T. Shirai, Y. Enomoto, Masashi Watanabe, T. Arikawa
{"title":"Sensitivity analysis of the physics options in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for typhoon forecasting in Japan and its impacts on storm surge simulations","authors":"T. Shirai, Y. Enomoto, Masashi Watanabe, T. Arikawa","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2124040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2124040","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is useful for forecasting typhoons as an external force of storm surge forecasts. This study examines the variation in typhoon forecasts caused by different choices of arbitrary physics options in WRF and their influence on storm surge forecasts. Eight frequently used combinations of cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layers were extracted via a review of previous studies. Subsequently, sensitivity analyses of these physics options were performed, targeting nine typhoons that landed in Japan during 2015–2019. Additionally, we conducted case studies of storm surge ensemble forecasts in Tokyo Bay and Osaka Bay using WRF-simulated typhoons generated in the sensitivity analysis. As a result, the ensemble mean of the forecasts was comparable to the storm surge reanalysis simulation results obtained using an empirical typhoon model wherein the best track data is integrated to reproduce atmospheric fields. This may be attributed to the fact that the typhoon parameters (intensity, size, approaching angle, and velocity) obtained from the best track at landfall were generally within the range of the parameters that were simulated using WRF.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"506 - 532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42916988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sotaro Mori, T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, A. Webb, N. Mori
{"title":"Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia","authors":"Sotaro Mori, T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, A. Webb, N. Mori","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"630 - 647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43580654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantile regression analysis of time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in the west North Pacific basin under global warming","authors":"X. J. Wang, J. W. Yang, B. Huang, J. Cao","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2129516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2129516","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The enormous economic losses and casualties were caused by tropical cyclones in the southeast coastal areas of China every year. In order to understand the time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones (including intensity, minimum central atmosphere pressure, duration, and generation position) in the global and the western North Pacific basin, the monthly and interannual variation characteristics of tropical cyclones from 1949 to 2018 were analyzed by the quantile regression method and least square regression method. The results show that the global climate temperature and the annual maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones have a tendency to increase under different quantiles. While the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones generated in the WNP basin basically decreases with the increase of years in El Niño, La Niña, and normal years under different quantiles. It is obvious that the interannual variation of the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is affected by the ENSO events. Similarly, minimum central atmospheric pressure, duration, and generation position of TCs from 1949 to 2018 are also analyzed in the present study. The results of this study can provide an effective reference for data analysis and trend prediction of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"551 - 574"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43129448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hydrodynamic characteristics of emerged modular porous reef breakwaters","authors":"V. K. Srineash, K. Murali","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2143322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2143322","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The wave interaction with porous reef breakwaters is investigated in this study through extensive laboratory experiments. The research is focussed on bringing out the hydrodynamic characteristics, such as wave transmission and wave reflection coefficient of reef breakwaters in emerged conditions. Design equations for estimating the transmission and reflection coefficients for emerged porous reef breakwaters are presented. The developed equations will be beneficial in deciding the dimension of the reef breakwaters for a given wave condition. The presence of Reef-Induced wave Breaking (RIB) was observed for certain combination of wave and reef parameters. The effects of hydrodynamic processes observed during the study, namely, RIB and overtopping in relation to the performance of the emerged porous reef breakwaters is discussed. Furthermore, the wave-induced pressures exerted over the reef breakwaters are measured on the seaside, leeside and at the midsection of the reef breakwater. A thorough analysis has been carried out to ascertain the magnitudes of hydrodynamic pressures which has got an important bearing in understanding the magnitude of wave induced forces on the reef breakwaters. Through detailed parametric investigations, the study brings out the parameters that govern the hydrodynamic performance and wave-induced pressures over the emerged reef breakwaters.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"597 - 618"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41589912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stochastic source modeling and tsunami simulations of cascadia subduction earthquakes for Canadian Pacific coast","authors":"K. Goda","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2139918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2139918","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study presents new stochastic source models for the Cascadia subduction earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, which can trigger massive tsunamis along the shoreline of Vancouver Island. An extensive set of 5,000 stochastic source models is generated for the moment magnitude ranges between 8.1 and 9.1, and regional tsunami hazard simulations are performed at the grid resolution of 270 m. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations are characterized by evaluating the regional tsunami hazard metric that is based on the geometric mean of the maximum wave heights along the Vancouver Island coast. Subsequently, using the probability distribution of the regional tsunami hazard parameter, representative source models are identified by capturing the average as well as rare rupture cases and then detailed tsunami hazard results, such as maximum wave height maps and wave profiles at specific locations, are examined. Numerical results highlight the directivity effects of tsunami generation and wave propagation on tsunami hazards along the Canadian Pacific coast and the earthquake source characterizations in terms of fault geometry and earthquake slip distribution. The developed source models and tsunami simulation results serve as the first step for performing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Cascadia subduction zone.