Advances in Space Research最新文献_第6页

A new high-precision short-term ionospheric TEC prediction model based on the DBO-BiLSTM algorithm: A case study of Europe 基于DBO-BiLSTM算法的高精度短期电离层TEC预测新模型——以欧洲为例

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.012

Qiaoli Kong , Yunqing Huang , Xiaolong Mi , Qi Bai , Jingwei Han , Yanfei Chen , Shi Wang

{"title":"A new high-precision short-term ionospheric TEC prediction model based on the DBO-BiLSTM algorithm: A case study of Europe","authors":"Qiaoli Kong , Yunqing Huang , Xiaolong Mi , Qi Bai , Jingwei Han , Yanfei Chen , Shi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In order to achieve high accuracy of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) short-term prediction for Europe, a hybrid novel deep learning model was established applying the dung beetle optimizer (DBO) algorithm to optimize the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network, named DBO-BiLSTM. For evaluating the TEC prediction accuracy of DBO-BiLSTM model, the TEC predicted by this model was compared with TEC computed using GPS observation released by the European Permanent Global Navigation Satellite System network (EPGNSS), and with those predicted by the sparrow search algorithm-based BiLSTM (SSA-BiLSTM), BiLSTM, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models. The test results indicate that the predicted TEC by DBO-BiLSTM has the closest agreement with those solved by GPS data compared with those predicted by the other three models, and the prediction accuracy achieved by DBO-BiLSTM model is the highest with the root mean square error (RMSE) values of 1-h and 2-h predictions reaching 0.57 TECU and 0.92 TECU, respectively. What’s more, the optimized hybrid DBO-BiLSTM model can effectively capture the ionospheric characteristics with the spatial-temperal changes, under quiet and moderate disturbed geomagnetic conditions, and during moderate solar activity period. This research provides a valuable hybrid DBO-BiLSTM model for high accuracy short-term prediction of ionospheric TEC for Europe, and gives an important reference for the further comprehensive TEC prediction under more sever disturbed geomagnetic conditions and more violent solar activity periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7726-7738"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comparative analysis of the implementation of international space law by states for the sustainability of outer space activities 各国为外层空间活动的可持续性执行国际空间法的比较分析

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.011

Merve Erdem Burger

{"title":"A comparative analysis of the implementation of international space law by states for the sustainability of outer space activities","authors":"Merve Erdem Burger","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sustainability of outer space activities encompasses the policy, regulatory, operational, safety, scientific, technical, international cooperation, and capacity-building aspects as defined in the Guidelines for the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities (LTS Guidelines). Regarding the regulatory aspect, the adoption, revision, and modification of national regulatory frameworks, namely the implementation of international space law, is one of the elements to ensure the sustainability of outer space activities.</div><div>This study examines the sustainability of outer space activities by focusing on the implementation of international space law through a comparative analysis. To this end, I examine the national laws of states conducting satellite activities in Earth orbit before and after the adoption of the LTS Guidelines in 2019. Specifically, I examine whether states have adopted legislative acts to fulfill their obligations under the United Nations Outer Space Treaties, particularly the Outer Space Treaty’s Article on the International Responsibility of States for Outer Space Activities, the establishment of a national registration system from the Registration Convention, and the voluntary commitments from the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines.</div><div>In the end, this study aims to discover the evolution of sustainability of space activities from a regulatory perspective before and after 2019 in order to discuss the way forward for the LTS Guidelines and the sustainability of outer space activities in general.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7576-7588"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cross-equatorial travelling ionospheric disturbances and changes in background ionospheric densities over Indian longitudes during geomagnetic storm of 20–21 December 2015 2015年12月20-21日地磁暴期间印度经度电离层扰动及背景密度变化

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.066

Sovan Saha , Duggirala Pallamraju , Sunil Kumar , V.Lakshmi Narayanan , Surendra Sunda

