Maxime Beauchamp, Bertrand Bessagnet, Enrico Pisoni, Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexander de Meij, Philippe Thunis
{"title":"Enhancing Air Quality Simulations With Neural Downscaling Architectures","authors":"Maxime Beauchamp, Bertrand Bessagnet, Enrico Pisoni, Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexander de Meij, Philippe Thunis","doi":"10.1002/asl.70003","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>High-resolution air pollution datasets are crucial for exposure assessment and policy support but are computationally demanding to produce with traditional models. We present a machine learning-based framework for spatial downscaling of chemistry-transport model outputs from 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution over a large European domain. The model is trained on base case simulations and validated across multiple emission scenarios and temporal scales. Results show good performance in reproducing both absolute concentrations and scenario-induced differences. Applying the model to monthly-averaged fields offers a computationally efficient solution, supporting rapid scenario analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.70003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang
{"title":"Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints","authors":"Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Debris flows are one of the most destructive mass-movement processes. Previous studies have shown that debris-flow occurrence may be related to antecedent higher temperatures or droughts, yet a comprehensive and objective regional understanding is still lacking. Here we integrated meteorological reanalysis with remotely-sensed soil moisture products to investigate the hydrometeorological conditions preceding debris flows in Sichuan Province, Southwest China, during 2008–2018. Antecedent meteorological settings were classified into four characteristic patterns: “higher temperature with more rain”, “higher temperature with less rain”, “lower temperature with more rain”, and “lower temperature with less rain”. Approximately 80% of events occurred after anomalously high temperatures relative to climatology, highlighting a robust warming signal prior to debris-flow initiation. Although spatial heterogeneity existed, most events were concentrated in the mountainous areas surrounding the western Sichuan Basin. Soil was predominantly wet before events (96.6%), while only a minority of events were preceded by drought. These drought-related cases included both flash droughts (63%) and slowly-evolving droughts (37%), also clustered in the western Sichuan Basin. The results demonstrate that antecedent high temperatures and droughts can both facilitate debris-flow occurrence, and they provide new insights into how changing climate regimes may reshape debris-flow hazards in mountain regions worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Predictability of the Southern England 23 October 2022 Severe Downbursts","authors":"David L. A. Flack, Kenneth L. Pryor","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70024","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl2.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate prediction of damaging straight-line wind events from convective storms relies heavily on storm morphology and nowcasting. Utilising the Microburst Wind Potential Index in ensemble forecasts we examine the predictability of its different components for a damaging quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) on 23 October 2022 to determine their importance in quantifying downburst speed. Four regional model configurations of the Unified Model are used to show that the uncertainty in downburst speed equates to approximately 5 kn of spread in 13 h. This spread is dominated by uncertainty in the low-level vertical humidity gradient. The determination of the main source of spread provides valuable information to forecasters and consideration across multiple cases could lead to increased understanding of where the uncertainty in downbursts is derived from and thus improve warnings.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang
{"title":"Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints","authors":"Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70025","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Debris flows are one of the most destructive mass-movement processes. Previous studies have shown that debris-flow occurrence may be related to antecedent higher temperatures or droughts, yet a comprehensive and objective regional understanding is still lacking. Here we integrated meteorological reanalysis with remotely-sensed soil moisture products to investigate the hydrometeorological conditions preceding debris flows in Sichuan Province, Southwest China, during 2008–2018. Antecedent meteorological settings were classified into four characteristic patterns: “higher temperature with more rain”, “higher temperature with less rain”, “lower temperature with more rain”, and “lower temperature with less rain”. Approximately 80% of events occurred after anomalously high temperatures relative to climatology, highlighting a robust warming signal prior to debris-flow initiation. Although spatial heterogeneity existed, most events were concentrated in the mountainous areas surrounding the western Sichuan Basin. Soil was predominantly wet before events (96.6%), while only a minority of events were preceded by drought. These drought-related cases included both flash droughts (63%) and slowly-evolving droughts (37%), also clustered in the western Sichuan Basin. The results demonstrate that antecedent high temperatures and droughts can both facilitate debris-flow occurrence, and they provide new insights into how changing climate regimes may reshape debris-flow hazards in mountain regions worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Predictability of the Southern England 23 October 2022 Severe Downbursts","authors":"David L. A. Flack, Kenneth L. Pryor","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate prediction of damaging straight-line wind events from convective storms relies heavily on storm morphology and nowcasting. Utilising the Microburst Wind Potential Index in ensemble forecasts we examine the predictability of its different components for a damaging quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) on 23 October 2022 to determine their importance in quantifying downburst speed. Four regional model configurations of the Unified Model are used to show that the uncertainty in downburst speed equates to approximately 5 kn of spread in 13 h. This spread is dominated by uncertainty in the low-level vertical humidity gradient. The determination of the main source of spread provides valuable information to forecasters and consideration across multiple cases could lead to increased understanding of where the uncertainty in downbursts is derived from and thus improve warnings.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}