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"575 - 596"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47022298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Statistical modeling of undertow on a natural beach","authors":"Borribunnangkun Kullachart, Takayuki Suzuki","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2122374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2122374","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT To better understand the physical mechanism of undertow, field observations were conducted during barred and planar beach states on the Hasaki coast in Japan. The two observation periods spanned 21 days from May 13 to June 2 in 2016, and 13 days from May 9 to May 22 in 2017, respectively. A horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler was used to measure the undertow velocity and water level. The observed data were statistically analyzed to investigate the characteristics of the spatial and wave-energetic distributions of the undertow exceedance probability, PE . The results reveal that when the wave energy flux level was high, the undertow velocity increased, as did its PE . By contrast, the undertow PE during a low-wave-energy level decreased with greater water depths. Here, a Weibull distribution was applied to explain PE of the undertow. The Weibull parameters: scale and shape were estimated by the combination of normalized values of the wave energy flux, relative surf zone locations, and normalized water depths, and this generalized equation was considered a statistical model for estimating undertow PE . A comparison of the statistical model against the measurement demonstrates that the model accurately predicted the undertow PE with a small error.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"489 - 505"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45957096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new dual earthquake and submarine landslide source model for the 28 September 2018 Palu (Sulawesi), Indonesia tsunami","authors":"M. Heidarzadeh, I. Mulia","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2122293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2122293","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The September 2018 Palu (Sulawesi, Indonesia) tsunami has been a heavily debated event because multiple source models of three different types have been proposed for this tsunami: (i) The Mw 7.5 earthquake, (ii) landslides, and (iii) dual earthquake and landslide. Surprisingly, all of these three types of models were reported as being successful in the literature in terms of reproducing the existing tsunami observations. This can be partly attributed to the limited observations available for this tsunami. This study is motivated by the results of a marine bathymetric survey, which identified evidence for submarine landslides within the Palu Bay. Our modeling shows that the tsunami cannot be exclusively attributed to the Mw 7.5 earthquake. Inspired by the results of the marine survey, we propose a dual source model including a submarine landslide although most of the existing models include subaerial coastal landslides. Our dual model comprises an earthquake model, which has a length of 264 km, a width of 37 km, and a slip of 0–8.5 m, combined with a submarine landslide with a length of 1.0 km, a width of 2.0 km, and a thickness of 80.0 m located at 119.823°E and −0.792°S.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"65 1","pages":"97 - 109"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43491476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nhu Y Nguyen, Duy Huy Binh Pham, Thu Thao Hoang, Van Sy Pham, Dang Dinh Kha, Tien Giang Nguyen
{"title":"A composite approach towards understanding the mechanisms and driving variables of river mouth variability: A case study of the Da Dien River mouth","authors":"Nhu Y Nguyen, Duy Huy Binh Pham, Thu Thao Hoang, Van Sy Pham, Dang Dinh Kha, Tien Giang Nguyen","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2124046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2124046","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This research aims to present a composite approach to characterizing the intra-annual and interannual variability in inlet throat width and understanding its mechanism (how, when, and why it varies). The techniques used include remote sensing imagery analysis, spectral and cross-spectral analyses, correlation analyses, and random forest variable importance. The Da Dien River mouth (DDRM), which is located in southern Central Vietnam and experiences a strong annual signal of climate regimes, was selected as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the approach. The results show that the narrowing/widening of the DDRM throat width is highly dynamic and variable under the significant dominant influence of wave height, tide and river flow, which seasonally and interannually vary according to the monsoon regime, El Niño/Southern Oscillation and sunspot number variations (better correlation with ENSO events). The overall throat width decreases during El Niño/the positive QBO phase and increases during La Niña periods/the negative QBO phase. The difference in river flow magnitudes is the main cause for the constriction/expansion of the DDRM throat width. The successful application of the study approach to the DDRM case study demonstrates its usefulness and ability to be applied to other case studies in tropical monsoon regions.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"533 - 550"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45396012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Long-term observation of current at the mouth of Tokyo Bay","authors":"S. Hosokawa, Shota Okura","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2122300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2122300","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Current patterns at the mouth of Tokyo Bay have been observed since the 1970s. However, earlier studies using short-term observations and numerical analyses were too limited in their spatiotemporal scale. This study analyzed long-term observations (over a decade) obtained using an acoustic Doppler current profiler mounted on a ferry that crosses the mouth of the bay. This long-term observation dataset revealed that tidal currents dominated at the bay mouth, and that an estuarine circulation of residual current was associated with inflow into the bay along topographic pathways formed by the Tokyo Submarine Canyon and the Uraga Channel. The water volume of the inflow was substantially greater than the discharge of the four major rivers flowing into Tokyo Bay. Although the mean residual current of the surface layer on the east side was outflow, it was variable with substantial and frequent inflow from the ocean, which might have caused an oceanic environment on the east side. Analysis of the long-term observations elucidated the spatial mean picture and temporal variability of the current patterns at the mouth of Tokyo Bay. This improved knowledge and the extended dataset will help answer remaining questions regarding the water quality in Tokyo Bay.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"648 - 659"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47981477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new predictive equation for estimating wave period of subaerial solid-block landslide-generated waves","authors":"R. Sabeti, M. Heidarzadeh","doi":"10.1080/21664250.2022.2110657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2022.2110657","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the deadly 2018 Anak Krakatau tsunami (Indonesia) and associated confusions over its modeling and generation mechanism, there has been an urgent need for further studies to improve our understanding of landslide-generated tsunamis. Two important factors in accurate modeling of landslide tsunamis are the wave period and the initial wave amplitude. Here, we apply a physical modeling approach and develop an empirical equation to predict the dominant wave period generated by solid-block subaerial landslide tsunamis. Fifty-one laboratory experiments are conducted at different water depths and using four different concrete blocks for the sliding masses. The results are consequently employed to derive a predictive equation for the wave period of solid-block subaerial landslide tsunamis. An innovation of this study is that we apply data from different scales (laboratory and field scales) to produce our predictive equation. For field data, the data from the 2018 Anak Krakatau event is used. We compared our predictive equation with other previously-published equations. To confirm the validity of our predictive equation, it is applied for the prediction of the wave period of an independent landslide tsunami event whose data was not used for the derivation of the equation.","PeriodicalId":50673,"journal":{"name":"Coastal Engineering Journal","volume":"65 1","pages":"54 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48028241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}