允许对流的气候预测对非洲城市规划可靠吗?约翰内斯堡案例研究

IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
William J. Keat, Chris J. Short, Elizabeth J. Kendon
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市特别容易受到地表水洪灾的影响。众所周知,城市本身也会影响当地降雨,这对城市适应气候变化的规划具有重要影响。在千米尺度分辨率下,对流允许气候模式(CPCMs)能更好地解析城市,并能更好地代表当地城市温度和降雨量的变化。然而,通过使用气象局统一模式(CP4)进行最先进的泛非 CPCM 模拟,我们发现南非约翰内斯堡市的情况并非如此。与周边农村地区相比,城市上空的降雨量明显增加,这在现有观测资料中是看不到的。我们证明这与高估的城市热岛效应有关,该效应导致额外的降雨触发。与周边地区的变化相比,城市对未来降雨量变化的影响较小,我们预计后者比参数化对流模型中的降雨量变化更为可靠。这表明,就未来降雨量变化的百分比而言,城市过程表示的不足是次要的。我们建议城市规划者在有观测数据的情况下,将 CP4 中的相对变化作为观测数据的提升,或者将未来降雨量的绝对值作为直接使用的上限估计值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Are convection-permitting climate projections reliable for urban planning over Africa? A case study of Johannesburg

Are convection-permitting climate projections reliable for urban planning over Africa? A case study of Johannesburg

Cities are particularly vulnerable to surface water flooding. It is also well-known that they influence local rainfall themselves, which has important implications for climate change adaptation planning for cities. At km-scale resolution, convection-permitting climate models (CPCMs) better resolve cities and should better represent local urban temperature and rainfall modifications. However, using state-of-the-art pan-African CPCM simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (CP4), we show that for the city of Johannesburg, South Africa, this is not the case. A significant enhancement of rainfall occurs over the city compared with surrounding rural areas, which is not seen in available observations. We demonstrate this is associated with an overestimated urban heat island effect, which leads to additional triggering of rainfall. Urban signals in future rainfall change are small compared with changes in the wider surroundings, the latter of which we expect to be more reliable than in models with parameterized convection. This suggests that deficiencies in representation of urban processes are of secondary importance in terms of future percentage change in rainfall. We recommend urban planners apply relative changes in CP4 as an uplift to observations, where available, or treat absolute future rainfall as an upper estimate if used directly.

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来源期刊
Atmospheric Science Letters
Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.30%
发文量
73
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
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