrams. The ages and distances of Majaess 190 and Ash-1 are found to be 4 ± 0.05 Gyr and 630 ± 20 Myr; 2130 and 1360 (±80) pc, respectively. The extinctions, heliocentric distances, mass function, luminosity function, and overall masses of the studied clusters were also computed. Based on the relaxation times, it appears that both clusters are in a state of dynamic relaxation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of long-term and short-term bankline stability prediction considering seasonal variations: A study in lower Ganga Basin, India","authors":"Sk Asraful Alam,&nbsp;Ramkrishna Maiti","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>River bank instability in the lower Ganga plain has been a major concern since the early 1850s due to its huge catchment flux and transboundary character, especially in the districts of Malda and Murshidabad. This study examines the seasonal dynamics of banklines in the upper and lower Farakka regions. The study assesses seasonal changes in the lower Ganga regions over 68 years (1955–2022) and projects trends for the next 22 years (2022–2044) using a GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) approach. Long-term erosion prevails on the left bank at −19.38 ± 2.83 m yr^-1 (LRR method), with 38.61 % of transects showing a significant (p &lt; 0.05) erosional rate, covering 58.85 % of total erosional transects. The right bank experiences accretion at a rate of 6.82 ± 2.83 m yr^-1, with 27.66 % of transects showing a significant erosional rate, covering 46.10 % of total erosional transects. Short-term fluctuations show erosion-accretion values surpassing the 50 % threshold, highlighting dominant erosion in 1975–1980 and 1985–2015. The non-cyclic erosion-accretion nature unveils erosional processes in 1975–2000 and 2010–2015 and accretional processes in 2000–2010 and 2015–2021 on the right bank during the monsoon season. The dynamics of the projected bank lines exhibit an accretional tendency over the right bank and an erosional trend over the left. Moreover, a strong correlation between the actual and expected bank lines is shown by the <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>2</mn></msup></math></span> value surpassing 0.95 for all seasons on both the left and right banks. The erosional trends are evident in Chachunda at a rate of −152.45 ± 198.92 m yr^-1, while Loharpur and Shikdarpur exhibit erosional rates of −237.88 ± 211.30 m yr^-1 and −243.59 ± 207.91 m yr^-1, respectively, in the lower Farakka. The seasonal long-term and short-term analyses are influenced by various forcing mechanisms like high sediment flux, enormous discharge, and drastic anthropogenic intervention that drives changing foci of erosion and accretion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142655666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity analysis of cumulus parameterization scheme and data sources to simulate thunderstorms over Bangladesh using WRF model","authors":"M. Mozammel Hoque ,&nbsp;Md. Salah Uddin Afsar ,&nbsp;Mohammad Rashed Iqbal Faruque ,&nbsp;S. Jamal Ahmed ,&nbsp;A.T.M. Kaosar Jamil ,&nbsp;M.A.K. Mallik ,&nbsp;S.M. Quamrul Hassan","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To optimize weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, a sensitivity analysis has been performed for test thunderstorm events to determine the best combination of cumulus physics (CU) and data source options to be used for simulating thunderstorms over Bangladesh. Six combinations for three cumulus physics options namely, Kain-Fritsch Scheme (KF) (CU-1), Betts-Miller-Janjic Scheme (BMJ) (CU-2) and Grell-Dévényi (GD) Ensemble Scheme (CU-3) and two different data sources namely, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) data have been used for this purpose. WRF model has been run on a single domain of 9 km horizontal resolution utilizing the combinations of these cumulus physics and six hourly GFS/FNL datasets for 48 h; from 0000 UTC of 14 May 2017 to 0000 UTC of 16 May 2017 and from 0000 UTC of 29 March 2018 to 0000 UTC of 31 March 2018 as initial and lateral boundary conditions for test event-1 and test event-2 respectively. Model simulated output for rainfall, relative humidity; mean sea level pressure and temperature have been compared with the observed data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Then absolute error of each simulated parameter has been calculated. On the basis of root mean square error (RMSE) for each parameter, better cumulus physics and data source combination has been selected. It is found that, CU-1 and GFS dataset combination exhibits less RMS error in 4 sections out of 12 sections for event-1 and in 5 sections out of 12 sections for event-2. So, it may be expected that Cu_1 and GFS dataset combination may be used for simulating thunderstorm over Bangladesh. After finalizing model physics options and data sets, another test case of TS has been simulated and different parameters are analyzed for justification of WRF setup. It is found that WRF model captured MSLP, temperature and relative humidity very well. But in case of rainfall the simulated value is much smaller than the observed value. For more accuracy more case studies may be carried out including for fair weather days as well as severe TS days.