{"title":"Cross-equatorial travelling ionospheric disturbances and changes in background ionospheric densities over Indian longitudes during geomagnetic storm of 20–21 December 2015","authors":"Sovan Saha , Duggirala Pallamraju , Sunil Kumar , V.Lakshmi Narayanan , Surendra Sunda","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geomagnetic disturbances modify the ionospheric densities and composition following the neutral and electrodynamic processes globally. Wave-like perturbations can be generated at the high latitudes due to enhanced energy deposition through the particle precipitation and auroral heating. They can propagate through the ionospheric medium which is known as travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). In this study, we have investigated the changes in the background ionospheric densities and a large-scale TID (LSTID) using the measurements of OI 630.0 nm nightglow emissions, altitudinal profiles of ionospheric electron densities, and Total Electron Content (TEC) during a major geomagnetic storm on 20 December 2015. Wave-like variations in OI 630.0 nm nightglow emission intensities with a period of around 2–3 h were observed on 20–21 December 2015 over Mt. Abu, a low-latitude location over Indian longitudes. The F-layer peak heights and critical frequencies exhibit similar periodic variations. Signature of LSTIDs was studied using the TEC variation obtained from 12 available International GNSS Service (IGS) stations located in the Indian and Australian longitudinal regions. It has been found that the LSTIDs originated in the Australian latitudes, propagated towards and crossed the equator, and then dissipated while moving further northwards. Further, the roles of the equatorial electrodynamics, O/N<sub>2</sub>, and interhemispheric wind, responsible for the modification of the background ionospheric densities, are also discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7696-7710"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characteristics of collinear points in the elliptic restricted three-body problem with oblateness, radiation and Poynting-Robertson drag 具有扁率、辐射和Poynting-Robertson阻力的椭圆型受限三体问题中共线点的特征

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.010

Jagadish Singh , Blessing Samuel Ashagwu

{"title":"Characteristics of collinear points in the elliptic restricted three-body problem with oblateness, radiation and Poynting-Robertson drag","authors":"Jagadish Singh , Blessing Samuel Ashagwu","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper deals with the motion of a body of infinitesimal mass (third body) around collinear equilibrium points in the elliptic restricted three-body problem (ER3BP) whose massive bodies (primaries) are oblate and luminous together with Poynting-Robertson (P-R) drag. The effects of the oblateness, radiation pressure and P-R drag of the primaries and the eccentricity and semi-major axis of the orbits on the positions and stability of collinear points are examined analytically and numerically. It is observed that due to the presence of P-R drags, a new collinear point <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>L</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></math></span> exists apart from classical collinear points <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>L</mi><mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow><mo>,</mo><mn>3</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>. Various trends of shifts in the positions of these points are observed. The stability of these points is demonstrated by the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and it is found that they are all unstable. The numerical explorations conducted for the binary systems 61 Cygni and Archird also reveal how the involved parameters affect the positions and stability of these points and conformity with the analytical results obtained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7407-7423"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of thermo-opto-mechanical system and stress birefringence in elastically bonded optics for space applications 空间用弹性键合光学热-光-机械系统及应力双折射分析

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.008

F. Maamar, O. Mertad, A. Mankour

{"title":"Analysis of thermo-opto-mechanical system and stress birefringence in elastically bonded optics for space applications","authors":"F. Maamar, O. Mertad, A. Mankour","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optomechanical systems are often required to function over a broad temperature range, which can significantly influence their performance. In this paper, we explore how temperature fluctuations affect typical optomechanical systems and investigate the thermal stresses induced by continuous edge, six-point contact, and face elastomeric bonds using analytical methods and finite element analysis (FEA). Additionally, the finite element method obtains thermoelastic stress analysis. In Ansys software, an optomechanical system with thermal loads accurately calculate the thermal strain and radial stress. We derived analytical equations for thermalized edge bond thickness and thermoelastic stress analysis, including thermal stress, thermal strain, radial stress, and thermal optical path difference (OPD). Thermal stress birefringence (OPD) varies with temperature and can lead to thermo-optic distortion, presenting serious challenges for high-resolution optical systems, particularly in diffraction-limited systems, where maintaining Rayleigh criteria is crucial. The primary objective of this research is to validate and evaluate an optimized configuration of the optomechanical assembly for the Alsat-1B satellite payload, aiming to minimize thermal stress and stress-induced birefringence. Our analysis confirms that the proposed analytical solutions exhibit low estimation errors for thermal stresses when compared to finite element analysis. Moreover, when the optical path difference (OPD) is maintained well below the standard quarter-wave diffraction tolerance, these solutions become valuable tools for decision-makers and optical engineers in the development of spaceborne optomechanical systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7551-7564"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of BDS-2 satellite flex power on daily DCB estimation BDS-2卫星挠性功率对日DCB估计的影响