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validation of the NeQuick model, Ensemble Kalman filter and SMART+ based estimations of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere","authors":"Tatjana Gerzen ,&nbsp;David Minkwitz ,&nbsp;Michael Schmidt ,&nbsp;Sergei Rudenko","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we analyse the performance of an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach, the simultaneous multiplicative column normalized method SMART+ and the NeQuick model to estimate the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. The slant total electron content (STEC) measurements of 11 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are used as input for the EnKF and SMART+ to update the NeQuick model which serves as background model.</div><div>Our comparative case study is implemented globally for altitudes between 430 and 20 200 km for two periods of the year 2015 covering moderate to perturbed ionospheric conditions.</div><div>The performance of the methods is investigated regarding their capability to reproduce electron densities. For that purpose, the independent electron density measurements of the Van Allen Probes (VAP) twin satellites, Swarm Langmuir Probes (LP) and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) profiles serve as reference.</div><div>The results reveal that in median the NeQuick model underestimates the IRO electron densities in the moderate period and for high latitudes in the perturbed period. For the NeQuick model the median of the absolute relative residuals is about 33 % in the moderate period and around 25 % in the perturbed period. SMART+ reduces these residuals to about 24 % and 23 %, respectively, whereas EnKF doesn’t provide an improvement.</div><div>The validation with VAP electron densities shows that in both periods and for all altitudes, the electron densities provided by the NeQuick model, the EnKF and SMART+ are in general significantly lower than the VAP measurements with a median of the relative residuals equal to about 80 %. The lowest median and RMS values of the VAP residuals are produces by EnKF, reducing the NeQuick statistics by up to 9 %.</div><div>Further we observe that the electron densities provided by the NeQuick model are in median lower than the calibrated LP in-situ measurements for all three Swarm satellites in the moderate period and higher in the perturbed period. SMART+ shows the lowest median and standard deviation for the absolute relative residuals. These are up to 20 % lower than for the NeQuick model. For the LP in-situ measurements, the EnKF has the worst performance.</div><div>Overall, the results underpin that even though the data of 11 satellite missions has been assimilated to adjust the a priori information of the NeQuick model, only limited improvements can be achieved especially for the plasmasphere.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The regional characteristics of the occurrence rate of ionospheric anomalies in 2011–2018","authors":"Fanfan Su ,&nbsp;Jian Yang ,&nbsp;Liangchen Hu ,&nbsp;Fuying Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the regional characteristics of the occurrence rate of ionospheric anomalies of total electron content derived from global position system (GPS) observations. The area of concern spans 70° of longitude, from 70° E to 140° E, and 40° of latitude, from 15° N to 55° N. We introduced the 27 days moving window method to automatically detect anomalies that are caused by various sources. The spatial, diurnal, seasonal, and yearly distribution of the occurrence rate of extreme anomalies in 2011–2018 were provided. The spatial distribution of the occurrence rates of positive and negative anomalies had clear patterns in latitude and it did not change much in longitude at a certain local time over this area. The occurrence rates of positive and negative anomalies at the middle latitudes had significantly different diurnal variations from those at low latitudes. The maximum and minimum of the occurrence rates of positive anomalies occurred at about 17:00 local time (LT) and about 13:00 LT over the region from 36° N to 45° N. The maximum and minimum of the occurrence rates of negative anomalies in the same area occurred at about 07:00 LT and 18:00 LT over the region from 36° N to 45° N. There was no clear pattern in the seasonal variations of occurrence rates of positive and negative anomalies over [70° E-140° E, 15° N-55° N] in 2011–2018. The mean O/N2 had low values in summer and comparable high values in other seasons in 2015, and the O/N2 may not be the main reason for irregular seasonal characteristics of occurrence rate of anomalies. The occurrence rates of positive and negative anomaly in the year when the F10.7 index is relatively low, such as 2018, may be larger than the occurrence rates in the year with relatively large F10.7 index, such as 2014.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142186637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel PCA-based model stacking approach","authors":"Amirreza Shojaeian ,&nbsp;Hossein Shafizadeh-Moghadam ,&nbsp;Ahmad Sharafati ,&nbsp;Himan Shahabi","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces an efficient methodology for model stacking, incorporating six diverse machine learning and statistical models alongside principal component analysis (PCA). The approach is applied for the flash flood susceptibility mapping within the Karkheh Basin in Iran. The selected models include random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN), generalized additive model (GAM), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), with RF also serving as the <em>meta</em>-model for the stacking. The results revealed significant correlations among the predictions of the individual models, which could potentially impact the <em>meta</em>-model’s efficacy. To address this, PCA was applied to the model predictions to generate de-correlated components as inputs for the <em>meta</em>-model, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy and robustness. Evaluation based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve demonstrated that the GAM outperformed all other individual models with the highest accuracy score of 0.924. In contrast, the RF and ANN models had the lowest accuracy, both registering at 0.872. However, the performance disparity across models was minimal. Notably, the PCA-based stacking approach (0.936) surpassed both traditional model stacking (0.912) and the performances of all individual models, advocating for its use in enhancing predictive accuracy. These findings endorse the PCA-stacking method over conventional stacking techniques. Nonetheless, further research across varied applications is warranted to generalize its efficacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142655665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide susceptibility prediction based on landform predisposing indexes − An example from the Beiluo River Basin","authors":"Fan Liu ,&nbsp;Tianyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yahong Deng ,&nbsp;Faqiao Qian ,&nbsp;Nan Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Beiluo River basin, which flows through the central part of the Loess Plateau, has experienced intense soil erosion and significant geomorphic change, which has provided favorable conditions for the occurrence of a large number of landslides. Landform indexes, which can express geomorphologic development state and internal rules, can transfer the development process information of surface morphology into the evaluation of landslide susceptibility, and help get more accurate landslide susceptibility prediction results. Taking the Beiluo River Basin as an example, a landslide susceptibility prediction model based on landform index is proposed by comparing the importance of landform index. In order to improve the accuracy of LSP, 10 kinds of general predictors indexes, 5 kinds of landform predisposing indexes and 1821 landslide points were compiled, and the geographic information system of Beiluo River Basin was constructed. Through the correlation test and CF model, the environmental indexes were evaluated to obtain the sensitive index results, and the combination of different environmental predictors indexes were classified according to the sensitive index results. Based on the combined classification results, the Max Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to evaluate the Landslide susceptibility prediction (LSP), while the calculated results were evaluated and compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and landslide density. The results show that the vertical erosion factor, elevation, rainfall, horizontal erosion factor, slope angle and NDVI play a key role in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides in the study area. At the same time, the accuracy of landslide susceptibility is compared by AUC value. According to the calculation results, the Group5 (AUC = 0.803) with reasonable terrain index performs better in the training and test stages, and the relative accuracy is improved by 6.22 % compared with the non-introduction of terrain index and the omission rate difference is the best (omission rate difference = 0.0005), indicating that the introduction of landform index can effectively improve the landslide susceptibility prediction. The distribution of different sensitive areas was observed. The high sensitive areas and very high sensitive areas are mainly distributed in the southern Luochuan loess tableland and the northern Wuqi loess hilly area. The research results provide a scientific basis for landslide susceptibility prediction with rational introduction of landform indexes and regional infrastructure construction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142655667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}