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.009

Tiancheng Liu , Aochuan Zhang , Shun Lu , Shuhui Li , Zhou Wu

{"title":"Effects of BDS-2 satellite flex power on daily DCB estimation","authors":"Tiancheng Liu , Aochuan Zhang , Shun Lu , Shuhui Li , Zhou Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) is equipped with the flex power function to improve the anti-jamming capability of signals. Flex power can impact differential code biases (DCBs), and further affect navigation and positioning. Therefore, it is important to study the effects of a flex power on DCB estimation. In this paper, we used flex power detector (FPD) algorithm to detect flex power and found that there was a total of nine BDS-2 satellite flex power events during 2020–2023. Among these nine events, flex power of Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO) satellites was turned on most frequently and stepwise changes around 3–10 dB were visible in carrier-to-noise density ratio (C/N<sub>0</sub>) observation S6I. We estimated C2I-C6I DCBs considering flex power. By comparing DCB estimates in flex power periods with those in non-flex power periods, the impacts of flex power on DCB estimation can be examined. The results show that the effects of BDS-2 satellite flex power on DCB estimation are different in different satellite types, which is 4.66 ns, 12.43 ns, 15.76 ns for Geostationary Orbit (GEO), IGSO and Middle Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites, respectively. Also, it is worth mentioning that DCB estimation values considering flex power are different from DCB values of IGS daily products. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effects of flex power on DCB estimation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7565-7575"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024 2014 - 2024年群卫星磁场和TEC数据与M4+地震的全球相关性

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065

Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali , Carlos Molina , Hyuk Park , Adriano Camps

{"title":"Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024","authors":"Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali , Carlos Molina , Hyuk Park , Adriano Camps","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 50 and 80 earthquakes are recorded daily, resulting in over 20,000 yearly seismic events. Currently, no reliable earthquake precursors can provide an early warning. Still, research has inspected anomalies in the Magnetic Field Vector over the Y-axis (MFV-Y) and Total Electron Content (TEC) as possible precursors of upcoming seismic activity. This study has employed a large global dataset of MFV-Y and TEC data acquired from Swarm satellites between 2014 and 2024 to analyze ionospheric anomalies in earthquake-affected areas. More than 200,000 earthquakes with magnitudes M4+ and within ± 60° latitude have been studied. The Swarm data were compared with physical models, notably, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), at the exact locations and times to pinpoint anomalies through the Root Mean Square Error Difference (RMSD) in the time series. This research marks the first use of the Confusion Matrix (CM), Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC), and various other Figures of Merit (FoM) to assess and try to improve the performance of the methodologies employed and to find the optimal configuration conditions for serving as proxies for earthquake forecasting. As a result, positive anomalies in MFV-Y and TEC were identified 1 to 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7589-7609"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigation of X-ray emission from the unidentified TeV gamma-ray source HESS J1832–085 with Suzaku 未知TeV伽玛射线源HESS J1832-085与Suzaku的x射线发射研究

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.064

Ebru Aktekin

{"title":"Investigation of X-ray emission from the unidentified TeV gamma-ray source HESS J1832–085 with Suzaku","authors":"Ebru Aktekin","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Observations conducted with H.E.S.S. at high energies have led to the discovery of numerous gamma-ray sources in the Galactic plane at TeV energies. One of these sources, HESS J1832–085, has been suggested to be a pulsar wind nebula (PWN); however, its nature is not yet fully understood. In this work, we analyze <em>Suzaku</em> data to investigate the X-ray spectral properties of HESS J1832–085. We found that the X-ray spectra are highly absorbed and well-represented by a power-law model with a photon index of <span><math><mrow><mi>Γ</mi><mo>∼</mo><mn>1.5</mn></mrow></math></span>, and an unabsorbed X-ray flux of <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>F</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow></msub><mo>∼</mo><mn>0.3</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn>11</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> erg cm<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> in the 2–10 keV energy band. The gamma-ray flux is approximately 66 times higher than the X-ray flux. Based on our X-ray analysis, we discuss the origin of the source HESS J1832–085. We propose that the PWN scenario is possible, although several issues still need to be resolved.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7751-7756"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A GNSS PPP integrity monitoring algorithm based on ARKF and MHSS 基于ARKF和MHSS的GNSS PPP完整性监测算法

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.004

Ershen Wang , Tengli Yu , Xinhui Sun , Pingping Qu , Tingyu Chen , Xuebao Hong , Song Xu , Zexin Liu

{"title":"A GNSS PPP integrity monitoring algorithm based on ARKF and MHSS","authors":"Ershen Wang , Tengli Yu , Xinhui Sun , Pingping Qu , Tingyu Chen , Xuebao Hong , Song Xu , Zexin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Satellite navigation integrity monitoring techniques are essential to ensure navigation safety in aviation. The availability of precise point positioning (PPP) integrity monitoring is challenged by the introduction of hazardously misleading information (HMI) influenced by receiver measurement noise as well as complex application scenarios. Aiming at this problem, this study proposed a PPP integrity monitoring algorithm based on adaptive robust Kalman filter and multiple hypothesis solution separation (ARKF-MHSS). It fully integrates the robustness and adaptivity of ARKF with the fault detection and processing capability of MHSS, and introduces an equivalent covariance matrix to reduce the influence of observation noise on the position solution results, which effectively improves the availability of PPP integrity monitoring in complex environments. The effectiveness of the ARKF-MHSS algorithm in airborne PPP scenarios is fully verified by conducting static evaluations based on InternationalGNSSService (IGS) stations and dynamic evaluations based on general aviation flight tests. The experimental results show that in the static test, the stricter the alert limit (AL), the more significant the improvement of the ARKF-MHSS algorithm. When the HAL is set to 3 m and 2.5 m, the average improvement in availability is 0.43 % and 13.13 %, respectively. In the flight test, the algorithm can effectively meet the positioning performance requirements of the LPV-200 (Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance) approach phase, and the availability reaches 100 %. In the Category I precision approach (CAT-I) phase (VAL = 10 m), the availability reaches 98.2 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7397-7406"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers of wildfire spatial expansion: Modeling insights from semi-arid oak forests of W Iran 野火空间扩展的驱动因素：来自伊朗西部半干旱栎林的建模见解

IF 2.8 3区地球科学

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.002

Akram Sadeghi , Mozhgan Ahmadi Nadoushan , Naser Ahmadi Sani

{"title":"Drivers of wildfire spatial expansion: Modeling insights from semi-arid oak forests of W Iran","authors":"Akram Sadeghi , Mozhgan Ahmadi Nadoushan , Naser Ahmadi Sani","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asr.2025.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires are becoming increasingly recurrent in Iran, threatening vulnerable ecosystems, particularly the non-fire-adapted semi-arid oak forests in the western regions. This study investigates the environmental drivers influencing wildfire size in these forests, focusing on the years 2018–2020. To analyze the environmental drivers, a circular buffer of 314 ha was applied around each wildfire location, enabling the collection of predictive variables through remote sensing and in-situ measurements across three categories: topography, climate, and vegetation. Employing a non-linear Generalized Additive Model (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.822, explained deviance = 75.9 %), Land Surface Temperature (LST) emerged as the most significant factor in determining wildfire size, exhibiting a robust correlation with larger and faster-spreading fires. Furthermore, steep slopes and high-speed winds were associated with larger wildfires, enabling rapid fire spread and upslope progression. Wildfires were largest in areas with spatially consistent vegetation cover and peaked in April and May due to warmer temperatures and lower humidity. These findings underscore the need for the development of more proactive, adaptive, and effective strategies, ultimately reducing the toll of the destructive impacts on the integrity of these forests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"75 10","pages":"Pages 7184-7194"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143907541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0